The Week Ahead: Aug. 5-11, 2013

August 5, 2013 02:24 AM
Untitled Document

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress on five-week summer break

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Lawmakers have headed for the exits and will not return until the week of September 9 as they take their annual five-week summer recess.

Congress will not have much legislative time during September, with the House in session only 9 days and the Senate 16. Thus far this year, the Senate has been in session 96 days and out of session 53; for the House, 102 days in session and 47 out.

Now that some key economic data pieces are in, the focus will again shift to the comments by Federal Reserve officials as they make remarks in the week ahead. The attention will be on their views regarding timing of tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program. And that focus will also take place as the economic calendar is very light in the week ahead. Monday will bring the ISM non-manufacturing survey, International Trade data arrives on Tuesday with Consumer Credit updated on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday brings the weekly update on jobless claims and Friday will see release of Wholesale Trade data. Besides the US, any developments out of China could be market movers with energy markets watching the Mideast situation for any new flare ups that could disrupt oil supplies.

For agriculture, weather will remain a focus but there will also be attention paid to private crop estimates that have started to roll out. All of those will focus on the Aug. 12 USDA Crop Production report that will bring the first survey-based estimates of US spring-planted crops. Condition ratings for corn and soybeans plus the markers on where crops are relative to reaching maturity will be important Monday afternoon in the Crop Progress report. Demand expectations on the export side are also on the rise given the recent price downturn, and that means Thursday’s Weekly Export Sales will likely see lofty expectations ahead of that data. Sandwiched in between those two reports will be the update on US ag trade. Key there will be if the trade surplus shrinks again on a monthly basis.

Monday, August 5
Markets in Canada are closed for a civic holiday.
Federal Reserve: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to state retirement administrators in Portland on the US economy.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | ISM Non-Mfg Index
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS)

Tuesday, August 6
Against a government warning that growth would slow this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates again.
Economic reports:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | International Trade
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB) | Latest US Agricultural Trade Data (ERS)

Wednesday, August 7
China's trade balance is released.
Federal Reserve: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto each give speeches.
The Bank of England issues its August inflation report and gives guidance on its intended response to data. Germany reports on industrial production statistics for June.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | Consumer Credit
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Livestock & Meat Trade Data (ERS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS)

Thursday, August 8
Markets in Turkey and Singapore, among others, are closed for celebrations relating to the end of Ramadan.
The Bank of Japan announces its interest-rate decision. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda holds a news conference.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras meets President Barack Obama.
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Economic reports: Jobless Claims
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS)

Friday, August 9
Economic reports: Wholesale Trade
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Aquaculture Trade Data (ERS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


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