USDA June Crop Production Report Text Highlights

June 12, 2012 02:49 AM
 

Winter Wheat Production Down 1 Percent from May

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.68 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the May 1 forecast but 13 percent above 2011. Based on June 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.3 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but 1.1 bushels more than last year. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 35.6 million acres, unchanged from May 1.

Hard Red Winter, at 1.02 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from a month ago. Soft Red Winter production is up slightly from last month and now totals 428 million bushels. White Winter production totals 231 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month. Of this total, 14.1 million bushels are Hard White and 217 million bushels are Soft White.

May Weather Summary

Warmer- and drier-than-normal weather in May reduced topsoil moisture from the central and southern Plains into the Mid-South and lower Midwest. In those areas, the warm, dry conditions hastened winter wheat maturation at the expense of some production potential, but promoted an early start to the harvest season. In addition, diminishing moisture reserves led to an increase in stress on pastures and rain-fed summer crops.

In contrast, beneficial showers eased or eradicated dry conditions across portions of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Atlantic Coast States, stabilizing crop and pasture conditions. Some of the heaviest rain fell late in the month, when a series of cold fronts traversed the Nation's Northern Tier and Tropical Storm Beryl soaked the southern Atlantic region. Another area that received much-needed rainfall during May was the Rio Grande Valley and neighboring areas in parts of New Mexico and southern and western Texas.

Meanwhile, a period of warm, dry weather in California and the Northwest allowed for accelerated planting and crop development, following a slow start to the growing season. Cool, showery conditions returned, however, late in the month. Elsewhere, hot, dry weather in the Southwest maintained severe stress on rangeland and pastures, triggered an early end to the snow-melt season, and fostered the spread of wildfires. In fact, near- to above-normal temperatures covered the Nation, except for some slightly cooler-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal at several Southwestern locations and in a broad swath stretching from the central and southern Plains into the Midwestern and northern Mid-Atlantic States.

May Agricultural Summary

Temperatures during May were warmer than normal across much of the United States, promoting rapid fieldwork and crop development. Most notably, monthly averages were more than 6 degrees above normal in a band stretching from the central Great Plains to the Northeast. Record breaking temperatures quickly matured the developing winter wheat crop, leading to a record-setting harvest pace in some locations. With the exception of portions of the Northern Tier, Texas, and most of the Atlantic Coast States where rainfall totaled 200 percent or more above average, precipitation was scarce in throughout much of the country. In portions of the Southwest, Great Plains, and Delta, rainfall totaled less than 5 percent of normal as soil moisture conditions continued to deteriorate.

Despite early-month rainfall, corn planting advanced at a double-digit pace throughout much the Corn Belt. By May 6, producers had planted 71 percent of the Nation's crop, 39 percentage points ahead of last year and 24 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. With above average temperatures providing favorable growing conditions, nearly one-third of the corn crop had emerged by May 6. Fieldwork was rapid mid-month in many States, and by May 20, planting was 96 percent complete Nationwide, the quickest pace on record. Boosted by warm temperatures and mostly adequate soil moisture levels throughout the Midwest, crop development continued at a rapid pace during the latter half of the month. By June 3, emergence had advanced to 97 percent complete, 22 percentage points ahead of last year and 14 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 72 percent of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3, compared with 77 percent on May 20 and 67 percent from the same time last year.

As May began, recently planted sorghum fields in northern Texas were reported as growing well, but in need of additional moisture to sustain crop development as some fields showed signs of drought stress. By May 6, producers Nationwide had planted 29 percent of this year's crop, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. As planting in the lower Delta and Texas was nearing completion by May 13, producers in Kansas, the largest sorghum-producing State, had planted 10 percent of their crop with fieldwork progressing at a steady pace. Mostly sunny skies provided ample time for fieldwork during the second half of May, with double-digit progress evident in over half of the major estimating States during both the week ending May 20 and May 27. In Texas, head development was 58 percent complete by June 3, with 20 percent of the crop reported as coloring. Sweltering temperatures, little to no rainfall, and windy conditions in Kansas caused a decline in crop condition ratings toward month's end. Nationally, 74 percent of the sorghum crop was planted by June 3, twenty-one percentage points ahead of last year and 20 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, half of this year's crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3. Due to the accelerated planting and crop development pace this year, comparable data from last year was not available.

