USFR Weekly Recap - April 30-May 1, 2016

April 30, 2015 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
APRIL 30-MAY 1, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  SOYBEANS HOLD ABOVE 10 DOLLARS, BRIGHTENING ATTITUDES AND OUTLOOKS IN FARM COUNTRY.  MOVE OVER WHEAT, THERE'S A NEW KING  IN NORTH DAKOTA CREATING A FERTILIZER FRENZY.   <IN 2013, THERE WERE ACTUALLY ACRES THAT NEVER GOT SEEDED BECASUE WE COULDN'T GET FERTILZIER FOR IT>  THANKS TO A NEW PLANT, OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS YOU WHY AREA FARMERS NO LONGER HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FINDING ENOUGH FERTILIZER WHEN THEY NEED IT MOST.   FOR THOSE OF YOU ANXIOUS FOR MIKE'S 90 DAY FORECAST, YOU'RE IN LUCK...  BY JULY MOST OF HTE COUNTRY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND OVER IN JOHN'S WORLD...  <DESPITE THE WILD MARKETS, WE'RE GOIGM TO DIG OUR WAY OUT OF THIS INCH BY INCH> 

RALLY:
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, TROUBLE IN  SOUTH AMERICA FUELING MORE PRICE RALLIES THIS WEEK. THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL TRIMMING SOYBEAN CARRYOVER THIS YEAR.THAT'S OVER INCREASED CONCERNS ABOUT THE SOUTH AMERICAN CROP. RAINS HURTING HARVEST PROGRESS, WITH SOYBEANS  READY TO BE CUT, JUST SITTING IN THE FIELD. THE GRAINS COUNCIL NOW PEGS THE 2015 TO 2016 CARRYOVER AT 38 MILLION METRIC TONS, WHICH IS A 6 MILLION METRIC TON DROP FROM LAST MONTH. 
ARGENTINA GETS SOAKED, BRAZIL BATTLE DROUGHT:
HERE ARE SOME PICTURES WE RECEIVED FROM A  FARMER IN ARGENTINA. IT SHOWS YOU THE DAMAGE FROM THE GROUND LEVEL,  WITH SOGGY FIELDS AND EQUIPMENT BURRIED IN  FIELDS.   THESE WERE TAKEN ABOUT FIVE HOURS NORTH AND WEST OF BUENOS AIRES.  MEANWHILE, BRAZIL'S DROUGHT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR CORN EXPORTS INTO THE SOUTH AMERICAN  COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN TWO DECADES.  JUST LAST WEEK, THE COUNTRY DROPPED THE 8 TO 10 PERCENT CORN IMPORT TAX FOR 6 MONTHS.  THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SHIPMENTS INTO THE COUNTRY.  THIS COULD BE A NEW MARKET FOR U-S CORN. BRAZIL IS THE WORLD'S THIRD LARGEST CORN  PRODUCER.  CORN PLANTING IS ALMOST DOUBLE THE AVERAGE  PACE. 

CROP PROGRESS IN THE U-S:
USDA SAYS AS OF MONDAY, 30 PERCENT OF THE CROP  IS PLANTED, COMPARED TO THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE OF 16 PERCENT. MISSOURI FARMERS ARE 50 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE, IOWA UP 31 POINTS, SOUTH DAKOTA BEATING THE AVERAGE BY 22 POINTS, AND ILLINOIS 17 POINT AHEAD.
SOYBEAN PROGRESS:
USDA ALSO REPORTING SOYBEAN PROGRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. IT SHOWS FARMERS ARE 3 PERCENT PLANTED, WHICH IS JUST A POINT ABOVE AVERAGE.  LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI ARE BOTH BEHIND FROM ALL THE WET WEATHER.   U-S DOLLAR DROPS:
THE U-S DOLLAR SINKING TO AN 11-MONTH LOW THIS WEEK AS PROSPECTS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES WANE. THAT DROP BOOSTED COMMODITIES, HEADING TO THE BEST MONTHLY RETURN SINCE 2010. ALSO THIS WEEK, THE YEN MAKING THE BIGGEST WEEKLY JUMP SINCE 2008.
