The USDA releases its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand numbers Tuesday, but the trade isn’t paying too much attention.
“I don’t think they’re going to change a lot of numbers,” said DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing, speaking on a U.S. Farm Report roundtable in North Dakota. “I think they’re going to wait for the quarterly stocks report at the end of the month…. I don’t look for a big breakout next week.”
What is the trade—and everyone else—waiting to see? The March 31 Prospective Plantings report, when farmers declare their intentions for this growing season. While experts do expect farmers to plant more soybeans this year than they did last year, many remain undecided about their plans for corn.
“As we talked at seed and agronomy meetings, farmers weren’t as willing to prepay for input, so they still have the choice to plant corn or beans,” said Tommy Grisafi of Advance Trading, who noted that weather could end up being a deciding factor for some.
Listen to the discussion here:
That hesitation about committing to corn could push corn prices up, according to Andy Shissler of S&W Trading. “I think farmers will say they’re not going to plant corn whether they will or they won’t,” he said. “If the price changed, then the acres would change, but you’re going to see a bullish acres report on corn. Overall acres are going to be down, the bean acres are going to be heavy. We saw beans rally because of the strike in Brazil, and corn was kind of low at the time … corn’s going to have the rally next.”
Shissler also expressed confidence in corn going forward, given current planting discussions and market trends. “I’m naturally contrarian, and if everybody’s going heavy beans, I’d prefer to go heavy corn,” he said. “I look at what the yield potential is a lot of these states, and I just think it’s there to make the money.”
What do you expect to plant this spring? Talk corn vs. beans on the AgWeb discussion boards.