The Week Ahead: Nov. 25-Dec. 1, 2013

November 25, 2013 02:05 AM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress on holiday recess | Farm bill principals to telecommute

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Both the House and Senate are on their Thanksgiving break. The Senate returns Dec. 9. The House returns Dec. 2., but there are still expected to be at least phone conversations between the four principals in the farm bill situation. The House is scheduled end the 2013 session on Dec. 13. The Senate is scheduled to be in session through Dec. 20.

When the Senate returns, the list of possible action includes the Department of Defense authorization bill (S 1197), new sanctions on Iran, and US intelligence programs. Also up for possible consideration is a bill to raise the minimum wage and, possibly, a measure to address problems with Affordable Care Act implementation.

The Senate also is set to consider several of President Barack Obama's key nominees, including Janet Yellen to be chairman of the Federal Reserve System and Jeh Johnson to serve as the head of the Department of Homeland Security. Action on these and other nominees will be on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) recent move to change the Senate's filibuster rule and permit nominees to be approved by a simple majority.

Other possible items for the Senate include a plan to renew Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and any conference agreements on the FY 2014 budget, the farm bill (HR 2642) rewrite, and the reauthorization of a water infrastructure bill (HR 3080).

For a holiday-shortened week there are still a slew of economic updates, with several on the US housing market. Monday opens with the Pending Home Sales update and the Dallas Fed report. Tuesday will bring the Housing Starts data along with the FHFA Home Price Index and S&P Case Shiller home price reading. Also due out that day are figures on Consumer Confidence and manufacturing from the Richmond Federal Reserve. Wednesday will see the release of Durable Goods, weekly Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed activity report and Chicago PMI update, Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators. Markets and the government are of course closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and markets will have an abbreviated trading session to wrap up the week on Friday. That’s typically a low-volume day of trade but that doesn’t mean markets won’t be volatile. There are no Fed appearances currently scheduled but markets will still be trying to handicap what the Fed will or won’t do with each new piece of economic news. Also, any data out of Europe or China has the potential to move US markets as well.

For agriculture, the week opens with what is scheduled to be the final Crop Progress update of the season. USDA will also issue its update on US farm income, with the latest food price forecasts due out the day before Thanksgiving. With the Thursday holiday, that means the Weekly Export Sales report will come out on Friday morning, one of the few pieces of data that will be released on that day. Plus, grain and livestock markets will observe shortened trading hours and close at midday. As with other markets, volume will likely be low as many traders will opt to clear out for a long holiday weekend. Demand news is always a potential market factor whether it is confirmation from USDA of sales or if it is results of tenders that aren’t required to be reported to USDA.

Monday, Nov. 25
Markets in Argentina are closed.
International conference:
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a Europlace International Forum in Tokyo. Other speakers include Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, and Benoît Coeuré, European Central Bank executive board member.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Pending Home Sales Index | Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | Poultry Slaughter (NASS)

Tuesday, Nov. 26
Portugal's Parliament votes on the government's 2014 austerity budget.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | Housing Starts | FHFA House Price Index | S&P Case-Shiller HPI | | Consumer Confidence | Richmond Fed Mfg Index
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB) | Farm Sector & Household Income Forecast (ERS) | N. American Potatoes (NASS) | Monthly Milk Cost of Production (ERS) | Dairy Data (ERS) | Livestock & Meat Domestic Data (ERS)

Wednesday, Nov. 27
Italian Senate votes on whether to expel former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi over a tax-fraud conviction.
Shale gas: Some 750 industry experts gather for the Shale Gas World conference in Warsaw (to November 28) to analyze the economic viability of shale exploration, stakeholder relations and technical challenges of production.
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA) | Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA)
Economic reports: MBA Purchase Applications | Durable Goods Orders | Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Chicago PMI | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Consumer Sentiment | Leading Indicators
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Agricultural Prices (NASS) | Peanut Stocks & Processing (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Food Price Outlook (ERS)

Thursday, Nov. 28
US holiday: Thanksgiving is celebrated. All markets are closed.
World Economic Forum holds a roundtable in Spain.
Bank of England publishes its twice yearly financial stability report.

Friday, Nov. 29
US markets close at 1 p.m. ET, in observance of Thanksgiving.
Black Friday, traditional kickoff for holiday shopping season.
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Export Sales (FAS) | Egg Products (NASS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.



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