USFR Weekly Recap - April 11, 2015, 2014, 2015, 2015

April 11, 2015 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON USFR
APRIL 11-12, 2015

HEADLINES:
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS WEEKEND.A BUMPER CROP? SOME SAY SOUTH AMERICA'S CROP JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER. WE'LL SEE IF OUR ANALYSTS AGREE.WATER CRISIS. AS CALIFORNIA FARMERS AND RANCHERS STRUGGLE WITH A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF DROUGHT, THE PRESSURE IS HEATING UP FOR THEM TO DO MORE...WE'LL SEE WHAT'S ALREADY BEING DONE, AND WHY AGRICULTURE IS COMING UNDER FIRE,AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.
APRIL S&D:
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK, JUST A WEEK AFTER USDA RELEASED ITS PROSPECTIEVE PLANTINGS REPORT, WE WERE HIT WITH MORE NUMBERS WITH THE LATEST SUPPLY AND DEMAND FIGURES.
BULLISH ON COTTON:
GRAIN PRICES MAY BE STRUGGLING, BUT RABOBANK REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH ON COTTON. THE FIRM THINKS COTTON FUTURES WILL END THE YEAR AT 73 CENTS A POUND.
THE DECEMBER CONTRACT ALREADY JUMPED 4 DOLLARS SINCE JANUARY. COTTON PRICES HAVE BEEN TOO LOW TO ATTRACT MANY ACRES. AND RABOBANK SAYS WITH FEWER ACRES HERE AND IN CHINA, PRICES WILL GROW.
PLANTING PROGRESS:
 MEANWHILE, COTTON PLANTING IS ALREADY OFF TO A LATE START. IN ITS FIRST CROP PROGRESS REPORT OF THE YEAR, USDA SHOWS 2 PERCENT OF THE COTTON CROP IS IN THE GROUND. THAT'S FOUR POINTS BEHIND BOTH LAST YEAR AND AVERAGE. SORGHUM PLANTING IS 6 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE, AT 9 PERCENT COMPLETE AND THE RICE CROP IS 14 PERCENT PLANTED. THAT'S RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LAST YEAR, BUT LAGGING FOUR POINTS FROM AVERAGE.
WHEAT PRODUCTION:
THE SAME REPORT ALSO SHOWED WHEAT CONDITIONS NATIONWIDE.USDA SAYS 19 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS POOR TO VERY POOR, WITH 35% IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION.THE NUMBERS SHOW NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE THE WORST WHEAT CONDITIONS SO FAR. WITH CALIFORNIA, MONTANA AND OHIO POSTING THE BEST CROP RATINGS.
BRAZIL WHEAT IMPORTS:
 U-S WHEAT EXPORTS ARE TAKING ANOTHER HIT. THIS TIME FROM BRAIZL THE COUNTRY SAYS IT'S CUTTING IMPORTS FROM THE U-S BY 60 PERCENT. THAT'S AS THE SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRY SAYS IT'S GOING TO BUY MORE FROM ARGENTINA.
SOUTH AMERICAN CROP:
STRONG YIELD REPORTS OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA ARE SPARKING TALKS OF AN EVEN BIGGER SOYBEAN CROP.PROFARMER CONSULTANT DR MICHAEL CORDONNIER {CORE-DONE-EE-AIR} RAISED THE BRAZIL CROP TO 93 POINT 5 MILLION METRIC TONNES. THAT'S UP 500 THOUSAND METRIC TONNES. AND HE THINKS ARGENTINA'S CROP WILL BE 1 MILLION METRIC TONS LARGEST THAN EXPECTED, NOT AT 58 MILLION.
 PITCH TO MIKE:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, SOME NASTY WEATHER MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. WILL THAT CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL?
TEASE ONE:
THANKS MIKE. MORE USDA REPORTS TO BREAK DOWN, AS WELL AS SOME ACTUAL CROP CONDITIONS TO DISCUSS. KEVIN DUHLING AND NAOMI BLOHM JOIN ME NEXT.
JOHN’S WORLD PITCH:
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, JOHN GETS PRETTY ANXIOUS TO PLANT, AND EVEN THOUGH HIS SON AARON IS STARTING TO TAKE THE REIGNS, IT DOESN'T MEAN JOHN ISN'T STILL ON EDGE, ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR. JOHN.
JOHN’S WORLD:
WELL, YOU CAN PUT A FORK IN THIS WEEK. WE HAD JUST GOTTEN STARTED WITH THE DREADED FIRST DAY ACCOMPLISHED, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED LEAKS, ADJUSTMENTS AND CALIBRATIONS. TO BE SURE WE WERE PUSHING THE GROUND A LITTLE, CLOSING OUR EYES TO SLIGHTLY OVER-MOIST SOILS BECAUSE ALL THE OTHER GUYS WERE GOING.
THEN NATURE INTERVENED WITH SHOWERS. NOTHING TOO HEAVY…YET…BUT NOW WE'RE TACKING 5-6 DAYS ONTO OUR STARTING DATE TO GET BACK INTO THE FIELDS.