 “ANTICOMPETITIVE CONDUCT” TO BE INVESTIGATED IN PRICE COLLAPSE OF 2015:
 THE SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE IS MOVING FOWARD WITH THE INVESTIGATION INTO THE 2015 PRICE COLLAPSE. IN RESPONSE TO R-CALF USA'S JANUARY REQUEST, THE  SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE LAST WEEK REQUESTED THE COMPTROLLER GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES TO USE THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE TO INITIATE THE INVESTIGATION.  MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE ASKING THE GAO TO INVESTIGATE THE CAUSE OF THE SUDDEN 15.1 PERCENT  DROP IN FED CATTLE PRICES THAT OCCURRED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF 2015. SPECIFICALLY REQUESTIING THE GAO TO CONDUCT  QUOTE "A REVIEW OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE MARKET  AND OF ANY POSSIBLE ANTICOMPETITIVE CONDUCT." FEEDLOTS ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN NUMBERS,  SIGNALING HERD EXPANSION MAY BE STARTING TO TAPER.

APRIL CATTLE ON FEED REPORT:
USDA RELEASING ITS FIRST APRIL CATTLE ON FEED REPORT SHOWING MARCH PLACEMENTS UP 5 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. THE NUMBER OF CATTLE ON FEED IS UP 1 PERCENT,  WITH 10 POINT 9 MILLION HEAD. SOUTH DAKOTA SHOWING A MAJOR BUMP, WITH FEEDLOT CAPACITY JUMPING UP 13 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. 
NATIONAL WEATHER:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...AFTER A WEEK OFF, METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, SOME HEAVY STORMS MOVING THROUGH AREAS. WILL WE SEE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK? THANKS, TYNE. SHORT ANSWER IS YES IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER   PATTERN AGAIN THIS COMING WEEK BUT EVERYTHING WILL BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
 ALRIGHT, HERE'S THE DROUGHT MONITOR, THAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW. YOU CAN SEE POCKETS IN THE EAST, POCKETS IN TEH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WROST AREAS CONTINUET O BE CALIFORNIA. BUT LET'S GO BACK A MONTHAND YOU CN ASEE INT EH DROUGHT MINOTIR WE'RE STARTING TO GET PRETTY DRY OVER PARTS OF NORHT AKOTA AND ALSO PARTS OF KANSAWS AND PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA BUT WE'VE SETTLED THAT DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND KIND OF  
SHRUNK THOSE AREAS THAT ARE GETTING REALLY DRY.  THANKS, MIKE. 
TEASE:
WE'LL TRY TO WRAP OUR HEAD AROUND THESE WILD MARKETS RIGHT NOW.  TOMMY GRISAFI AND JOE VACLAVIK JOIN ME NEXT. 
ROUNDTABLE 1:  WE'RE BACK NOW ON U.S. FARM REPORT WITH TOMMY GRISAFI OF ADVANCED TRADING AND JOE VACLAVIK OF STANDARD GRAIN. KIND OF AN EXCITING WEEK. WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP ABOVE THAT $10 MARK IN SOYBEANS.
SOYBEAN MARKET:
TOMMY, JUST HELP US WRAP OUR HEADS AROUND WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET THIS WEEK. THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. I WAS TELLING JOE OFF AIR, YOU KNOW, I'VE ONLY BEEN A BROKER FOR A LITTLE BIT. I'VE NEVER SEEN IT BUSY AS A BROKER, AND WE GREW UP IN THE INDUSTRY TOGETHER AND JOE'S SEEN IT BUSY BEFORE. THE DROUGHT WAS CRAZY, BUT THIS WAS ABOUT AS NUTS AS IT GETS, AND PEOPLE WERE EXCITED. I ACTUALLY SAW SOME PEOPLE CALL IN, MAYBE THEY WEREN'T CLIENTS, BUT THEY SAID THEY HAD FORWARD SALES IN BEANS AT $9.
