USFR Weekly Recap - August 19-20, 2017

August 19, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 19-20, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.. IT'S A TRADE PACT MORE THAN 2 DECADES OLD... NOW  THAT RENOGTIATIONS ARE UNDERWAY, THERE'S A  GREAT DIVIDE, WITH AG BUSINESSES ON EDGE.  <"THERE'S A LOT AT STAKE AS NAFTA RENEGOTIATIONS  BEGIN. WE'LL BE IN MEXICO FOR A SPECIAL REPORT."> FROM POTATOES TO BEETS TO HAY, IDAHO FAREMRS  ARE DIVERSIFYING TO DODGE THE ECONOMIC  HEADWINDS...  <I THINK THAT'S HOW YOU'RE GOING TO SURVIVE> AND IT'S GROWING DEMAND FOR HAY EQUIPMENT  DRIVING EQUIPMENT TRENDS IN THE AREA.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <INFRASTRUCTUR EINVESTMENT><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

CROP PROGRESS REPORT
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK, LESS THAN A WEEK AFTER USDA SHOCKED THE  MARKET WITH LARGER THAN EXPECTED PRODUCTION  NUMBERS, THE AGENCY BOOSTING U-S CORN  CONDITION RATINGS, WHILE TRIMMING A FEW POITNS  OFF OF CONDITIONS IN A MAJOR CORN GROWING  STATE.  MONDAY'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS A TWO  POINT GAIN IN OVERALL CROP CONDITION. 62-PERCENT  IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOST OF THE TOP CORN STATES SAW A SLIGHT  IMPROVEMENT, BUT IOWA SAW A THREE POINT SLIDE. 61- PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. . THAT'S NINE STRAIGHT WEEKS WHERE IOWA CORN  CONDITION HAS DROPPED. ON JUNE 19TH IT WAS 80- PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. NOW TO SOYBEANS - THERE'S A ONE POINT DROP-OFF  THIS WEEK. 59-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WE SEE A DOWNGRADE IN ILLINOIS, IOWA, NEBRASKA  AND OHIO.  IN THE SOUTH - COTTON CONDITIONS CLIMBED FOUR  POINTS THIS WEEK WITH 61-PERCENT GOOD TO  EXCELLENT. AND THE PEANUT CROP SHOWING STRENGTH WITH 80- PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT...UP A POINT FROM  LAST WEEK. FARMERS IN THE SOUTH ARE TAKING IN RECORD  SHATTERING YIELDS.  USDA'S LATEST REPORT PROJECTS YIELDS IN  LOUISIANA TO CLIMB 27 POINTS OVER LAST YEAR, TO  192 BUSHEL PER ACRE AVERAGE.  IT'S FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START HTE GROWING  SEASON AND A MILD SUMMER HELPING PUSH YIELDS  HIGHER THIS YEAR.  "CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IRRIGATION, AND  WHEN THAT YIELD MONITOR IS WELL OVER 200 BUSHELS AND NOT BEING  IRRIGATED, YOU GET EXCITED PRETTY QUICK,"> FROMEE SAYS NON-IRRIGATED CORN YIELDS ARE  YIELDING ABOUT THE SAME AS IRRIGATE CROPS THIS  YEAR. 

DROUGHT MONITOR
THAT DROUGHT IN IOWA IS EATING AWAY AT CROP  CONDITIONS. CHECK OUT HTE LATEST DROUGHT  MONITOR.  IN IOWA, EXTREME DROUGHT ENTERING THE PICTURE,  THAT'S THE RED SPOTS INTEH SOUTH CENTRAL  PORTION OFHTE STATE. AND MODERATE DROUGHT, OR  HTE TAN SHADE, GROWING 4 POINTS. AND MONTANA. DRYNESS GREW NEARLY 10 POINTS  WITH DROUGHT NOW COVERING MORE THAN 97  PERCENT OF THE STATE. MODERATE DROUGHT JUMPED 9 POINTS. THE BIGGEST RELIEF RESIDES IN OKLAHOMA.CHECK  OUT THE DIFFERENCE IN JUST A WEEK. SEVERE AND  MODERATE DROUGHT WIPED OFF HTE MAP. AND  ABORNALLY DRY AREA IMPROVING FROM 40 PERCENT  TO 14 PERCENT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, THE DROUGHT HAVING A RIPPLE EFFECT  ON CASH FLOW, WITH MORE THAN HALF OF AG  BANKERS IN A RECENT SURVEY SHOWING IMPACTS  FROM THE DROUGHT THIS YEAR. 

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
THE MOST RECENT RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX CAME IN  AT 42 POINT 2. THAT'S SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN JULY'S 40  POINT  READING, BUT STILL BELOW GROWTH NUETRAL.    IT'S THE SAME STORY, WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS  STEMMING FROM LOWER COMMODITY PRICES. BUT  DROUGHT IS A MAJOR CONCERN, WITH 57 POINT 6  OF  BANKERS SAYING DROUGHT IS HAVING A NEGATIVE  IMPACT ON FARMERS BOTTOMLINEA BUMPER CROP IN BRAZIL MEANS MAJOR AG GROWING AREAS ARE RUNNING OUT OF STORAGE SPACE. IT'S A RECORD SOYBEAN CROP COMBINED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SAFRHINA CORN CROP CAUSING THE ISSUE WITH CORN NOW PILING ON SOYBEANS FAREMRS ARE RELUCTANT TO SELL DUE TO LOWER PRICES. NOW STORAGE FACILITIES WORRY THERE WON'T BE ANY SPACE FOR HTE '17-'18 SOYBEAN CROP.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS SEEING SOME NICE RAINS THIS  WEEK. AND I KNOW A LOT OF SOYBEAN FIELDS COULD  SOME OF THAT RAIN. SO, WHO DO YOU THINK GETS RAIN  OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS?  THANKS, TYNE. