Too Ample Waves of Grain?

June 13, 2015 05:00 AM
Too Ample Waves of Grain?

Jerry Gulke remembers marketing years when the old-crop carryovers for corn and soybeans were minimal.

That’s definitely not the case right now.

“There’s really nothing that can happen—short of a weather disaster—that will tell us we won’t have enough grain until we get in the new crop,” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago, all“…Even though demand is pretty good, we’ve just got a little too much. There’s going to be plenty [of grain] for everyone going into new-crop harvest.”

What is still uncertain? Just how many acres will contribute to that harvest.

While the market will want to know feed grain usage in the June 30 stocks report, “I think the more important thing is going to be the acreage number,” says Gulke, who notes that many states—Missouri, Nebraska, the Dakotas, even Ohio—have been dealing with uncooperative planting weather. 

Listen to Gulke's full comments on the Weekend Market Report:

Add in the varying perspectives on just how many farmers planted corn vs. soybeans this year, the missing wheat acres, and you have a market that is tightly focused on which way acres will go.

“There’s enough difference of opinion out there about what those acres might ultimately be that someone could be surprised,” says Gulke, who adds that the market currently is projecting a 168 bu. yield, slightly higher than the USDA.

What was your acreage mix this year? Has weather caused problems with those plans? Let us know your thoughts. 


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Spell Check

Carbondale, IL
6/13/2015 11:06 AM

  Southern Illinois (south of I-70 and west of I-57) is wet, without doubt corn/beans acreage planting intentions have been altered. It's not been wet as the flood years like '93 just frequent rains disrupting fieldwork. Last of the beans to be planted yet with wheat ready to come out now. I‘ve had to make a weekly trip from Carbondale to Jacksonville IL sometimes using the I-55 corridor and the St Rt 67 those areas also have received ample rain but seem to have had larger windows of opportunity to plant than south of I-70. I'm reminded of the old trade adage of "Rain makes Grain" but this saturation could cause shallow rooting, loss of nutrient uptake etc. We’ll grow a good crop if the last of the acres can go in within reason and we don’t run up against prevented planting dates.

Langdon, ND
6/14/2015 06:50 AM

  After the earliest start of planting in recent memory mid aprilwe had temps of 26 for hours on may 25 killed lots ofcanola and hurt wheat ! Lots of acres being reseeded which is way past final plant date! Canada is worse off but market doesnt reflect that. We need nice dry long fall but this mornings ag meteorologist said el nino creates a short cold fall! Oh oh. We are in trouble here!

vernon becker
hopkinton, IA
6/13/2015 09:29 AM

  I chuckle when J listen to all these who know what is going in the grain markets , remind me of people who guard our prisons, no one knowa anything till it is to late


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