USDA Export Numbers Could Fall If South America Pulls Ahead

January 18, 2018 02:28 PM

It’s been almost a week since the USDA released its January crop production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, showing a big corn crop became bigger and record-setting at 176.6 bushels per acre.

“We’re looking at a tremendous amount of carry-in supply relative to the previous year, and that’s going to offset our smaller acreage this year,” said Brian Basting, commodity research analyst with Advance Trading, Inc., on U.S. Farm Report.

He said the grinding market action in corn is a factor characteristic of a large supply and relatively routine demand year.

Soybean yields, on the other hand, were trimmed to 49.1 bushels per acre, and the carryout number is something producers and traders will start watching as exports have had a slow start to 2018.

In the January 2017 report, Kevin Duling of KD Investors, said the soybean carryout number was 480 million bushels. When the marketing year ended, that number had only decreased by 180 million bushels to 300.

“We could see a similar situation if we see the exports return,” he said. “If our exports move, the carry out number can move a lot. They were off by 38 percent last year.”

The USDA’s export numbers have some traders scratching their head. Based on internal analysis, Basting said Advance Trading Inc.’s numbers show the USDA’s export number is too high.

“The sales pace we’ve seen, given the prospects now, are looking better and better for another large crop out of Brazil,” he said.

Hear Basting and Duling discuss corn exports and their full comments about the reports on U.S. Farm Report above.

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