Trade Ranges Ahead of USDA’s Report are Wide

January 7, 2010 01:43 AM
 


Linda H. Smith, Top Producer Business and Marketing Editor

 
In a year with as many uncertainties as this harvest brought, perhaps it isn't too surprising that trade estimates going into USDA's Jan. 12 reports are wider than usual. So perhaps it will be hard for a major surprise to come out of the reports.

Winter Wheat Acre Estimates (mil. acres)
High 42.49
Average 40.5
Low 38.39
USDA last year 43.31
 
  Corn Production (bil. bu.) Yield (bu./acre)
High 12.996 164.5
Average 12.82 152.41
Low 12.576 160
USDA Dec. 12.92 162.0

  Soybean Production (bil. bu.) Yield (bu./acre)
High 3.42 44.7
Average 3.34 43.6
Low 3.22 41.9
USDA Dec. 3.32 43.3
 
 
South America could be the bull slayer in soybeans, if Jim Bower of Bower Trading's estimates are right. He sees a whopping 127 million metric ton harvest getting underway, based on early reports from scouts in Brazil. "Granted, a big crop is somewhat digested in the market, but traders tend to keep some weather premium in prices until the crop is past the point where weather matters. We have two or three more weeks before the crop is really known in Brazil and three to seven weeks in Argentina. After that, I think we'll see the premium disappear.”
 
 
 
 

 
You can e-mail Linda Smith at lsmith@farmjournal.com.
 
 
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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