Tropical Pacific Ocean Remains ENSO Neutral

December 4, 2012 12:21 AM

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to ENSO, with neither neither El Nino nor La Nina present. Climate models indicate this situation is likely to remain through the southern hemisphere summer. As a result, it says Australian rainfall and temperatures are unlikely to be strongly influenced by ENSO.

Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels over recent months, says the bureau. "Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean were consistently warmer-than-normal during (southern hemisphere) winter and spring, occasionally reaching or exceeding El Nino thresholds. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific are now at neutral levels," it says.

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