THIS YEAR SEEMS AND TRULY IS MORE PRESSURIZED FOR MOST OF US. THE COST-PRICE SQUEEZE IS EVER-PRESENT IN OUR MINDS. WHICH MEANS THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE WORKED WITH IN RECENT YEARS. SO PRETENDING TO DO SOMETHING USEFUL WHILE WAITING TO GET TO THE FIELD IS A LITTLE HARDER…MANY FARMERS HANDLE THIS ENFORCED IDLENESS WITH SERENITY. I'VE NEVER QUITE MASTERED THAT ART. INSTEAD I'VE ALWAYS FELT THAT THIS MOMENT MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEATHER-WORRY SEASON. FROM NOW UNTIL THE END OF FALL OPERATIONS, NOTHING MATTERS MORE TO MY MOOD THAN WEATHER - NOT EVEN MARKETS.IN FACT, ONE REASON I HAVE ALWAYS LOOKED FORWARD TO WINTER IS THAT BLISSFUL PERIOD WHEN WEATHER CAN'T HURT ME. IT CAN MAKE MY LIFE INCONVENIENT, TO BE SURE, BUT CAN'T RAVAGE MY ECONOMIC FUTURE.  HOWEVER, THIS ANXIETY IS HOW I MAKE MY LIVING. TO BE SURE, WE COULD PAPER OVER UNCERTAINTY WITH VARIOUS FORMS OF GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE INSURANCE, BUT I THINK THAT COULD EAT UP MUCH OF OUR ALREADY THIN MARGINS. THIS YEAR MORE THAN MOST, ENDURING WEATHER RISK MAY BE HOW WE MAKE MOST OF OUR PROFIT. WITHOUT RISK, THERE IS SHOULD BE NO REWARD. SO THE UNEASINESS IN MY STOMACH AS I CONTEMPLATE THE FUTURE IS HOW I WILL EARN MY LIVING. AND MAYBE WITH A LITTLE LUCK, IT WILL HELP ME LOSE THOSE EXTRA WINTER POUNDS AS WELL.
HEADLINES:
WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND ON U-S FARM REPORT. CALIFORNIA WATER CRISIS…OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS YOU WHY THE PRESSURE IS ON AGRICULTURE TO DO EVEN MORE, WHILE FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN JUST TO SURVIVE.  PHILISOPHICAL JOHN. A VIEWER'S QUESTION SPARKS QUTIE THE RESPONSE FROM JOHN PHIPPS. THE GLORY OF COWBOYIN' BAXTER BLACK GIVES US A GLIMPSE INTO THE LIFE OF A COWBOY. AND IN TRACTOR TALES, A JOHN DEERE FROM THE 1950S, THAT BRINGS BACK GOOD MEMORIES FOR A NEBRASKA GUY.
SC CHICKEN ARREST:
SOUTH CAROLINA OFFICIALS ARRESTED A MAN SUSPECTED OF KILLING MORE THAN 300 THOUSAND CHICKENS IN THE STATE.HIS MOTIVE? REVENGE CLARENDON COUNTRY SHERIFF'S OFFICE ARRESTED JAMES LOWERY AND CHARGED HIM WITH DELIBERATELY KILLING THE BIRDS AND COULD FACE 20 YEARS IN JAIL. LOWERY WAS A CONTRACT GROWER FOR PILGRIM'S PRIDE, BUT THE COMPANY TERMINATED THAT RELATIONSHIP. THE ESTIMATED TOTAL PRICETAG OF THE KILLINGS CAME TO 1 POINT 7 MILLON DOLLARS.
FOOD SAFETY:
SOME SMALL FARMS THAT SELL DIRECTLY TO CONSUMERS COULD BE EXEMPTING FROM NEW FOOD SAFETY RULES. AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT THE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION IS PROPOSING. IF THE MEASURE IS APPROVED, ANYONE SELLING PRODUCT THROUGH A ROADSIDE STAND, FARMERS MARKET OR DIRECTLY TO CONSUMERS THROUGH COMMUNITY SUPPORTED AGRICULTURE PROGRAMS, WOULDN'T HAVE TO FOLLOW THE FOOD SAFETY RULES…F-D-A THINKS THIS WOULD HELP PROTECT ABOUT 71 THOUSAND FARMS.
WATER OF THE US:
THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY SAYS THE PROPSED CLEAN WATER ACT IS OFFICALY ON THE MOVE. EPA SENT ITS PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET FOR REVIEW LAST WEEK.  IN A BLOG POST, EPA ADMINISTRATOR GINA MCCARTHY SAYS THE EPA IS CONSIDERING CHANGING SOME 'CONFUSING' LANGUAGE IN THE UPDATED RULE. MCCARTHY WROTE THE EPA WOULD CLEAR-UP DEFINITIONS OF TRIBUTARIES, ADJACENT WATERS, AND UPLAND DITCHES.SOME OF THE BIGGEST COMPLAINTS FROM FARM GROUPS.
