Few major changes were reported in the USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday, largely reflecting analysts’ expectations.
“It was a quiet report, as it usually is in April," said Rich Nelson, chief strategist of Allendale. “I see no market impact from this report,” he said, adding that the market's focus now will shift to what is likely for planting and the South American harvest.
Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities, agreed, noting on an MGEX conference call that there were no major surprises.
Don Roose of U.S. Commodities called the report “neutral overall. It was negative on corn and wheat, and neutral on soybeans."
Here are some of the key numbers from Tuesday’s data release:
Corn: U.S. corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.862 billion bushels, which is higher than the trade expected. According to USDA, corn for ethanol was higher than expected, but feed and residual use was lowered.
Soybeans: U.S. soybean ending stocks were estimated at 445 million bushels, which was less than the average trade expectation of 454 million bushels.
Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks were estimated at 976 million bushels, which was just 1 million bushels more than the trade forecast of 977 million bushels. At 976 million bushels, these qualify as the largest ending stocks since 1987, according to USDA, thanks to lower feed and residual use and rising production in Europe and Argentina.
According to Roose, speculative funds “were not spooked” by the report’s soybean numbers and continue to support the crop, but were staying short on corn and wheat. He also noted that the report's information on crops in South America did not reflect current weather conditions in that area, where growers are dealing with wet weather in Argentina and dry weather in Brazil.