Jerry Gulke remembers marketing years when the old-crop carryovers for corn and soybeans were minimal.
That’s definitely not the case right now.
“There’s really nothing that can happen—short of a weather disaster—that will tell us we won’t have enough grain until we get in the new crop,” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago, all“…Even though demand is pretty good, we’ve just got a little too much. There’s going to be plenty [of grain] for everyone going into new-crop harvest.”
What is still uncertain? Just how many acres will contribute to that harvest.
While the market will want to know feed grain usage in the June 30 stocks report, “I think the more important thing is going to be the acreage number,” says Gulke, who notes that many states—Missouri, Nebraska, the Dakotas, even Ohio—have been dealing with uncooperative planting weather.
Listen to Gulke's full comments on the Weekend Market Report:
Add in the varying perspectives on just how many farmers planted corn vs. soybeans this year, the missing wheat acres, and you have a market that is tightly focused on which way acres will go.
“There’s enough difference of opinion out there about what those acres might ultimately be that someone could be surprised,” says Gulke, who adds that the market currently is projecting a 168 bu. yield, slightly higher than the USDA.
What was your acreage mix this year? Has weather caused problems with those plans? Let us know your thoughts.