USDA Leaves Markets Sideways. Now What?

October 10, 2015 05:00 AM
 
USDA Leaves Markets Sideways. Now What?

When Jerry Gulke looks at USDA’s October reports, he sees a few adjustments, but not any that would move the market in any dramatic way.

“They didn’t change things too much,” says Gulke, speaking with Farm Journal Radio’s Pam Fretwell. “It was a lot of hype and much ado about nothing, perhaps.”

What were the changes that did happen? A reduction in harvested acres for corn (down 400,000 acres) and soybeans (down 1 million acres) and a tiny increase in yield for corn and soybeans. 

“It’s almost like they appeased those who think the yields ought to be increased,” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago and a farmer in Illinois.

But with those small shifts, the negative impact on grain and soybean prices appeared to be minimal.

“I think we’ll have a lot of traders out there saying the harvest lows are behind us in the beans,” Gulke says. “Whether they go higher or not—that’s going to depend on demand.”

But prices may still not be high enough to persuade growers to unload their crops. “Farmers are pretty tight holders,” Gulke says. “We have sufficient storage, and from what I gather, the eastern Corn Belt guys know that holding their corn and beans off the market (brings) their basis higher.”

Listen to Gulke’s full comments on USDA’s October numbers, including his thoughts on the cattle market and what the U.S. dollar vs. the Brazilian real means for exports. 

 

What sort of yields are you seeing in your area? See how harvest is shaping up and submit your own corn and soybean data to AgWeb's Harvest Maps.

 

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Comments

 
Spell Check

Binderpower
Plover, WI
10/14/2015 06:17 AM
 

  Zorcon, you hit it out of the park. Made my day. I don't need to say no more, cause you said it for me.

 
 
Binderpower
Plover, WI
10/14/2015 06:16 AM
 

  Zorcon, you hit it out of the park with your analysis. That made my day. You said it, therefore, I need to say no more.

 
 
Zorcon
Western, NE
10/11/2015 12:20 PM
 

  It just amazes me how much of an industry there is behind agriculture that isn't even involved in it. I call it "the trade." But, honestly, what's the difference between agriculture's "shadow industry" and fantasy football? Really not much. USDA is just reporting the "team" statistics that the fantasizers use to screw with the price. I'm sorry--those in the trade call that "price discovery!" Anyway you look at it, you'll have to alot so many dollars per acre to market your crops. Another expense! Oh, and isn't the Fed worried about deflation???? Hmmmm....seems to be affecting ag right now!

 
 

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