The Week Ahead: Jan. 20-26, 2014

January 18, 2014 07:37 PM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress returns Jan. 27 | Farm bill work continues | Agenda when lawmakers return

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

The House and Senate are on a one-week recess and will return Jan. 27.

The Senate agenda ahead includes work on an extension of unemployment insurance benefits and a flood insurance bill (S 1926). The FY 2014 omnibus spending measure, which President Obama signed into law Jan. 17, included language to postpone for several months some of the flood insurance rate hikes triggered by reforms passed in 2012. The Senate bill delays those reforms for four years. Passage of the bill is expected, as the measure has bipartisan support.

Release of new farm bill conference report language (HR 2642) is expected sometime during the week of Jan. 27, with votes in the House and Senate chambers either the last week of January or the first full week of February.

Also possible is action on a final conference agreements on water resources (WRDA). Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said late Jan. 16 that she remains confident that she and other conferees will soon be able to announce a deal on the reauthorization of the Water Resources Development Act (HR 3080).

Awaiting lawmakers when they return is a long list of nominees for executive branch and judiciary posts who were recently cleared in committee. Among them are many of President Barack Obama's picks to serve as deputy secretaries at Cabinet agencies.

President Obama's State of the Union address is Jan. 28.

Senate Democrats, who met with Obama at the White House Jan. 15, also plan to bring up an increase in the minimum wage early in the year. The most likely Senate vehicle is Harkin's bill (S 1737) to increase the minimum wage gradually from $7.25 to $10.10 and eventually index it to inflation.

Not a lot of economic data will flow into the market on the holiday-shortened week ahead. Markets and the government are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday, picking up action on Tuesday. But the economic data releases this week are all concentrated on Thursday – Jobless Claims, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, Existing Home Sales, FHFA Home Price Index and Leading Indicators. But there will be other economic updates that markets will watch closely, including GDP data out of China due on the US holiday Monday. There are no Federal Reserve speakers on tap as the blackout arrives before the next FOMC meeting which is Jan. 28-29. European economic data updates could also be market factors as the week wears on. And the release of corporate earnings data will most likely overshadow any economic data for the week.

For agriculture, the Monday holiday moves back the weekly updates, with Grain Inspections arriving on Tuesday and Weekly Export Sales on Friday morning. But there will be other updates from USDA, including Cold Storage on Wednesday and Cattle on Feed and the food price update both out on Friday. Markets will continue to watch demand news and any new developments out of China on the GMO situation. Foreign weather developments also could garner attention, particularly in South America.

Monday, Jan. 20
US markets and gov't closed for honoring the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.
International Labor Organization releases its annual report on global employment trends.
China announces its annual gross domestic product for 2013.
Energy: Abu Dhabi hosts the World Future Energy Summit, International Water Summit and the Abu Dhabi International Renewable Energy Conference through the 22nd.

Tuesday, Jan. 21
International Monetary Fund is expected to lift its 2014 economic-growth forecast when it updates its World Economic Outlook report.
Bank of Japan holds a monetary-policy meeting through Wednesday.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission's technology advisory council meets to discuss oversight of swap volume and price data in Washington.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve)
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Chickens and Eggs (NASS) | Wheat Data (ERS) | Vegetables and Pulses Data (ERS) | Fruit and Tree Nut Data (ERS)

Wednesday, Jan. 22
Syria peace talks begin in Switzerland.
European Central Bank Governing Council meets in Frankfurt.
Bank of Canada announces its decision on rates.
Economic reports: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Cold Storage (NASS)


Thursday, Jan. 23
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept) | FHFA House Price Index | PMI Manufacturing Index Flash | | Existing Home Sales
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA) | Weekly National Petroleum Report (API) | Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Milk Production (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Livestock Slaughter (NASS) | Poultry Slaughter (NASS) | Citrus: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | N. American Potatoes (NASS) | Announcement of Advanced Prices and Pricing Factors (AMS)

Friday, Jan. 24

USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Cattle on Feed (NASS) | Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses (NASS) | Food Price Outlook (ERS)


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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