USDA January 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates -- Text Highlights

January 10, 2014 05:44 AM


COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected lower with reduced production estimated for corn and sorghum. Harvested area for corn is raised 436,000 acres, but the estimated yield is lowered 1.6 bushels per acre to 158.8, reducing production 64 million bushels to 13.9 billion. Sorghum harvested area is lowered 148,000 acres and the yield is lowered 2.6 bushels per acre, reducing production 27 million bushels.

Projected corn use for 2013/14 is raised with feed and residual use projected up 100 million bushels based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks estimate. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels reflecting continued strong weekly ethanol production, a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol, and higher forecast 2014 gasoline consumption in the latest projections from the Energy Information Administration.

A 50-million-bushel reduction in other food, seed, and industrial use offsets the increase in use for ethanol. Corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 161 million bushels lower at 1.6 billion. The projected 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel.

Other 2013/14 feed grain changes include increases in projected feed and residual disappearance for sorghum and oats, but a reduction for barley as indicated by December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower as higher indicated September-November disappearance limits exportable supplies. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is also lowered 20 million bushels.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.2 million tons higher despite this month’s reduction in U.S. production and a 1.9-million-ton decrease in global beginning stocks. Higher 2012/13 corn exports for Brazil reduce beginning stocks for 2013/14. Global barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.6 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Russia. Foreign corn production is raised 4.3 million tons with higher China production. China corn production is raised 6.0 million tons reflecting the latest upward revision by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center, indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production, and review of growing-season weather. Favorable weather suggests year-to-year yield increases in most of China’s major corn producing areas. In the northeastern region, above normal rainfall and favorable temperatures were experienced in nearly all of the corn areas. Harvested area is also raised for China.

Partly offsetting the China corn increase are reductions in 2013/14 corn output for Argentina, Russia, and the European Union. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina with lower expected area and reduced prospects for yields following December heat and dryness. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Russia based on the latest government data. European Union production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for France.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.2 million tons with the higher corn use in the United States and higher barley feeding in the European Union and Russia. World corn trade for 2013/14 is lowered with a 2.0-million-ton reduction in imports expected for China. Recent rejections of U.S. corn shipments by China and larger domestic corn supplies in China are expected to limit imports during the 2013/14 marketing year. China sorghum imports, however, are raised 0.5 million tons. Corresponding reductions in Mexico sorghum imports and feeding raise corn import needs for Mexico. Corn imports are raised for Mexico and the Philippines, up 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively. Corn exports for Argentina are lowered 1.0 million tons also supporting this month’s unchanged U.S. corn export projection. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.2 million tons lower with an increase for China more than offset by reductions for the United States and Brazil.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is estimated at 97.3 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, cottonseed, and peanuts are partly offset by reductions for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean production is estimated at 3.289 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area. The soybean yield is estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.700 billion reflecting higher projected soybean meal exports, which partly offsets a reduction for Argentina. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting record shipments during the first quarter of the marketing year and strong sales through December. Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 150 million bushels, unchanged for last month. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher crush and extraction rate, reduced imports, increased projected exports, and increased ending stocks.

The 2013/14 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $11.75 to $13.25 per bushel based on prices reported to date. The soybean oil price is forecast at 35.5 to 39.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends. The soybean meal price is projected at $415 to $455 per short ton, up 15 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 505.9 million tons, up 3.6 million. Global soybean production is projected at 286.8 million tons, up 1.9 million on gains for the United States and Brazil. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 89.0 million. The increase is due to higher projected area reflecting recent survey data from the Brazilian government. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.3 million tons to 43.7 million on record forecasts for Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union. The Ukraine crop is raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on higher yields. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China and Argentina, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and increased rapeseed production for Russia.

Global oilseed trade for 2013/14 is projected at 128. 9 million tons, up slightly from last month. Increased soybean exports for the United States are partly offset by reduced rapeseed export prospects for Australia and Canada. Lower soybean meal exports for Argentina resulting from lower soybean crush are offset by gains for the United States, Brazil, and Russia. Increased global soybean oil trade mainly reflects a higher projection for the United States. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 85.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from last month on increased soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil, increased canola stocks in Canada, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Russia and Ukraine.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are unchanged this month, but lower expected use raises projected ending stocks 33 million bushels. Feed and residual use is lowered 60 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 stocks released in the Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is lowered for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring, and Soft Red Winter wheat. Seed use is raised 1 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported today in the Winter Wheat Seedings report. Wheat exports are projected 25 million bushels higher, with an increase for HRW, on the strong pace of sales and shipments and lower expected competition from Argentina, particularly in Brazil’s milling wheat market. The 2013/14 season-average farm price is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $6.60 to $7.00 per bushel.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 1.5 million tons to 888.8 million with production increases for China and the FSU-12 more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and the European Union. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for China reflecting the latest estimate by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center and indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for Russia and 0.3 million tons for Tajikistan, both based on the latest official indications. Production is reduced 0.5 million tons for Argentina with harvested area expected lower. Production for the European Union is lowered 0.2 million tons with small downward revisions for the United Kingdom, Finland, and Denmark.

Global wheat trade for 2013/14 is raised with higher imports projected for Egypt, Japan, and Syria more than offsetting reductions for the Philippines and Tajikistan. Exports are raised for the European Union and Russia. Stronger North Africa and Middle East demand drives increases for the European Union and Russia, whereas reductions in Argentina supplies and exports indicate a shift to U.S. supplies for Brazil. Foreign wheat feeding is lower mostly reflecting a 1.0-million-ton reduction for the European Union where increased exports reduce supplies available to the domestic market. Larger barley supplies in the European Union this month support a shift to barley feeding. Global wheat ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly on increases for China and the United States.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton estimates for 2013/14 are revised slightly to reflect higher production. Production is raised 118,000 bales from last month, due mainly to an increase for Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised to 10.5 million, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 3.0 million bales. The marketing-year average price is projected in a narrower range of 72-77 cents per pound, with the midpoint of 74.5 cents raised marginally from last month.

The 2013/14 world cotton supply and demand estimates include higher production and marginally lower consumption, resulting in an increase of 1. 2 million bales in ending stocks. Production is raised mainly for China, where government classing data indicates that Xinjiang production, which accounts for about 60 percent of the total, may exceed 2012/13. Production also is raised for Argentina, but is reduced for Pakistan, and Pakistan’s consumption also is reduced. World stocks are now projected at 97.6 million bales, with China accounting for 60 percent of the total.







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