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE JET STREAM LEVEL WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SCATTERED ANYWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A LITTLE BIT LESS DOWN SOUTH. AND OF COURSE YOU CAN SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR REALLY PRETTY MUCH NONEXISTENT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR SOUTHERN STATES. OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WE'VE SEEN THAT DROUGHT EXPAND INTO PARTS OF IOWA AS YOU CAN SEE THE ONE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. A MONTH AGO WE WERE ALREADY SEEING IT VERY DRY IN THOSE AREAS IT TURNED INTO AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN PARTS OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. AND LIKE I SAID JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WE'VE EXPANDED THAT A LITTLE BIT INTO IOWA. SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY. WE'LL START ON MONDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FIRST FRONT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS STATES ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DRY AND WARM IN THE EAST. TAKE A LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THEN THAT FIRST FRONT HEADING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN ANOTHER LITTLE SLOW MOVER KIND OF DIVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS GOOD NEWS THERE INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TAKE A LOOK AT FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PLAIN STATES HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THAT NEXT COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A CHANGE WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN AS WELL. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
IF YOU'RE PLANNING ON ATTENDING FARM PROGRESS  SHOW THIS YEAR IN DECATUR, ILLINOIS, COME SEE US!  OUR MARKETING ROUNDTABLE WILL BE LIVE FROM THE  CHANNEL TENT ON TUESDAY AT NOON. COME JOIN US  FOR MARKETS AND LUNCH.  NEXT UP, WE'RE ON THE ROAD AGAIN THIS WEEK, THIS  TIME TO THE DEKALB, ASGROW FIELD DAY IN WEST  LAFAYETTE, INDIANA. BRIAN BASTING AND BOB  UTTERBACK JOIN ME NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND WELL AS PROMISED WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH OUR FRIENDS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO CALVN AS GROW TEAM AT THEIR FIELD DAY HERE IN WEST LAFAYETTE A GOOD TURNOUT. SO THANKS FOR THE INVITE THIS WEEK. LET'S START OFF TALKING ABOUT OLD CRAP. YOU KNOW I KNOW WE HAVE A LOT OF VIEWERS OUT THERE WHO ARE STILL SETTING ON A LOT OF OLD CROP CORN JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT HAD AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO MARKET THAT GRAIN THIS YEAR.  SO IF THEY HAVE OLD CROP BRIGHT WHAT'S YOUR ADVICE AT THIS POINT ARE REALLY ENCOURAGING YOUR VIEWERS TIME TO GET A FLOOR INTO THE MARKET GET CONTROL THE OLD CRAP BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH OLD CRAP OUT THERE RELATIVE TO NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MARKET KNOWS IT'S OUT THERE SO IT'S BEEN WEIGHING ON THE MARKET. GET CONTROL YOUR OLD CRAP GET A FLOOR IN PLACE. WHAT ARE THE THINGS YOU CONSIDER IS TO BUY A CALL OPTION. GIVE YOURSELF UPSIDE POTENTIAL BUT IT'S IMPERATIVE TO GET A FLOOR IN PLACE. OK.  YOU'RE SAYING ONE OPTION IS BUY A CALL OPTION. WHAT DO YOU THINK AT THIS POINT BOB.  I THINK THE KEY IS A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE THINKING ABOUT DEFERRED PRICING WE'RE DELIVER THE GRAIN GIVE THE CONTROL TO THE ELEVATOR AND STAY FLAT TO MARKET. BUT THAT'S LIKE PLAYING POKER AND GIVING YOUR COMPETITION THE MONEY TO PLAY AGAINST YOU. I THINK IF YOU'RE GOING TO DO IT YOU NEED TO CUT IT. BASICALLY SELL THE CASH AND BUY IT ON A CALL. BUT I WOULD WANT TO BUY IT IN THE MONEY CALL OR YOU GOT TO SELL THE CARRY GO OUT THERE AND SELL. RIGHT NOW THE MARKET'S PAYING YOU ALMOST THREE CENTS MONTH CLEAR TO DEC 18, SELL THE CARRY AND BE SATISFIED. BUT THE KEY IS I THINK WE'RE CLOSE TO A FLAT PRICE. BUT IS IT CAN BE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE WE REALLY GET ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAT PRICE RECOVERY WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE NEXT SPRING SUMMER IF WE DON'T WATCH HERSELF. WE'RE GOING TO END UP NEXT SUMMER JUST LIKE WE WAS THIS YEAR WITH A LOT OF OLD CROP INVENTORY AROUND HER BY WAITING FOR WEATHER SCARE TO BAIL HIM OUT AND END UP WITH LESS THAN POSITIVE RESULTS.  NOW WHAT WE HAVE THIS BEARISH TONE IN THE MARKET ESPECIALLY AFTER THIS AUGUST USDA REPORT AND I'M NOT HERE TO BLAME USDA AT THIS POINT BUT AT ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE, THAT YIELD I MEAN AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME. HOW BIG OF A CHANCE DO WE HAVE THAT THEY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THAT ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE NATIONAL CORN YIELD. EVERY YEAR IS DIFFERENT TIME.  THAT'S CERTAINLY A STARTING POINT FOR 2017 I THINK WHAT WE GOT TO DO IS REMEMBER THAT THAT'S ONLY A STARTING POINT. YOU CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT FROM HERE. STILL YOU WANT TO BE PREPARED. WHAT WE'VE ENCOURAGED OUR GROWERS TO THINK ABOUT IS RATHER THAN REACT TO THE MARKET BE PREPARED FOR THE MARKET AHEAD OF TIME. BE PREPARED AHEAD TIME BECAUSE A LOT CAN CHANGE BOTH THE UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE. YEAH BUT I MEAN REALISTICALLY HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK THEY COULD COME OFF. I MEAN THE STARTING AT ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE WE'RE STARTING REALLY HIGH. I MEAN ONE SIXTY SIX POINT SIXTY FIVE. YOU THINK THEY WON'T GO MUCH LOWER THAN THAT.  I THINK AT THIS POINT THE TRADE IS PROBABLY FACTORING IN SOMETHING CLOSER TO 166 165 AT THIS POINT. WE JUST GOT TO LET THIS PLAY OUT. I DO THINK THAT'S A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT.  