The Week Ahead: Nov. 29-Dec. 2, 2012

November 25, 2012 08:02 PM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress returns

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A full week ahead in Washington with lawmakers returning (Senate on Monday and the House on Tuesday) and another meeting is set to take place among 'fiscal cliff' major players. Meanwhile, the fate of the farm bill timeline should be better known as fiscal talks continue – with sources saying a final decision should be evident by the end of the first week of December on whether the farm bill will be part of an end-of-year package, or bumped into 2013.

The pace of economic data picks up with the Dallas Fed manufacturing report on Monday. Durable Goods orders and Consumer Confidence figures come on Tuesday with New Home Sales Wednesday morning followed by the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon. GDP data on Thursday will be the first report since Hurricane Sandy, but it may not show much of the impact. However, the weekly jobless claims data will continue to show effects of the storm. Pending Home Sales are also out that day. Friday will bring the update on Personal Income and Outlays. For markets, while data will be of note, the situation in Europe remains a focal point as countries wrestle with budget issues and potential bailouts for some nations. And the US fiscal cliff issues remain as a backdrop but can easily push to center stage.

For agriculture, Monday is scheduled to bring the last update of winter wheat conditions via the final scheduled release of the Crop Progress report (until April) along with weekly Grain Inspections. Tuesday will see USDA release its update for farm income and Thursday brings not only the Weekly Export Sales report but also the quarterly update on the value of US ag exports. Traders will continue to watch the outside markets and any new developments on the foreign supply or export side, particularly in the Black Sea region and South America.

Lawmakers will return their focus to fiscal cliff issues and traders will continue to watch developments on that front and have shown they will react to even hints of progress or disagreement.

The House will take up legislation (HR 6429) that would both expand visas for foreign science and technology students and make it easier for those with green cards to bring their immediate families to the United States. There are some 80,000 of these family-based green cards allocated every year, but there are currently about 322,000 husbands, wives and children waiting in this category and on average people must wait more than two years to be reunited with their families. In that past that wait could be as long as six years, according to The Associated Press. The House proposal would allow family members to come to the U.S. one year after they apply for their green cards, but they wouldn't be able to work until they actually got the card. It applies to the families of green card holders who marry after getting their residency permits.

The Senate plans to take up to two roll call votes on the Sportsmen's Act (S 3525), which would expand hunters' access to public lands.

Monday, Nov. 26
Climate change: United Nations hosts a conference on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol in Doha, Qatar.
Euro zone finance ministers meet to discuss the debt situation in Greece.
Markets closed in Argentina.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | Poultry Slaughter (NASS) | Monthly Milk Cost of Production (ERS)

Tuesday, Nov. 27
President Barack Obama hosts Mexican President-elect Enrique Peña Nieta in Washington.
Portugal's Parliament votes on the budget for 2013.
Federal Reserve: Several Fed presidents, including Richard Fisher and Dennis Lockhart, speak at a Levy Economics Institute confab on financial instability in Berlin.
Fiscal deficit: Harvard economist Martin Feldstein addresses the National Economists Club on "dealing with the fiscal deficit."
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: Durable Goods Orders | S&P Case-Shiller HPI | Consumer Confidence | FHFA House Price Index | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
USDA reports: Farm Income and Costs (ERS)

Wednesday, Nov. 28

Euro zone finance ministers are expected to hold a news conference.
US global food security efforts: Subcommittee hearing. Senate Foreign Relations — Subcommittee on International Development and Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs and International Environmental Protection
Subcommittee Hearing.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | New Home Sales | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | Beige Book
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Peanut Stocks and Processing (NASS)

Thursday, Nov. 29

Federal Reserve: Dallas Fed's Fisher speaks at a conference on monetary and fiscal challenges in the US and euro area in Frankfurt.
Clean Air Act Implementation: Subcommittee hearing. House Energy and Commerce — Subcommittee on Energy and Power.
Future of money: Subcommittee hearing. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA).
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept) | GDP | Pending Home Sales Index | KC Mfg Index.
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Outlook for US Agricultural Trade (ERS)

Friday, Nov. 30

US energy and R&D: Subcommittee hearing. House Science, Space and Technology — Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.
Economic reports: Personal Income and Outlays | Chicago PMI
USDA reports: N. American Potatoes (NASS) | Agricultural Prices (NASS) | Egg Products (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS)


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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