The Week Ahead: Sept. 24-30, 2012

September 24, 2012 01:57 AM
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via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress leaves for elections; to return Nov. 12 | Key USDA reports Friday

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

In Washington, things should be relatively quiet as the House and Senate wrapped up the few things they could settle on before all of the House and one-third of the Senate face voters Nov. 6. Lawmakers return Nov. 12.

The economic calendar this week gets busier, with something nearly every day. Monday will open with the Dallas Federal Reserve index which will get noticed after the other regional indexes released the past week. More housing data is on tap, with a home price index on Tuesday, New Home Sales Wednesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. Consumer Confidence data arrives on Wednesday, with a very busy Thursday on tap, too. Besides housing data out that day, weekly jobless claims, Durable Goods and GDP all are also released. Friday will see things wrap up with Personal Income, the Chicago Fed manufacturing data and Consumer Sentiment.

Besides economic reports, the focus for financial markets will be on appearances by Federal Reserve officials, debt developments in Europe, any actions by China’s central bank and tensions in the Mideast.

For agriculture, the week will also be a busy one. Monday brings the weekly update on Crop Progress while Tuesday will see more than just agriculture interests focus on USDA, with the monthly food price forecast update. Weekly Export Sales data will be watched to see if things perked up in the post-Crop Production report period. But much of the attention will be on Friday’s release of Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary data in the morning (the last morning release of Grain Stocks data following recently announced release time changes) with the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report out that afternoon. Traders will be watching for any additional news out of Russia on their grain export plans, and demand news with the current tight supply situation will always be a watch point for markets.

Key events and reports this week include:

Monday, Sept. 24
U.S. Congress out until after elections:
Both houses of the US Congress are no longer in session and are expected to return around a week following Nov. 6 elections for a lame-duck session that could last from two to six weeks.
French President François Hollande
begins three-day visit to the US.
World economy:
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks in Washington on the global economy.
Federal Reserve:
San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook.
Economic reports:
Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Dallas Fed Survey.
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | Poultry Slaughter (NASS) | Cotton Ginnings (NASS).

Tuesday, Sept. 25
President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are scheduled to speak at the Clinton Global Initiative meeting.
Europe: ECB head Mario Draghi meets with Germany's Angela Merkel in Brussels.
Energy reports: Weekly National Petroleum Report (API).
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | S&P Case-Shiller HPI | Consumer Confidence | FHFA House Price Index.
USDA reports: Food Price Outlook (ERS).

Wednesday, Sept. 26
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | New Home Sales.
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Monthly Milk Cost of Production (ERS).

Thursday, Sept. 27
Spain: A bailout agreement between Spain and the EU could be announced.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti speaks about the euro at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the U.S.
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA).
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept) | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | Durable Goods Orders | GDP | Pending Home Sales Index.
Transportation: Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Stone Fruit: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Agricultural Prices (NASS) | Peanut Stocks and Processing (NASS) | Vegetables and Melons Outlook (ERS) | Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook (ERS).

Friday, Sept. 28

Spain: External audit of Spain's banking system is scheduled to be released.
Economic reports:
Chicago PMI | Consumer Sentiment | Personal Income and Outlays.
USDA reports: Grain Stocks (NASS) | Small Grains Summary (NASS) | Egg Products (NASS) | Peanut Prices (NASS) | Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (NASS) | Turkey Raised (NASS).

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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