The Week Ahead: Dec. 10-16, 2012

December 10, 2012 02:05 AM


via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Fiscal cliff talks | Farm bill | USDA reports | FOMC | Bernanke press event

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Continued work on fiscal cliff issues, updated estimates from USDA, and a meeting of the Federal Reserve's FOMC highlight this week in Washington.

In Congress, the House is not in session today or Friday while the Senate is in the entire week.

President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) met over the weekend,
with few details of their fiscal cliff meeting revealed. Both sides are still mostly posturing, with hard negotiations expected by mid-month. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) last week nixed the prior adjournment date of Dec. 14. Instead, the House will be in session the week of Dec. 17 to resolve "outstanding legislative items," he said, adding that "first amongst them is the so-called fiscal cliff."

Discussion about a new farm bill continues as a potential inclusion in whatever is worked out as a final package relative to fiscal cliff matter. So there could be some farm bill related developments as the week wears on.

The Senate will debate a bill (S 3254) that would extend a deposit insurance program, while the House is expected to appoint conferees on the national defense authorization bill (HR 3410).

On the economic front, attention shifts from economic data to the Federal Reserve as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes on Wednesday. The focus will be on the expected announcement the Fed will buy up more bonds starting in 2013 as Operation Twist winds down at the end of this month. Once the meeting concludes, the focus then will shift to updated Fed economic forecasts and the quarterly press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. While that will be the main focus, there are still other pieces of the economic puzzle due out, including International Trade on Tuesday, jobless claims, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and Business Inventories on Thursday, with the week wrapping up on Friday with the Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production. The fiscal cliff situation will continue as a backdrop item that could move into the forefront on any given day depending on what the players involved say about the situation. Tensions in the Mideast could also garner notice along with any developments out of Europe.

For agriculture, the focus will be on Tuesday with release of the Supply/Demand report and ag trade data. That will set the stage for trader prep for the January Annual Summary which will be the next update on the supply side of the equation. Meat trade data will come out on Wednesday with the continued focus on demand for US ag products via the Weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Otherwise, traders will continue to watch the demand side for soybeans and wheat in particular as both commodities have seen renewed demand – particularly soybeans. Weather could also be a factor, both in the Plains for wheat and South America for soybeans. Otherwise, outside markets could also play a role as an influence on price direction.

Congressional hearings will focus on tax reform and energy policy, the Volcker Rule, derivatives reform, and spectrum law implementation.

Monday, Dec. 10
Congress: Senate in, House out.
Economic reports:
Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve).
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS).

Tuesday, Dec. 11
Energy: US Energy Information Agency issues a short-term energy outlook.
Energy reports:
Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | FOMC meeting begins | International Trade.
USDA reports: Cotton, Grains, Oilseeds, and World Agricultural Production Data (FAS) | Crop Production (NASS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS) | World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WAOB) | World Agricultural Production (FAS) | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Grains: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Cotton: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Livestock and Meat Trade Data (ERS) Broiler Hatchery (NASS) Season-Average Price Forecasts (ERS) | Latest US Agricultural Trade Data

Wednesday, Dec. 12

Tax reform and energy policy: A Senate Finance Committee panel will examine tax reform and the federal energy policy. The Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure will focus on incentives to promote energy efficiency.
Dodd-Frank implementation: House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises hearing on the challenges facing the US capital markets to implement title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly mortgage applications (Labor Dept.) | MBA Purchase Applications | | FOMC meeting announcement | FOMC forecasts | Bernanke press conference | Import-Export Prices | Treasury Budget.
USDA reports: Livestock and Meat Trade Data (ERS) | Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Cotton and Wool Outlook (ERS) | Oil Crops Outlook (ERS) Rice Outlook (ERS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS)

Thursday, Dec. 13
Euro zone banking reforms top the agenda at an European Union summit.
Volcker rule: House Financial Services Committee looks at the impact of the Volcker Rule.
Derivatives: House Agriculture panel will examine derivatives reform under Dodd-Frank. The Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management will focus on how the issue affects both US and international markets.
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA).
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | Producer Price Index | Retail Sales | Business Inventories.
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Feed Outlook (ERS) | Wheat Outlook (ERS) | Dairy: World Markets and Trade (FAS)

Friday, Dec. 14
Congress: Senate in, House out.
Bank of Japan issues its December tankan business-sentiment survey.
Monthly Petroleum Statistical Report (API).
Economic reports: Consumer Price index | Industrial Production
USDA reports: Meat Price Spreads (ERS) | Turkey Hatchery (NASS) | Potato Stocks (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) Coffee: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Aquaculture Data (ERS)

Saturday, Dec. 14
Egypt votes on a draft constitution.

Sunday, Dec. 15
Japan holds a general election.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


Back to news


Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer