USFR Weekly Recap - August 12-13, 2017

August 12, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 12-13, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THE  NEXT 60 MINUTES... USDA SENDING NEGATIVE SHOCK WAVES THROUGH THE  MARKET, WITH YIELDS AND PRODUCTION HITTING  LEVELS HIGHER THAN THE TRADE EXPECTED <THE HEADLINERS OBVIOUSLY WHERE THE CORN AND  SOYBEANS ESTIMATES.> DAYS AWAY FROM LUNGING INTO LUCRATIVE TRADE  TAKS WITH CANADA AND MEXICO. CLINTON GRIFFITHS  REPORTING FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF HTE BORDER.  WASHINGTON ALSO WATCHING THE NEXT FARM BILL... <"I THINK PEOPLE ARE BEING REALISTIC AND REALIZE WE DON'T HAVE A  LOT OF MONEY TO DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE > OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT IS STRAIGHT FROM THE  FARM BILL FIELD HEARING AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... "THE DICAMBA PROBLEM, IT'S REAL."  <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

WASDE
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK, USDA SHOCKING THE TRADE ON THURSDAY,  REVEALING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED YIELDS IN THE  LATEST CROP PRODUCTION REPORT AND A RECORD  SOYBEAN CROP. THE AFTERMATH WAS RED PLASTERED  ACROSS THE CME THURSDAY.  TRADE EXPECTING A CORN YIELD IN THE MID 160'S, BUT  THAT'S NOT WHAT USDA THINKS AT THIS POINT,  POSTING A 169 PINT 5 BUSHEL PER ACRE YIELD. IF USDA  IS RIGHT, THAT'S THE THIRD HIGHEST YIELD EVER. CORN PRODUCTION PROJECTED DOWN 7 PERCENT  FROM LAST YEAR, BUT STILL ABOVE 14 BILLION  BUSHELS.  USDA DID DROP YIELD IN BOTH IOWA AND ILLINOIS..  IOWA YIELD PROJECTION ARE 15 BUSHELS PER ACRE  BELOW LAST YEAR ... ILLINOIS DOWN 9. AND DESPITE  DECLINING CROP CONDITIONS, INDIANA IS UNCHANGED.  BUT THE SOUTH LOOKS TO BE THE GARDEN SPOT WITH  9 STATES SEEING DOUBLE DIGIT GAINS.. THE MOST  IMPRESSIVE ALABAMA UP 45 BUSHEL PER ACRE OVER  LAST YEAR. LOUISIANA UP 27.  USDA ALSO SURPRISING HTE MARKET BY BOOSTING  THE SOYBEAN YIELD FROM ITS LAST REPORT, NOW AT  49.4 BUSHELS PER ACRE. PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO  HIT 4 POINT 38 BILLION BUSHELS, 2 PERCENT ABOVE  LAST YEAR.  THAT NEWS SETTING A BEARISH TONE IN THE  COMMODITY MARKETS. HERE'S PROFARMER'S BRIAN  GRETE.  <THE HEADLINESERS OBVIOUSLY WHERE THE CORN  AND SOYBEANS ESTIMATES THERE THE FIRST SUVEY  BASED ESTIMATES AND WHEN WE LOOK AT THOSE BOTH  OF THEM COMING IN HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS  ANTICIPATED AND HTE HISTORY OVER THE PAST 20  EYARS THAT TELLS US ON CORN IT'S ABOUT A 50/50  PROPOSITION, USDA MAY GO UP IT MAY COME DOWN,  BUT ON SOYEBANS THERE'S A 2/3 CHANCE THAT THEY  WILL GO UP FROM WHERE THEY WERE HERE WIHT  THEIR AUGUST ESTIMATE EVEN THOUGH IT CAME IN  HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED AND BAOVE TRENDLINE  LEVELS, WHICH WAS A MAJOR SURPRISE>

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER...MIKE, ANY  WIDESPREAD RAINS IN STORE FOR MID AUGUST?    THANKS TYNE.  NO I REALLY DON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN COMING OUR WAY  OVER THIS NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL KIND OF COME AND GO  IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WE'RE STILL WATCHING THOSE  DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES IN  EASTERN MONTANA. NOW IF WE GO BACK A MONTH YOU CAN SEE THAT  WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY EXCEPTIONAL AREAS BUT WE WERE GETTING DRIER  AND DRIER. AND THEN AS WE MOVED THROUGH THE LAST FOUR WEEKS  YOU CAN SEE HOW THOSE AREAS HAVE EXPANDED BUT THEY'VE  STARTED TO CUT DOWN A LITTLE BIT HERE JUST IN THE LAST WEEK. I DON'T  AGAIN SEE ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS THAT KIND OF HELP THAT SITUATION  OUT. THIS IS A LONG TERM DROUGHT TAKES A WHILE TO GET RID OF IT.  HERE'S THE WAY THINGS SHAPE UP AS WE GO DAY BY DAY THIS WEEK  ON MONDAY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO  THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THAT SYSTEM THERE HIT AND  MISS VARIETY WILL CONTINUE EVERY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND  SEE A COUPLE OF COOL FRONTS OFF TO THE NORTH. THESE ARE NOT GOING  TO HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH COOL AIR AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST  WEEK AND A HALF. BUT JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY  THEN WE'LL SEE ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN  PLAINS DRYING THINGS OUT BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIT  AND MISS IN THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THAT  FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AND ANOTHER COOL FRONT UP TO THE  NORTH. NOW ON FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH WE SHOW THIS COOL FRONT GOING  DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS IS NOT REAL COOL AIR BEHIND IT.  YOU'LL SEE THE JET STREAM COMING UP IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. BUT  YOU CAN SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP AND DOWN  THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN KIND OF ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT  BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AND IT WILL BE HOT ACROSS  MUCH OF THE COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  COUNTRY WILL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST. IN OUR NEXT HALF  HOUR. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE WERE ON THE  ROAD THIS WEEK BEFORE THE LATEST USDA REPORT.  SO WHEN WE RETURN, DAN  HUEBER, MIKE NORTH AND  ANGIE SETZER TALK ABOTU ALL THE OTHER FACTORS  MOVING THE MARKETS IN THE DAYS AND WEEKS AHEAD. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND WHILE WE'RE ON  THE SECOND STOP OF THE FARM JOURNAL YOU'LL TO READ AGRO LIQUIDS  HERE IN ST. JOHN'S MICHIGAN A BIG THANK YOU FOR THEM HOSTING US  THIS WEEK. WE ACTUALLY RECORDED THIS SEGMENT ON WEDNESDAY.  SO UNFORTUNATELY WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO TAKE A DEEP DIVE  INTO THIS LATEST USDA REPORT. WE'LL TALK ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE.  