The Week Ahead: July 1-7, 2013

June 30, 2013 10:43 PM
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via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress on recess | Employment report Friday

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Both the House and Senate are on their July 4 break for the week. They will return Monday, July 8.

The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold its first hearing on the 2013 reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on July 17. In a statement June 28, the committee said the session would be the first in a series of hearings on the topic. Witnesses have not been announced, but the committee said the hearing would include the views of “market participants and stakeholders” and would address the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC “generally.” The House Agriculture Committee has already held its first hearing to address reauthorization.

The holiday-shortened week ahead will still have some important economic data, with updates on manufacturing via the PMI and ISM data on Monday along with construction spending. Tuesday will see an update on factory activity with Wednesday’s schedule containing ADP private sector jobs data, International Trade and the ISM non-manufacturing index. Thursday is the Independence Day holiday and the week wraps up with a biggie – the June Employment report and the weekly jobless claims arrives that day due to the holiday. Otherwise, there are more Fed officials on tap to speak and they seem likely to keep focusing on a view that markets misread the Fed regarding when they may pull back their economic stimulus efforts. Gold futures will pay close attention, after suffering their worst decline ever for the second quarter of the year.

For agriculture, traders will likely shift their eyes to the skies and see if there are weather conditions that will change their view from one of thinking rain makes grain. Weekly Crop Progress data will be watched Monday for signs of whether rain is having more impacts than just planting delays and the monthly ag trade update arrives Wednesday. Thursday’s holiday will have a couple of impacts. First, it will temper market volume and second, it will push the weekly export update from USDA to Friday morning. But weather and demand should remain the main watch points.

Monday, July 1
Markets are closed in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Canada, among others.
Iran sanctions: A US ban begins on the transfer of any precious metals, including gold, to the Iranian government and private institutions and citizens.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | PMI Mfg Index | ISM Mfg Index | Construction Spending
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS)

Tuesday, July 2
Federal Reserve:
The Fed holds an open meeting on banking rules and proposed changes. Meanwhile, New York Fed President William Dudley speaks about the outlook for the US and regional economies at a Business Council of Fairfield, Conn., lunch.
Secretary of State John Kerry participates in the Asean regional forum.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | Motor Vehicle Sales | Factory Orders
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB)

Wednesday, July 3
MF Global, whose former CEO Jon Corzine was charged with overseeing the misuse of $100 billion of customer funds, seeks bankruptcy-court approval for a settlement with JPMorgan Chase in which customers would be reimbursed $100 million.
Markets: US equity markets close early in advance of the July 4 holiday.
Europe: German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts a meeting of European leaders on the youth unemployment crisis.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | ADP Employment | ISM Non-Mfg Index | | Challenger Job-Cut Report | International Trade
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Dairy Products (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Announcement of Advance Class and Component Prices (AMS) | Latest Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS)

Thursday, July 4

Markets are closed in the US, in observance of Independence Day.
European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady, as is the Bank of England, whose new chief, Mark Carney, presides over his first meeting.
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks, followed by a BOJ report on the regional economy.

Friday, July 5
Economic reports: Employment | Jobless Claims
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Livestock & Meat Trade Data (ERS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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