THE 93 MODEL IS THE BEST THINK GUIDE AND I THINK THE SEPTEMBER REPORT WILL BE A BULLISH EVENT A BULLISH EVENT. SO BEARS THAT IF YOU'RE SHORT THE MARKET YOU NEED TO GET TO THE BACK END IF YOU FEEL BUYERS NEED TO GET COVERED. BUT THE POINT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 166 AND 162 IS PROBABLY BETWEEN 3 95 TO 450 CORN AND I DON'T THINK 450 CORN IS IN THE IN THE MAKE UP UNLESS YOU WANT TO TALK A VERY POSITIVE O=BEAN OUTLOOK, POSITIVE WHEAT. SO THESE 450 BULLS OUT HERE I THINK ARE REALLY TALKING THEIR POSITION MORE THAN THE FUNDAMENTALS. YOU'VE GOT TO PROVE THIS SHIELD DOWN AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE AT LEAST TWO REPORTS BEFORE YOU CAN GET A SHOT OF GETTING STOCKS BELOW 1 7 1 8. YEAH YOU SAY A BULLISH REPORT BUT LOOKING AT WHERE WE ARE PRICES TODAY I MEAN WHEN YOU SAY BULLISH HOW BULLISH.  I THINK THREE 395. THREE $94 CORN IS IT UNLESS WE EAT BEANS. BEANS REALLY TIES OUR HANDS IF WE CAN GET BEANS TO RALLY. CORN CAN'T REALLY GO TO 450 475 WHICH I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL WANT TO ARGUE WITH A 161 160 CORN TOO. SO FOR 165 166 AND BEANS YIELD IS AT 49.  WE'RE STUCK. SPEAKING OF BEANS I WAS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEK AT THE PREMIER COOPERATIVE EVENT AND THEY DID THEIR OWN CROP TOUR AND THEY CAME OUT WITH YIELDS THAT WERE 15 PERCENT BELOW LAST YEAR AND THAT'S PRETTY CONSISTENT WHAT I'M HEARING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER FOR THEIR SOYBEAN CROP THEY SAID IF WE GET THESE RAINS THIS WEEK IF WE GET THESE RATES NEXT WEEK OUR BEANS CAN POTENTIALLY BE BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. SO IF WE HAVE THESE RAINS IF WE SEE HIGHER SOYBEAN YIELDS NOT GOING TO DO THE MARKETS ANY FAVORS YOU KNOW HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT WE COULD SEE CORN ACTUALLY RALLY AND SOYBEANS GO LOWER.  I HAVE TO AGREE WITH BOB THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR FOR THE CORN AND BEANS TO MOVE IN TANDEM TOGETHER NOT NECESSARILY LOCKSTEP TO MOVE IN TANDEM TOGETHER AND OVER TIME YOU DO RARELY SEE ONE GO SHARPLY HIGHER AND THE OTHER NOT FOLLOW SUIT AND VICE VERSA. SO I THINK THERE IS SOME RELATIONSHIP THERE THAT WOULD WOULD HOLD BACK CORN IF YOU WILL AND IF BEAN YIELDS ARE AS HIGH AS WE'RE PAST SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT MIGHT BE A CAP ON THE CORN MARKET TOO. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE FARM JOURNAL CROP TO OUR NEXT WEEK DOES THE TRADE EVEN CARE AT THIS POINT. WHAT COMES OUT OF CROP TOUR. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK AGAIN WE'RE AT THE FIELD DAY IN NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE DEKALB AND ASGROW BIG THANKS FOR HAVING US OUT THIS WEEK. FARM JOURNAL CROP TOUR , FORMALLY KNOW AS PROFARMER CROP TOUR, HAPPENS NEXT WEEK A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED CROP TO HER EVERY YEAR. BUT LOOKING AT USDA AND THIS ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE THIS HIGH PRODUCTION NUMBER THAT THEY CAME OUT WITH IN AUGUST. DO YOU THINK THE TRAY EVEN CARES AT THIS POINT WHAT HAPPENS EACH DAY ON CROP TOUR. I DO THINK THE TRADE CARES TIME BECAUSE THE FARM EUROCOPTER HAS AN ESTABLISHED TRACK RECORD THERE. THEY'RE WELL-TRAINED. I KNOW THE FOLKS WHO ORGANIZED THAT TOUR AND IT IS SOMETHING NOT ONLY DOMESTICALLY THAT THE U.S. LOOKS AT BUT ALSO WORLDWIDE IS SOMETHING THAT IS LOOKED AT. NOW AGAIN IT'S NOT A PERFECT TOUR. NO TOUR IS BUT IT'S DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT'S CLOSELY WATCHED.  BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY START IN OHIO. YOU KNOW WE STARTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO KIND OF HARD HIT AREAS WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THESE SOME OF THESE YIELD. SO I MEAN DO YOU EXPECT THAT WE'RE GOING TO KIND OF SEE SOME FAVORABLE NUMBERS TO START OUT.  I THINK THE MARKET BOUGHT CORN LAST WEEK AT 64 65 WANTING TO BE BULLISH SHORT TERM GOAL REPORT. AND I THINK THE MARKET WANTS TO ARGUE A SHORT TERM BOUNCE FROM THE REPORT THAT WILL BE INDICATIVE OF THE 165. BUT AS BRIAN SAID THIS IS JUST A IT'S GOT SOME OBJECTIVE STUDIES THIS FIRST OBJECTIVE COUNT. BUT THE MARKET IS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO GO NUTS SO I THINK IT WILL BE DISAPPOINTED THAT THERE'S NO FOLLOW THROUGH THEN WILL FADE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ONE OF THE BIG THINGS WHAT I THINK IS HITTING THE MARKET AND I CAN TRACE DOWN THERE WAS A LOT OF CONTRACTS MAY BACK IN APRIL MAY JUNE WHERE FARMERS DELIVERED TO CORN TO THE ELEVATORS STAYED ON PRICE GAINS IN SEPTEMBER CORN AND THEY HAD TO DELIVER AGAINST THAT CONTRACT IN SEPTEMBER NIGHT. THAT'S THAT'S THE COMMERCIALS HAD TO SELL THE MARKET AND THAT'S GETTING FLUSHED TO THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. I THINK ONCE THAT FLUSHES THROUGH THEN THE MARKET WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER IN SEPTEMBER GETTING PREPARED FOR THE SEPTEMBER SUPPLY DEMAND. SO WE'RE IN A PERIOD OF CHOPPINESS. WELL THINK CORN HAS GOT THE DOWNSIDE. THE QUESTION CAN BEANE'S RALLY. RIGHT. THAT'S THE RULE. THAT'S I THINK THE MONEY WE NEED TO WATCH WILL LET'S SAY CROP TOUR COMES OUT NEXT WEEK AND SAYS YOU KNOW WHAT USDA WAS TOO HIGH IN THESE NUMBERS. YOU KNOW YIELD COULD BE LOWER THAN LET'S SAY THE USDA DOES CONTINUE TO REVEAL THAT MAYBE THIS CORN CROP IS NOT AS BIG AS WHAT THEY ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LET'S SAY WE GET DOWN LIKE THAT 166 YIELD. DO YOU THINK THAT'S ENOUGH TO KIND OF REDUCE THIS TO YOU KNOW REDUCE THIS 2 BILLION BUSHEL CARRY OUT NUMBER THAT WE HAVE. CAN WE GET UNDER THAT THAT 2 BILLION MARK.  IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE I THINK THAT THE ONE THING THAT'S GOING TO CAP THE MARKET TO SOME DEGREE IS THE EXPORT MARKET THIS FALL IS GOING TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN A YEAR AGO. WE DO HAVE TO TURN AND TURN THE TABLE IF YOU WILL ON DEMAND. AND I THINK THIS FALLS EXPORT MAN WITH A HUGE CROP IN BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA IS SOMETHING IS GOING TO WEIGH ON A RALLY AT THE. SPEAKING OF BRAZIL READ A STORY THIS WEEK WHERE YOU KNOW THAT THE FARMERS JUST ARE NOT ENCOURAGED TO SELL RIGHT NOW SO THEY'VE THEY'RE SETTING ON ON THEIR MAJOR SOYBEAN CROP AND NOW THEY'RE SAFHRINA CORN CROP THAT'S SO HUGE THEY'RE PILING THAT ON TOP OF THE SOYBEANS AND THEY MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH STORAGE SPACE NEXT YEAR FOR THE SOYBEAN CROP SO JUST A HUGE CROP OUT THERE. THAT SEEMS LIKE IT'S JUST GOING TO BE A WET BLANKET ON THE ON THE MARKET TAKES THE WORDS OUT OF MY MOUTH.  IT JUST THAT'S THE WET BLANKET ON THE DOMESTICLY MARKET. SO THAT IS A STRONG ARGUMENT FOR SLOWING THE CARRY. BUT FARMERS IN MY EXPERIENCE HISTORICALLY PUT THE CORN IN THE BIN AND PRICE BECAUSE THE FLAT PRICE IS BELOW THE TOTAL COST OF OPERATION AND THEY'RE GOING TO BE LONG THE FRONT END AND WHAT THE RISK IS IN THE BACKEND WHICH YEARS CARRY THE BACK AND KIND OF SLIPS IN THE FRONT AND COMES UP. BUT WHEN THEY PUT STORAGE COSTS AFTER NINE MONTHS THEY'RE GOING TO BE WORSE OFF TAKING THE GRAIN OUT NEXT SUMMER. IF THE MARKET DOESN'T HAVE A WEATHER SCARE EVENT SO I THINK YOU SHOULD SELL THE CARRY AND IF YOU WANT TO BE BULLISH FLAT PRICE CAN YOU ORGANIZE THAT WITH A COAL POSITION IN THE MINING COAL IN THE PAPER YOU MENTIONED DEMAND LET'S SAY USDA IS RIGHT LET'S SAY THIS ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE YIELD IS RIGHT THEIR PRODUCTION IS RIGHT. HOW BIG OF AN INCREASE DO WE NEED TO SEE AND DEMAND TO OFFSET IT AND KIND OF LIFT PRICES MOVING FORWARD.  WELL THE MARKET'S GOING TO FEEL HEAVY IF 169 IS TRULY BIG THE SIZE OF THE CROP UNLESS WE RUN INTO SOME WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH SOUTH AMERICA FOR NEXT YEAR'S CROP. I THINK OUR DEMAND BASE IS STRONG DOMESTICALLY HERE ETHANOL AND FEED BUT DOWN THE ROAD I THINK THE FIRST HALF OF THIS CRAP YEAR THE EXPORT MARKET IS GOING TO FEEL KIND OF WEAK. SO THE MARKET MIGHT HAVE A STRUGGLE IF THAT CROP IS REALLY THAT BIG. NOT THE NEWS WE WANTED TO HEAR. ALL RIGHT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WE'LL BE BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

MARKETS NOW
I'LL WRITE TO WRAP UP OUR MARKING ROUNDTABLE TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. BRIAN.  GET CONTROL OF YOUR CROP. . THAT MEANS REMAINING OLD CRAP AND PRICE BUSHELS AND NEW CROP. GET A FLOOR UNDERNEATH THE MARKET GIVE YOURSELF FLEXIBILITY OF THESE YIELD SURPRISES TO THE DOWNSIDE HERE IN THE US TO BE ABLE TO BE A PARTICIPANT IF WE DO SEE A RALLY THIS FALL BUT GET CONTROL YOU'LL FEEL BETTER THAN YOU DO RIGHT NOW. ALL RIGHT.  BUT FEED BUYERS NEED TO BE THINKING IN BETWEEN NOW AND MID-SEPTEMBER TIME PERIOD TO GET THEIR FEET NEEDS FOR NEXT SPRING SUMMER LOCK DOWN HOG PRODUCERS NEED TO BE FOR THE FIRST AND FOURTH QUARTER OR SO ON HOGS TO PROTECT THE DOWNSIDE RISK.  ALL RIGHT. THANKS BOB. THANKS BRIAN WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN JUST A MOMENT.

JOHN’S WORLD
INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE IS SOMETHING THE  AG COMMUNITY HAS LOBBIED FOR A LONG TIME. AND  THE PUSH FOR MORE MONEY FOR WATERWAYS, ROADS  AND BRIDGES IS JUST GETTING STRONGER. HERE'S  JOHN PHIPPS.  HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL IN AGRICULTURE AS BUDGET TALKS SPUTTER ALONG  IN WASHINGTON. OF COURSE, FARMERS ARE PUSHING HARD FOR MONEY TO MAKE OUR SAFETY NET MORE GENEROUS. AND THERE IS ONE PERENNIAL PLEA: FUNDS TO REBUILD OUR INFRASTRUCTURE. SPECIFICALLY,  ROADS, BRIDGES, LOCKS AND PORTS THAT ALL TYPES OF FACILITIES THAT  COULD HELP MOVE AG COMMODITIES. I CERTAINLY AGREE WITH THE ASSERTION THAT OUR SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR  TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, AND PUBLIC SERVICES COULD BE  BETTER, EVEN MUCH BETTER, BUT I AM BEGINNING TO BE SKEPTICAL OF  THE URGENCY THAT MARKS THESE PLEAS. TO MY KNOWLEDGE, OUR  INFRASTRUCTURE HAS BEEN LABELED NEARLY UNACCEPTABLE FOR MY  ENTIRE CAREER. AND YET, DURING THAT TIME, WE HAVE SOMEHOW  MANAGED TO GROW AND SHIP EVER-LARGER AMOUNTS OF GRAIN AND  PROTEIN. WHILE I KNOW THAT WE ALL MEAN MY ROAD AND MY BRIDGE  WHEN WE DEMAND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS, WE