MOVING THE MARKETS AND REALLY RIGHT NOW YOU KNOW LOOKING AT  CROP CONDITIONS AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE USDA SHAVE SOME  POINTS OFF OF CROP CONDITIONS. YOU KNOW THAT'S THAT'S TYPICAL OF THIS  TIME OF YEAR TO SEE THEM KIND OF BACKTRACKED THAT. BUT COMPARED  TO AVERAGE OR CROP CONDITIONS WORKS THIS YEAR THAT ON AVERAGE I  WOULD SAY YES COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW YEARS  DEFINITELY.  IT'S BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE'VE BEEN DOWN THIS LOW. ONE OF THE  YEAR'S MOST RECENT MEMORY WOULD BE 2011 THAT YEAR WE CAME IN  ABOUT 95 PERCENT OF TREND LINE YIELD COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING TO  THIS YEAR THAT PUT US AROUND 160 161 OR SO IF ALL WERE SAID AND  DONE. QUESTION IS HAS TECHNOLOGY CHANGED. THINGS OF THAT  NATURE. BIGGEST THING THAT I THINK WE'RE SEEING THIS YEAR IS  VARIABILITY. SO IT'S IT'S IT'S ALMOST LIKE WE HAD TO 2015 IN THE  EASTERN BELT ALL OVER AGAIN WHERE WE HAD SOME REDUCTION IN  YIELDS SOME LOSS ACRES DUE TO WET CONDITIONS IN THE SPRING. YOU  KNOW THINGS OF THAT NATURE WE HAVEN'T SEEN DRY CONDITIONS LIKE  WE'RE SEEING IN THE WESTERN BELT IN QUITE SOME TIME. SO THE  QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU MEET UP BOTH OF THOSE  THOSE SETUPS THE TWO WAY IN THE EAST AND TO DRY IN THE WEST. AND  SO REALLY WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT VARIABILITY YOU KNOW YOU HAVE POCKETS WHERE WE HAVE HORRIBLE CROPS WE HAVE POCKETS WHERE  WE MAY HAVE AVERAGE YOU HAVE SOME LIMITED ABOVE AVERAGE I  WOULD SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. JUST FROM WHAT I'VE BEEN SEEING  OVERALL.  YEAH AS YOU I MEAN WE KNOW IT'S NOT A RECORD CROP OUT THERE BUT  STILL IN SOME OF THESE AREAS WHERE THE CROP DOESN'T LOOK THE  GREATEST IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD MIKE. AND SO YOU KNOW WHEN  WE LOOK AT AT THE END OF THE DAY WE HAVE SOME MORE SOYBEAN  ACRES YOU KNOW AND EVEN CORN ACRES IMPRESSED US THIS YEAR.  WHAT TYPE OF YIELD DO WE NEED TO SEE TO REALLY START TO TRIM THIS  CROP BACK.  THE NUMBER THAT EVERYBODY'S WATCHING IN THE REPORT ON  THURSDAY IS 166. BUT IF WE WERE TO START TAKING THE YIELD BACK  BELOW 165 THAT WOULD GET EVERYBODY TALKING THEY WOULD START TO  PUSH THE SUBCU BILLION BUSHEL CARRY OUT THAT WOULD START TO GET US  TALKING ABOUT WHERE WE'RE AT WITH DEMAND FOR THE COMING YEAR. IT  WOULD START TO PUT A LITTLE FIRE ON THE THE BUYERS OF CORN AND  MAYBE CHANGE THE BASIC SITUATION A LITTLE BIT. ULTIMATELY IT'S GOING  TO TAKE QUITE A BIT OF A TRIM THOUGH TO GET EVERYBODY TO MOVE  FORWARD BECAUSE WE NOT ONLY HAVE A BIG CROP HERE BUT WE ALSO  HAVE BIG INVENTORIES AROUND THE WORLD.  AND WE DIDN'T EVEN GET INTO THAT YET. WE WILL. HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT  WE WOULD SEE YIELD UNDER ONE SIXTY FIVE AT THIS POINT.  WHAT DO YOU THINK IN THE AUGUST REPORT. IT'S PRETTY UNLIKELY. THE  USDA TYPICALLY IS NOT GOING TOTAKE A BIG MOVE FORWARD IN THAT  REPORT. THEY MAY GET THERE BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE AUGUST REPORT. SO  AS WE GO INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO  DETERIORATE WHICH REMEMBER IS NORMAL WE'D LOSE ON AVERAGE  ABOUT ONE TO TWO POINTS A WEEK ON AVERAGE THROUGH INTO  SEPTEMBER. IF THAT CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE THAT CONVERSATION WILL  CONTINUE TO GAIN MOMENTUM.  MIKE MENTIONED TWO BILLION BUSHELS. AND YOU SAY THAT IS A KEY  NUMBER TO WATCH THIS YEAR.  I BELIEVE IT'S A PSYCHOLOGICAL NUMBER. YOU KNOW IT ISN'T THERE'S  NOTHING MAGIC ABOUT 2 BILLION BUSHELS. AND YOU REALLY REALLY NEED  TO LOOK AT THE STOCK TO USE RATIO ANYWAY BUT $2 IN EACH ROUND.  ONCE YOU'RE ABOVE BILLION BY WE GET A COMFORTABLE SUPPLY WE  DON'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT CHASING AFTER PRODUCT. ONCE YOU START  MOVING BELOW $2 AND THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE ARE YOU'RE  GOING TO MOVE FURTHER FOR THAT $2 BILLION MARK ARE GOING TO BE  DOWN AT 1.5 I MEAN JOE YOU RAISED JUST A LOT OF CONCERNS FROM  THE DEMAND SIDE AT THAT POINT. IS THE COURT GOING TO BE AVAILABLE  WHEN NEEDED.  YOU KNOW NO MATTER WHAT IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT WHAT CROP YOU'RE  LOOKING AT NEW CROP. I MEAN WHEN YOU LOOK AT BASIS TODAY WE  ARE LOOKING AT REALLY WIDE BASIS ACROSS THIS COUNTRY AND ANGIE AT  THIS POINT AND AGAIN YOU KNOW WHAT'S FOR GUYS FOR PRODUCERS WHO  ARE LOOKING AT SUCH A WIDE BASIS.  WELL I GUESS THEY HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT THEIR LOCAL MARKET SETUP  APPEARS. IF THEY ARE IN AN AREA WHERE THEY FEEL THAT THEY ARE  TROUBLED WITH LOWER CROP PRODUCTION AND FEEL THAT YIELDS WILL BE  DOWN IN ORDING. AND LOOK AT IT REALISTICALLY DON'T SAY THAT YOUR  NEIGHBORS CROP IS THE WORST CROP YOU'VE SEEN AND YOU'RE GOING  TO YIELD PRETTY AVERAGE. I HEAR THAT A LOT. THAT'S WHAT EVERYONE'S  CRAP IS TERRIBLE BUT YOURS IS. SO THIS IS A FUNCTION OF LOCAL SUPPLY  AND DEMAND. THERE ARE GOING TO BE SOME SOME SIGNIFICANT BASE  SHIFTS ESPECIALLY IN THE DAKOTAS THOSE AREAS WHERE DROUGHT  CONDITION HAS REALLY LIMITED PRODUCTION. THERE IS SOME TALK THAT  WE'VE SEEN SOME BASES FIRMING IN PARTS OF IOWA MICHIGAN BASIN SHOULD REMAIN STRONG WE'VE SEEN INCREASE IN DEMAND. WE'RE  CONTINUING TO SEE SOME BUILDING OF FEED PRODUCTION AROUND THE  AREA AND THINGS LIKE THAT. SO YOU KNOW FROM AN OVERALL  STANDPOINT IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA THAT LOOKS REALLY GOOD AND HAS  HAD SEVERAL DECENT CROPS OR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DECENT CROPS  AND YOU'RE SEEING PEOPLE PILE OLD CROP CORN DO NOT ANTICIPATE  YOUR BASIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO IMPROVE AS YOU WORK YOUR WAY  INTO HARVEST IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA WHERE PRODUCTION IS IS LIMITED  AND YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE BASIS FROM UP A LITTLE BIT WHICH IT  TENDS TO AUGUST-SEPTEMBER ANYWAY. BUT IF YOU'RE IN THAT AREA  WHERE PRODUCTION IS HAS  BEEN STRUGGLING THEN YOU CAN ANTICIPATE  YOUR BASIS TO STRENGTHEN ALRIGHT,  RIGHT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK RIGHT AFTER THAT. WE HAVE  SOUTH AMERICA YOU KNOW THEY HAVE A REALLY BIG CROP ON THEIR  HANDS SO HOW COULD THAT IMPACT US. WE NEED TO KEEP THAT IN  MIND. WE'LL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON US FARMER. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT AGAIN WE ARE HERE FROM THE  FARM JOURNAL AND YIELD TO OR AT AGRO LIQUID IN ST. JOHN'S MICHIGAN.  WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PRICE FOR THIS UPCOMING YEAR YOU KNOW WE  LOOK AT THE CROPS SCENARIO WHEN WE LOOK AT THE STOCKS AND WE  KNOW THAT'S KIND OF A WET BLANKET. BUT LET'S LOOK JUST BEYOND US  LOOK AT SOUTH AMERICA. WE KNOW THEY HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CORN  CROP ON THEIR HANDS AS WELL. YOU KNOW HOW COULD THAT IMPACT US  MOVING FORWARD.  YOU THE AND BRAZIL THIS YEAR AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THEY'RE SECOND CORN  CROP THIS CROP IS GOING TO COME IN EVEN BIGGER THAN WHAT WAS  ANTICIPATED. SO THERE'S NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT IT IS GOING TO BE  CREATE QUITE A BIT OF COMPETITION. I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT MOST OF THE  NUMBERS FOR THE EXPORT PROJECTIONS THE NEXT YEAR WE'VE ALREADY  STARTED TO RATCHET THEM DOWN JUST A BIT. YOU KNOW ONE THING THAT  ALWAYS PLAYS I SHOULDN'T SAY ALWAYS BUT IT HAS PLAYED TO OUR  ADVANTAGE AND PROBABLY WILL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS THE  POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN SOUTH AMERICA. AND I THINK NOBODY REALLY  EVER WANTS TO TOTALLY COMMIT THEMSELVES BE IT CORN OR SOYBEANS  TO SAYING I'M GOING I'M GOING TO DEPEND ON EITHER OF THOSE  NATIONS TO REALLY BE MY MAIN SUPPLIER. AND I THINK THAT IS ONE  THING IS KIND OF THE ACE IN THE HOLE FOR US THAT ALLOWS THERE BEANS  SALES TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE THE WAY THEY HAVE BEEN. AND IN FOR  EVEN AS MUCH TALK AS WE HEARD ABOUT MEXICO AND ARGENTINA  TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER SOME TRADE AGREEMENTS TOO. IS A  BARGAINING CHIP WITH AFTER ITS VERY LIMITED QUANTITIES THEY CAN  REALLY SWITCH OUT OF THERE. SO IT'S A YES COMPETITION IS GOING TO BE  HIGHER. BUT YOU KNOW THERE ARE STILL A NUMBER OF THINGS THAT WORK  TO OUR ADVANTAGE.  SPEAKING OF POLITICAL CRISIS AND LOOKING AT THIS NORTH KOREAN  MISSILE CRISIS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE ON OUR HANDS. MIKE WHEN  YOU LOOK AT THAT WHAT IMPACT IS THAT GOING TO HAVE ON THE MACRO  ENVIRONMENT I MEAN SPECIFICALLY THE U.S. DOLLAR. WOULD THAT  STRENGTHEN OR WOULD THAT WEAKEN THE U.S. DOLLAR.  WELL GENERALLY THEY ALWAYS SAY WARS IS A GOOD WAY TO MAKE THE  DOLLAR STRONG. IT CERTAINLY BRINGS A LITTLE VIGOR BACK TO THE ECONOMY  AND AND THAT WHO KNOWS WHAT THE FULL INTENT OF THOSE COMMENTS  WERE. BUT ULTIMATELY THAT WOULD HELP STRENGTHEN OUR DOLLAR WHICH  OF LATE FALLING SUPPORT AT A TECHNICAL BASELINE OF 92 ON THE INDEX  AND THAT COULD WITH THOSE COMMENTS FUEL A LITTLE ADDITIONAL  BUYING IN OUR MARKETPLACE AND BRING THAT DOLLAR MARKET BACK UP  WHICH THEN HINDERS OUR EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS. YES. YOU DON'T  THINK WE'LL GO BELOW 92. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE TIME BEING IF WE  DO OPEN THAT DOOR THOUGH WE START TO GO BACK TO THAT RANGE THAT  WE TRADED PRIOR TO 2014. ULTIMATELY WE'D HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO  LOOK BACK AT SOMETHING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 85 ON THE INDEX  WHICH WOULD BE INCREDIBLY SUPPORTIVE AS WE CAN MOVE BACK  THERE AND LOOKING ACROSS THE WORLD YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD SOME  ISSUES WITH WHEAT PRODUCTION IN OTHER PARTS OF THE OF THE WORLD.  WE KNOW WE DO NOT HAVE THE BEST CROP ON OUR HANDS HERE  ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT DROUGHT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BUT IS THAT ENOUGH TO MOVE THE MARKETS. I MEAN AT THIS POINT  HOW LONG UNTIL WE COULD SEE THAT STRENGTH IN THE CRISIS.  WELL THE PROBLEM THAT YOU HAVE IS THAT YOUR SPRING WHEAT PRICES  IS ALREADY ABOVE $7. MINNEAPOLIS AND THAT'S WHERE YOUR DROUGHT  IS CENTERED. THE STRUGGLE THAT WE HAVE IS THERE THERE'S MORE  THAN ENOUGH SUPPLIES AVAILABLE OF HARD RED AND SOFT RED WHEAT  YOUR KANSAS CITY AND YOUR CHICAGO MARKETS OR AT LEAST THAT'S  THE WAY THE TRADE IS TAKING IT RIGHT NOW. YOU TEND TO SEE THE  STRENGTH IN MINNEAPOLIS SPILL OVER INTO THE OTHER MARKETS. AND I  THINK THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS IN THE AREA IN GERMANY. A LOT OF  THEIR CROP HAS BEEN HAS SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT QUALITY ISSUES 40  PERCENT OF THEIR CROPS ESTIMATED TO BE GOING TO FEED THIS YEAR. .  AND WHEN IT COMES TO WHEAT THE ONE THING THAT I ALWAYS SAY IS  THE GIANT ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM AS IS EVERYONE TALKS ABOUT THESE  HUGE GLOBAL STOCKS. AND THIS IS THE STRUGGLE THAT WE HAVE IS  GETTING RID OF THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE HUGE GLOBAL STOCKS. 48  PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S WHEAT IS SITTING IN THE HANDS OF THE  CHINESE. AND THEY WERE ONE OF OUR LARGEST EXPORT CUSTOMERS THIS  PAST SPRING. . SO I THINK WHEAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN  SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPORTED IF NOT MOVE HIGHER.  BUT IT'S REALLY ONE OF THOSE THINGS THAT WILL BE A STRUGGLE BECAUSE  WE STILL HAVE THIS IDEA THAT WE HAVE A LOT AVAILABLE.  YES SO THE GLOBAL ISSUES THAT ANGIE WAS TALKING ABOUT DO YOU  THINK THAT'S ENOUGH TO KEEP PRICES. YOU  KNOW I THINK IT'S ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN WHEAT PRICES. SO IT'S  WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STOCKS I MEAN AND THEY ARE VERY  COMFORTABLE WITH ME WE WERE NOBODY'S IN A PANIC SITUATION BUT  WE'RE REDUCING ENDING STOCKS ANY TIME YOU BEGIN TO REDUCE  ENDING STOCKS. YOU TEND TO BE PRICE SUPPORTIVE. YES YOU NEED A  PANIC TO REALLY GET HIM EXCITED TO MOVE HIM INTO HIGHER GROUND.  