Sunny weather and mostly adequate soil moisture reserves provided nearly ideal growing conditions throughout much of the major oat-producing regions. Emergence was advancing at a rapid pace and neared completion by May 6. Heading was underway but limited to Iowa, Ohio, and Texas by May 13. In Texas, producers were baling or green chopping their crop to help boost forage supplies depleted by ongoing dry conditions and limited pasture grass availability. Emergence was 96 percent complete by May 20, seventeen percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Above average temperatures promoted rapid crop development throughout the month. Over half of the Nation's oat crop was at or beyond the heading stage by June 3, with harvest for grain 25 percentage points ahead of normal in Texas as the crop dried down quickly under hot daytime temperatures. Overall, 72 percent of the oat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3, compared with 75 percent on May 6 and 58 percent from the same time last year.

Double-digit seeding was evident in the five major barley-producing States as May began. While seeding was most rapid in Washington, overall progress was behind normal due to previously wet fields. Favorable growing conditions pushed emergence well ahead of both last year and normal. By May 13, seeding was 93 percent complete, 25 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average, with 56 percent of the barley crop emerged, 21 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. With the exception of Washington where below average temperatures limited seed germination late in the month, warm temperatures dominated much of the Northern Tier throughout May. By June 3, emergence was 96 percent complete, 41 percentage points ahead of last year and 15 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average, with heading underway and ahead of normal in portions of the Northern Tier. Overall, 69 percent of the barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3. With the accelerated pace of crop development this year, comparable data from last year was not available.

By May 6, sixty-three percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 29 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. In Kansas, the largest producing State, heading was nearing completion as above average temperatures had crop development 72 percentage points, or approximately 3 weeks, ahead of normal; however, soil moisture was scarce in the major wheat growing areas of the State. Harvest was underway in Texas and was expected to gain speed in the coming weeks. Favorable growing conditions pushed heading in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio 40 percentage points or more ahead or normal by May 13. While heading was complete or nearly complete in most southern locations by May 27, rapid crop development was evident across much of the Northern Tier and into the Great Lakes region. With hot, dry weather quickly maturing the winter wheat crop, harvest was underway across much of the South earlier than normal. In Kansas, some southern wheat fields were being harvested by May 27, marking the earliest start since 1952. Nationally, 88 percent of the 2012 winter wheat crop was at or beyond the heading stage by June 3, eight percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty percent of the crop was harvested, 17 percentage points ahead of normal. In Arkansas, harvest neared completion nearly one month ahead of normal as hot temperatures throughout the growing season quickly matured the crop. During the latter half of May, unusually dry conditions and record breaking temperatures in the Great Plains negatively impacted the developing crop. Overall, 52 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3, compared with 63 percent on May 6 and 34 percent from the same time last year.

Spring wheat producers had sown 84 percent of this year's crop by May 6, sixty-five percentage points ahead of last year and 35 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Seeding in Minnesota and North Dakota, two of the top three producing States, was 45 percentage points or more ahead of normal as mild winter temperatures and favorable conditions provided ample time for spring fieldwork. Warm temperatures and beneficial soil moisture levels in most areas promoted rapid crop development throughout the month. By May 20, seeding was 99 percent complete, 49 percentage points ahead of last year and 21 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence had advanced to 86 percent complete, 36 percentage points ahead of normal. In North Dakota, above average temperatures aided crop development mid-month; however, hot, windy weather depleted soil moisture levels in some locations. Nationally, 3 percent of the spring wheat crop was headed by June 3. Despite cooler than normal temperatures at month's end and into June, heading in South Dakota was 20 percentage points ahead of the average pace. Overall, 78 percent of the spring wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3, compared with 74 percent on May 20. With the accelerated pace of crop development this year, comparable data from last year was not available.

