USDA Ups Soybean Yields, Lowers Price Forecast

August 10, 2017 11:10 AM
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USDA left its forecast for season-average corn prices the same this month, but lowered expected soybean prices by a dime at the midpoint.


U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 130.9 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month mainly due to higher soybean production.  Soybean production is forecast at 4,381 million bushels, up 121 million on higher yields.  Harvested area is forecast at 88.7 million acres, unchanged from July. 

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 49.4 bushels per acre is 1.4 bushels above last month but 2.7 below last year’s record.  With higher production and lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017/18 are projected at 4,777 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month. 

U.S. soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2,225 million on increased supplies and lower prices.  Crush is reduced on lower global soybean meal import demand.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2017/18 is forecast at $8.45 to $10.15 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint.  The soybean meal price forecast of $295 to $335 per short ton is down $5.00 at the midpoint.  The soybean oil price is forecast at 31 to 35 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.


Coarse Grains

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. 

The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend-based projection.  This month’s Crop Production report indicates that South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are forecast to have yields below a year ago.  The projected yield for Indiana is unchanged relative to last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast higher. 

Sorghum production is forecast 13 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 2.6 bushels per acre above last month’s projection. 

Projected feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 25 million bushels on a smaller crop.  Exports are forecast down 25 million bushels, reflecting the increased competitiveness of supplies in Argentina and Brazil and the low level of new-crop outstanding sales.  With supplies falling faster than use, ending stocks are reduced 52 million bushels. 

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel. 


Read the full Aug. 10, 2017 WASDE report.

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Spell Check

8/10/2017 07:31 PM

  We are hoping our soybeans yield 49bu per 4 acres. If we don't get a good rain soon we are thinking about mowing a baling the beans.

Gary Young
Parksley, VA
8/10/2017 07:45 PM

  USDA is a corrupt government agency. Why should anyone believe anything that is produced by them. Where I live the weeds have been difficult to control, have robbed yields and has been very costly. Screw the USDA. I'm fed up with them tampering with the markets.


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