The Week Ahead: Oct. 14-20, 2013

October 13, 2013 11:42 PM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Budget, debt limit hike talks continue, with focus in Senate | Farm bill conference -- finally

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

The week opens with a holiday which means the government is closed anyway. Weekend negotiations on the government shutdown showed no clear signal of an agreement at hand.

Even if the government is reopened, it not clear how many US economic indicators could be released. The schedule ahead is to include the Empire State Manufacturing index on Tuesday, with Wednesday scheduled to bring the Consumer Price Index and Housing Market Index. The Beige Book recap from the Fed will be released on Wednesday whether the government is shut down or not. Thursday is scheduled to see release of Housing Starts, weekly jobless claims, Industrial Production and the Philadelphia Fed survey. Friday’s only scheduled economic update is Leading Indicators.

There are a host of Federal Reserve speakers this week, including Fed Chairman Bernanke on Monday, Fed bank presidents from New York, San Francisco and Dallas on Tuesday, with Dallas Fed’s Fisher also speaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Chicago Fed’s Evans and Kansas Fed’s George are on the schedule Thursday along with Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota. The week closes out with Fed Governors Tarullo and Stein to speak along with the Chicago Fed president. But markets will remain focused on the government situation.

For agriculture, the focus will be on the announcement of House farm bill conferees finally being officially announced and conference action to resolve some major differences. Like with other economic reports, the USDA data may or may not be released as scheduled. Friday would potentially bring the Weekly Export Sales data but it is no guarantee that even if the government reopens that the data would still be able to be released.

In Congress, only a few congressional committees are set to meet. The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee will meet on the effects of the government shutdown on the nation's small companies and two House committees will hold a hearing on the National Park Service's implementation of the government shutdown.

Monday, Oct. 14
US gov't holiday. The US bond market closes for Columbus Day. Also closed: Canada, Hong Kong, and Japan.
China issues some key inflation and sales statistics: Rising food prices in September are likely to have pushed the CPI to 2.8 percent, while the producer price index may have fallen 1.7 percent on modest corrections, especially in minerals, according to some pre-report estimates.
Federal Reserve: Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speaks about Mexican central-bank independence.
Economic reports: Most scheduled economic statistics for this week from the Labor and Commerce departments are delayed unless the government reopens. Some backlog data, including the jobs report, could come out this week if a deal is reached – but even if the gov't reopens, officials will take time to determine what can be released and
Energy reports: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced Oct. 11 that it will furlough staff and cease operations for the duration of the government shutdown. Data releases and analyses will not be published during the closure, and the administration's website and social media channels will not be updated, the agency said. The EIA is the independent statistical arm of the Energy Department. "EIA will strive to restore service as quickly as possible after EIA reopens," the agency said. "The schedules for resumption of data releases and reports will be determined after the furlough period is over." The EIA said survey respondents should continue to submit data, which will be processed after the furlough period is over. The Energy Department, which unlike some agencies is allowed to use unspent funds from previous fiscal years for its operations, is expected to be able to operate for several weeks during the shutdown. Officials at the department "don't know" the exact point in time the DOE would need to shut down completely because of a lack of funding.
USDA reports:
As long as the government remains closed, virtually all USDA reports will not be released. And when the government does reopen, it will take a few days for NASS and other officials to determine the schedule ahead for releasing any prior reports (if they can) and future reports.

Tuesday, Oct. 15
Federal Reserve: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley speech to Bank of Mexico conference in Mexico City. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speech on the economy in San Francisco. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on the outlook and monetary policy to NYU Money Marketeers in New York.
UN Security Council negotiators meet with those from Iran to discuss concerns over its nuclear program. s its annual update of the nation's long-term budget outlook.
Greece: Amid reports that the Greek economy is seen as improving a bit, its prime minister gives a speech in Brussels.
Securities & Exchange (SEC) Chair Mary Jo White speaks at the National Association of Corporate Directors Leadership conference.
Federal government shutdown and small business: Committee hearing. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee.

Wednesday, Oct. 16
Federal Reserve: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher debates breaking up big banks, in New York.
Economic reports: The Fed issues its beige book regional survey of economic activity.

Thursday, Oct. 17
Debt limit date: Today is the date Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said is when the US will run out of cash to pay its debt unless the borrowing limit is raised.
Federal Reserve: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the Economic Club of New York. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech on economy and monetary policy in Madison, Wisconsin. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George speech on the economy in Oklahoma City. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Narayana Kocherlakota speech on on monetary policy in Butte, Montana.
Economic reports: Jobless claims


Friday, Oct. 18
Federal Reserve: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech on economy and monetary policy in Chicago. Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein speech on managing financial imbalances in Boston.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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