Nearly one-quarter of the Nation's soybean crop was planted by May 6, with progress ahead of normal in all major estimating States except Iowa and Wisconsin. In Iowa, persistent rainfall had limited fieldwork. As the month began, emergence was most advanced in the Delta. Nearly ideal weather conditions supported double-digit planting progress in most States mid-month. By May 20, planting was 76 percent complete, the quickest pace on record. Thirty-five percent of the soybean crop had emerged, 22 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As sunny skies and warm temperatures continued toward month's end, fieldwork and crop development in the soybean producing regions of the country continued at a torrid pace. By June 3, producers had planted 94 percent of this year's crop, with progress 20 percentage points or more ahead of normal in 11 of the 18 major estimating States. Emergence had advanced to 79 percent complete. Overall, 65 percent of the soybean crop was reported in good to excellent condition. With the accelerated pace of crop development this year, comparable data from last year was not available.

With planting just beginning in Virginia, 30 percent of the 2012 peanut crop was in the ground by May 6, fourteen percentage points ahead of last year and 16 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Despite unusually dry fields, producers in Georgia were planting their crop at a rapid pace with hopes of receiving a soaking rain soon. Above average mid-month rainfall in parts of the South improved soil moisture conditions, aiding not only fieldwork but crop growth as well. Toward month's end, producers in Georgia reported poor seed germination despite better planting conditions when compared with last year. Tropical Storm Beryl dumped heavy rainfall on portions of the Southeast and Atlantic Coast States; however, peanut planting continued at a steady pace. By June 3, producers had planted 93 percent of this year's crop, 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 61 percent of the peanut crop was reported in good to excellent condition. With the accelerated pace of planting and crop development this year, comparable data from last year was not available.

As the month began, cotton producers were planting this year's crop at the quickest pace since 2006, with double-digit progress evident throughout much of the Cotton Belt during the week ending May 6. In Texas, progress was limited as producers in the High Plains continued to water their fields ahead of planting. Squaring was evident in a few isolated locations in the South by mid-month, as warm temperatures promoted rapid crop development. Producers with irrigation capabilities in parts of the Southeast were watering their fields to sustain crop growth as below average precipitation compounded the effects of drought conditions in the region. The brisk planting pace continued under mostly sunny skies throughout the month. By June 3, eighty-seven percent of the Nation's cotton crop was planted, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Squaring had advanced to 11 percent complete, 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 54 percent of the cotton crop was reported in good to excellent condition on June 3. With the accelerated pace of planting and crop development this year, comparable data from last year was not available. In Texas, late-month storms brought strong winds and blowing dust to the Panhandle, damaging a portion of the recently emerged crop.

Crop Comments

Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.68 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the May 1 forecast but up 13 percent from 2011. Based on June 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.3 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from the previous forecast but up 1.1 bushels from last year. Expected grain area totals 35.6 million acres, unchanged from last month. As of June 3, fifty-two percent of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 18 points above the same week in 2011. By June 3, eighty-eight percent of the crop had headed, 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average and harvest was 20 percent complete, 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in all States except Colorado and Montana. Continued dry conditions in Colorado and Nebraska resulted in lower forecasted yields. By June 3, harvest progress in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas was significantly ahead of the 5-year average. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Missouri and Ohio but below in Illinois. Improved growing conditions in Missouri raised yield expectations from last month. As of June 3, crop development was running ahead of normal and harvest had begun in Illinois and Missouri. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are below last year. As of June 3, the percent of the crop rated in good to excellent condition was 77 points or higher in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 25.2 million bushels, down 4 percent from May but up 23 percent from last year. With continued above normal temperatures in Southern California, crop harvest is well underway. If realized, California's yield of 110.0 bushels per acre will tie a record high.

 

 


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