USDA: World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates -- Text Highlights

May 10, 2013 07:03 AM
 

 

WHEAT:

U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13.

Wheat production is projected at 2,057 million bushels, down 9 percent from last year with reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter wheat. The all wheat yield, projected at 44.1 bushels per acre, is down 2.2 bushels from the record levels of 2012/13 and 2010/11.

The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains. Partly offsetting is higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production with higher area. Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat.
 

Total U.S. wheat use for 2013/14 is projected down 7 percent year-to-year with lower domestic use and exports. Feed and residual disappearance is projected 70 million bushels lower as larger supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2013/14 limit wheat feeding by late summer. Partly offsetting is a 13-million-bushel increase in domestic food use as flour extraction rates fall from a very high level in 2012/13 and consumption grows with population.

Exports for 2013/14 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 100 million from the 2012/13 projection. Large crops for major export competitors limit opportunities for U.S. wheat. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fourth consecutive year. At 670 million bushels, ending stocks would be down 61 million bushels from the 2012/13 projection. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.15 to $7.45 per bushel, down from the record $7.80 projected for 2012/13 as world prices for wheat and coarse grains are expected to decline sharply by fall.
 

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are projected 3 percent higher than in 2012/13 with a 51.2-million-ton increase in foreign production more than offsetting a 19.3-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks and lower forecast production in the United States. At the projected 701.1 million tons, global production would be a record and up 45.5 million from 2012/13.

Production for 2013/14 is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries with the largest increases expected in the FSU-12 and EU-27, up 29.9 million tons and 6.7 million tons, respectively. Production is projected higher for Australia, Argentina, and Canada, up a collective 6.2 million tons from the current year. Also affecting global trade prospects in 2013/14 are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favorable for winter crops since seeding last fall.
 

Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are projected higher than in 2012/13 with increases expected for FSU-12, Argentina, and India more than offsetting reductions for EU-27 and Australia. Global wheat consumption is projected 20.0 million tons higher with increases in both feeding and food use. Wheat feed and residual use is raised for FSU-12 and EU-27 with larger production. The largest increase in food use is for India, but lower prices support small increases for many countries. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 186.4 million tons, up 6.2 million on the year.
 

COARSE GRAINS:
 

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 400.5 million tons, up 25 percent from 2012/13 with higher area and yields expected for corn, sorghum, and oats.

Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96. The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February (www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Westcott_Jewison.pdf). The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields.

Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13. U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected up 16 percent from 2012/13 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch, and a partial recovery in exports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is projected up 925 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices. Projected corn use for ethanol is increased 250 million bushels from this month’s higher projection for 2012/13. Lower corn prices and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) support profitability for ethanol producers.
 

U.S. corn exports for 2013/14 are projected 550 million bushels higher than this month’s lower projection for 2012/13. At the projected 1.3 billion bushels, 2013/14 exports are expected to rebound from their lowest level since 1970/71. An expected fourth straight year of record foreign corn production with large crops in South America and the FSU-12 will provide substantial competition for the United States. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.0 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion from 2012/13. The season-average farm price at $4.30 to $5.10 per bushel is down sharply from the record $6.70 to $7.10 for 2012/13.
 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 1,407.6 million tons, up 113.8 million from 2012/13. Global corn production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons. Foreign corn production is up 23.5 million tons. The largest increases are projected for the FSU-12, EU-27, and China, but large crops are again expected in 2013/14 for Brazil and Argentina. Global corn trade is projected higher with increased imports for China more than offsetting a reduction for EU-27.

Spurred by lower prices, smaller year-to-year import increases are projected for a number of countries. Exports are lowered for Brazil, India, and Argentina, but raised for Ukraine and EU-27. World corn consumption is projected at arecord 936.7 million tons, up 72.8 million from 2012/13 with foreign consumption up 41.5 million. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected up 29.2 million tons on the year. At 154.6 million tons, stocks would be a 13-year high.

OILSEEDS:
 

U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 2012/13.

Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Sunflowerseed, peanut, and cottonseed production are each projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on slightly higher harvested area and higher yields. Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bushels per acre, up 4.9 bushels from 2012. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2012/13. Additional soybean meal exports for 2012/13 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged. Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012/13 are also unchanged from last month. The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million from 2012/13 reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption and exports.

Despite increased competition from South America, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast higher on sharply lower prices. Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels, up 100 million from 2012/13 on increased supplies and competitive prices. Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012/13. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel compared with $14.30 per bushel in 2012/13. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $280-$320 per short ton and 47-51 cents per pound, respectively.
 

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 491.3 million tons, up 4.7 percent from 2012/13 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6 percent. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2012/13 on record planted area and higher yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2012/13 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. If realized, harvested area at 6.6 million hectares would be down 28 percent in the past 4 years.
 

Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected up 6.1 percent from 2012/13 on increased rapeseed production in Canada, India, EU-27, and Ukraine, and increased sunflowerseed production in Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Oilseed supplies are up 5.1 percent from 2012/13. With crush projected to increase 3.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, up 12.3 million. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.7 percent in 2013/14. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.3 percent in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains.

Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons, up 11.3 percent from 2012/13. China soybean imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012/13 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to rise 3 percent in 2013/14, led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.

COTTON:
 

The U.S. cotton projections for 2013/14 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2012/13.

Projected production is reduced 19 percent to 14.0 million bales, based on regional average abandonment and yields. Abandonment for the Southwest region is projected at 25 percent due to continued drought conditions. Domestic mill use is projected at 3.5 million bales, 100,000 bales above 2012/13. Exports are projected at 11.5 million bales, down 13 percent from 2012/13, due to the smaller available domestic supply and lower imports by China.

Ending stocks are reduced to 3.0 million bales, equal to 20 percent of total use, which is well below the previous 10-year average. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 68.0 to 88.0 cents per pound, compared with 72.0 cents estimated for 2012/13.
 

The initial 2013/14 world cotton projections show world ending stocks of nearly 93 million bales, the third consecutive seasonal record, as China’s policy of stockpiling cotton in its national reserve is assumed to continue. World production is projected nearly 3 percent lower than 2012/13 at 117.8 million bales, as reductions, mainly for the United States, China, Turkey, Greece, and Mexico, are partially offset by increases for Brazil, India, Pakistan, and Australia. World consumption is expected to rise 2 percent due to modest growth in world GDP. World trade is expected to fall 12 percent, as sharply lower imports by China and India are partially offset by increases for Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico and others.

World ending stocks outside of China are projected to fall nearly 2.0 million bales. China’s national reserve stocks are currently expected to reach nearly 40 million bales at the end of 2012/13. Based on the government of China’s current reserve purchase and release prices and import quota policies, USDA is projecting that China will import 12.0 million bales in 2013/14 and will add 10 million bales to ending stocks as reserve purchases exceed reserve sales. The resulting projected China ending stocks of 58.2 million bales would account for 63 percent of world stocks.
 

For 2012/13, the final U.S. crop production estimate of 17.3 million bales is virtually unchanged from last month. U.S. exports are raised 250,000 bales, reflecting recent activity and stronger expected imports by China, which are raised 1.8 million bales from last month. India’s production and consumption also show significant increases.


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