True Acreage Numbers Likely Won't Be Known Until August

02:32PM Jul 01, 2019
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Margy Eckelkamp
( Margy Eckelkamp )

USDA's planted acreage estimates for corn catching the entire ag industry by surprise at the end of June. The survey taken during the first two weeks of June saw USDA calling for 91.7 million acres. That's only one million acres fewer than it's March forecast and well above the trade expectations of 86.6 million acres. 

Arlan Suderman with INTL FC Stone telling AgDay's Clinton Griffiths he thinks that acreage report should have been published. 

"We knew from the start that it was not going to be valid," says Suderman. "I'm glad to see them do a resurvey."

Suderman says that doesn't mean it didn't provide some value.

"It tells us that on June 1, farmers were reading the tea leaves and that they knew that the fundamentals are going to be good for corn but they're not going to be good for soybeans," says Suderman. "So it was their intention to switch from soybeans to corn and unfortunately they weren't able to do that as much as they'd like because of the persistent rains."

Suderman says the industry likely won't know how many prevent plant acres there are until August or maybe September.
"I think they are going to come out of both corn and soybeans," says Suderman. "What farmers were really trying to get in was corn but they had difficulty doing so."

While markets reacted strongly to USDA's report, Suderman thinks eventually there will be some sort of balance. 

"I think a lot of it was unwinding spreads and so that will settle down," says Suderman. "I think we'll have a lot of people wanting to buy corn particularly feed buyers are really happy to see this break and corn prices because it allows them to get some more coverage."

Acreage Report Analysis