Pro Farmer Editors
A new study by University of Illinois agricultural economists projects
that average 2008 corn yields could be reduced by 2.9 bushels per acre in Illinois,
3.5 bushels in Indiana, and 6.3 bushels in Iowa due to later-than-normal planting
and above-normal precipitation in May. Soybean yields may be down 1.1 bushels,
0.4 bushels, and 1.0 bushels per acre, respectively, in those same states for
the same reasons.
"The purpose of our study was to evaluate 2008 yield potential for corn
and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa using previously developed crop
weather models that estimate the impact of technology and state average monthly
weather variables on state average yields," explained Scott Irwin, a
professor in the U of I Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
and lead author of the study. Department colleagues Darrel Good and Mike Tannura
The various models used by Irwin and his colleagues in projecting 2008 yields
resulted in a wide range of forecasts of U.S. average yields for both crops.
"Corn yield forecasts range from 129.3 to 163.8 bushels per acre and the
soybean yield forecasts range from 37.8 to 45.3 bushels," he said.
Irwin said that with the exception of the unfavorable July and August weather
forecasts used in the models, these yield and production expectations exceed
those of the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.