The Week Ahead: Sept. 30-Oct. 6, 2013

September 29, 2013 10:52 PM
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Another government shutdown showdown

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In Washington, Monday is “D-Day” for lawmakers to have worked out some kind of deal in order to keep the government operating come Tuesday, Oct. 1, the start of Fiscal 2014. The debt limit will also continue to percolate as a focus for lawmakers as they set their positions. Hearings are also on tap, including the focus on advanced biofuels in the Senate Ag Committee while a House Ag subcommittee looks at customer protections in the futures market as it relates to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Friday becomes the big day for economic data as the monthly Employment report will be released and it will be scrutinized for how it may or may not affect the odds for the Fed to taper their asset purchases. But leading up to Friday, there will be several updates on manufacturing and more. Monday will bring the Chicago PMI report along with a report from the Dallas Federal Reserve. Tuesday will see release of the PMI manufacturing index along with the ISM manufacturing index and Construction Spending. Wednesday will see the private-sector jobs update via the ADP report but the big focus will be on remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that afternoon. Thursday’s run of data includes weekly jobless claims, Factory Orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index. There are other Fed speakers on tap Thursday and Friday, but the big focus will be on Bernanke.

For agriculture, Monday is the big day with release of the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. Weather as it relates to harvest activity is the main focus for markets and the harvest progress is the key area to watch in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Given the strong demand showing in the export side, Thursday’s weekly update from USDA could also be very important for markets as they watch to see how much the downturn in prices has bolstered demand for U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat.

Monday, Sept. 30
Congress has until midnight to pass a bill to keep the government going for the next fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Chicago PMI | Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
USDA reports: Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | Grain Stocks (NASS) | Small Grains Summary (NASS) | Egg Products (NASS) | Turkeys Raised (NASS) | Fruit & Tree Nuts Outlook (ERS) | Vegetables & Pulses Outlook (ERS)

Tuesday, Oct. 1
Health care reform: Individuals can begin signing up for insurance via health-care exchanges, as a major feature of the Affordable Care Act—Obamacare—takes effect, though glitches abound. For one, insurance exchanges won't be ready to accept online applications from small businesses.
Housing finance: Committee hearing. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Subcommittee hearing. House Financial Services — Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit.
US freight system: Subcommittee hearing. House Transportation and Infrastructure — Panel on 21st Century Freight Transportation Panel.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | Motor Vehicle Sales | PMI Mfg Index | ISM Mfg Index | Construction Spending
Asian Development Bank releases latest economic outlook on emerging Asian economies.
CFTC outlook: Subcommittee hearing. House Agriculture — Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management.
Wind energy production tax credit: Subcommittee hearing. House Oversight and Government Reform — Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Health Care and Entitlements.
North American Energy Infrastructure Act: Subcommittee hearing. House Energy and Commerce — Subcommittee on Energy and Power.
Economic outlook: Committee hearing. Joint Economic Committee. Witness: Jason Furman, chairman, Council of Economic Advisers.
Dodd-Frank and competition in the financial industry: Subcommittee hearing. House Judiciary — Subcommittee on Regulatory Reform, Commercial and Antitrust Law.
American manufacturing: Subcommittee hearing. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs — Subcommittee on Economic Policy.
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA) | Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Federal Reserve: San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on economy and monetary policy, in Portland, Ore. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota also speaks.
Economic reports: MBA Purchase Applications | ADP Employment Report
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Announcement of Class & Component Prices (AMS)

Thursday, Oct. 3
Bank of Japan holds a two-day monetary policy meeting.
Federal Reserve: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher discussion with John Taylor on the effect of uncertainty on on growth, in Dallas. Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell speech to the St. Louis Fed's Community Banking Research Conference.
Advanced biofuels and jobs: Committee hearing. Senate Ag Committee. Witnesses include USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack.
Situation in Syria: Committee news conference and briefing. Senate Armed Services Committee.
Threats to US: Committee hearing. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
Implementation of Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act: Subcommittee hearing. House Energy and Commerce — Subcommittee on Health.
Energy reports: EIA natural gas report.
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Factory Orders | ISM Non-Mfg Index
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | | Dairy Products (NASS) |

Friday, Oct. 4
Federal Reserve: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Narayana Kocherlakota speech on monetary policy in Bloomington, Minn.
Economic reports: Employment
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Vegetables (NASS) | Quick Stats Database Cash Rents-County (NASS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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