USDA Raises Brazil Soybean Numbers

January 13, 2017 04:08 PM
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Taking favorable weather into account, USDA this week raised Brazil’s soybean production estimate, on the heels of a similar adjustment by  Brazil’s government.

USDA raised Brazil soybean production  to  104 MMT, up  from 102 MMT in December. The weather-plagued harvest of 2015-16, by comparison, was 96.50 MMT, according to USDA.

Similarly, Brazil’s grain agency CONAB raised soybean production estimates by  8.3 million tons  (8.7%)  to 103.8 million tons earlier this week. CONAB cited an increase of 1.6% more acres planted to soybeans. First-crop soybeans will go up 25.7%, or 1.3 million tons, according to CONAB.

Although USDA kept Argentina soybean estimates unchanged from December, at 57 MMT, one consultancy based in Buenos Aires told AgWeb there are concerns that uncooperative weather could lead to losses for a soybean crop it estimates at 55 million tons.

Today in Argentina due to weather problems [drought in some areas and excess rain in others], about 10% of the area remains to be planted, which is about 1.9 million hectares [for a total of 19.3 million hectareas], and  implies 3.8 million tons over a total production forecast of 55 million tones [if all the area is planted],” according to Pablo Adreani, of the  Buenos Aires-based AgriPAC  consultancy

The window planting season expired this week, he explains: “This is the main issue for Argentine soybean production that will be defined in the next week."

USDA kept Brazil corn production at 86.5 MMT, unchanged from last month, while CONAB raised Brazil’s corn crop estimates. 

CONAB increased Brazil’s corn production by 26% to 84.5 million tons, with the first harvest put at 28.4 million tons and the second harvest at 56.1 million tons. CONAB also raised rrain production 15.3% to 215.3 million tons, up by 28.6 million tons.

Argentina’s corn crop also was unchanged by USDA at 36.50 MMT.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said earlier this week that despite flooding in the central agricultural region, soybean plantings are now 96.4% complete, covering an area of 18.6 million hectares. Corn plantings are 90.7 percent complete, covering 4.4 million hectares.

USDA put Brazil wheat production for 2016-17 at 6.70 MMT, and Argentina’s wheat production for 2016-17 at 15 MMT.

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