COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast production for corn and sorghum. Corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 187 million bushels to 13.8 billion. The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 154.4 bushels per acre, is down 2.1 bushels from last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast 36 million bushels lower with the forecast yield 5.9 bushels per acre below last month’s projection.
Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels this month with the smaller crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supplies and increased foreign competition. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 122 million bushels lower. The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel. Prices received by farmers are expected to remain above cash bid levels through the fall as producers who forward-priced corn earlier in the year support the weighted average farm-gate price.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons lower as the reduction in the United States more than offsets an increase in foreign supplies. Global 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.7 million tons. In addition to the United States, corn production is lowered for Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, India, and Turkey. Ukraine production is raised 3.0 million tons as higher reported area combines with favorable July temperatures to raise production prospects. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for India as favorable monsoon rainfall supports increased plantings and a higher yield outlook. Turkey corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher area and higher expected yields. Global barley production is raised 1.1 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Canada. Global rye and mixed grain production are also raised slightly this month with increases for the European Union.
Global 2013/14 corn trade is raised with increased imports projected for Mexico, South Korea, the European Union, and Egypt. Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine, but partly offset by declines for Russia, the European Union, and the United States. Corn trade is also increased for 2012/13 with higher imports for Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the European Union, and Indonesia. Exports for 2012/13 are raised for Brazil and Argentina. Supporting the increase in Brazil export prospects, particularly over the next few months, is a 3.0-million-ton increase in 2012/13 corn production. Global corn consumption for 2013/14 is projected 2.3 million tons lower. Reduced U.S. Feed and residual use is only partly offset by increases for South Korea, Ukraine, and Egypt. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 0.8 million tons lower with the increases for Ukraine, India, and Brazil, mostly offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.2 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 3.255 billion bushels, down 165 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is forecast at 76.4 million acres, down 0.5 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 42.6 bushels per acre is 1.9 bushels below last month’s projection but 3 bushels above last year’s drought-reduced yield. Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 5 percent below last month based on the lower production forecast. With reduced supplies and higher prices, U.S. soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 1.385 billion. Lower U.S. exports will be mostly offset by increases for South America, especially Argentina. Soybean crush is also lowered as higher prices reduce prospective exports for soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 75 million from last month.
U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2012/13 include increased imports, reduced exports, and increased crush. Imports are raised 10 million bushels to 35 million based on strong shipments from South America. Exports are reduced 15 million to 1.315 billion bushels reflecting exceptionally low shipments in recent weeks and revised export data for September through December 2012 from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Crush is increased 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion to account for increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 125 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $10.35 to $12.35 per bushel, up 60 cents on both ends. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345, up 15 dollars at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 44 to 48 cents per pound, down 3 cents at the midpoint reflecting the sharp drop in futures contract prices in the past month.
Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 493.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month. Reductions for soybeans and cottonseed are offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and palm kernel production. Lower soybean production projected for the United States is partly offset by an increase for India where higher harvested area more than offsets reduced yields caused by excessive July rainfall. Rapeseed production is raised in several countries including Canada and the European Union, where abundant moisture and favorable temperatures in July helped to boost yield prospects. Rapeseed production forecasts are also raised for China and Ukraine. Sunflowerseed production is also raised for the European Union and Ukraine. Global peanut production is raised this month reflecting updated historical data and forecasts for several countries in Africa. Cottonseed changes include reduced production for China and the United States and an increase for Pakistan.
Reduced global soybean production is only partly offset by lower crush leaving 2013/14 global soybean ending stocks down 1.9 million tons at 72. 3 million. Global soybean stocks remain record high despite this month’s reduction.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month as small increases for Soft Red Winter wheat and Durum are mostly offset by decreases for White, Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. U.S. wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 25 million bushels reflecting continued strong early season sales and an increased outlook for China imports. Despite larger expected crops in several major exporting countries, strong early season demand and higher projected world imports and consumption also boost prospects for U.S. shipments. Ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $6.40 to $7.60 per bushel. Despite the tighter domestic balance sheet, larger world wheat supplies and lower-than-expected prices reported to date reduce prospects for the weighted average farm price.
Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 7.5 million tons with increases in production for several of the world’s largest exporters pushing world production to a record 705.4 million tons. Production is raised 2.8 million tons for the European Union with the biggest increases for Spain, France, and Germany, and smaller increases for Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Production is raised 2.5 million tons for Kazakhstan where abundant spring and summer rainfall is supporting prospects for strong yields, much as in the adjoining spring wheat areas of Russia. Ukraine production is raised 2.0 million tons based on the latest harvest results. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Canada as favorable soil moisture and a lack of heat stress across the western Prairies support higher yield prospects. India production is raised 0.5 million tons based on the latest government assessment. Turkey production is raised 0.4 million tons for wheat reflecting a favorable growing season throughout the region.
Partly offsetting this month’s production increases are reductions in South America where crops will not be harvested until late 2013. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina based on lower reported seedings. Brazil production is lowered 0.3 million tons reflecting the late July freeze event that appears to have damaged developing wheat in limited areas of southern Brazil.
Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 6.9 million tons with increases in wheat feeding projected for a number of countries and higher food use expected for India and Iran. Feed use is raised again this month for China with higher projected imports. Feed use is also increased for the European Union, Syria, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Morocco. Wheat feeding is lowered for Thailand and Vietnam with lower imports projected for both countries. Imports are raised for Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey. Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 4.9 million tons with increases for Kazakhstan, the European Union, Ukraine, and Canada totaling 7.0 million tons. Exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil with reduced production prospects. India exports are also lowered as relatively high internal prices limit export opportunities. Rising world supplies reduce prices and support global consumption growth, thereby limiting the increase in projected 2013/14 global wheat ending stocks to 0.6 million tons.
COTTON: This month’s U.S. cotton estimates for 2013/14 reflect lower production as indicated by USDA’s first crop survey, resulting in lower ending stocks. Production is reduced 447,000 bales to 13.1 million, the smallest since 2009. The abandonment rate is estimated virtually the same as last season, but yields are down, due mainly to a 17-percent reduction in the Southeast from the 2012 record. Relative to last month, the 2013/14 balance sheet also includes marginally lower beginning stocks and a decrease of 400,000 bales in the export projection. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 2.8 million bales, the equivalent of 20 percent of total disappearance. The forecast range of 72 to 88 cents for the marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 2 cents on each end.
The U.S. 2012/13 balance sheet is revised this month to reflect exports as reported in USDA’s U.S. Export Sales end-of-season report, and also includes a first estimate of final ending stocks. Stocks in public warehouses as of July 27, 2013, as reported to the Farm Service Agency, are lower than anticipated, resulting in a preliminary loss estimate of 325,000 bales.
The 2013/14 world cotton forecasts show higher beginning stocks, lower production, and marginally lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced for China, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe, but is raised for Pakistan. The China crop estimate reflects unfavorable weather in parts of Xinjiang, north central China, and in Hunan province. Other major foreign changes to the world balance sheet are concentrated in India. India’s production is unchanged from last month, but stocks are raised in 2011/12, 2012/13, and 2013/14 due to adjustments to the residual “loss,” as the official data used to estimate production, trade, and consumption indicate unsustainably low stock levels. India’s exports are raised in both 2012/13 and 2013/14.