USDA Prospective Plantings: USDA Commentary for Key Crops

March 30, 2010 07:00 PM
 


AgWeb.com Editors

Corn:  Growers intend to plant 88.8 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2010, up 3 percent from both last year and 2008. Planted acreage is expected to be up in many States due to reduced winter wheat acreage and expectations of improved net returns.

The largest increases are expected in Illinois and Kansas, both up 600,000 acres from last year. Ohio and Missouri corn acreage is expected to be up 350,000 and 300,000 acres, respectively. The largest declines are expected in Iowa, down 200,000 acres, Texas, down 150,000 acres, and Louisiana, down 100,000 acres.

Sorghum: The 2010 sorghum area intended to be planted for all purposes is estimated at 6.36 million acres, down 4 percent from 2009. Producers in Kansas intend to plant 2.70 million acres, unchanged from last year. The largest decline is expected in Texas, where farmers intend to plant 300,000 acres less than 2009. Planting was underway in early March in the Coastal Bend region of Texas, as 24 percent of the State's crop was planted by March 21, five percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Oats:  Growers intend to plant an estimated 3.36 million acres, down 1 percent from the 3.40 million acres planted in 2009. If realized, this will be the second lowest planted acreage on record. Most of the decrease in acreage is expected to be in the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain States, and the Southeast. The largest decrease is expected to occur in North Dakota, where growers intend to plant 320,000 acres, 30,000 less than last year. The largest increase is in Texas, where 650,000 acres are expected, an increase
of 50,000 acres from 2009.

Barley:  Producers intend to plant 3.27 million acres for the 2010 crop year, down 8 percent from the previous year. If realized, this will be the lowest barley planted acreage on record, well below the previous record low of 3.45 million acres established in 2006. Planted area is expected to total 980,000 acres in North Dakota, the largest barley-producing State, down 230,000 acres or 19 percent from 2009. If realized, this will establish a new record low for the State. Planted acreage is also anticipated to decline to record low levels in South Dakota and Utah.

Winter Wheat:  The 2010 winter wheat planted area is estimated at 37.7 million acres, down 13 percent from 2009 but up 2 percent from the Winter Wheat Seedings report. This is the lowest United States total since 1970 and record lows are estimated in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio. States with notable acreage increases from the previous estimate were Nebraska and Texas, up 100,000 and 200,000 acres, respectively. Of the 2010 total acreage, about 28.3 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.0 million
acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.4 million acres are White Winter. Winter wheat conditions declined over the winter in several States. Adequate moisture levels were reported throughout much of the Great Plains.

Durum Wheat:  Area seeded to Durum wheat is estimated at 2.22 million acres, down 13 percent from 2009. Planted acreage is expected to be down in all producing States except Idaho. Growers in North Dakota and Montana intend to reduce acreage from last year by 150,000 and 70,000 acres, respectively.

Other Spring Wheat:  Growers intend to plant 13.9 million acres this year, up 5 percent from 2009. Of the total, about 13.3 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The largest expected acreage increases are in Montana and North Dakota, up 400,000 and 250,000, respectively. Growers in Minnesota intend to plant 100,000 fewer acres than last year.

Rice:  Area planted to rice in 2010 is expected to total 3.41 million acres, up 9 percent from 2009. Acreage in all rice-producing States is expected to increase from the previous year, mainly due to the higher price of rice compared to other commodities such as corn and soybeans. Growers in Arkansas, the largest rice-producing State, intend to plant 1.63 million acres, up 10 percent from last year. California growers intend to plant 600,000 acres to rice, an increase of 7 percent from last year, and planted area in Louisiana is expected to total 510,000 acres, 9 percent higher than last season.

Long grain planted acreage, representing 75 percent of the total, is expected to be up 12 percent from last year. Medium grain planted acreage, representing 23 percent of the total, is expected to decrease 1 percent from 2009 due to anticipated decreases in all States except California. Area to be planted to short grain varieties, which accounts for 2 percent of total
acres, is down 1,000 acres from 2009.

Hay:  Producers expect to harvest 60.5 million acres of all hay in 2010, up 1 percent from 2009. Harvested area is expected to increase from last year throughout most of the Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and Coastal Plains. The largest increases in acreage harvested are expected in Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin. Compared with last year, producers in Missouri and Texas intend to harvest 220,000 and 180,000 more acres, respectively, while growers in Montana and Kentucky expect to harvest 100,000 and
70,000 less acres, respectively.