BUT I MEAN I THINK THE SITUATION REALLY APPLIES VERY DIRECTLY TO  CORN AS WELL BECAUSE YOU CAN NEVER REALLY GET A CORN MARKET  ACTIVE ON THE UPSIDE UNLESS YOU HAVE WHEAT REDUCING STOCKS  AND MOVING TO HIGHER PRICES AS THE TWO CROPS ARE JUST TWO  INTERCHANGEABLE IN THE FEED SECTOR TO MOVE CORN HIGHER WHEN WE  BURN SOME SUPPLY.  SO MICRO QUICK WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME. I KNOW I ALWAYS DO THIS  TO YOU BUT DAIRY PRICES WHEN WE IT WE'RE CHEAP AND WE'RE BUT OUR  PRICES HAVE BEEN. WHAT'S YOUR HOPE THAT WE COULD GET MILK  PRICES PAST THAT $17 MARK.  WELL WE HAVE WE HAVE TWO THINGS TO HELP US IN THAT REGARD.  DOMESTICALLY WE'RE MOVING TO THAT TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE SCHOOL  IS MOVING BACK INTO SESSION. MILK'S GOING TO BE TAKEN OUT OF  SUPPLY. WE'RE GETTING RAMPED UP FOR THE BIG HOLIDAY SEASON AND  BUYERS ARE BUILDING THEIR OWN PERSONAL INVENTORIES IN ADVANCE OF  THAT. TOGETHER WITH THE FACT THAT THE DOLLAR IS WEAKENED AND WE  HAVE BIG HOPES FOR EXPORTS IN A WORLD WHERE PRICES ARE AT A  PREMIUM TO OUR OWN. SO THERE ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES TO TAKE  PRICES HIGHER BUT WE'RE STILL PLAY BY BIG INVENTORIES OF PRODUCT ON  AND ON ALMOST EVERY CLASS. AND SO THAT WILL WEIGH AGAINST THE  MARKETS AND WE'VE WATCHED THAT TUG OF WAR TAKE PLACE EVEN AS  RECENT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE  NATURE OF THE MARKET GOING INTO FALL. WE'RE JUST VERY SUPPORTIVE  AND HOPEFUL OF THE IDEA THAT DEMAND IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN ALL  THE MORE AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER OCTOBER.  THAT. LET'S TAKE A BREAK. ON U.S. FARMER REPORT

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS ANGIE WE'LL START WITH YOU.    MY MAIN THING IS DON'T GO INTO THIS FALL USING HOPE AS A MARKETING  STRATEGY. SIT DOWN MAKE A PLAN ADJUST TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE  MARKET STRUCTURE KNOW WHAT YOU'RE UP FOR. DON'T FOCUS TOO MUCH  ON BASIS REMEMBER IF YOU DON'T HAVE ANYTHING SOLD YOUR CASH  TRADER, THE CASH PRICE IS WHAT MATTERS. ALL RIGHT. THANKS ANGIE  MIKE.  WELL THE OLD ADAGE SELL RALLIES STILL HOLDS TRUE. THE BOTTOM LINE IN OUR MARKET IS WE CAN'T LOOK AWAY FROM OPPORTUNITIES AT OUR  MARKET. IF YOU SEE A RISING PRICE BE READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT  THAT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT MARKET YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. ALL RIGHT.  THANKS MIKE DAN. GREAT ADVICE FROM BOTH. I GUESS THE ONLY  THING I WOULD ADD IS THAT YOU KNOW THIS IS NOT A TIME TO GET  DISTRESSED. I MEAN I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF CHALLENGES THAT ARE OUT  THERE BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE OVERALL COMMODITY SECTOR WE'VE  COME THROUGH WHAT I BELIEVE IS A MAJOR LOW I THINK THE NEXT FEW  YEARS ARE GOING TO BE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD SO IT'S IT'S TIME  TO MAKE THOSE PLANS AND EXECUTED WHEN THE TIME WHEN THE  PRICES PRESENT IT TO YOU .  ALL RIGHT THANKS DAN WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS  JOINS US NEXT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
WE'VE REPORTED ON TEH SHOW ABOUT DICAMBA  INJURY COMPLAINTS THIS YEAR. UNIVERSITY OF  MISSOURI WEED SPECIALIST KEVIN BRADLEY  ESTIMATES 2 POINT 5 MILLION ACRES OF SOYBEANS  WERE INJURED FROM DICAMBA IN 2017. COMPANIES  LIKE BASF AND MONSANTO SAY LEADERS ARE TAKING  STEPS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE FOR NEXT YEAR.   JOHN HAS HIS OWN TAKE ON DICAMBA THIS WEEK IN  JOHN'S WORLD.  I SPOKE EARLIER IN THE SUMMER ABOUT THE PROBLEMS ARISING FROM  WIDESPREAD PLANTING OF DICAMBA-RESISTANT BEANS AND THE OFF- TARGET DICAMBA DAMAGING OTHER CROPS. SINCE THEN THE ISSUES  HAVE NOT GOTTEN BETTER. AS TYNE HAS REPORTED HERE ON US FARM  REPORT, WEED EXPERTS ALL ACROSS THE CORN BELT HAVE BEEN  DELUGED WITH QUESTIONS AND COMPLAINTS ABOUT DICAMBA DAMAGE. INSURANCE COMPANIES HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THEY WANT NO PART OF  THE LIABILITY INVOLVED, CAUSING COMMERCIAL AND CUSTOM  APPLICATORS TO HESITATE TO SPRAY DICAMBA IN MANY PLACES. STATE  GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT AGENCIES ARE WRESTLING WITH POSSIBLE ACTIONS. I WOULD SUSPECT LITIGATION ATTORNEYS ARE CAREFULLY PREPARING THE GROUND WORK FOR POSSIBLE INDIVIDUAL AND EVEN CLASS  ACTION LAWSUITS WITH SEVERAL ZEROES IN THE DAMAGE CLAIM  NUMBERS. AND ALL OF US ARE ANTICIPATING THE YIELD MAPS  DOCUMENTING UNHAPPY RESULTS WHEN THE COMBINES START ROLLING. THE ARC OF THIS STORY IS BECOMING CLEAR I THINK.  FIRST, WEED PRESSURE IS INTENSIFYING, AND DICAMBA RESISTANT CROPS  ARE CLEARLY ONE POWERFUL TOOL TO BOLSTER OUR ARSENAL TO COMBAT  THIS THREAT. OUR EXPERIENCE IS IT WORKS VERY WELL. SECOND, EFFORTS TO KEEP DICAMBA IN ITS PLACE HAVE PRODUCED  MIXED AND EVEN COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE RESULTS. FOR EXAMPLE, MANY  TROUBLESOME SPECIES INVADE FROM THE OUTSIDE IN, SUCH AS THIS  WATERHEMP . THE REQUIRED BUFFER ZONES FOR MANY DICAMBA  APPLICATIONS FRUSTRATE ATTACKING THIS PROBLEM. ADJUVANTS AND  MECHANICAL MEANS OF CONTROLLING DRIFT AND VOLATILIZATION SEEM TO  DECREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DICAMBA ON SOME WEEDS.  DICAMBA'S VOLATILITY IS ACTUALLY A PLUS WHEN TACKLING MANY WEEDS  AS IT HELPS DISPERSE TO ALL THE GROWING POINTS. FINALLY, IT BORDERS ON IMPOSSIBLE TO CLEAN A SPRAYER THOROUGHLY  ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME DAMAGE ON SUBSEQUENT APPLICATIONS.   FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES, YOU CLEAN OUT DICAMBA BY SPRAYING  FALL BURNDOWN. WEED SCIENTISTS HAVE USED CAUTIOUS WORDING, BUT MORE VOICES  ARE POINTING OUT WHAT HAS BEEN OBVIOUS TO FARMERS AND  APPLICATORS FOR WEEKS: THIS IS NOT IMAGINARY NOR IS THERE SOME  OTHER MYSTERIOUS CAUSE. WE HAVE A DICAMBA PROBLEM. ON  CUSTOMER SUPPORT TODAY, I'LL OUTLINE SOME STEPS I THINK WE COULD  TAKE.

