The Week Ahead: Dec. 30, 2013-Jan. 5, 2014

December 30, 2013 03:44 AM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress on holiday recess | Light schedule ahead

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Congress is still out on its holiday recess. The Senate returns Jan. 6; the House returns Jan. 7. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any lawmakers making news or talking to the press about issues like the farm bill and more.

Housing and manufacturing data headline the second consecutive holiday-shortened week. Things open up Monday with the Pending Home Sales Index and the Dallas Fed report, followed by the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, the Chicago PMI report and update on Consumer Confidence Tuesday. While the markets and government will be closed Wednesday, most markets will observe normal trading hours on New Year’s Eve, except an early close for the bond market. Things crank back up Thursday with the jobless claims data, PMI and ISM manufacturing updates and Construction Spending. There are no major indicators due out Friday, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will appear along with Fed Gov. Jeremy Stein, Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker and two appearances by Philadelphia Fed’s Charles Plosser. Beyond that, trade volume may remain light but with the end of the quarter and year arriving next week, that could prompt some additional volatility to appear. Any Chinese or European economic developments also could garner market reaction.

For agriculture, the holiday-interrupted week also means a Wednesday holiday. Grain and livestock futures will observe normal hours Tuesday and will be closed along with the government on Wednesday. Data releases are also light, but there could be some updates on winter wheat on Monday along with the monthly Ag Prices update. The weekly update on exports is pushed back to Friday with the Wednesday holiday. The China corn/GMO situation will continue to percolate and demand news will remain a potential market-moving factor in the light trade volume.

Monday, Dec. 30
Japan: The Tokyo Stock Exchange holds its final session of the year. The exchange is shuttered for the rest of the week.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Pending Home Sales | Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Agricultural Prices (NASS) | Egg Products (NASS)


Tuesday, Dec. 31
New Year's Eve: Many global markets are closed, including Germany, China, and Brazil. The US bond market closes early.
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: FHFA House Price Index | S&P Case-Shiller HPI | Chicago PMI | Consumer Confidence | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

New Year's Day: Most markets across the globe are closed.
New York: Bill de Blasio is inaugurated as the 109th mayor of New York City; he is the first Democrat to hold that office since David Dinkins completed his single term in 1993.
Latvia becomes the 18th country to adopt the euro.
Greece assumes the European Union presidency from Lithuania.
Russia takes over the G-8 presidency from the United Kingdom.
China reports manufacturing in its Purchasing Managers Index data.


Thursday, Jan. 2
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept) | MBA Purchase Applications | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | PMI Mfg Index | ISM Mfg Index | Construction Spending
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS)

Friday, Jan. 3

Federal Reserve: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks about transitioning from a low interest-rate environment at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Philadelphia. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also speaks at the event. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at the Maryland Bankers Association in Baltimore.
Economic reports: Motor vehicle sales
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA) | Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA)
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Export Sales (FAS) | Dairy Products (NASS)

Saturday, Jan. 4
Federal Reserve: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on a panel at the AEA annual meeting in Philadelphia, along with Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Philadelphia's Plosser.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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