USFR Weekly Recap - April 2-3, 2016

April 2, 2016 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
APRIL 2-3, 2016

 

OPENING HEADLINES:
<FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.>
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT HOUR...  PRICE WOES ARE CAUSING WHEAT TO LOSE POPULARITY....  <WE'RE LOSING ACRES TO OTHER CROPS AND ITS JUST BOTTOM LINE>  WHY THE WHEAT INDUSTRY ISN'T GIVING UP... THAT'S  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.   THE ROLLER COASTER WEATHER ISN'T GOING AWAY  ANTYIME SOON...  <WE'RE NOT DONE WITH THE COLD IN PARTS OF THE MDIWEST. I'LL HAVE  MORE IN MY FORECAST>  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...  <IT'S TIME TO PLANT? LET'S LOOK NORTH>
PROSPECTIVE PLANTING REPORT RELEASED: NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK... USDA'S PROSPECTIVE PLANTING REPORT  TURNING HEADS AND KICKING OFF A DROP IN CORN  PRICES.  CORN PLANTINGS IN 2016 ESTIMATED AT 93 POINT 6 MILLION ACRES.  THAT'S UP 6 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR AND HIGHER  THAN ANALYSTS PRE-REPORT EXPECTATIONS.  SOYBEANS COMING IN AT 82 POINT 2 MILLION ACRES.  DOWN ABOUT 1 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR.  ALL WHEAT ACRES FALLING FOR 50 MILLION--DOWN 9  PERCENT FROM 2015 WITH WINTER WHEAT DROPPING 8 PERCENT AND  SPRING WHEAT ACRES EXPECTED TO BE DOWN 14  PERCENT.   COTTON ACRES PICKING UP SOME OF THAT GROUND  CLIMBING 11 PERCENT TO 9 POINT 56 MILLION ACRES.
RAINS IN THE SOUTH SLOW PLANTING PROGRESS:
IN THE SOUTH - PLANTING IS SLOW GOING. CONSTANT RAINS ARE KEEPING FARMERS OUT OF THE   FIELD.  ARKANSAS CORN JUST EIGHT PERCENT PLANTED THIS WEEK.   TYPICALLY IT'S 20-PERCENT BY NOW.  MISSISSIPPI FARMERS ARE IN THE SAME BOAT WITH  CORN PLANTING AT FIVE PERCENT.  LOUISIANA ALSO WITH SIGNIFICANT DELAYS...  TEXAS HOWEVER, STILL RIGHT ON PACE WITH NEARLY 40-PERCENT IN THE GROUND.
ON THE STOCK SIDE:
ON THE STOCKS SIDE OF THE LEDGER, USDA PUTTING  CORN AT 7 POINT 8 BILLION BUSHELS--THAT'S UP 1  PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. SOYBEANS AS OF MARCH FIRST TOTAL 1 POINT 5-3  BILLION BUSHELS.  THAT'S UP 15 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR...ON FARM  STOCKS WERE NEARLY 20 PERCENT HIGHER.  AND ALL WHEAT STOCKS ALSO CLIMBING...NOW 20 PERCENT ABOVE 2015.  CHINA PLANS TO END STOCK PILE OF CORN:
SPEAKING OF STOCKS, THIS WEEK, CHINESE MEDIA  REPORTING THE NATION PLANS TO END ITS NINE-YEAR-OLD CORN STOCKPILING SYSTEM. CHINA CURRENTLY HOLDS MASSIVE STATE RESERVES CONSIDERED THE LARGEST CORN STOCKPILE IN THE  WORLD.  THE COUNTRY INSTEAD PLANNING TO LET MARKETS  DETERMINE DOMESTIC CORN PRICES.   THE REPORTS INDICATE CHINA WILL SUBSIDIZE  FARMERS AND STOP STOCKPILING GRAIN BEGINNING   THIS FALL.  THE U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL SAYS DOMESTIC PRICES IN  CHINA HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ABOUT 30 PERCENT IN THE PAST 6 MONTHS...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE WORLD MARKET.
HOG AND PIG HEAD COUNT IS UP SLIGHTLY FROM LAST YEAR:
USDA'S QUARTERLY HOGS AND PIGS REPORT SHOWS THE NATIONAL HERD AT 67-POINT-SIX MILLION HEAD.  THAT'S UP SLIGHTLY FROM A YEAR AGO. BUT DOWN ONE PERCENT FROM DECEMBER FIRST WHEN THE LAST REPORT WAS ISSUED.  DESPITE THE DECLINE, OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT  THE PORK NETWORK SAYS THE PIG CROP IS BIGGER  THAN MARKET ANALYSTS EXPECTED ....WHICH COULD MEAN LARGER SUPPLIES ARE ON THE HORIZON.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
 THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES.. NOW IT'S TIME TO CHECK IN WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN FOR SHORT-TERM WEATHER. MIKE, WE'RE STILL ON THIS ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OF TEMPS.   WELL THAT'S RIGHT TYNE AND WE'RE STILL GONNA BE  IN MOST OF THIS COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK THE WAY IT LOOKS AS YOU'LL SEE WITH MY FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME, DROGHT MONITOR STARTING TO TURN A LITTLE DRIER THERE.  SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA, THAT'S BEEN SPREADING A LITTLE EASTWARD SO SOME  DRYNESS SHOWING UP IN THE HILLS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS, SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ALSO IN NORTH DAKOTA SEEMS TO BE DRYING OUT A LITTLE BIT.
TEASE:
CRAIG VANDYKE AND ANGIE SETZER ARE IN THE STUDIO THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS THE LATEST ACREAGE REPORT, AS WELL AS BEEF PRICES. THAT DISCUSSION HAPPENS NEXT. 
JOHN’S COMMENTARY:
MIKE MENTIONED THE ROLLERCOASTER WEATHER IN HIS FORECAST, AND WE EVEN TALKED ABOUT IT IN OUR MARKETING DICUSSION. AND THOSE MILD TEMPS MEANS SOME FARMERS HAVE CAUGHT THE SPRING BUG- - THE BUG TO PLANT. JOHN.   AS ONE WIT TWEETED THIS WEEK, THIS SPRING IT  SEEMS LIKE WE SET OUR CLOCKS AHEAD ONE MONTH, NOT ONE HOUR. LIKE MANY OF YOU, WE ARE NOT JUST  IN THE FIELDS IN MARCH, FOR PETE'S SAKE, WE'RE  WORKING WITH RELATIVELY WARM SOILS AND CAB AIR  CONDITIONERS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WE ARE POISED TO PLANT. IF WE HAVE THE NERVE.
TEASE:
THANKS, JOHN. AS FARMERS PREPARE TO PLANT AND  PUT PENCIL TO PAPER, IT SEEMS WHEAT IS LOSING THE  BATTLE THIS YEAR. BUT WHAT'S THE FUTURE HOLD FOR A CHALLENGED INDUSTRY? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNALR EPORT AFTER THE BREAK.
SECOND HALF OPENING:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.   WELCOME BACK TO THIS U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.  WHEAT PLANTINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN MORE THAN 45 YEARS. OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT LOOKS AT WHERE WE GO FROM HERE.  JOHN PHIPPS COVERS HAS PART TWO OF THE COTTON   CONTROVERSY IN HIS CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  BXTER BLACK SHARES A TALE OF A RODEO LEGACY.  AND WE'RE OFF TO TEXAS FOR THIS WEEK'S CLASSIC  TRACTOR. 
VERMONT TO BEGIN GMO LABELING:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...VERMONT'S ATTORNEY  GENERAL RECENTLY ISSUED AN ENFORCEMENT MEMO ON THE STATE'S GMO LABELING LAW.  IT'S SET TO TAKE EFFECT JULY FIRST.   VERMONT ATTORNEY GENERAL SAID LAST WEEK THAT  WHILE THE LAW TAKES EFFECT IN JULY, ALL PRODUCTS  MUST BE PROPERLY LABELED BY JANUARY 1ST, 2017. 


