The Week Ahead: Nov. 4-10, 2013

November 4, 2013 02:08 AM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Employment report and key USDA reports come Friday

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

In Washington, it’s a relatively quiet week with the House out. The Senate Ag Committee has a hearing set for Tuesday on the wildfires situation. And while the House is out (returning Nov. 12), Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said lawmakers would likely be at least discussing farm bill matters in the coming week.

The Senate may spend most of the legislative week debating legislation (S 815) to prohibit employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity and considering several of President Barack Obama's pending nominations. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) also could again call up the nomination of Rep. Mel Watt (D-N.C.) to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which was blocked last week on a procedural vote. Reid and other senators have said the Senate would reconsider the Watt vote.

Several Senate committees will hold meetings on various issues, including the Affordable Care Act, the housing finance system, and the outlook of the aviation industry. The key hearing comes Wednesday on the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and the performance of the health insurance marketplace website. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius will testify at the hearing.

The key October Employment report is the headliner of economic data for the week, and arrives on Friday, Nov. 8, one week later than previously scheduled. Ahead of that release there will be other updates as government agencies catch up from the partial government shutdown. Monday will see Factory Orders data released, with the ISM non-manufacturing index due out Tuesday. Thursday will bring the next reading on the overall US economy via GDP data and the weekly jobless claims release is also out that day. Besides the October jobs data Friday, Personal income and Outlays information is also on tap. As we are past the FOMC blackout period, the number of Fed speakers is increasing. Fed Gov. Powell and Boston Fed’s Rosengren are on tap Monday, with Richmond Fed’s Lacker and San Francisco’s Williams on tap for Wednesday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on Friday; Williams also speaks on Friday with Gov. Stein set to make remarks Thursday. Otherwise, traders will keep their eye on any Chinese or euro zone updates, with the European Central Bank meeting this week as well, with a potential interest rate decline possibly on their agenda.

For agriculture, much like things on the economic side, Friday looms large with the Crop Production and Supply/Demand updates due to be released, the first such updates since September. Monday’s Crop Progress report will be focused on to see how sales stack up for a single week now that things are caught up. The update on food prices from USDA is due on Tuesday, also delayed by the government shutdown. But Friday will remain the focus with most expecting a set of higher corn and soybean crop pegs. Weather as it relates to harvest and winter planting and development will also be key.

Monday, Nov. 4
Markets in Japan are closed.
Egypt: Incitement trial of ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi starts.
Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell opening speech to San Francisco Fed's Asia Economic Policy Conference, in San Francisco. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speech on the economic outlook in Boston.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Factory Orders
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Dairy Products (NASS) | Crop Progress (NASS).

Tuesday, Nov. 5
New Yorkers go to the polls to choose a new mayor.
MF Global customers could recover 100%, or $305 million, of their funds if a bankruptcy judge approves it.
Federal Reserve: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech on workforce development in Charlotte, North Carolina. San Francisco Fed President John Williams briefing at San Francisco Fed's Asia Economic Policy Conference, in San Francisco.
Housing finance: Committee hearing. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Topic: Protecting Small Lender Access to the Secondary Mortgage Market.
Forests and wildfires: Committee hearing. Senate Agriculture Committee.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | | ISM Non-Mfg Index |
USDA reports: Food Price Outlook (ERS) | Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (WAOB) | Monthly Milk Cost of Production (ERS)

Wednesday, Nov. 6
Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Mary Jo White gives a keynote speech at a regulation event.
Monsanto: The first of a two-day Monsanto event held once every two years.
Federal Reserve: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speech on housing and the economy, in Columbus, Ohio.
Health insurance exchanges: Committee hearing. Senate Finance Committee. Witness: Kathleen Sebelius - secretary of Health and Human Services.
America Competes Act: Committee hearing. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing to examine the America Creating Opportunities to Meaningfully Promote Excellence in Technology, Education, and Science Act regarding on scientific research and the economy.
Greenhouse gases: The World Meteorological Organization is expected to release the annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin in Geneva. The report will look at greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly mortgage applications (Labor Dept.) | Leading Indicators | MBA Purchase Applications
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS)


Thursday, Nov. 7
European Central Bank (ECB) meets among some conjecture they may cut rates, but most think that is unlikely.
Iran: Six world powers meet with Iran for talks on its nuclear program.
Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein speech at Chicago Fed's International Banking Conference on shadow banking.
Housing finance: Committee hearing. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Topic: Essential Elements to Provide Affordable Options for Housing.
Sequestration and defense: Committee hearing. Senate Armed Services Committee.
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | GDP | Consumer Credit
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS).


Friday, Nov. 8
European Union holds a summit with South Korea.
Federal Reserve: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speech on the economic outlook in Oxford, Mississippi. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on panel at IMF discussing financial crisis panic, in Washington. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speech on the economy and monetary policy in Los Angeles.
Economic reports: Employment | Personal Income and Outlays | Consumer Sentiment
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | World Agricultural Production (FAS) | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Grains: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Cotton, Grains, Oilseeds, and World Agricultural Production Data (FAS) | WASDE (WAOB) | Cotton: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Crop Production (NASS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS) | Season Average Price Forecast (ERS)


Saturday, Nov. 9
The Chinese Communist Party begins its third plenary session. President Xi Jinping pushes ahead with his reform agenda with an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist party in Beijing, focusing on financial and tax reforms, household registration and quickening urbanization through land reform. Historically, the third plenums have been a springboard for economic change.
Iran hosts Japan: Fumio Kishida, Japanese foreign Minister, is to meet his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif to discuss the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Japan is hoping to act as a mediator between Tehran and the west. Japan has sharply reduced crude oil imports from Iran, in step with western economic sanctions. Until November 11.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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