RALLY CAUSES PANIC AND EXCITEMENT:
WHAT DO I DO NOW?
AND SO YOU COULD SEE THAT PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY GIVEN UP CONTROL OF THE BUSHELS AT A LOWER PRICE, AND THEY'RE PANICKED. I ACTUALLY SAW MORE    IT FELT LIKE ANGER OR DISGUST THAT WE WERE RALLYING, AND THAT'S NOT WHAT THE FARMER SHOULD BE THINKING. SO IT'S A HECK OF AN OPPORTUNITY.WE WENT FROM MAYBE $50 LOSS PER ACRE TO A BREAK EVEN TO AN INSTANT PROFIT, AND THEN THAT SHOULD BE THE FUN PART, AND SO IT'S CORN AND BEANS I'M MORE WORRIED ABOUT IT.
WHAT COULDA RALLY MEAN FOR FUTURE?:
JOE, LOOKING AT THE FACT WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP ABOVE THE $10 MARK THIS WEEK IN SOYBEANS, DOES THAT SIGNAL ANYTHING TO YOU?  I DON'T KNOW IF IT SIGNALS ANYTHING, BUT THE BEST THING ABOUT THIS RALLY IN THE BEAN MARKET IS THAT WE DID IT WITHOUT A U.S. PRODUCTION PROBLEM.FARMERS STILL HAVE ALL THE POTENTIAL IN THE WORLD TO GROW A BIG BEAN CROP AND PUT A RECORD YIELD OUT AND CAPITALIZE ON THESE PRICES, SO THAT'S THE BEST THING ABOUT IT.
SOUTH AMERICA:
>> JOE, YOU MENTIONED THE FACT THAT WE DO HAVE THESE PROBLEMS IN SOUTH AMERICA. AND, TOMMY, HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT CAN FUEL THESE MARKETS AND KEEP US AT LEVELS THAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY?   ACCORDING TO THE SPREADS AT THE BOARD OF TRADE A WHILE, BECAUSE YOU SEE SOMETHING LIKE THIS NOV, NOV, NOV ‘16, NOV ‘17 TRADING 50-CENTS OVER. SO THE MARKET WANTS YOUR SOYBEANS.IT WANTS THEM AT HARVEST.
CORN PRICES:
>> CAN SOYBEANS CARRY CORN PRICES HIGHER?  THEY HAVEN'T AS OF YET. WE SAW WHAT I WOULD PROBABLY CALL A FALSE BREAKOUT IN THE CORN MARKET WHERE WE TRADED DEC CORN UP TO $4.09 AND NOW WE'RE BACK BELOW FOUR BUCKS.
LOOKING AT RISK:
WE THOUGHT WE WOULDN'T GET A RALLY UNTIL THIS SUMMER LIKE JOE MENTIONED, SO WHAT TYPE OF RISK DO WE HAVE MOVING FORWARD?  I FEEL WE STILL HAVE A GREAT RISK. AS YOU WAKE UP AS A PRODUCER YOU HAVE TO ASK YOURSELF WHAT YOUR RISK IS. IT'S TO THE DOWNSIDE, RIGHT? BUT FLIP IT AROUND. WHAT IF YOU'RE AN ETHANOL COMPANY? IF I WAS AN ETHANOL COMPANY I'D BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORN BUSHELS BOUGHT.TO JOE'S POINT WE HAVE PLENTY OF CORN.
A LOT OF TIMES WE TALK ON THIS SHOW ABOUT THE PRODUCERS RISK, BUT IT'S ALWAYS A TWO SIDED STORY, SO YOU COULD LOOK AT PEOPLE IN THE CATTLE INDUSTRY.THE CATTLE TRADED DOWN THE LAST FEW WEEKS AS GRAIN STARTED TO TRADE UP.
TEASE:
>> WELL, ALSO HELPING PRICES WE HAVE A WEAKER DOLLAR. WE'RE GOING TO GET INTO THAT, HELPING OUR EXPORTS AS WELL.WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT, SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE.
