USDA 2014/15 S/D Highlights: Record Corn, Bean Crops & Rising Carryovers

February 21, 2014 12:45 AM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Initial 2014/15 outlook from USDA analysts

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

USDA 2014/15 S/D Highlights: Record corn, bean crops & rising carryovers. Following are highlights of the 2014/15 Supply/Demand projections released today at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum:

  • Corn crop put at 13.985 bil. bu. on 165.3 bu/ac yield on 84.6 mil. harvested acres. Feed residual use at 5.4 bil. bu. combines with total FSI use of 6.43 bil. bu. (5.0 bil. for ethanol) and exports of 1.550 bil. for 2.111 bil. bu. carryover. Season-avg. price: $3.90 per bu.

  • Soybean crop of 3.550 bil. bu. on 45.2 bu/ac yield on 78.5 mil. harvested acres. Total domestic use of 1.83 bil. bu. (crush of 1.725 bil.) and exports of 1.6 bil. bu. put total use at 3.43 bil. bu and push carryover up to 285 mil. bushels. Season avg. price: $9.65 per bu.

  • Wheat crop of 2.160 bil. bu. on 45.8 bu/ac yield on 47.2 mil. harvested acres. Total domestic use of 1.231 bil. bu. (incl. 190 mil. bu. feed/residual) and exports of 1.050 bil. put total use at 2.281 bil. bu. and carryover at 587 mil. bushels. Season avg. price: $5.30 per bushel.

  • Futures, cash and farm-level wheat, corn and soybean prices all fall on record US corn, soybean crops and carryover building – soybeans highest in 8 years.

  • Rice production at 213.5 mil. cwt on yield of 7,429 lbs/ac on 2.87 mil. harvested acres (2.90 mil. planted). Total domestic use of 126.0 mil. cwt and exports of 105.0 mil. cwt put carryover at 30.8 mil. cwt. Season avg. price of $15.90 per cwt.

  • Cotton crop of 16.3 mil. bales on yield of 805 lbs/ac on 9.7 mil. harvested acres (16.0% abandonment). Mill use at 3.7 mil. bales combined with exports of 11.0 mil. bales to push carryover up to 4.6 mil. bales. Season-avg. price of 68 cents/pound. First cotton carryover rise in three years.

  • Sugar production at 8.920 mil. STRV, with imports of 3.671 mil. STRV (2.262 mil. STRV from Mexico) and total use at 12.229 mil. STRV put ending stocks at 2.188 mil. STRV and 17.9% stocks/use ratio. Sugar price forecast means USDA may have to take action to trim supply.

  • 2014 beef production seen at 24.4 bil. lbs (-6%) on total slaughter decline of 5%. Beef exports at 2.34 bil. lbs (-10% vs 2013) with imports of 2.29 bil. pounds. Season-avg. price of record $132-$140. Retail prices seen up 2-3% vs 2013 record of $5.29/pound.

  • 2014 pork production seen at 23.4 bil. lbs (+1%) but slaughter down on PEDv impact. Pork exports seen at 5.14 bil. lbs (+3%) while imports 880 mil. pounds. Season-avg. price of $61-$65 vs $64.05 in 2013. Retail prices seen 6-7% under 2013 record of $3.61/pound.

  • 2014 broiler production 38.9 bil. lbs (+3%), with higher weight birds expected. Exports seen at 7.50 bil. lbs (+1.8%) with season avg. price of $0.94 to $10.1 per lb ($1 in 2013).

  • Milk output to rise 4.5 bil. lbs on 1.9% more milk per cow. Exports seen falling from 2013 record. 

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






Back to news


Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer