Upticks in Ending Stocks Lead to Slightly Bearish February USDA Report

February 9, 2016 11:49 AM

As expected, USDA raised U.S. ending stocks for grains and soybeans Tuesday in its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

But USDA did move a few estimates slightly higher than expected and reduced exports, resulting in moderately to slightly bearish numbers, according to Rich Nelson, chief market strategist for Allendale, in a post-report analysis.

Here are some of the key numbers from Tuesday’s report:

Corn: 1.837 billion bu., which is more than the trade’s estimate of 1.809 billion bu. and the January report’s 1.802 billion bu. Exports slipped by 50 million bu. due to tough competition from South America, but strong ethanol production pace was able to offset that number with a 25-million uptick in corn for ethanol usage.

Soybeans: 450 million bu., which is more than the trade’s estimate of 445 million bu. and the January report’s 440 million bu. Crush is down, thanks to lower soybean meal and oil exports. Why? A much more competitive Argentina.

Wheat: 966 million bu., which is the highest in five years, according to the USDA, and higher than the trade’s estimate of 947 billion bu. and the January report’s 941 billion bu. 

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