TEASE
STILL TO COME, NAFTA ISN'T THE BUZZ JUST IN THE U-S.  IT'S ALSO CREATING CONCERN SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  WE'LL TAKE YOU THERE AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT, WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND. DAYS AWAY FROM NAFTA TRADE TALKS, WE HAVE A  PREVIEW OF THE POSSIBLE RIPPLE EFFECT FROM BOTH  SIDES OF HTE BRODER.  IN OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT, FARM BILL HEARINGS  HAVE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE MEMBERS ASKING  QUESTIOSN FROM THE FIELD  AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, JOHN PHIPPS THINKS HE  HAS SOLUTIONS FOR HTE ONGOIGN DICAMBA DEBATE.

NAFTA RENEGOTIATION PREP
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR U-S  TRADE, AS OFFICIALS ARE SCHEDULED TO OFFICIALLY  LAUNCH INTO NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.  AND STAKES ARE HIGH FOR A DEAL MORE THAN 20  YEARS OLD.  NEGOTIATIONS KICK OFF WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16TH,  BUT THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION OUTLINING THEIR  PRIORTIES IN JUNE. THE ADMINTRATION SAYS THE  UNITED STATES' TOP PRIORITIES ARE TO REDUCE THE U- S TRADE DEFICIT WITH MEXICO AND  RESTRICT THE  AMOUTN OF IMPORTED MATERIAL IN GOODS,  BUT A LOT IS RIDING ON THE LINE FOR U-S  AGRICULTURE, AS MEXICO IS THE THIRD LARGEST  EXPORT MARKET FOR OVERALL AG GOODS. CLINTON GRIFFITHS HAS BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN  MEXICO THIS WEEK WHERE MEXICAN BUYERS SAY ANY  FALLOUT WILL HAVE A RIPPLE EFFECT.  <THIS 20,000 HEAD FEETLOT SITS JUST 90 MILES SOUTH OF LOREDO,  TEXAS. ADN THANKS TO NAFTA, THEIR BUYING A LOT OFAMERICAN  PRODUCTS HERE. JUST TAKE THEIR FEED FOR EXAMPLE, THEIRY'RE USING  CORN, DDGS, COTTON SEED, THEY'RE ALSO USING TECHNOLOGY AND  EQUPMENT OT RUN THE FEED MILL AND AMERICAN GENETICS IN THEIR  CATTLE HERD. THE ONLY THING THAT I'M AFRAID OF IS FOR SOME TARIFFS TO  BE ADDED, UGH, AND THAT IS GOING OT HAVE AN AFECT ON PRDUCTION  COTSTS. THE END CONSUMER IS GOING OT BE THE ONE THAT'S GOING TO  BE DAMGED OR IS GOING TO FEEL IT HTE MOST, BUT I DON'T THINK THTA'S  GOING TO HAPPEN> A MEXICAN GRAIN BUYER TELLING U-S FARM REPORT  THAT IF NAFTA IS PHASED OUT, HE'LL BE FORCED TO  FIND GRAIN FROM SOUTH AMERICA. BUT SO FAR, NAFTA  IS WHAT'S KEPT HIM COMPETITIVE IN HIS BUSINESS. 

DISNEY-BPI SETTLEMENT
DINSEY COMPANY'S QUARTERLY REPORT REVEALING  THE SETTLEMENT AMOUTN IN THE BEEF PRODUCTS  INCORPORATED CASE.  WALT DISNEY IS HTE PARENT COMPANY OF ABC. THE  FINANCIAL REPORT SHOWS BPI WAS PAID 177 MILLION  DOLLARS BY DISNEY TO SETTLE THE DEFAMATION  LAWSUIT OVER THE REPORTING OF PINK SLIME. BPI ATTONREY DAN WEBB SAYS THAT 177 MILLION ISN'T  THE TOTAL AMOUNT. IT APPEARS THAT DINSEY IS FUNDING 177 MILLION OF  THE SETTLMENT AND IT'S INSURAERS ARE PAYING THE  REST.  THE LAWSUIT STARTED IN 2012 AGAINST ABC NETWORK  AND WAS SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT IN JUNE OF THIS  YEAR. 

COTTON YIELDS
FARMERS IN  NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA LOOKING AT  IMPRESSIVE COTTON YIELDS. .  USDA SAYS COTTON YIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT 892  POUNDS PER ACRE THIS YEAR, UP 25 POUNDS FROM  THE RECORD FARMERS SAW LAST YEAR.  PRODUCTION IS FORECAST AT 20 PERCENT ABOVE 2016,  AT 20 POINT 5 MILLION BALES.  WITH ALL OF THE REGULATORY APPROVALS NOW IN  PLACE IT APPEARS DOW CHEMICAL AND DUPONT ARE  READY TO CLOSE THEIR MASSIVE MERGER.  THE TWO  COMPANIES PLAN TO COMPLETE THE SALE AFTER THE  STOCK MARKET CLOSES ON AUGUST 31ST. THE COMBINED COMPANY - KNOWN AS DOW-DUPONT -  WILL START SELLING ON THE NEW YORK STOCK  EXCHANGE ON SEPTEMBER FIRST.