ALSO DREAM  OF HIGHER GRAIN BIDS THAT WOULD COME ABOUT WITH MAJOR UPGRADES  LIKE DREDGING RIVERS OR NEW LOCKS. IT SEEMS EVERY YEAR PROFESSIONAL ENGINEERS GRADE OUR  INFRASTRUCTURE AND I CAN'T REMEMBER EVER SEEING A GRADE I WOULD  HAVE BEEN HAPPY TO SHOW MY PARENTS. SOMEWAY, THOUGH THIS  D SYSTEM GETS THE JOB DONE WITHOUT BRAZIL-TYPE TRUCK LINES OR BRIDGE COLLAPSES. MAYBE ASKING CIVIL ENGINEERS WHETHER WE NEED  THEM TO BUILD NEW ROADS AND BRIDGES IS LIKE ASKING YOUR BARBER IF  YOU NEED A HAIRCUT. I KNOW WE ARE RUNNING ON BORROWED TIME, BUT CONSTANTLY  PREDICTING IMMINENT COLLAPSE HASN'T BEEN EITHER EFFECTIVE OR  ACCURATE. AT ANY RATE, IF WE HAVE LEARNED NOTHING FROM LEGISLATIVE  ACTION IN THE US IN THIS CENTURY, IT IS THAT ACTIONS ARE TAKEN  USUALLY IN RESPONSE TO A CRISIS THAT HAS HAPPENED, NOT ONE WE  COULD AVOID.  THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME. ALL THE HYPE AROUND

TEASE
NAFTA COMING TO A HEAD, AS LEADERS FROM ALL  THREE NATIONS START NEGOTATIONS ON A NEW TRADE  PACT. AFTER HTE BREAK, CLINTON TAKES US SOUTH OF  HTE BORDER TO SEE WHY THESE TRADE TALKS HAVE  BUSINESS ON EDGE. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  CONCERNS CLIMB IN MEXICO AS NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS  HEAT UP THIS WEEK.  DIVERSITY IS HOW LOCAL FARMERS SAY THEY'RE  SURVING THE ECONOMIC TIMES... AND IT'S THAT  DIVERSITY DRIVING EQUIPMENT TRENDS IN IDAHO.  AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, AN UNANSWERED  QUESTION ON DICAMBA

NAFTA AND MEXICO
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, THE OFFICIAL START TO  NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS KICKED OFF WEDNESDAY. AND  ONLY A FEW HOURS INTO THE IT, SIGNS SHOWED TRADE  TALKS WERE ALREADY OFF TO A ROCKY START.  PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CALLING FOR MAJOR  CHANGES TO THE TRADE PACT MORE THAN 2 DECADES  OLD. WHILE OFFICIALS FROM BOTH CANAD AND MEXICO  WANT TWEAKS.  THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU, ALONG WITH THE CANDIAN FEDERATION OF AGRICULTURE AND MEXICO'S  AG ASSOCIATION SENDING A LETTER TO GOVERNMENT  OFFICIALS, URGING THEM TO MODERNIZE THE  AGREEMENT, NOT DISMANTLE IT.  LOOKING AT IT BY THE NUMBERS, CANADA IS THE  NUMBER 2 BUYER OF OVERALL AG GOODS. AND MEXICO  RANKS THIRD ON THAT LIST.  BUT A GRAIN BUYER IN MEXICO TELLING U-S FARM  REPORT, THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING NAFTA IS  IMPACTING WHAT HE BUYS RIGHT NOW.   <ARTURO BASULTO\INTER INDUSTRIAS DEL SURESTE "ARE YOU WAITING TO BUY GRAIN FOR OCTOBER YES USUALLY BY NOW WE HAVE OUR GRAIN PURCHASES ALL THE WAY  THROUGH DECEMBER. BUT AS NEGOTIATIONS START WE'RE JUST WAITING  TO SEE WHAT EACH GOVERNMENT'S POSITION IS GOING TO BE IN  RELATIONSHIP TO THE AGREEMENT SPECIFICALLY AS IT PERTAINS TO  AGRICULTURE."> MEANWHILE, ONE OF HTE BIGGEST RUBS WITHIN NAFTA  IS OVER CAPTER 19,   A DISPUTE RESOLUTION WITHIN NAFTA.  BOTH MEXICO AND CANADA LOOKING TO AMPLIFY THE  MEASURE, WHILE THE U-S IS STRIVING TO ELIMINATE IT.     FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JIM  WIESEMEYER SAYS CHAPTER 19 DEALS WITH ILLEGAL  SUBSIDES AND DUMPING.  <IT ALLOWS THEM TO SEEK A REVIEW UNDER A BINATIONAL NAFTA PANEL  REGARDING THE TWO COUNTRIES IN DISPUTE. IN THIS CASE LET'S SAY IT'S  US AND CANADA. THEY INCLUDE THE TRADE EXPOERTS ON BOTH  COUNTRIES TO REEVALUATE THE LEGAL BASIS FOR ANY IMPOSED MEASURE  AGAINST A COUNTRY> THE U-S DOESN'T HAVE A GOOD TRACK RECORD,  LOSING MORE THAN HALF OF PAST CHAPTER 19 CASES.  INSTEAD, THE ADMINISTRATION PUSHING TO RESORT  BACK TO AN OLD TRADE REMEDY CALLED SNAPBACK.  <THAT CALLS FOR INCREASING TARIFFS ON IMPORTS IF THEY'RE PROJECTED TO  INJUR OR THREATEN TO INJUR A U.S. DOMESTIC INDUSTRY. NOW I THINK  MEXICO WILL ALSO FIGHT THIS BECAUSE IT WOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF CASES  I THINK PRIMARILY IN THE PRODUCE WHERE THERE'S BEEN CHARGES OF  ANTIDUMPING AREAS> WIESEMEYER SAYS NEGOTIATIONS REGARDING TRADE  DISPUTES IS SOMETHING TO WATCH, WITH CANADA  ALREADY DRAWING A LINE IN THE SAND SAYING THEY'LL  WALK AWAY FROM NAFTA IF CHAPTER 19 IS ELIMINATED.   AS NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS BEGIN, GRAIN BUYERS AND  END-USERS IN MEXICO ARE PAYING ATTENTION. LAST WEEK, CLINTON GRIFFITHS TRAVELED TO MEXICO  AS A GUEST OF THE U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL TO VISIT  WITH AMERICA'S CUSTOMERS....AND RIGHT NOW--THEY  SAY ANY FUTURE PLANS ARE ON HOLD AS TENSIONS  SURROUNDING NEGOTIATIONS HEAT UP. . WHETHER IT'S LOADED AND DRIVEN OR ROLLS OUT BY RAIL …  U.S. GRAINS ARE POURING OUT OF OUR COUNTRY.  HEADED FOR END USERS IN MEXICO. WE USE RAW MATERIAL CORN SORGHUM WHEAT FIBER LIKE COTTON SEED  HULLS TO MAKE FEED FOR LIVESTOCK  THIS FAMILY RUN FEED MILL SAYS NAFTA HELPED MAKE  THAT GRAIN… AND IN TURN THEIR FEED… COMPETITVE.  TODAY THEY'RE BAGGING OR SELLING ROUGHLY 50  MILLION METRIC TONS OF CORN AND SORGHUM A YEAR.  