The Week Ahead: July 2-8, 2012

July 2, 2012 02:54 AM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Employment situation | Crop progress

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Both the House and Senate are off again this week, this time for the July Fourth recess. They will return on July 9 for what is expected to be a big week for the House, with a vote to repeal the health care reform law and at least on the schedule, a markup of a new farm bill by the House Agriculture Committee.

Economic reports on tap ahead include Factory Orders on Tuesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the big report of the week on Friday – the Employment Situation.

For agriculture, weather will be the key. Also, look for a flurry of private-sector yield report estimates to reflect the lingering drought and torrid temperatures. Recent weather will again have traders looking for another downturn in the corn and soybean condition ratings in today's Crop Progress report. With rising prices, demand news will start to take on even more importance. With the Wednesday holiday, USDA's Export Sales report will be issued Friday morning, a day later than usual.

Note: The Washington, D.C. area experienced a major electrical outage due to significant and widespread winds late Friday into Saturday morning. Federal agencies in the Washington, DC, area are open and employees have the option for unscheduled leave or unscheduled telework. Despite ongoing power outages, USDA contacts advise that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be released as scheduled as USDA’s Washington buildings have power.

Major reports and events on tap this week include:

Monday, July 2
Markets closed in Canada, Hong Kong, Chile, and Venezuela.
IMF fact-finding mission travels to Greece to begin talks on possible changes to an international loan.
Japan: Bank of Japan releases its tankan business-sentiment survey for June.
World Bank:
Jim Yong Kim begins work as president of the World Bank at the development organization's Washington headquarters, in succession to Robert Zoellick.
European Parliament meets in plenary session in Strasbourg (until July 5).
Economic reports:
Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | ISM Mfg Index | Construction Spending
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS).

Tuesday, July 3
US regulators release details of the biggest banks' resolution strategies, known as living wills.
IMF Chief Christine Lagarde discusses the fund's outlook on the US economy.
Iran, major powers hold a technical follow-up on failed nuclear talks.
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | Factory Orders
USDA reports: Dairy Products (NASS)

Wednesday, July 4
Independence Day holiday in the US, all markets are closed.
Leaders of Germany and Italy discuss the EU summit.

Thursday, July 5
European Central Bank (ECB) meets amid expectations it will cut the policy rate and reduce the deposit rate to zero.
UN reports on investment: The annual World Investment Report is published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The report surveys global investment trends and suggests how foreign investment can be directed to developing countries to create jobs and stable growth.
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA) | Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | ADP Employment Report | ISM Non-Mfg Index
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS)

Friday, July 6

ECB Chairman Mario Draghi speaks at an economic conference
Economic reports: Employment
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts-Ann. | Mink (NASS).


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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