ROUNDTABLE 2:
 WELCOME BACK. WELL, RIGHT BEFORE BREAK I MENTIONED THAT THE U.S. DOLLAR ACTUALLY WE’RE AT AN 11-MONTH LOW. WHY ARE WE SEEING THIS DOLLAR WEAKEN, TOMMY, AND HAVE WE FOUND A BOTTOM HERE?
WHY HAS THE U-S DOLLAR LOST STRENGTH?:
 WELL, IT’S DEFINITELY HARD TO PREDICT WHAT’S GOING ON, ESPECIALLY IN THE WORLD OF OUTSIDE MARKETS AND CURRENCIES AND THE FED. SO WHAT I DO KNOW IS SEVERAL COUNTRIES HAVE A ZERO OR LESS THAN ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY. EVERY FEW MONTHS WE HAVE A FED MEETING AND WE’VE DEFINITELY CHANGED OUR WAYS INTO OH, WE’RE GOING TO RAISE RATES, RAISE RATES, TO YOU KNOW WHAT,  RATES ARE JUST FINE. SO I REALLY THINK THERE’S A MUCH BIGGER PICTURE GOING ON. I MEAN WE THINK AS COMMODITY TRADERS AND BROKERS THAT IT’S REALLY NEAT WHAT’S GOING ON, BUT LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE AMAZON YESTERDAY. THEY HAD EARNINGS AND JEFF BEZOS MADE $6 BILLION IN TEN SECONDS. THAT’S JUST ONE PERSON, RIGHT? SOYBEANS RALLY $1.50 AND THE AMERICAN FARMER MADE $6 BILLION, BUT THE STOCK MARKET’S THE REAL DEAL, AND THAT’S WHAT I THINK THE GOVERNMENTS WANT TO KEEP INFLATED, IS THE STOCK MARKET. AND I THINK THEY TOSS COMMODITIES TO THE SIDE. NOW, ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE LOWER DOLLAR IS WE’VE SEEN ALL THE COMMODITIES EXCEPT FOR CATTLE AND A FEW OTHERS GO UP, AND IT’S HELPED. WE’VE COME TO THE IDEA THAT MAYBE A BUSHEL OF GRAIN’S NOT AS CHEAP ANYMORE.
HOW COULD WEAK DOLLAR HELP EXPORTS GOING FORWARD:
 TOMMY, IF WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS WEAKER DOLLAR AND BETTER EXPORT NEWS FOR OUR MAJOR COMMODITIES HOW WILL THIS HELP US MOVING FORWARD THIS YEAR?
>> IT’S GOING TO AT LEAST CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FARMER TO BREAK EVEN. SO WHEN YOU WENT TO ALL THE WINTER MEETINGS, YOU KNOW, MY THEME WAS TRY TO LOSE LESS THAN YOUR NEIGHBOR. I THINK ACTUALLY FOR SOME OF THE GROWERS I WORK WITH THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO PROFIT, AND THAT’S REALLY FUN. WHETHER THEY CAPTURE THAT PROFIT OR NOT I’M NOT SURE. I’M STILL VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CORN. I’VE TRAVELED UP NORTH A LOT AND THOSE STATES THAT HAD THE BETTER YIELD LIKE JOE HAD SPOKE ABOUT AND THEY HAVE THE LOWER BASIS, AND SO THERE’S A REASON THEY’RE 60,70 UNDER BASIS IN CORN. IT’S NOT BECAUSE WE’RE RUNNING OUT. SO I STILL THINK EVEN THOUGH IT FEELS LIKE CORN’S WENT UP, YOUR RISK, IT’S STILL TO THE DOWNSIDE AND SOMEHOW YOU NEED TO PROTECT THAT AND WRAP SOME OF THAT UP.
