The Week Ahead: Sept. 10-16, 2012

September 10, 2012 01:38 AM
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via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

FOMC meeting | Bernanke | USDA estimates | Congress returns

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

A major Federal Reserve meeting with a press event by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, important USDA updated estimates of key US crops, and the return of Congress are the highlights this week.

The economic schedule this week is loaded with more key items, including International Trade on Tuesday, weekly Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Friday will bring updates via the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. But the biggest attention-getter will be the Thursday wrap-up of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That session looms large following this week’s jobs data. Also, the FOMC meeting comes with updated economic forecasts from FOMC members, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has his quarterly news conference in which he’ll be asked to explain what the Fed does – or doesn’t do to help the economy.  The situation in Europe will remain a focus after the European Central Bank this Thursday announced efforts to buy government bonds. But even before US trading starts for the week, there is a barrage of economic data due out of China on Sunday which will shape how trading in financial markets starts for the week.

For agriculture, the big focus will be on the Wednesday USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports with the latest update of the US corn and soybean crops in particular. Those reports will be key as they provide the next survey-based look at crops. The week opens with Crop Progress which will be watched for the level of harvest progress in the latest week and the Weekly Export Sales report returns to its usual Thursday release. Also out next week: Updated US ag trade figures. Weather is still a factor, but now the focus is somewhat split – moisture is needed in areas of winter wheat country for the yet-to-be-seeded crop there while in the Corn Belt, dry conditions will be hoped for relative to crops that are ready to harvest. Traders will also intently watch for activity on exports out of the Black Sea region and will take any aggressive sales done now as a sign that demand for US wheat could rise later in this marketing year.

Lawmakers return from their extended August break but the efforts to get a new farm bill approved by both chambers appear to be slim given the limited number of days remaining before lawmakers head for the exits to hit the campaign trail. But farm group lobbyists are going to try their best to change that crystal ball when they hold various press events in the coming week.

Monday, Sept. 10
Congress returns from the long summer recess.
Economic reports:
Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Consumer Credit.
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS).

Tuesday, Sept. 11
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | International Trade.
USDA reports: Aquaculture Data (ERS) | Latest US Agricultural Trade Data (ERS).

Wednesday, Sept. 12
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly mortgage applications (Labor Dept.) | MBA Purchase Applications | FOMC meeting begins | Wholesale Trade.
USDA reports: Cotton, Grains, Oilseeds, and World Agricultural Production Data (FAS) | Crop Production (NASS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS) | World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WAOB) | World Agricultural Production (FAS) | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Grains: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Cotton: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Livestock and Meat Trade Data (ERS) Broiler Hatchery (NASS) Season-Average Price Forecasts (ERS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS).

Thursday, Sept. 13
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA).
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | Producer Price Index | FOMC meeting announcement | Bernanke press conference | Treasury Budget.
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Cotton and Wool Outlook (ERS) | Rice Outlook (ERS) Oil Crops Outlook (ERS).

Friday, Sept. 14
Energy: Monthly Petroleum Statistical Report (API).
Economic reports: Consumer Price index | Retail Sales | Industrial Production | Consumer Sentiment | Business Inventories.
USDA reports: Wheat Outlook (ERS) | Meat Price Spreads (ERS) | Feed Outlook (ERS) | Raisins: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Turkey Hatchery (NASS).

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


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