Traders Surprised by Steady Corn Carryover Peg

April 10, 2012 04:12 AM

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Overnight highlights. Following are highlights of overnight trade:

Corn: Mixed. Futures are expected to be mixed this morning in reaction to this morning's USDA S&D Report. USDA surprisingly left carryover unchanged from last month at 801 million bu., as traders expected USDA to slash carryover after the March 30 Grain Stocks Report showed stronger-than-expected quarterly usage. Traders look for USDA to trim carryover in upcoming reports, but for now are disappointed by this morning's report. Corn should benefit from spillover from neighboring pits.

Soybeans: 8 to 15 cents higher. Soybean futures are called to open higher as USDA trimmed carryover about as expected -- by 25 million bu. from last month to 250 million bushels. Given the tight carryover outlook and strong start to demand for the 2012-13 marketing year, traders will continue to bid for 2012 acres. USDA announced a 165,000 metric ton soybean sale for 2012-13 this morning to China.

Wheat: 4 to 8 cents higher. Futures are called to open higher based on USDA trimming 2010-11 wheat carryover about as expected to 793 million bushels. Wheat is also expected to benefit from spillover from soybeans, but upside potential could be limited if corn sees a choppy start.

Live cattle: Steady to higher. Futures are expected to see a boost as the beef market started the week on solid footing -- raising cash expectations. If beef prices continue to firm this week, it will signal a near-term low has been posted. This morning, USDA raised its 2012 beef production forecast slightly and also lowered its export forecast and lowered its price forecast by 50 cents from last month to an average of $127.00.

Lean Hogs: Steady to weaker. Futures are expected to be softer this morning due to weakness in the pork cutout market. Traders are disappointed by the slow start to the pork cutout market as they expected retailers to feature pork after Easter. This morning, USDA raised is 2012 pork production outlook slightly and also raised pork exports slightly, but lowered the price forecast by $1.50 from last month to an average of $63.50.


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