DEMAND FROM CHINA:
>> (LAUGHING) YOU GUYS ALSO MENTIONED THERE’S BEEN KIND OF A SHIFT IN PRICES. WE ARE SEEING MUCH STRONGER HOG PRICES AT THIS POINT. IS THAT JUST BECAUSE MAINLY WE’RE SEEING BETTER DEMAND FROM AREAS LIKE CHINA?
>> YEAH, A LITTLE BIT. WE SAW SOME BETTER EXPORTS THIS PAST WEEK. I PERSONALLY THINK THAT WHEN THE HOG MARKET WAS MAKING THOSE LOWS IN THE 40S, 50S, IT WAS TOO CHEAP. YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL STUFF AND WHERE WE GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT, 40, 50 IS TOO CHEAP. THE 70-80 RANGE SEEMS TO BE HISTORICALLY MORE FAIR AND I KIND OF THINK THAT’S WHERE WE STAY FOR A WHILE.
TEASE:
ALL RIGHT, WELL, WE WANT TO GET YOUR CLOSING THOUGHTS. WHAT SHOULD YOUR GAME PLAN BE MOVING FORWARD? WE WILL ASK TO BOTH JOE AND TOMMY WHEN WE COME BACK.
MARKETS NOW:
>> WELCOME BACK, TIME TO GET CLOSING THOUGHTS. TOMMY, LET’S START WITH YOU. >> YEAH, IT’S BEEN AN INTERESTING COUPLE OF MONTHS. A LOT OF TRAVELING OVER THE WINTER, MET A LOT OF GREAT PEOPLE.  AND SO THESE PRICES, IT’S FUN TO WATCH THEM GO UP, BUT THERE’S STILL DOWNSIDE RISK AND IT NEEDS TO BE MANAGES, AND YOU GET TO START AT A MUCH BETTER PRICE THAN WHERE WE WERE A FEW MONTHS AGO.
>> ALL RIGHT, THANKS, TOMMY. JOE?
JOE:
 I’VE BEEN DOING THIS 11 OR 12 YEARS NOW. UP UNTIL THIS LAST YEAR I’VE NEVER SEEN AS MUCH WORRY ABOUT PRICES AS WE’VE SEEN THIS YEAR  AND IT’S OF COURSE BECAUSE OF MARGINS. PRICES HISTORICALLY ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH BUT THE MARGINS ARE ALL THAT REALLY MATTERS. SO THE SOYBEAN MARKET, WHAT IT’S JUST GIVING YOU IS A GIFT, I THINK, AND THE CORN MARKET HOPEFULLY GIVES US SOMETHING TO WORK WITH IN THE FUTURE. BUT REMEMBER THOSE CONCERNS FROM A FEW MONTHS BACK AND WHERE WE’RE AT RIGHT NOW.
TEASE:
>> YES, DEFINITELY. THANK YOU GUYS BOTH SO MUCH. STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US WHEN WE COME BACK.
JOHN’S WORLD:
AS WE JUST TALKED ABOUT IN THE ROUNDTABLES, THE COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE BEEN SURPRISING LATELY. JOHN PHIPPS GIVES HIS TWO CENTS FROM THE FARM. JUST LIKE KIDS WHO SEEM TO GET SICK ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR RIGHT BEFORE A VACATION, THE GRAIN  MARKETS DECIDED TO GET CRAZY RIGHT WHEN MOST  OF US WERE UP TO OUR EARS FIELDWORK. WHAT MADE  THE WHOLE EPISODE EVEN MORE UNSETTLING WAS  THE UNIFORM ASTONISHMENT FROM JUST ABOUT EVERY MARKET WATCHER OR ADVISOR. AFTER ALL, THE  USDA HAS JUST ANNOUNCED WHACKING STOCKPILES AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES, AND IT WAS HARD TO  MAKE ANY CASE FOR A DOLLAR PLUS RALLY IN PLENTIFUL SOYBEANS. 
TEASE:
  THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, WE'RE HEADING TO  NORTH DAKOTA WHERE NOT ONLY HAS THE ACREAGE MIX CHANGED, BUT THE DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER JUST  KEEPS RAMPING UP. IT'S A GAME CHANGER AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT IN OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. 