WAL-MART MILK PLANT TO BE BUILT IN INDIANA:
WAL-MART NOW PLANNING TO BUILD ITS FIRST MILK  PROCESSING PLANT THIS SUMMER.   BUT THAT'S LIKELY TO EAT INTO DEAN FOODS  BUSINESS. WAL-MART CURRENTLY ACCOUNTS FOR 16 PERCENT OF  DEAN'S PROCESSING.  THE NEW WAL-MART INDIANA FACILITY IS EXPECTED TO  BE ONE OF THE LARGEST IN THE MILK INDUSTRY AND  WILL BEGIN SUPPLYING THE RETAILER'S PRIVATE LABEL BRAND "GREAT VALUE" NEXT YEAR.   BSE CASE CONFIRMED IN FRANCE:
THE AG MINISTRY FOR FRANCE SAYS ADDITIONAL  TESTING CONFIRMED A CASE OF BSE...IN THAT  COUNTRY.  THE OUTCOME LIKELY TO COMPROMISE FRANCE'S BSE RISK STATUS WITH THE WORLD ORGANIZATION FOR  ANIMAL HEALTH AND COULD RESULT IN SOME BANS ON EXPORTS. 

U.S. BEEF EXPORTS FACE HEADWIND FROM SOUTH AMERICA:
SPEAKING OF TRADE, RABOBANK SAYS U-S BEEF WILL BE GETTING MORE PRESSURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA THIS YEAR.  THE ANALYSTS EXPECT BRAZILIAN BEEF EXPORTS TO INCREASE BY ABOUT ELEVEN PERCENT.   THE WEAKER BRAZILIAN CURRENCY HAS MADE BEEF VERY COMPETITIVE ON INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, AND STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND HAS PUSHED LOCAL MARKET  PRICES HIGHER.   THE HIGH DOMESTIC BEEF PRICES HAVE PUSHED  CONSUMERS TOWARDS CHEAPER PROTEINS, SUCH AS   POULTRY. FARM ECONOMY.  IT'S FORECASTING GLOBAL HEADWINDS TO CONTINUE PRESSURE ON THE U.S. AG INDUSTRY IN 2016. GROWING GLOBAL INVENTORIES, WITHERING EXPORT  DEMAND, A STRONG DOLLAR AND WEAK ECONOMIC  GROWTH ALL WORKING AGAINST FARM INCOMES.
EPA COULD SOON APPROVE WEED KILLER:
 COTTON AND SOYBEAN FARMERS FIGHTING  GLYPHOSATE RESISTANT WEEDS COULD BE ANOTHER  STEP CLOSER TO HELP.   EPA ANNOUNCING TODAY ITS OPENING UP A 30 DAY COMMENT PERIOD FOR DICAMBA IN CROP USE. .   THAT'S THE CHEMISTRY CONTAINING 2-4-D.   MONSANTO'S ROUNDUP READY 2 XTEND SOYBEANS, WHICH INCLUDES DICAMA TOLERANCE, ALREADY   RECEIVED APPROVAL, BUT UNTIL DICAMBA GETS THE  GREEN LIGHT, FARMERS CAN'T APPLY IT OVER THE TOP.    MONSANTO SAYS IF APPROVED, THE DICAMBA HERBICIDE CAN ALSO BE USED WITH BOLLGARD 2  EXTEND FLEX COTTON.
BAYER BATTLES EPA OVER INSECTICIDE:
MEANWHILE, BAYER IS REQUESTING A HEARING BEFORE  AN E-P-A LAW JUDGET REGARDING FLUBENDIAMIDE,  OTHERWISE KNOWN AS BELT. BAYER IS ASKING THE  JUDGE TO DEFEND ITS REGISTRATIONS OF THE  PRODUCT.  EPA ASKED BAYER IN JANUARY TO VOLUNTARY CANCEL REGISTRATION OF BELT, IN INSECTICIDE USED ON MORE THAN 200 CROPS INCLUDING FRUITS AND NUTS.  BAYER REFUSED.  EPA CLAIMS THE INSECTICIDE HAS UNREASONABLE  ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE ENTIRONMENT. BUT   PREPVIOUSLY, EPA AND BAYER CONCLUDED BELT DOESN'T HARM FISH. 
CALIFORNIA SNOW PACK SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED FROM LAST YEAR:
CALIFORNIA'S SNOWPACK MEASURING 87 PERCENT OF  AVERAGE IN THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS.   THAT'S A BIG CHANGE FROM LAST APRIL.   YOU MIGHT REMEMBER WHEN WE SHOWED YOU  CALIFORNIA'S GOVERNOR STANDING ON BARE GROUND  IN APRIL 2015.  THE SNOWPACK PROVIDES 30 PERCENT OF CALIFORNIA'S WATER SUPPLY.  
WATER WOES NOT OVER YET:
BUT WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS C-E-O STEPS DOWN:
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS ANNOUNCING CURRENT C-E-O JIM PALMER IS STEPPING DOWN.  THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE STARTED WITH THE ORGANIZATION IN 2013.  HIS LAST DAY WILL BE MAY 31ST AS HE AIMS TO SPEND MORE QUALITY TIME WITH FAMILY.  NATIONAL WEATHER:
  THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH HIS LONG-RANGE   FORECAST. THAT INCLUDES THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK THIS  WEEK. MIKE, ARE YOU STILL THINKING WE'LL TURN  WARMER THAN NORMAL IF EL NINO FADES.   THANKS TYNE IN A NUTSHELL, YES.
GLOBAL COMPETITION PUSHES WHEAT ACRES DOWN IN U.S.:
ALL  WHEAT ACRES IN THE U.S. ARE FORECAST TO FALL BY 9 PERCENT IN 2016--NOW BELOW 50 MILLION ACRES. THAT'S THE LOWEST IN NEARLY 50 YEARS. AND IF YOU SEE THIS CHART, ACREAGE HAS PLUMMETED SINCE THE 70S.  LOCKED IN A FIERCE GLOBAL COMPETITION, THE U.S. WHEAT INDUSTRY IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP PRICES UP AND FARMERS INTERESTED.  OPTIMISM IN THE STRUGGLING WHEAT MARKET:
BUT AS CLINTON GRIFFITHS REPORTS,  THE INDUSTRY ISN'T GIVING UP.  IT'S BEEN SEVERAL YEARS...  SINCE IDAHO FARMER WAYNE HURST TURNED OVER THIS HAY FIELD.  PRICES FOR HAY MAY BE DOWN, BUT EVEN SO THIS FORMER WHEAT GROWER PRESIDENT SAYS REPLACING THOSE ACRES WITH WHEAT ISN'T A GIVEN.  HE'S NOT ALONE. MANY WHEAT ANALYSTS...SAY PUTTING SEED IN THE GROUND IN 2016...TAKES A SHARP PENCIL.

