Trade Ranges Ahead of USDA’s Report are Wide

January 7, 2010 01:43 AM

Linda H. Smith, Top Producer Business and Marketing Editor

In a year with as many uncertainties as this harvest brought, perhaps it isn't too surprising that trade estimates going into USDA's Jan. 12 reports are wider than usual. So perhaps it will be hard for a major surprise to come out of the reports.

Winter Wheat Acre Estimates (mil. acres)
High 42.49
Average 40.5
Low 38.39
USDA last year 43.31
  Corn Production (bil. bu.) Yield (bu./acre)
High 12.996 164.5
Average 12.82 152.41
Low 12.576 160
USDA Dec. 12.92 162.0

  Soybean Production (bil. bu.) Yield (bu./acre)
High 3.42 44.7
Average 3.34 43.6
Low 3.22 41.9
USDA Dec. 3.32 43.3
South America could be the bull slayer in soybeans, if Jim Bower of Bower Trading's estimates are right. He sees a whopping 127 million metric ton harvest getting underway, based on early reports from scouts in Brazil. "Granted, a big crop is somewhat digested in the market, but traders tend to keep some weather premium in prices until the crop is past the point where weather matters. We have two or three more weeks before the crop is really known in Brazil and three to seven weeks in Argentina. After that, I think we'll see the premium disappear.”

You can e-mail Linda Smith at
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