CHICAGO FED FARMLAND VALUES
THE CHICAGO FED - WHICH COVERS THE CORE OF THE  CORN BELT SHOWING YEAR OVER YEAR FARMLAND  VALUES CLIMBING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE  YEARS. THE FED SAYS FARMLAND VALUES IN THE SECOND  QUARTER OF 2017 WERE ONE PERCENT HIGHER THAN A  YEAR AGO DESPITE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA EXPERIENCED  YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECREASES. . ON A BRIGHT NOTE, THE FED SAYS CREDIT CONDITIONS  IN THE CHICAGO DISTRICT DETERIORATED AT A SLOWER  RATE. AND THE LATEST U-S DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING  IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ALL THE WAY TO  TEXAS.  IT'S NOT AS GOOD NEWS FOR IOWA, KANSAS AND THE  NORTHWEST. LOOK AT THE MAJOR DROUGHT PLAGUED STATES,  EXTREME DROUGHT IMPROVING 8 POINTS IN SOUTH  DAKOTA. BUT IT REMAINS PARKED IN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE  MORE THAN 44 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS SEEING  EXTREME CONDITIONS.  IOWA IS GROWING DRYER. SEVERE DROUGHT CLIMBING  5 POITNS IN IOWA. 12 PERCENT OF TEH STATE IS SEEING  SEVERE DROUGHT, OR THE DARK TAN SHADE. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE WEATHER. MIKE,  SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LATEST DROUGHT  MONITOR, BUT NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA NOT  SEEING THE RELIEF FARMERS AND RANCHERS KEEP  WAITING FOR.  NO THAT'S RIGHT TYNE. THEY'VE SEEN SOME RAIN IN THE NORTHERN  PLAINS EASTERN MONTANA OVER THE PAST SEVEN TO 10 DAYS BUT NOT  ENOUGH TO REALLY START TO GET RID OF THAT DROUGHT SO FAR. HERE'S THE  JET STREAM. SEE THIS RIDGE IT'S BEEN OUT WEST FOR QUITE SOME  TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S FINALLY GOING TO START MOVING EASTWARD WHICH  MEANS THE COOL AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING  TO START TO WARM UP AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS OVER THE  WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT GETS PUSHED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH  BUT YOU'LL NOTICE THAT KIND OF GOES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK  SO THIS MEANS VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER  48. AND THEN LOOK WHAT HAPPENS OUR MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWING A  LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH OUT WEST A LITTLE BIT OF A RIDGE OUT EAST. SO WE  MAY FLIP FLOP THINGS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST.  LET'S CHECK THINGS OUT THEN 30 DAY TEMPERATURES I AM GOING TO  GO BELOW NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK INTO  THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST NEAR  NORMAL ELSEWHERE AS FAR AS THE 30 THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION  GOES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHEAST MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  PLAINS BELOW NORMAL UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTHWARD TYNE.  THANKS, MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
FROM NAFTA TO THE FARM BILL,  WASHINGTON HAS A LOT ON ITS PLATE WHEN IT COMES  TO AGRICULTURE.  THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE HOLDING FIELD HEARINGS  ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO GET INPUT FROM FARMERS  ON THE FARM BILL. LAST WEEK, LEADERS TOOK OVER   FARMFEST IN MORGAN MINNESOTA. . MICHELLE ROOK REPORTS ON THE CHALLENGES  LAWMAKERS FACE TO WRITE A BILL THAT IMPROVES ON  THE CURRENT LAW.  MICHELLE STANDUP - IN THIS TIME OF LOW COMMODITY PRICES  THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE HEARD DIRECTLY FROM FARMERS HERE AT  FARMFEST IN MINNESOTA ABOUT HOW THE NEXT FARM BILL CAN HELP. THE COMMITTEE HEARD RESOUNDING TESTIMONY ABOUT THE FARM BILL  PROVIDING AN ADEQUATE SAFETY NET. HOWEVER, CHAIRMAN CONAWAY  SAYS THAT MEANS MORE OF TWEAK THAN AN OVERHAUL. "COTTON HAS TO GET BACK INTO TITLE ONE, WE'LL HAVE TO ADDRESS THE  DAIRY PROGRAM, THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM FOR MILK AND THE  ARC COUNTY PAYMENT SCHEME, THOSE ARE THE BIG THREE." 11 SEC LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS ALSO ASKED FOR A $150 MILLION FMD VACCINE  BANK, WHICH THE COMMITTEE IS LOOKING FOR FUNDING FOR. "SO WE CAN HAVE ACCESS TO THE VACCINES WE NEED IN  CASE AN OUTBREAK WERE TO HAPPEN IN THE UNITED STATES. IF SOME  TYPE OF EVENT LIKE THAT WERE TO HAPPEN IN THE U.S. WE WOULD BE  FACING BASICALLY AN END TO OUR EXPORTS." 11 SEC RANKING MEMBER COLLIN PETERSON WAS SURPRISED WITH TESTIMONY  THAT CROP INSURANCE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE TITLE ONE SAFETY  NET OR INCREASING REFERENCE PRICES. MN, "I THINK PEOPLE ARE BEING REALISTIC AND REALIZE WE DON'T HAVE  A LOT OF MONEY TO DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AND THEY'RE GONNA  PROTECT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING AND THAT'S CROP INSURANCE." 9  SEC "WE WANT TO  MAKE SURE THAT OUR CROP INSURANCE IS NOT AFFECTED. IT WAS IN THE  PRESIDENT'S BUDGET TO DO SOME CUTTING THERE WE DON'T WANT TO  HAVE THAT HAPPEN." 10 SEC THE BIG KEY IS GOING TO BE FINDING THE MONEY FOR THE FARM BILL.  CHAIRMAN CONAWAY SAYS THE COMMITTEE IS FACING A POTENTIAL $10  BILLION CUT BASED ON THE 2018 HOUSE BUDGET. "SO ONCE THAT'S FINALIZED IF IN FACT WE WIND UP HAVING  TO COME UP WITH $10 BILLION THEN WE WILL COME UP WITH IT AS ALL THE  AUTHORIZING COMMITTEES WILL. THE BUDGET COMMITTEE GAVE ME  GREAT FLEXIBILITY IN MAKING THAT HAPPEN IF THAT'S THE CASE." 11 SEC I  DON'T REALLY THINK IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, BUT IF IT DOES WE'LL MAKE IT  HAPPEN."  "OFFICIALLY THE COMMITTEE HAS ASKED THAT THE BUDGET  NOT BE CUT FROM WHAT THE BASELINE IS, PERSONALLY I DON'T THINK  THAT'S ADEQUATE. I THINK WE NEED MORE MONEY." 11 SEC CONAWAY AND PETERSON CONTINUE TO TELL FARMERS THEY'RE  COMMITTED TO GETTING A FARM BILL DONE BY THE END OF THE YEAR  BECAUSE OF THE IMMEDIACY OF LOW PRICES. "I THINK ITS IMPORTANT TO GET IT DONE BECAUSE YOU GET  INTO NEXT YEAR YOU GET INTO POLITICS YOU'VE GOT AN ELECTION. AND  I'M FOR DOING WHATEVER WE HAVE TO DO TO MAKE IT HAPPEN." 9 SEC IN REDWOOD COUNTY, MINNESOTA I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR  AGDAY. ) THANKS, MICHELLE.  COMMITTEE MEMBERS ALSO STRESSED THE  IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING THE NUTRITION PROGRAMS  IN THE FARM BILL OR THEY SAYS IT WILL BE NEARLY  IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE SUPPORT TO PASS IT IN  CONGRESS. UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