AND THEY'D LIKE TO BUY MORE. "WE HAVE A PLAN TO DO THAT FOR US TO GROW IN 2018"  BUT WE'RE  WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH NAFTA BEFORE MAKING THE  INVESTMENT." A MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR DECISION NOW PUTTING THEIR  BUSINESS AND FUTURES ON HOLD. "MY CHILDREN THEY'VE ALREADY STARTED A DIFFERENT BUSINESSES,  COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TO MY BUSINESS SO THEY WON'T HAVE TO  DEPEND ON MEXICAN POLICIES OR AMERICAN POLICIES." ABOUT AN HOUR AWAY…TUCKED INTO THE HILLSIDES  NEAR SABINAS HIDALGO IS THE RANCHO LA JOYA  FEEDLOT-WHERE OWNER MARTIN GONZALEZ ALSO  HOPES TO ONE DAY SHARE HIS BUSINESS WITH FAMILY. I MEAN THE BIGGEST PART OF THIS WAS MY PARENTS WORK. IT WAS  DISCIPLINE IT WAS THEIR HARD WORK AND THERE IS CONTINUITY TO THAT  AND THAT'S SOMETHING THAT I WANT TO CONVEY TO MY CHILDREN AND TO  MY GRANDCHILDREN. SINCE STARTING WITH 180 CALVES 30 YEARS AGO, THE  OPERATIONS HAS GROWN STEADILY- TODAY FEEDING ROUGHLY 3-THOUSAND TONS OF CORN  A MONTH TO 20 THOUSAND HEAD OF CATTLE.  "THERE'S REALLY A LOT OF POTENTIAL. MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  CONTINUE GROWING AND WE'RE FORTUNATE TO BE RIGHT NEXT TO THE  NUMBER ONE GRAIN COUNTRY. AN ADVANTAGE IN A COMPETITVE MARKET…WHERE  FEEDLOT NUMBERS CONTINUE TO FALL. PART 2 I'M COMPLETELY MARRIED TO NAFTA. IT'S GOING TO HELP OUR COUNTRY  IS GOING TO HELP BOTH COUNTRIES. FOR HIM-FINDING FEED ELSEWHERE IS A PROBLEM HE'D  RATHER NOT FACE. "WE COULD LOOK TO SOUTH AMERICA BUT IT'S REALLY NOT PRACTICAL I  MEAN ONLY IF THE UNITED STATES JUST REFUSED TO SELL TO US THEN WE  MIGHT HAVE TO RESORT TO THAT." 500 MILES TO THE SOUTH… U.S. GRAINS ARE SATISFYING A THIRST IN MEXICO'S  BURGEONING CRAFT BEER INDUSTRY. JAIME ANDREWU\CEO PRIMUS BREWERY IN MEXICO I THINK WHAT IT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN MEXICO IS PRETTY SIMILAR  FOR WHAT HAPPENED 25 YEARS AGO IN THE U.S.. IT'S A GROWING MARKET FOR BARLEY FARMERS IN  PLACES LIKE MONTANA.  PERCENT OF THE MEXICAN CRAFT BREWERIES AND RIGHT NOW  AND WE HAVE TO SAY THAT RIGHT NOW WE ARE 400 MEXICAN  BREWERIES. 80 PERCENT OF US WE IMPORT OUR BASE MALTS MAINLY  FROM THE U.S.. FREE TRADE BETWEEN NEIGHBORS IS HELPING STEEP  THE INDUSTRY HERE..BUT   IF SOMETHING CHANGES IN BETWEEN THE NAFTA BETWEEN MEXICO  AND THE U.S. OF COURSE THE BOOM OF CRAFT BEERS IN MEXICO CAN BE  DAMAGED A LITTLE BIT. AND SINCE MEXICO ONE OF THE LARGEST BEER  EXPORTERS IN THE WORLD THE IMPACT COULD BUBBLE  OVER INTO GLASSES ACROSS THE GLOBE. BUT WHAT I THINK IS WE HAVE TO REALLY PUSH OUR LAWMAKERS IN BOTH  SIDES OF THE BORDER MEXICO AND THE U.S. TO MAKE IT FAIR TO MAKE  IT SUSTAINABLE IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOR BOTH  COUNTRIES. WHEN I SAY OUR BEER IT'S NOT TEMPUS BEER IS NOT PRIMUS BEER IS  NOT MEXICAN BEER IT IS NORTH AMERICAN BEER.  ONE PRODUCT-TWO COUNTRIES AND THREE MEXICAN  BUSINESSES NOW CAUTIOUSLY WAITING TO SEE IF  THEIR FUTURE WILL INCLUDE MORE OR LESS AMERICAN  GRAIN. THANKS, CLINTON. WE'LL HAVE MORE INDEPTH COVERAGE OF NAFTA  NEGOTITIONS NEXT WEEK ON U-S FARM REPORT.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS, LET'S CHECK IN WITH  METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN WITH A LONGER- RANGE LOOK AT WEATHER.MIKE HARVEST IN FULL  SWING DOWN SOUTH.  AND THAT IS JUST GOING TO PRETTY MUCH STAY THE SAME TIM BECAUSE WE SEE A BIG RIDGE STILL SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAIN STATES PUTTING THIS MAP INTO MOTION AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK. YOU'LL NOTICE HOW THE RIDGE STARTS TO GO BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN. YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN IN THIS TRANSITION NOW FOR A WEEK AND A HALF OR SO BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO TAKE IT BACK AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO THE SAME PATTERN WE WERE HAVING THERE FOR A MONTH MONTH AND A HALF WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THE NORTHEAST RIDGE OUT WEST THAT'S BY WEDNESDAY THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK YOU CAN SEE THAT KIND OF STICKS AROUND WITH THE TROUGH TRYING TO COME INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THAT MAY SHOVE EVERYTHING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST MUCH OF CANADA AND THE WEST. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FROM KANSAS AND MISSOURI ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR NORMAL AND MOST OF THE CORNBELT GREAT LAKES BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST. THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
UP NEXT, A VIEWER HAS ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT A  POTENTIAL ISSUE HE SEES WITH LARGE USE OF  DICAMBA. WE'LL DO THAT AFTER THE BREAK. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