OPENING HEADLINES FOR SECOND HALF OF THE SHOW:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. AN ACREAGE SHIFT IN NORTH DAKOTA IS FORCING A MAJOR INPUT SUPPLIER TO STEP UP THEIR STORAGE GAME. THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. BAXTER BLACK HAS A SPECIAL TRIBUTE TO LIFE ON THE FARM AND RANCH.   WHO'S REALLY BENEFITTING FROM FARM SUBSIDIES?  THAT'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. AND IF YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT A HOT, DRY SUMMER, MIKE GIVES US OUR FRIST GLIMPSE IN HIS 90 DAY   FORECAST.  

OPERATING LOANS:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, MORE FARMERS ARE RELYING ON OPERATING LOANS TO GET THROUGH 2016.  THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE LATEST REPORT OUT OF THE KANSAS CITY FEDERAL RESERVE.  THE FED SAYS AS FARM INCOME REAMINS SUPPRESSED  DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR, THE VOLUME OF LOANS REMAINS RECORD HIGH. IN THE FIRST QUARTER, LOANS LARGER THAN 100   THOUSAND DOLLARS ACCOUNTED FOR 77 PERCENT OF NON-REAL ESTATE FARM LAONS. THAT'S UP 72 PERCENT FROM 2011.  THE K-C FED ALSO REPORING DELINQUECY RATES ON FARM LOANS TICKING UP. I SPOKE TO A WEST TEXAS FARMER WHO SITS ON A BANK BOARD ABOUT THE SITUATION.   YOUNG PRODUCERS STRUGGLE WITH DEBT IN TOUGH FARM ECONOMY:
HAGOOD SAYS THE REAL STRESS IS ON YOUNG  PRODUCERS WHO ARE RELY ON LOANS AND JUST   GETTING FURTHER INTO DEBT EACH YEAR. USDA IS SEEING THE SAME THING, SAYING THE OVERALL FARM ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE. THE SHARE OF FARM BUSINESSES THAT ARE HIGHLY   LEVERAGED CONTINUES TO RISE, RESEARCHERS SAY IT HAS BEEN RISING SINCE 2012. THIS YEAR IT'S FORECAST TO INCREASE YET AGAIN.  IN 2016, USDA SAYS THE SHARE OF VERY HIGHLY  LEVERAGED CROP FARMS COULD HIT ITS HIGHEST  LEVEL SINCE 2002.   RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX:
FARMERS ARE SEEING A LITTLE RELIEF ON THE CASH RENT SIDE OF THE BALANCE SHEET. CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY REPORTING CASH RENTS DOWN 7 PERCENT IN ITS LATEST RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX.  RURAL BAKERS SAYING CASH RENTS NOW AVERAGE 211 DOLLARS PER ACRE THIS YEAR.   ONE AGRICULTURAL COMPANY POSTED A FORECAST THIS WEEK SIGNALING THE WORST MAY BE COMING TO AN END FOR THIS ERA OF AG. 
DUPONT COMPANY FORECAST:
IN ITS LATEST EARNINGS REPORT, DUPONT COMPANY  FORECASTING A PROFIT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 3   THREE YEARS. DUPONT C-E-O SAYS HE DOESN'T NECESSARILY SEE THE FARM ECONOMY IMPROVING, INSTEAD, FINDING A BOTTOM.
