USDA: No Change in Next Year’s Milk Output But Stronger Demand

December 11, 2012 10:07 AM
USDA: No Change in Next Year’s Milk Output But Stronger Demand

Today’s WASDE report projects higher dairy exports and prices in 2013.

USDA left its 2012 and 2013 U.S. milk production forecasts unchanged from last month in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released today.

The nation’s milk output is expected to reach 199.7 billion pounds this year and next.
While USDA projects lower dairy exports this year, it raised its estimate for 2013 exports due to higher demand, especially for cheese and whey protein solids shipments.

Cheese prices were forecast lower in 2012 on current weakness, but the WASDE forecast was raised for 2013 as demand is expected to improve. USDA lowered price forecasts for butter prices for both 2012 and 2013 as demand is expected to remain relatively weak. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices were raised for 2012 and 2013.

USDA forecast a lower Class III price for 2012 based on the lower cheese price, but left the Class IV price outlook unchanged as the lower butter price is offset by a higher NDM price. For 2013, Class III and Class IV price forecasts were raised as prices for cheese, NDM, and whey were increased.

The 2012 All-Milk price was unchanged from last month at $18.50 to $18.60 per cwt., but the range of the 2013 price is tightened to $19.15 to $19.95 per cwt., down slightly from November’s 2013 project of $19.10 to $20.00 per cwt.

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