LACK OF PROFITS FORCES FARMERS TO GROW DIFFERENT CROPS:
WE'RE NOT GOING TO PRODUCE WHEAT IF WE  DON'T MAKE A PROFIT DOING IT. 4:16  PROFITS, PART OF THE REASON SOME WHEAT GROWERS ARE SHIFTING ACRES INTO OTHER CROPS.  PRICE DROP IN WHEAT COULD MAKE FOR OPPORTUNITY:
ALTHOUGH, NOT EVERYONE IS CONVINCED ACRES WON'T BE THERE...  LOOKING AT USDA NUMBERS AND SOME OF THE PRIVATE NUMBERS,  I THINK YOU COULD SEE WHEAT ACRES GO UP. AS THESE PRICES GO  DOWN FOR COMMODITIES ACROSS THE BOARD, THAT COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WHEAT. AGAIN, I COULD BE AN OPTIMIST. 
WHEAT GROWERS EEK WAYS TO IMPROVE THE INDUSTRY:
THAT OPTIMISM ALSO DRIVING THE COUNTRY'S WHEAT GROWERS TO DO BETTER....  IT CONTINUES BUILD A NEW BUSINESS PLAN FOR THE WHEAT INDUSTRY...FOCUSING ON YIELDS, RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT.  IT'S ALSO ROLLING OUT A NATIONAL WHEAT YIELD CONTEST IN 2016.

