USDA's Glauber Outlines Expectations for Crops, Livestock in 2010

February 17, 2010 06:00 PM

Roger Bernard, Farm Journal Policy & Washington Editor

U.S. corn producers are expected to plant 89.0 million acres in 2010, up 2.5 million acres from 2009 and the highest tally since 2007, according to USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber. For soybeans, Glauber told the USDA Outlook Forum today he expects plantings will be 77 million acres, down 500,000 from 2009.

For wheat, Glauber said total acres are expected at 53.8 million, down 5.3 million from 2009. With winter wheat seedings down 6.2 million from 2009, Glauber said higher spring wheat seedings are expected in the U.S. Northern Plains. While ending stocks will decline modestly in 2010-11, Glauber said the season-average farm price is still forecast at $4.90 per bushel.

On cotton, USDA sees plantings at 10.5 million as stronger GDP around the globe has provided a slight boost to textile demand. U.S. exports are forecast at 12.6 million bales and when combined with domestic demand, carryover is forecast at about 3.4 million bales.

Total use for soybeans is seen down 4.5% in 2010-11 against a crop of 3.25 billion bushels, which Glauber said will mean soybean carryover climbing to 330 million bushels. USDA sees soybean crush at 1.65 billion bu. as meal exports are seen down from 2009-10. For soybean prices, USDA expects the season average price at $8.80 bu. per acre.

For 2010-11 corn, Glauber said production is expected at a record 13.2 billion bu., with use of 13.24 billion bu., up 1% from the 2009-10 season. Corn ending stocks are seen declining 4% from year-ago and that is expected to put the season-average corn price at $3.60 per bushel.

For the eight major crops, Glauber said USDA sees total area at 247.3 million, down slightly from 2009 and down some 5.6 million from 2008.

On the livestock side, Glauber said U.S. beef exports are expected to rise about 9% in 2010 compared to 2009, with a decline in U.S. per capita beef consumption of about 2%.

U.S. pork exports are also forecast to rise 9% in 2010, but Glauber said expectations are for U.S. per capita pork consumption will slip more than 5% on declining production and more U.S. pork exports.

U.S. broiler production is seen up just over 1% as producers have seen improved prices in recent months. Exports, however, Glauber warned, could decline by 15% on trade disruptions "in a number of countries."

Milk production is also expected to decline again in 2010, although it is seen down just 0.2%, Glauber said.

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