USDA Drops Corn Stocks and Yields Again

November 9, 2010 01:25 AM

U.S. corn carryover at 827 bill. bu.; U.S. Yield projected at 154.3 


U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are reduced this month with lower expected corn production.

  • Corn production is forecast 124 million bushels lower as the national average yield is lowered to 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast.
  • Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower with the smaller forecast crop and higher prices expected to reduce feeding.
  • Exports are lowered 50 million bushels as higher prices trim export demand.
  • Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with record October ethanol production indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data and favorable ethanol producer margins.
  • Ethanol prices continue to track higher with corn prices, supporting returns for ethanol producers. Although small relative to domestic usage, higher ethanol exports and lower imports are also expected to add to corn use for ethanol with high sugar prices limiting the availability of ethanol from Brazil.
  • Corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 75 million bushels lower.
  • At 827 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 and represent a carryout of 6.2 percent of projected usage.
  • In 1995/96, carryout dropped to 5 percent of estimated usage.
  • The season-average farm price is projected at $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range and well above the previous record of $4.20 per bushel in 2007/08.
  • Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 3.3 million tons lower reflecting reduced corn production in the United States, reduced barley production in China, and reduced oats and rye production in Russia.
  • Global corn production is reduced 1.1 million tons as the U.S. decline is partly offset by a 2.0-million-ton increase for China on higher 2010/11 area.
  • Corn production for China is also raised 2.0 million tons for 2009/10 based on an area increase of 800,000 hectares as indicated by official government statistics.
  • Global 2010/11 barley production is lowered 0.8 million tons mostly on a 0.7-million-ton reduction for China on lower area and yields. Other barley changes include small reductions for Belarus and EU-27, and a 0.3-million-ton increase for Australia as abundant rainfall in eastern growing areas support higher yields. Global oats production is lowered 1.3 million tons mostly on a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Russia. Global rye production is lowered with a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Russia.
  • Global 2010/11 coarse grain trade is lowered slightly this month with lower corn imports for the Philippines and South Korea partly offset by small increases in corn imports for Saudi Arabia and sorghum imports by EU-27. Corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27 and Serbia mostly offsetting the 1.3-million-ton reduction for the United States.
  • Global coarse grain consumption for 2010/11 is lowered slightly as higher corn feeding in China and Argentina are mostly offset by reduced corn feeding in EU-27, South Korea, and the Philippines.
  • Oats and barley consumption are also lowered with reduced oat feeding in Russia and China and reduced barley feeding in EU-27 and China.
  • Global corn ending stocks are lowered 3.2 million tons. At 129.2 million tons, world corn stocks would be the lowest since 2006/07, the first year of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production and use.
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