U.S. Wheat Competitive Again On Global Market

February 13, 2012 02:58 AM

What Traders are Talking About:

* Egypt buys U.S. wheat. Egypt purchased 55,000 MT of U.S. SRW wheat over the weekend -- the first purchase of U.S. supplies by the country since last June. U.S. prices are finally competitive again after Russia and Ukraine dominated global wheat trade since last August. Russian wheat prices are now reportedly higher than U.S. wheat, so it's likely the U.S. will start to get some of the business on optional origin tenders.

The long and short of it: Russian official have squelched talk of an export duty to slow grain shipments, but it appears higher prices will slow grain sales and open the door to more demand for U.S. wheat.

* Greece passes austerity bill. Greece moved a step closer to securing needed bailout funding from the European Union/International Monetary Fund when it's parliament passed a new austerity plan over the weekend. The highly unpopular measure triggered strong rioting in Athens, but Greece's lawmakers had little choice as the funding is needed before mid-March to avoid sovereign debt default.

The long and short of it: The passage of the Greek austerity package is supporting the euro and weighing on the U.S. dollar, which is supportive for commodities to start the week.

* USDA's long-term baseline projections out this morning. USDA's long-term baseline assumptions will include acreage figures for this year (and the next decade), but keep in mind these projections were formulated off the November Supply & Demand Report and macro-economic assumptions in October. President Obama will also release his Fiscal Year 2013 budget proposals today, which will likely include an end to direct payments.

The long and short of it: USDA's long-term baseline projections typically get more market attention than they should. In reality, they are nothing more than a long-term guess based on conditions the previous fall.


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