Trade Expects Only Small Changes in March USDA Reports

March 8, 2016 02:30 PM
Trade Expects Only Small Changes in March USDA Reports

Just like February, the March USDA reports aren’t expected to be market movers. Analysts forecast only minimal changes to numbers from the U.S. and South America.

“Price expectations are still low,” said Ignacio A. Ciampitti, assistant professor at Kansas State University. “We’re not seeing changes (in corn, soybeans, or wheat).”

Here is the average trade forecast for U.S. carryover in corn, soybeans and wheat, according to Allendale:

  • Corn: 1.854 billion bu., up from 1.837 billion bu. in February.
  • Soybeans: 452 million bu.,  up from 450 million bu. in February.
  • Wheat: 975 million bu., up from 966 million bu. in February.

“The export forecast may be overly optimistic for corn,” cautioned Brian Basting of Advance Trading in Bloomington, Ill.

In terms of tomorrow’s numbers, “the greatest interest is in South America, which is harvesting its first crop of corn and planting its second crop,” he said.

A production increase is expected for Brazil and Argentina because of good weather in the region, according to Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management in Omaha.

Meanwhile, equity markets fell on Tuesday, amid concerns over weak data from China, dipping oil prices and a global economic slowdown. “Although the equity markets spill over, it’s not expected to be a big factor in moving the markets,” Basting added.

In terms of planting decisions, the current price situation does not appear to be forcing any major changes by U.S. farmers as spring approaches. “They’re not changing from corn to soybeans and milo,” Ciampitti said. “Any change would be rotation.”

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