GASOLINE CONSUMPTION:
LOW GAS PRICES AREN'T GOING ANYWHERE. AT LEAST NOT BEFORE FALL THE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINSITRATION THINKS MOTORISTS WILL PAY THE LOWEST PRICES AT THE PUMP THIS SUMMER SINCE 2009.THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOKS WHICHS LASTS UNTIL SEPTEMBER SHOWS REGULAR GASOLINE AT 2-45 A GALLON. THAT'S COMPARED TO 3-59 WE SAW DURING THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. IN RETURN, E-I-A EXPECTS GASOLINE CONSUMPTION TO REACH THE HIGEST LEVEL IN 5 YEARS.
RURAL POPULATION:
AMERICA'S RURAL POPULATION JUST KEEPS FADING. ACCORDING TO THE U-S CENSUS BUREAU, THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME WE SAW AN OVERALL POPULATION DECLINE FOR RURAL AREAS OVER SEVERAL YEARS. AS YOU CAN SEE HERE, THE RURAL SECTOR, OR NON-METRO THAT'S IN RED, UNDERWENT A HUGE DECLINE FROM 2006 THROUGH 2013.
THE DROP IS FROM FEWER BIRTHS, MORE DEATHS AND PEOPLE MOVING AWAY.
TORNADO:
MEANWHILE, A RURAL ILLINOIS TOWN FELL VICTIM TO A FATAL TORNADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TAKE A LOOK AT THIS MASSIVE FUNNEL THAT HIT FAIRDALE, IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT KILLED ONE PERSON, INJURED SEVERAL OTHERS AND DESTROYED HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN ITS PATH.
 CALIFORNIA DROUGHT FJR:
CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE IS UNDER SCRUTINY RIGHT NOW.IT'S A STATE THAT'S VERY DIVERSE, GROWING MORE THAN 400 CROPS. NEARLY HALF THE NATIONS' FRUITS, VEGETABLES AND NUTS COME FROM THAT ONE STATE. THEY ALSO RANK FIRST IN MILK PRODUCTION. BUT THE CURRENT DROUGHT IS JEAPORDIZING ALL OF THAT. PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA DID RECEIVE RAIN LAST WEEK. BUT IT'S FAR FROM ENOUGH TO CURE THE AREA OF SUCH SEVERE CIRCUMSTANCES. IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE EXPLORE WHAT'S ALREADY BEING DONE TO CONSERVE SUCH A PRECIOUS RESOURCE, AND THE PRESSURE ON AGRICULTURE TO DO EVEN MORE.
FARM JOURNAL REPORT TAG:
THAT 80 PERCENT FIGURE I SAID EARLIER, THAT'S NOW BEING DEBATED AS WELL. THE CALIFORNIA WATER ALLISANCE SAYS FARMERS USE JSUT OVER 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE'S WATER. THAT'S AFTER YOU TAKE THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OUT OF THE EQUATION.
CALIFORNIA FARM BURUEAU PRESIDENT PAUL WENGER IS ALSO TELLING GROWERS THEY NEED TO BE READY FOR TOUGH CONVERSATIONS OVER WATER. WITH THE MANDATORY CUTS, HE SAYS THE DROUGHT JUST BECAME REAL FOR MILLIONS OF CALIFORNIANS. HE'S TELLING GROWERS TO BE HONEST AND FORTHRIGHT, BUT THEY'RE CONVERSATIONS THAT NEED TO HAPPEN. NEXT UP, WE'RE OFF TO JOHN'S FARM.
BAXTER BLACK:
ONLY COWBOYS NOW THE FUN, AND CHALLENGE, THAT COMES AT THEM EVERY DAY. BUT TODAY, BAXTER BLACK TRIES TO GIVE US ALL A HINT AT THE GLORY OF COWBOYING. BAXTER.
TRACTOR TALES:
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. AL, WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR US THIS WEEK? TYNE, WE'VE GOT A VINTAGE 720 FROM NEBRASKA. OUR NEXT COLLECTOR HAS A BIT OF A SOFT SPOT FOR THIS 57 CLASSIC. IT MAY NOT BE THE ORIGINAL, BUT IT BRINGS MEMORIES OF HAPPY TIMES ON THE FARM.
CHURCH SALUTE:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE TODAY DOESN'T FEATURE JUST ONE CHURCH, BUT 26 THAT ARE INCLUDED IN A LARGE CHURCH TOUR EVERY YEAR. IT'S CALLED THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI CHRISTMAS COUNTRY CHURCH TOUR AND HAPPENS IN DECEMBER. IT FEATURES CONGREGATIONS IN THREE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES, BUT ALL OF THE CHURCHES ARE LOCATED EITHER IN COUNTRY TOWNS, OR ACTUALLY IN THE COUNTRY. THEY TELL US THE TOUR CROSSES ALL DENOMINATIONS. OUR THANKS TO JEAN WARREN FOR SHARING THE TOUR WITH US…
GOODBYE:
 FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.

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