WHEAT SEEKS A PLACE AMONGST THE TRENDY ORGANIC MARKETS:
SOME OF THOSE PROFITABILITY PROBLEMS MAY BE SOLVED BY CONSUMERS...AND THE GROWING DEMAND FOR ORGANIC PRODUCTS. ARDENT MILLS CEO DAN DYE SAYS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE PERCENT OF U.S. WHEAT ACRES ARE ORGANIC.
COTTON ACRES COULD SEE A BOOST:
IT LOOKS LIKE USDA COULD HAVE A BIG BOOST IN COTTON ACREAGE THIS YEAR, UP 11 PERCENT   ACCORDING TO THE LATEST USDA NUMBERS. BUT  COTTON FARMERS ARE FACING AN UPHILL BATTLE   WHEN IT COMES TO THE FARM BILL. JOHN PHIPPS HIT ON IT BEFORE, BUT NOW HE'S BACK WITH PART 2 OF THE DISCUSSION. JOHN. 
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, I RESPONDED TO A QUESTION REGARDING OUR COVERAGE OF THE   COTTON SECTOR. I LEFT UNTIL LATER A SIGNIFICANT  PART OF THE EMAIL:  "HOW COME YOUR SHOW NEVER MENTIONS THE COTTON INDUSTRY? WE WERE KICKED OUT OF THE NEW  FARM PROGRAM AND LEFT WITHOUT A VIABLE SAFETY NET. I ENJOY YOUR SHOW BUT DON'T UNDERSTAND  WHY THE COTTON INDUSTRY IS IGNORED."  WHN I READ THIS, I WAS PUZZLED.
TEASE:
THANKS, JOHN. QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CAN BE  SENT TO JOHN VIA EMAIL OR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.UP NEXT, WE HEAD OUT WEST FOR A VISIT WITH BAXTER BLACK.

BAXTER BLACK:
WELCOME BACK. THIS WEEK WE'RE CHECKING IN WITH BAXTER BLACK TO HEAR ABOUT A LEGACY OF A RODEO MAN. BAXTER.   HERES A HUNDRED YEARS OF HISTORY AND A HUNDRED  BEFORE THAT.  ALL GATHERED INTO THINKING GOING ON BENEATH HIS HAT.  AND BACK BEHIND HIS EYEBALLS AND PUMPING THROUGH HIS VEINS IS THE GHOST OF EVERY COWBOY THAT EVER HELD THE REINS.    TEASE:
THANKS, BAXTER.
AND YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER ONLINE AT  BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK, AL PELL HAS THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH   SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES:
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES.  THIS WEEK'S COLLECTOR HAS A SPECIAL EAR FOR CERTAIN TRACTORS.  IT'S THE SOUND OF A JOHN DEERE.  THIS 1952 AR IS ONE THAT HAS SPECIAL MEANING FOR A YOUNG MAN MY GRANDPA GOT THIS TRACTOR IN CHEYENNE, WYOMING.  THEY WERE CUTTIN WHEAT UP THERE AND HE'D SEEN IT A COUPLE OF TIMES AND ONE YEAR HE DECIDED HE WAS GONNA BUY IT AND HE TOOK THE MONEY AND HE WENT AND BOUGHT IT AND BROUGHT IT HOME IN THE BACK OF AN OLD GRAIN TRUCK AND IT   WAS IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE, THE PAINT WASN'T THAT GREAT BUT IT WAS ORIGINAL PAINT IT HAD THE GRILL UP FRONT THAT HAD SOME BIG DENTS IN IT.  THE OVERALL IT WAS IN GREAT MECHANICAL CONDITION.
CHURCH SALUTES:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE OLD  LAMINE CHURCH OF CHRIST, LOCATED IN LAMINE MISSOURI. THE CHURCH GOT IT'S START MORE THAN 170 YEARS AGO AS A CHRISTIAN CHURCH. AND IN 1935, TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE CHURCH OF CHRIST. IN 1945 THEIR CHURCH BUILDING WAS DESTROYED BY A FIRE, BUT THANKS TO THE HELP OF CHURCH MEMBERS,  THE NEW STRUCTURE STILL STANDS TODAY.
 CROP COMMENTS:
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME POHOTOS.  CHARLES IN VIRGINIA TELLS US COWS ARE STRIP GRAZING NEW GROWTH OF RYEGRASS NEAR HIS HOME IN PROSPECT. THAT'S JUST WEST OF FARMVILLE. HE SAYS WARM TEMPS AND GOOD MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED GRAZING TO OCCUR TWO WEEKS EALIER   THAN NORMAL. 
CLOSING:
  FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK  YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE. 

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