The Week Ahead: Nov. 19-25, 2012

November 19, 2012 02:17 AM
Untitled Document

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress again on recess | Bernanke event | Housing data focus | Food price forecasts

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Another holiday-shortened week is on tap with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. That will condense action mostly into the first three days of the week.

Even though the government and markets will be open on Friday, trading volume will be minimal and there are no major economic updates out that day. But leading up to Thanksgiving, there will be plenty for markets to mull.

Housing data hits this week, with Existing Home Sales on Monday along with the Housing Market Index, while Tuesday will bring Housing Starts data. Wednesday will feature the weekly initial jobless claims data which will continue to show Sandy’s impacts, the PMI manufacturing index comes out that day along with Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators.

The markets will continue to focus on fiscal cliff issues and keep an eye on foreign developments as tensions continue high in the Mideast.

For agriculture, Monday will bring the Crop Progress update with a lull in report activity until Friday. Unlike other sectors, agriculture reports on Friday will be important via the Weekly Export Sales report and USDA will update its food price forecast. Traders will remain focused on the Chinese demand situation in the wake of reports of their canceling some US soybean purchases even though many say the buys will likely be rebooked at lower prices. Otherwise, the outside markets will still be a factor each day.

Lame-duck lawmakers are mostly gone from Washington and will not return until after Thanksgiving -- the Senate will reconvene for legislative business on Monday, Nov. 26, while the House will return on Tuesday, Nov. 27.

Calendar of key events and reports:

Monday, Nov. 19
President Obama on a three-day tour of southeast Asia, becomes the first serving US president to visit Myanmar.
Mexico: Markets closed.
Islamic grouping meets: The D8 economic co-operation group of Islamic countries holds a summit in Islamabad, Pakistan (until November 22). The member nations are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Existing Home Sales | Housing Market Index.
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Milk Production (NASS) | Crop Progress (NASS)

Tuesday, Nov. 20
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Economic Club of New York at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, a dissenter on the FOMC, speaks about monetary policy.
Bank of Japan is not seen loosening monetary conditions, despite remarks from the front-runner in next month's elections that he wants the bank to consider below-zero interest rates.
Brazil: Markets closed.
Chinese leader in Thailand: Wen Jiabao, the outgoing premier of China, begins a two-day official visit to Thailand.
Glencore and Xstrata holders vote on their proposed $65 billion merger. Approval seems likely, given that it won backing from Xstrata's second-biggest shareholder, Qatar Holding.
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: Housing StartsICSC-Goldman Store Sales.
USDA reports: Catfish Processing (NASS) | Sugar: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Cotton and Wool Yearbook Data tables (ERS) | Catfish Feed Deliveries (NASS)

Wednesday, Nov. 21
Natural gas exporters meet: Energy ministers from the big natural gas suppliers meet in Equatorial Guinea for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA) | Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA).
Economic reports: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | PMI Manufacturing Index Flash | Consumer Sentiment | Leading Indicators.
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Cold Storage (NASS) | Wheat Data (ERS) | Feed Grains Database (ERS)

Thursday, Nov. 22
Markets closed in US: Thanksgiving Holiday.
European Union's seven-year budget tops the agenda as the EU summit begins. Britain threatens to veto the $1 trillion budget unless it includes steep spending cuts. France threatens to reject the budget because of proposed agricultural subsidy cuts.

Friday, Nov. 23
US equity and fixed-income markets close early, at 1 p.m. ET. Markets close in Japan for Labor Thanksgiving Day; grain futures close at 1 pm ET; livestock futures close at 1:15 pm ET.
‘Black Friday’ sales: US retailers brace themselves for “Black Friday” – the day after Thanksgiving, which is one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Some retailers announced they would begin selling on Thanksgiving Day.
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS) | Livestock Slaughter (NASS) | Food Price Outlook (ERS) | Chickens and Eggs (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS).

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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