NEW SOLUTION TO B-T RESISTANCE:
 FARMERS BATTLE ROOTWORM AND OTHER RESISTANT PESTS. BUT THANKS TO A NEW BREAKTHROUGH FROM  HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND MONSANTO, THERE COULD   BE A NEW SOLUTION TO B-T RESISTANCE.  MONSANTO CALLS IS PHASE-ASSITED CONTINUOUS  EVOLUTION, OR PACE,  AND IT WILL GENERATE NEW  INSECT CONTROL TRAITS FOR CROPS.  THE WAY IT WORKS IS BYPASSING WERE THE RESISTANCE OCCURS IN AN INSECT USING THE PACE   TECHNOLOGY, ALMOST RESETTING THE B-T  TECHNOLOGY IN A LAB.   DANNON GOES GREEN:
DANNON SAYS ITS COMMITTED TO BRING CUSTOMERS  PRODUCTION FROM MORE NATURAL INGREDIENTS. ON TUESDAY, DANNON PLEDGED TO ITS FARMERS,  RETAIL CUSTOMERS AND CONSUMERS TO RAMP UP THE STANDARS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULUTRE PRACTICES IN ITS MILK PRODUCTION. INCLUDED IN THAT PROMISE IS TO SOURCE ALL MILK FROM COWS THAT EAT NON-GMO FEED OVER THE NEXT 3 YEARS.  DANNON PLEDGES GMO FREE:
THE COMPANY ALSO SAYING ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS SOURCED FOR PRODUCTS WILL BE NON-GMO, AS WELL.
CHIPOTLE SHOWS PROFIT LOSS IN FIRST QUARTER:
MEANWHILE, A COMPANY RELYING ON SUSTAINABILITY AS ITS MAIN MARKETING PLOY IS STRUGGLING TO RECOVER AFTER THE RECENT FOOD SAFETY SCARE  SENT SALES PLUNGING.  CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL SHOWS FIRST QUARTER  PROFITS FALLING 23 PERCENT, MAKE IT THE FIRST LOSS AS A PUBLIC COMPANY.  THE E COLI OUTBREAK SICKED DOZENS OF CUSTOMERS LAST FALL.  THE COMPANY SAYS ITS LOOKING AT A RECOVERY IN 2017 AT THE EARLIEST.
TRIBUTE TO CONRAD BURNS:
20 AGRICULTURE LOAST ANOTHER FRIEND THIS WEEK. FORMER MONTANA SENATOR CONRAD BURNS DIED THIS WEEK. BURNS SERVED THREE TERMS AS A U-S SENATOR REPRESENTING MONTANA, HELPIGN SET THE COURSE FOR PUBLIC LANDS MANAGEMENT ACROSS THE WEST. HE  SPENT PART OF HIS CAREER AS A FARM BORADCASTER, STARTING THE NORTHERN AG NETWORK. BURNS WAS 81.  

WEATHER:
  THAT'S A CHECK OF YOUR NEWS. WE'LL CHECK BACK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN...MIKE, SOME OF OUR VIEWERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT A HOT AND DRY SUMMER... SO, WE'RE ANXIOUS TO SEE YOUR 90 DAY.   HANKS,T YNE, YES INDEED WE'LL CHECK THE 90 HERE IN ABOUT  15 20 SECONDS, BUT FIRST HET JET STREAM FOR THIS WEEK. YOU CAN SEE  ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH THE TROPH EDELVEOPING BACK IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF HTE WEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT HTERE'S SOME QUESITON HOW FAR SOUTH THAT CLD AIR COMES. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWAEST THAT'S INTERESTING. THE WARMTH BUILDS UP TOT HE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH THIS WEKE. YOU CAN SEE ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ALRIGHT, MAY TEMPS. ABVOE NORMAL THE EAST CAOST, NORTHERN PLAINS GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL FOR TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AND SOME SURROUNDING AREAS. JUNE TEMPS, WE'LL SHRINK THAT BELOW NORMAL AREA INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OTHER WISE  ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF HTE EAST, NORHTERN PLAINS AND MOST OF THE WEST.
FARM JOURNAL REPORT:
THANKS, MIKE. USDA THINKS FARMERS IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PLANT  FEWER ACRES OF CORN, WHEAT, SOYBEANS, DRY EDIBLE BEANS AND HAY.  BUT THAT ACREAGE MIX IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN   WHAT SOME FARMERS PLANTED JUST A DECADE AGO AND WHEAT IS NO LONGER KING.  IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE TELL YOU WHY A  MAJOR ACREAGE SHIFT IS PROMPTING A MAJOR INPUT  SUPPLIER TO STEP UP THEIR GAME IN ORDER TO KEEP UP WITH FARMER DEMAND.  