Soybeans:  Growers intend to plant an estimated 78.1 million acres in 2010, up less than 1 percent from the acreage planted in 2009 and the largest on record, if realized. Compared with last year, increases in planted area are expected across the Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt. The largest increases are expected in Iowa and Kansas, up 300,000 and 400,000 acres from last year, respectively. Meanwhile, planted area is expected to decline from last year or remain the same across the Delta and Southeastern States with
decreases of more than 100,000 acres expected in Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. If intentions are realized, the planted acreage in Kansas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania will be the largest on record.

Peanuts:  Growers intend to plant 1.20 million acres of peanuts in 2010, up 8 percent from the previous year. An increase in planted area is expected in the Southeast and Virginia-Carolina regions while peanut acreage is expected to decrease in the Southwest region.

Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) intend to plant 925,000 acres of peanuts, an increase of 9 percent from 2009. In Georgia, the largest peanut-producing State, planted area is expected to increase 6 percent from last season to 540,000 acres. Plantings in the Virginia-North Carolina region are expected to total 100,000 acres, up 27 percent from 2009. The increase in planted area in these two regions is due to the expectation of higher contract prices and the anticipated decrease
of corn and soybean acres.

Growers in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 176,000 acres, down 5 percent from the previous year. Growers in this region expect to plant more acres to cotton this year.

Sunflower:  Growers intend to plant a total of 2.18 million acres in 2010, up 7 percent from last year but down 13 percent from 2008. Area intended for oil type varieties, at 1.71 million acres, is up less than 1 percent from 2009. The area intended for non-oil varieties, estimated at 467,000 acres, is up 41 percent from last year.

North Dakota sunflower growers intend to plant 975,000 acres in 2010, up 90,000 acres from 2009. Compared with last year, six of the nine major sunflower-producing States are expecting an increase in planted area in 2010, with only Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas showing decreases in expected acreage.

Canola:  Producers intend to plant 1.23 million acres in 2010, up 49 percent from 2009. Compared with last year, planted area is expected to increase in the six major canola-producing States, with acreage in Minnesota and Montana expected to more than double the previous year's area. Producers in North Dakota, the leading canola State, intend to plant 1.06 million acres, up 330,000 acres from last year.

Flaxseed:  Producers intend to plant 420,000 acres of flaxseed in 2010, up 32 percent from last year. Planted area is expected to increase or remain unchanged from last year in all estimating States. In North Dakota, the largest flaxseed-producing State, growers intend to plant 395,000 acres, 100,000 acres more than was planted in 2009.

Cotton:  Area planted to cotton for 2010 is expected to total 10.5 million acres, up 15 percent from last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 10.3 million acres, 15 percent above last year. American-Pima cotton growers intend to plant 190,000 acres, up 34 percent from last year. Producers intend to plant more acres of cotton due to higher cotton prices over the last few months.

Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) intend to plant 1.73 million acres, a 6 percent increase from the previous year. Farmers in Mississippi expect to plant 340,000 acres, 11 percent more than last year. Louisiana producers intend to plant 200,000 acres, down 13 percent from last year and the lowest on record. In Arkansas, producers intend to plant 520,000 acres, unchanged from last year. Tennessee producers, at 380,000 acres, intend to plant 27 percent more
than last year.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) growers intend to plant 2.39 million acres, an increase of 26 percent from last year. Georgia producers intend to plant 1,150,000 acres, up 15 percent from last year. North Carolina, at 540,000 acres, is 44 percent more than 2009. Alabama producers intend to
plant 360,000 acres, up 41 percent from last year. In South Carolina, producers intend to plant 175,000 acres, up 52 percent from 2009.

Upland cotton producers in Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas intend to plant 5.91 million acres, a 12 percent increase from last year. Texas producers intend to plant 5.60 million acres, up 600,000 acres from last year. In Southern Texas, planting is underway. Oklahoma producers intend to plant 240,000 acres, up 17 percent from last year.

Upland planted acreage in Arizona and California is expected to total 285,000 acres, up 32 percent from last year. California farmers are expected to plant 100,000 acres, an increase of 41 percent and the first increase since 2004. The significant increase stems from an improved water outlook and decreased demand for competitive crops. Arizona producers intend to plant 185,000 acres, up 28 percent from last year.

American-Pima acreage intentions are 190,000 acres, an increase of 34 percent from 2009. California producers intend to plant 165,000 acres of American-Pima, up 46,000 acres from last year. Expected area is unchanged in Texas, where producers intend to plant 18,000 acres.


Here's a link to the full report.


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