LAST WEEK JOHN SPENT QUITE A BIT OF TIME  DISCUSSING THE ISSUE SURROUNDING DICAMBA THIS  YEAR. BUT THAT LEFT A VIEWER WITH ONE QUESTION  UNANSWERED. JOHN.  KEVEN SWANZEY FROM MAINE, NEW YORK BRINGS UP AN INTERESTING  POINT ABOUT THE DICAMBA DEBATE. "EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE TALKING ABOUT HOW CROPS ARE IMPACTED. I  EVEN HEARD ONE SAY 'THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT DOES IT  HAVE ON CROP YIELD' BUT I HAVE YET TO HEAR ANY OF THESE AG SHOWS  TALK OR EVEN ASK THE QUESTION 'HOW DOES DICAMBA DRIFT AFFECT  HUMAN LIFE?'" GREAT QUESTION. LET'S THROW SOME FACTS AT IT. THE FIRST THING TO  KNOW IS DICAMBA IS AN OLD CHEMICAL. IT WAS DISCOVERED IN 1942  AND HAS BEEN USED AS A WEEDKILLER FOR DECADES. THIS MEANS  THERE HAS BEEN AMPLE TIME TO DETECT ANY LONGER TERM TOXICITY  PROBLEMS, AND NONE HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED. DICAMBA WORKS BY  INTERRUPTING THE GROWTH PROCESS OF CELLS IN PLANTS, SIMILAR TO THAT  OLD STAND-BY, 2,4-D. THIS DISRUPTION PROCESS IS INEFFECTIVE IN  ANIMALS WHICH MEANS DICAMBA HAS VERY LOW TOXICITY. TOXICITY IS MEASURED BY EXPERIMENTATION ON RATS USUALLY WHERE  THEY ARE FED INCREASING DOSES, UNTIL THEY CAN DETERMINE AT WHAT  LEVEL 50 PERCENT OF THE RATS DIE. THIS NUMBER IS CALLED LD50  WHERE LD STANDS FOR LETHAL DOES. THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE  BETTER. I DO NOT USE THE WORD SAFE WHEN TALKING ABOUT HAZARDS OF ANY  KIND, BECAUSE IT IMPLIES AN ABSOLUTE THAT SIMPLY DOESN'T EXIST.   FOR EXAMPLE, THERE IS AN LD50 FOR WATER, AND WE THINK OF IT AS  SAFE. WHAT I LIKE TO DO IS COMPARE THE TOXICITY TO OTHER COMMON  CHEMICALS. WHICH LEADS US TO THIS CHART FOR INGESTION - EATING. DICAMBA IS ABOUT FOUR TIMES LESS TOXIC THAN ASPIRIN.  I INCLUDED  GLYPHOSATE FOR COMPARISON AS WELL. IT IS ALMOST 30 TIMES LESS  TOXIC THAN ASPIRIN. AS FOR SKIN ABSORPTION AND INHALATION, DICAMBA IS RATED VERY LOW  TOXICITY, AND KEEP IN MIND THAT DRIFT VAPORS CONTAIN ONLY MINISCULE  AMOUNTS OF DICAMBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CARCINOGENIC HAZARDS  DETECTED, AND IT IS NOT AN ENDOCRINE DISRUPTOR.  IN SHORT, THE SAME PROPERTIES THAT MAKE MANY PLANTS EXQUISITELY  SENSITIVE TO DICAMBA MAKE IT AN EXTREMELY LOW HAZARD FOR  ANIMALS AND HUMANS. THIS IS THE BIGGEST REASON WHY MEDIA ARE  NOT TALKING ABOUT THIS, NOT SUPPRESSION BY GOVERNMENT OR  MANUFACTURERS.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU AHVE QUESTIONS OR  COMMENTS, YOU CAN EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S  FARM REPORT DOT COM.  UP NEXT, WE'RE ON TEH ROAD WTH MACHINERY PETE TO IDAHO, WHERE DIVERSITY IS PAYING OFF.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
WE CONTINUE OUR ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY  PETE SERIES, THIS TIME TRAVELIGN THE MOST MILES  WE HAVE YET, TO ABERDEEN IDAHO. STOTZ EQUIPMENT  SPANS FROM ARIZONA AS FAR NORTH AS IDAHO, ADN  THEY TELL US IT'S DIVERSITY IN THE LAND FARMED  THAT ALLOWS GROWERS TO THRIVE.  BRIGHT GREEN SUGAR BEETS SPAN FOR ACRES UPON  ACRES ACROSS THIS IDAHO FARM... AND ON GROUND  LEVEL, CROPS LOOK JUST AS GOOD.  <PRETTY WET. THEY LOOK GOOD THOUGH. > MOUNTAINS LINE THE HORIZON ON JOHN'S FARM, AND  IT'S SNOWPACK FROM THESE PEEKS THAT DELAYED  BEET PLANTING THIS YEAR.  <WE HAD A LOT OF SNOW I THINK ACTUALLY THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE  LAST TIME I HEARD WE WERE ABOUT 280 PERCENT OF NORMAL  SNOWPACK. >  ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK IS WHAT THE DRISCOLL  BROTHERS ARE CALLING A  GOD SEND. <WE'VE BEEN IN A DROUGHT FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. AND SO THERE'S THAT  HEAVY SNOW THAT WE HAD THIS WINTER. IF YOU CLOSE THE RESERVOIRS  IT'S ALMOST CHLOROPHYLL AND THAT DOESN'T USUALLY HAPPEN THAT WAY  IN THE JULY.> FROM BEETS TO POTATOES, ABUNDANCE WATER  SUPPLY MEANS IRRIGATION WATER IS PLENTIFUL,  WHICH SHOULD HELP THE CROPS FINISH STRONG.  < WITH THE NEW VARIETIES. THEY DON'T ROUGH UP AS EASY AND THEY  YIELD MORE. THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. WHEN I FIRST STARTED  FARMING WE WERE PROBABLY DOWN AROUND TWO HUNDRED EIGHTY TO  300 SACKS. NOW WE PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 430 AT THE LOW TO  600 650 PER ACRE> BUT THE DRISCOLL BROTHERS ARE ALSO BLAZING THE  PATH FOR BETTER HAY DEMAND IN THIS IDAHO VALLEY WE JUST STARTED A NEW VENTURE ON THAT MARKETIN GINTO CHINA,  THROUGH A HAY PRESS THAT WE'VE GONE INTO PARYNERS WITH SOME  PEOPLE FROM CHINA >  IT'S THAT NEW DEMAND BOOSTING ACRES <BEAUTIFUL HAY, THERE'S A LOT OF LEAF IN THERE>  AND HELPING OTHER FARMERS LIKE DIVERSIFY, AS  WELL.  <I THINK THAT'S HOW YOU'RE GOING TO SURVIVE> JOHNS SAYS WITH WANING WHEAT PRICES, GROWING  ALFALFA FOR HAY IS BECOMING MORE OF A STAPLE,   EVEN GOING IN WITH HIS BUSINESS PARTNER TO BUY A  NEW MACHINE.   < THAT WAY WE CAN  UTILIZE AND BUY THIS EXPENSEIVE EQUIPMENT AND USE IT MORE,> THAT ADDED MOMENTUM IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR  <SO HAYS ALWAYS BEEN A BIG DEAL FO RUS AND IN TEH LAST FOR  MONTHAS BEEN A HUGE UP TO TAKE IT AND WINDROWERS. A LOT OF SELF  PROPELLED WINDROWERS, EVEN A LARGE SQUARE BELOW MARKET .> HOT BUYS FOR HAY EQUIPMENT IS SOMETHING ALSO  SHOWING UP ON THE BOOKS FOR MACHINERY PETE.  <SECOND QUARTER EVEN INTO JULY IN FACT THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY WE  SAW SEARCH TRAFFIIC ON BIG SQUARE BALERS WAS UP 25, 26 PERCENT  VERSUS A MONTH AGO. > HE SAYS WEATHER IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE SURGE  THIS YEAR.  <YOU KNOW IT'S BEEN RAINING A LOT. IT'S BEEN WARM HERE. OR LATE  SPRING INTO THE MID SUMMER. SO I THINK THAT HELPS ALSO SOME  ISSUES IN CANADA WITH THE HAY UP THERE. I THINK THAT'S DRIVEN THE  PRICE UP A LITTLE BIT.