The Week Ahead: Feb. 17-23, 2014

February 17, 2014 10:36 PM
Untitled Document

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress on recess | USDA Ag Outlook Forum

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

In Washington, both the House and Senate have exited Washington for the week in observance of Presidents' Day. USDA's annual Ag Outlook Forum is the key focus this week on the ag front.

Economic updates on tap this week will provide updates on manufacturing, inflation and housing, but not until after markets and the government are closed in observance of President’s Day. When things reopen Tuesday, traders will focus on the Empire State manufacturing index and the Housing Market Index. Wednesday will bring the Housing Starts and Producer Price Index reports, but the bigger focus likely will be on the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from the end of January. Key there will be if there was any debate on whether to taper the asset purchases, but with a unanimous vote for the policy state issued after the meeting, there may be little sign of any debate taking place. Thursday is the biggest day of the week when the Consumer Price Index, weekly jobless claims, PMI manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed index and Leading Indicators. The week wraps up with Existing Home Sales on Friday. There are also a couple of Fed appears scheduled so far, with St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard speaking Wednesday and Friday with San Francisco Fed’s John Williams also speaking on Wednesday. Beyond that, any economic updates out of China and Europe could impact markets along with additional earnings data. of China and Europe could impact markets along with additional earnings data.

For agriculture, the Monday holiday will mean that weekly updates on Grain Inspections and Export Sales will be delayed a day – to Tuesday and Friday. But the big attention getter will be the USDA Outlook Forum held near Washington, DC. The main watch point will be on the economic update from Chief Economist Joe Glauber in which he typically updates USDA’s acreage forecasts from the baseline projections. And Glauber has already said that changes are in store. In addition to Glauber’s Thursday remarks, traders may also take note of the updated forecast for the value of US ag exports. The main item for Friday from the Outlook Forum will be the detailed updated Supply/Demand info released by USDA analysts for the 2014 crop year.

Monday, Feb. 17
US markets and gov't closed for Presidents' Day.
European Union and US hold talks to discuss progress toward a trans-Atlantic free-trade agreement
Japan releases fourth-quarter data on gross domestic product.

Tuesday, Feb. 18
Bank of Japan announces monetary policy after a two-day meeting.
Iran: Talks resume in Austria between Iran, the US, and other world powers to reach a long-term nuclear deal.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Empire State Mfg Survey | Treasury International Capital | Housing Market Index
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS)

Wednesday, Feb. 19
Federal Reserve: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Washington. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speech in New York.
The North American Leaders’ Summit takes place in Toluca, Mexico. The US and Mexican presidents are expected and the leaders will discuss a range of issues such as economic competitiveness, trade and investment, and citizen security.
Economic reports: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | Housing Starts | FOMC Minutes | Producer Price Index | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Wheat Data (ERS)

Thursday, Feb. 20
Institute of Internal Finance/G20 conference in Australia through Friday.
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept) | Consumer Price Index | PMI Manufacturing Index Flash | Philadelphia Fed Survey | Leading Indicators
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA) | Weekly National Petroleum Report (API) | Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Outlook for US Agricultural Trade (ERS) | Agricultural Outlook Forum (ERS) | 2012 Census of Agriculture - Preliminary (NASS) | Milk Production (NASS) | Livestock Slaughter (NASS) | US and Canadian Hogs (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) Announcement of Advanced Prices and Pricing Factors (AMS) | US and Canadian Cattle and Sheep (NASS) | Catfish Production (NASS) | Meat Price Spreads (ERS)

Friday, Feb. 21

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Jo White delivers the keynote speech at the Practicing Law Institute conference in Washington.
Federal Reserve: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard gives a presentation on the US economy and monetary policy.
Economic reports: Existing Home Sales
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Cold Storage – Annual (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Cattle on Feed (NASS) | Cold Storage (NASS)

Saturday, Feb. 22
G20 finance ministers, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, meet in Sydney, Australia.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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