JOHN PHIPPS ISN'T FINISHED TALKING ABOUT DICAMBA.  AS THE INDUSTRY SEARCHES FOR THE ANSWER ON  WHAT TO DO NEXT AND HOW TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE,  JOHN HAS HIS OWN THOUGHTS ON A SOLUTION. JOHN.   AS I DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY, OFF TARGET DICAMBA IS A REAL  PROBLEM, AND UNIQUE FOR HERBICIDES BECAUSE OF ITS VOLATILITY. TO  PREVENT SELF-INFLICTED OR EXOGENOUS DAMAGE, MANY FARMERS, LIKE  US, WILL TAKE ONE BIG STEP NEXT YEAR - PLANTING ALL DICAMBA  RESISTANT BEANS. THIS IS A DEFENSIVE STRATEGY, FORCED UPON US WHETHER WE USE THE  DICAMBA-RESISTANT TECHNOLOGY OR NOT. SO THE FIRST THING I THINK  SHOULD HAPPEN IS TO MAKE THE TECHNOLOGY FOR DICAMBA  RESISTANCE BEANS PUBLIC PROPERTY - RESCIND THE PATENTS, SO THAT  ALL SEED PRODUCERS CAN USE IT, AND THE TRAIT CAN BE PROPAGATED  AS WIDELY AND QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS IS CLEARLY A TAKING  FROM THE ORIGINATORS OF THAT TECHNOLOGY, I THINK IT IS UNFAIR AND A  DANGEROUS PRECEDENT TO ALLOW TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES TO PROFIT  FROM SOLVING A PROBLEM THEY CREATE. THEY WOULD STILL HAVE PROFITS  FROM HERBICIDE SALES AND MORE EXTENSIVE SEED CATALOGS.  TOUGHER RESTRICTIONS OR EVEN OUTRIGHT BANS COULD BE EVEN MORE  EXPENSIVE.  IN RETURN, PATENT HOLDERS COULD RECEIVE BLANKET IMMUNITY FROM  LITIGATION OVER DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE PRODUCT. APPLICATORS WOULD  STILL BE LIABLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EASY PATH TO SUCH HERD IMMUNITY FOR  SPECIES OTHER THAN SOYBEANS, LIKE PRODUCE, FRUITS, OR FLOWERS.  AFTER REVIEWING DAMAGE CLAIMS THIS YEAR, I SUGGEST CLEARLY  DEFINED HOLD-HARMLESS SETBACKS BE ESTABLISHED THAT WOULD  INDEMNIFY USERS WHEN APPLICATION IS WELL-DOCUMENTED AS  FOLLOWING ALL GUIDELINES. THESE DISTANCES WOULD BE UNIQUE FOR  EACH JURISDICTION - WITH MORE PROTECTION IN AREAS WITH SENSITIVE  CROPS, AND LESS IN HEAVILY CORN-SOY AREAS. THEY SHOULD BE  REVIEWED ANNUALLY FOR EFFECTIVENESS. FOR INSTANCE, A SETBACK OF A  QUARTER-MILE - WHICH I JUST PICKED AT RANDOM -  MIGHT BE REQUIRED  FOR A RESIDENCE, WITH NO DICAMBA ALLOWED WITHIN THAT RADIUS.  THESE SETBACKS COULD BE LIFTED OR LESSENED IF ALL PARTIES AGREE,  WHICH WOULD ALLOW MARKET FORCES TO HELP SETTLE DISPUTES.  FARMERS COULD NEGOTIATE RELIEF FROM THE SETBACKS - PUTTING A  DOLLAR VALUE TO THIS TOOL -  OR USE ALTERNATE WEED CONTROL, SUCH AS  MANUAL WEEDING WITHIN THE EXCLUSION ZONE. FINALLY, MORE ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON HOW SHORT THE  WINDOW FOR USEFULNESS MIGHT BE FOR THIS TECHNOLOGY. EXPERIENCE  SHOULD TELL US THAT WITHIN A FEW YEARS, DICAMBA RESISTANCE COULD  BE COMMON. FRITTERING AWAY SEASONS IN DISPUTES ABOUT THE  REALITY AND CAUSES INSTEAD OF FINDING WORKABLE SOLUTIONS WILL  HARM USERS, TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES AND INJURED PARTIES ALIKE,  WHILE WEED PRESSURE MOUNTS.  THIS IS JUST ONE IDEA. I AM SURE THERE ARE OTHER PRACTICAL PATHS  FORWARD, BUT CONTINUING THE SAME OL' SAME OL' BICKERING PROMISES  ONLY MOUNTING ADVERSITY, ESCALATING LITIGATION COSTS, AND  DEGRADATION OF PUBLIC TRUST IN OUR INDUSTRY. THANKS, JOHN. I KNOW THIS IS A HOT BUTTON TOPIC  FOR MANY, SO IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT,  EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT  COM. WEHEN WE COM EBACK, WE'LL HEAD OUT WEST TO  CHECK IN WITH BAXTER BLACK. 

BAXTER BLACK
WELCOME BACK, IT'S TIME NOW TO HEAD OUT WEST  AND HEAR FROM BAXTER BLACK.  NOW WHOEVER BUILT THIS CROWD AND PEN IT BUILDS A REAL BEAUT. BUT  IT'S OBVIOUS HE'D NEVER PUT A CRITTER THROUGH THE CHUTE. THEY WERE  FLOODING ALL AROUND IN THIS COWBOY CUL DE SAC. WHEN A BIG OLD RED  NECK MAMA MOUNTED MY OLD PONY FROM THE BACK. MY ROPE TIED  TO THE SADDLE HORN UNCOILED LIKE A SNAKE AND DALLIED AROUND MY  BOOT THAT KICK FREE FOR SAFETY'S SAKE. WHEN A PASSING HORNED  INTRUDER SPEARED MY CAT SLOOP FROM THE AIR. IN RETROSPECT I  BELIEVE MY LUCK WAS ALL DOWNHILL FROM THERE. BEING CAUGHT  BETWEEN A BUCKING HORSE WHOS FINALLY JUMPED THE FENCE AND A  PIG-EYED COW WHO STOOD HER GROUND IN SELF-DEFENSE. I WAS  SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AS THEY DRAGGED ME BACK AND FORTH  WITH MY RIGHT ARM WAVING DIXIE AND MY BOOT POINTING NORTH. I WAS  GETTING FULL OF SPLINTERS ON MY CLOTHES BEGAN TO SMOKE.  LIKE A  MEXICAN REATA WHEN THE NYLON FINALLY BROKE. I AWOKE TO SEE THE  DOCTOR FLASHLIGHT PEERING IN MY EYES. HE'D APPARENTLY DETECTED  LIFE AND BEGUN TO IMPROVISE A TEST TO CHECK MY BRAIN. INVOLVING  TRIGONOMETRY. AND A SOOTHING VOICE. HE ASKED. WHAT'S '97 MINUS  3. WELL I STARED BACK AT HIM DUMBLY WITH A BLANK LOOK IN MY  EYES. I AM AFRAID THE DOG CONCLUDED HE HAS BEGUN TO STUPIFY. I  SAID DOC. JUST HOLD YOUR HORSES IS REALLY AIN'T QUITE FAIR. I CAN  READ A BRAND BLINDFOLDED JUST BY FEELING OF A HAIR. I CAN SPOT A  RAW IMPOSTOR BE A SADDLE HORSE FOR A MAN AND ALWAYS FIND  POLARIS. CRACK THE LIZARD IN THE SAND. I CAN COUNT A PAN A CATTLE  COMPOUND AND THROUGH THE GATE. NEVER MISSED A SINGLE STEER.  DOC, I COULD TELL YOU WHAT THEY ATE, ASK ME HOW TO TREAT A GRAVEL.  WHO'S WINNING ALL AROUND. THERE'S LOTS OF STUFF SAVVY THAT WILL  PROVE MY BRAIN STILL FOUND. BUT YOUR CONCLUSION THAT I'M DAFT  UPSTAIR. JUST A LAME BRAINED BUCKAROO. I'D HAVE PASSED YOUR  TEST, IF YOU HAD ASKED ME STUFF THAT I KNEW. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK  FROM OUT THERE. 