TEASE:
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. <DO FARM PAYMENTS CAUSE BULLYING?? 
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
FARM SUBSIDIES CAN BE A CONTROVERSIAL TOPIC FOR SOME. AND ONE VIEWER HAS AN INTERESTING   QUESTION FOR JOHN ABOUT WHO REALLY BENEFITS  FROM THE PROGRAM. THAT'S THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.   THIS WEEK WE HAVE A COMMENT ABOUT THE EFFECT  OF FARM SUBSIDIES FROM K. TEMPLE.    "I HAVE A PROBLEM WITH A 13.8 BILLION DOLLAR SUBSIDY PROGRAM. FARMERS HAVE PAID $10-$20K AN ACRE AND $300 -$500 CASH RENT KNOWING IT WON'T PENCIL OUT. WE'VE GIVEN THESE INDIVIDUALS A WAY TO NOT BE WRONG. IT'S ALSO GIVEN THEM A WAY TO  'BULLY' THEIR NEIGHBORS."    THANK YOU FOR YOUR FEEDBACK AND PLEASE SEND YOUR ADDRESS. LONG-TIME VIEWERS WILL KNOW I AM NOT A FAN OF FARM SUBSIDIES, BUT NOT FOR THE  EXACTLY SAME REASONS AS THIS VIEWER.
TEASE:
 THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OF COMMENTS, YOU CAN  EMAIL US AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. UP NEXT, WE'LL HEAD OUT WEST TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK.   BAXTER BLACK: EVERY RANCHER HAS HIS OR HER OWN OPERATION, BUT WE'RE ALL IN IT TOGETHER. WE HEAD OUT WEST AND HEAR FROM BAXTER BLACK.

BAXTER BLACK:  

PEOPLE WHO WORK WITH LIVESTOCK HAVE A COMMON BOND. I FEEL LIKE YOU CAN TAKE A CAROLINA FARMER OR CALIFORNIA RANCHER PUT THEM IN WITH A ZOO LOO TRIBE WONDER A LOT OF REINDEER HERDER  THT WOULDN&#39;T TAKE LONG FOR THEM TO BE USEFUL WE KNOW WHERE TO STAND HOW.
TEASE:
THANKS, BAXTER. YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER ONLINE AT BAXTER  BLACK DOT COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US. 
TRACTOR TALES:  WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES.  THIS WEEK WE'VE GOT AN UNAUTHORIZED JOHN DEERE TRACTOR FROM NORTHWEST WASHINGTON STATE.  ORIGINALLY BUILT  FROM 1941 UNTIL 1946, THIS MODEL LA CAME IN CLASSIC JOHN DEERE GREEN OR INDUSTRIAL YELLOW. THIS STARTED OUT TO BE A 1944 JOHN DEERE LA AND WHEN I GOT IT THE WIFE FOUND IT IN A LITTLE NICKLE  WANT AD PAPER. 
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE:
THANKS, CARL. TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE BERNADOTTE LUTHERAN CHURCH   LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE, MINNESOTA. THE CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING THEIR 150TH   ANNIVERSARY THIS WEEKEND. OUR THANKS TO CHURCH MEMBER RUTH KLOSSNER FOR SHARING   THEIR STORY.     AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. 
TEASE:
STAY WITH US – CROPWATCH IS NEXT. 
CROP WATCH:

MORE PLANTING PROGRESS TO TALK ABOUT THIS WEEK. MARK IS BUSY PLANTING IN COLORADO AND SAYS   CONDITIONS COULDN'T BE BETTER. BUT HE WASNT TO KNOW IF WEATHER IS GOING TO DELAY HIM SOON... AND I'LL LET THE WEATHER EXPERT ANSWER THAT (BY THE  WAY, MIKE, THAT'S YOU)... 
CLOSING:
  FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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