TEASE
THANKS, BAXTER. YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF BAXTER'S  HUMOR ONLINE AT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. UP NEXT, GREG HAS AN INTERNATIONAL SUPER TO  SHARE. HE'LL DO THAT RIGHT AFTER HTE BREAK. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE HAVE AN INTERNATIONAL  SUPER W6-TA FROM ILLINOIS TO SHARE WITH YOU. THIS TRACTOR WAS  PURCHASED FROM CANADA AND NEEDED A LITTLE TLC TO GET IT IN  WORKING CONDITION. EUGENE VANDEVOORDE SHARES HIS ADVENTURE  OF GETTING IT INTO THE U.S. AND HOW MUCH WORK HE PUT INTO  RESTORING IT.  THIS PARTICULAR TRACTOR HERE CAME FROM MANITOBA  CANADA IT WAS BROUGHT ACROSS THE BORDER AND I PURCHASED IT AND  BROUGHT IT OVER ACROSS THE BORDER AND BROUGHT IT HOME AND  RECONDITIONED IT IT WAS BEEN USED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT AND  HAD A LOT OF WEAR AND A LOT OF.  THINGS TO BE DONE TO IT. I REBUILT  THE REAR END. I REBUILT THE MOTOR. I PRACTICALLY REBUILT EVERYTHING  THE RADIATOR PUT NEW TIRES ON IT DID EVERYTHING I NEEDED TO DO TO  GET IT IN THE CONDITION IT'S IN NOW. NEW SEATS AND ALL THAT KIND OF  STEERING WHEELS MUFFLER SOME OF THE THINGS THAT GOTTEN TAKEN OFF  OF IT BEFORE I GOT IT. AND I HAD TO REPLACE THOSE MECHANICALLY  SOUND RIGHT NOW. IT'S IN REALLY EXCELLENT CONDITION.  WHEN I GOT  THESE OVER THE BORDER THE LAW TOLD ME THAT IF I COULD DRIVE THEM  OVER THE BORDER THERE WOULDN'T BE ANY PROBLEM. BUT OF COURSE,  THEY WOULDN'T RUN.  THEY WERE USED IN THE WHEAT FIELDS IN  CANADA IN PLANTERS OF SOME KIND YOU KNOW WEEK PLANNER OR THE  DESIGN OF IT IS NOT THE MOST COMFORTABLE TRACTOR BUT IT'S A  DEPENDABLE TRACTOR. I MEAN IT'S GOT ALL THE GOODIES IT'S GOT THE  TORQUE AMPLIFIER AND LIVE PTO AND DOESN'T HAVE POWER STEERING  YOU KNOW. I WISH IT DID BUT I DON'T. THEY DIDN'T HAVE IT. I DON'T  KNOW IF THAT TIME OR NOT BUT. IT'S BASICALLY STILL PRETTY PRETTY GOOD  PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  AREA CHURCHES TOGETHER PARISH. IT'S A  COOPERATVE MINISTRY LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL  MINNESOTA, INCLUDING 7 RURAL AND SMALLTOWN  CHURCHES.  THE PARISH HAS TWO VERY BUSY PASTORS AND 500  MEMBERS.  OUR THANKS TO CARLTON NELSON FOR SHARING THAT  WITH US.   STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK WELL I CAN I BELIEVE SOME PEOPLE ARE ALREADY HARVESTING AND I HEAR COTTON FARMERS ARE ACTUALLY ROLLING IN IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FARMERS SAY YIELDS ARE GOOD AT THIS POINT AND MAYBE BETTER THAN 2016. CHARLES RING OF ST. PAUL TEXAS SAYS THEY'RE DONE WITH CORN AND SORGHUM. THEIR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO COTTON. AWFULLY GOOD. I MEAN WE'VE SEEN SOME TWO AND A HALF TO TWO AND THREE QUARTER BIG AND DRY LAND THIS YEAR. SO WE HAVEN'T GOT TO IRRIGATED. SO THAT'LL BE ABOUT A WEEK OR TWO AWAY WITH KATAS LOOKING GOOD QUALITY IS GOOD BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T HAD A RAIN SINCE IT OPENED. ALSO IN TEXAS A RAIN SLOWED DOWN HARVEST THIS WEEK ON KIMBREL FARMS THERE IN ITASCA TEXAS. ONE OF THESE SAYS YIELDS ARE GOOD AND ACTUALLY SURPRISING FOR SOME BUT THEY'RE REALLY JUST GETTING STARTED. AND RIGHT NOW IN THAT LIDER GROUND SO NOT THEIR BEST YIELDS. WELL I CANNOT BELIEVE IT MIKE BUT CANCELLER TURNED 3 THIS WEEK I CANNOT BELIEVE WE ALREADY ARE AT OUR THIRD BIRTHDAY BUT IT'S SO FUN BECAUSE NOW SHE'S REALLY STARTING TO UNDERSTAND THAT IT'S HER BIRTHDAY AND REALLY SOAKING IN EVERY SECOND. SO THAT WAS FUN. AND MIKE I UNDERSTAND AUGUST IS NOW A SPECIAL MONTH FOR YOU AS WELL. MY GRANDDAUGHTER FIRST ONE BORN ON SUNDAY SO AUGUST 6 THAT WAS FANTASTIC OBVIOUSLY TO BECOME A GRANDPARENT AND EVERYONE'S HEALTHY EVERYONE'S HEALTHY. EMILIA CONNIE CONNIE WAS MY MOM'S NAME AND SO SPECIAL. SO ARE YOU GRANDPA GRANDFATHER. GRANDPA WHAT'S WHAT'S THE NAME. THEY CAN CALL ME WHATEVER THEY WANT TO YOU KNOW IN MY MOM'S CASE IT WAS GRANDMA UNTIL THE KIDS BECAME TEENAGERS AND IT WAS GILLMORE YEAH MY DAD JUST SOMETHING. GUS IT IS SUPPOSED TO BE GREAT AND IT'S JUST AMAZING. IT'S AMAZING HOW KIDS EVOLVES. WELL IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A PHOTO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IT YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN FOR ALL OF US A U.S. FARM REPORT THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

 

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