> LOCAL DEALERS SAY THEY'RE SEEING FOOTING IN THE  COMBINE MARKET.  < I THINK THEY'RE STARTING TO STABILIZE LOOKING AT VALUES ACROSS THE  NATION. OTHERS ARE DOING HOW WE COMPARE HERE LOCALLY IN THIS  MARKET. I THINK COMBINES ARE STARTING TO GET TO THAT POINT WHERE  WE'VE WE'VE GOT THAT STRONG FOOTING AND THEY'RE STARTING TO COME  BACK UP NOW.> KYLE DOESN'T THINK THOSE VALUES TO REBOUND  SHORT-TERM, HE THINKS PRICES WILL SEE A SLOW  CLIMB.  THE DRISCOLLS ARE ADDING EQUIPMENT TO MEET  DEMANDS FROM A GROWING BUSINESS, WITH THE  THIRD GENERATION NOW ON THE FARM.  <HOW'S THE HAY DOING? GOOD CROP COMING> WALLY IS THE PATRIARCH, FIRST DIGGING INTO THESE  SOILS IN THE 50S.  <WE HAD TO DO EVERYTHING AND CUT THE SPUDS BY HAND PICK THEM  BY HAND BY HAND AND IN JUST THE OPPOSITE TODAY> WALLY SAYS THAT'S WHERE THE THIRD GENERATION  SHINES... FINDING A WAY TO BRING VALUABLE  TECHNOLOGIES ON BOARD.  < YOU'RE MAPPING EVERYTHING, YOU'RE  MESAURING EVERY LITTLE BIT OF HTE TRACTOR, WHETHER IT'S FUEL  ECONOMY, OR ACRES PER HOUR, OR PLANT POPLUATION IN THE FIELD>  STOTZ EQUIPMENT SAYS FINDING THE R-O-I ON SOME  TECHNOLOGY CAN BE A CHALLENGE, BUT THAT'S  SOMETHING JASON BEHRAND STRIVES TO DO EVERY  DAY.  < AND SO WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO IS FIND TECHNOLOGIES THAT WILL  HELP THEM QUICKLY ASSESS WHAT'S TAKING PLACE AND THEN MAKE THE  DECISIONS THAT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE TODAY.   WE NEED THAT  BRINGING TECHNOLOGY THAT CAN HELP THEM SOLVE PROBLEMS TODAY TO  IMPACT THE BOTTOM LINE TODAY AND THIS YEAR VERSUS PREPARING FOR  NEXT YEAR> WITH LITTLE WORRIES ABOUT WATER IN 2017, THE  OUTLOOK ON THE YEAR IS LOOKING UP... <I MEAN I'M POSITIVE BECAUSE OUR CROPS LOOK GOOD SO I THINK  WE'RE GOING TO CUT AND DIG GOOD CROPS. MARKETS ARE WHAT THEY  ARE BUT I MEAN THAT THAT'S FARMING YOU GOT TO STAY POSITIVE  OR YOU WOULDN'T DO IT.>  STOTZ ALSO SAYS SALES OF LOWER HORSEPOWER  EQUIMENT HAS BEEN A BIG SURPRISE THIS YEAR,  SOMETHING MACHINERY PETE IS ALSO SEEING. UP NEXT, MACHINERY PETE REJOINS US FOR TRACTOR  TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE ARE OFF TO ILLINOIS FOR A CLASSIC WD-45.  THIS ALLIS WAS PURCHASED NEW IN 1955 AND HAS BEEN ON THE FARM EVER SINCE.  TODAY, AFTER A FACELIFT OR TWO, THIS CLASSIC ALLIS SHOWS OFF ITS STRIPES AT LOCAL PARADES. THIS TRACTOR WAS PURCHASED NEW BY MY FATHER IN LAW HE WASN'T MY FATHER IN LAW AT THAT TIME BUT ANYHOW NEW BY HIM IN 1955 AND. IT'S BEEN ON THE FARM EVER SINCE. THERE WAS A TIME WHEN HE WAS IN KENTUCKY FOR TWO OR THREE YEARS IN HIS RETIREMENT AND I TOOK THE TRACTOR TO KENTUCKY FOR HIM AND HIS PASSING I WENT DOWN. I BROUGHT HIM BACK. AT THAT POINT, WE POLISHED IT UP A LITTLE BIT AND OVERHAULED IT AND. PUT SOME TIRES ON IT. SHE'S JOINED OUR COLLECTION WITH OUR HEAVY TRACTOR. WE PULLED THE THREE BOTTOM PLOW AND IT DID A PRETTY REMARKABLE JOB. AND WE DON'T HAVE THE HEAVIEST GROUND BUT IT DID A VERY GOOD JOB AND WE SPENT A LOT OF HOURS ON IT. THAT CROSSBAR AND THAT'S FOR A WHOLE MIRROR AGAIN FOR TRACTOR DRIVE AND WE GOT OUR GARMIN MOUNTED THERE AND I MOVED THE CONTROLS THE AMMETER AND THE SWITCH MOVED UP EASIER FOR ME TO REACH THAN IT WAS IT WAS DOWN WHERE IT WAS WHEN IT WAS BUILT. CLUTCHES AND A LOT OF SEALS RADIATOR WORK. WATER PUMP WORK ALL CLUTCH WORK AND TIRES JUST NORMAL. ROUTINE MAINTENANCE. YOU KNOW. AND IT'S FALLEN INTO TRUCKERS DRIVE DUTY. I DON'T LIKE RIDING IT PARTICULARLY BUT I STILL LIKE A TRACTOR WHO IS VERY VERY TOUGH EASY TO WORK ON. EASY TO HAUL JUST A NICE NICE TRACTOR.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THIS WEEK'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  ST STEPHEN'S CATHOLIC CHURCH IN INDIAN CREEK  MISSOURI. THAT'S JUST SOUTH OF MONROE CITY. THEY  TELL US THEIR CONGREGATION HOLDS THE SWINKEY  PICNIC, THE OLDEST PICNIC IN TEH STATE OF MISSOURI.  THE JUST HELD THIS YEAR'S EVENT, AS IT'S HELD IN  JUST EVERY YEAR, RAIN OR SHINE.    AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US. WE'RE TALKING THE SOLAR ECLIPSE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL COMING UP THIS WEEK THE TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENING ON MONDAY. AND MANY OF YOU WILL HAVE THE BEST SEAT IN THE HOUSE IN RURAL AMERICA. BUT THE QUESTION IS NOW MIKE WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THAT OUR VIEWERS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO SEE IT. WELL IF YOU HAPPEN TO LIVE IN THE WESTERN STATES YOU HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE 80 TO 100 PERCENT. THAT IS A TOUGH FORECAST STILL. YOU KNOW A DAY OR TWO AHEAD HERE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THOSE HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS SO 60 TO 80 PERCENT I WOULD PUT THE LOWEST CHANCE BUT I WOULDN'T GIVE UP ON THAT POSSIBILITY. ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEASTERN KANSAS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BUT THAT'S JUST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THERE. AND MIKE I KNEW I WAS IN HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY AND THEY TOLD ME HOTELS WERE SOLD OUT. YOU KNOW THEY HAVE PEOPLE COMING IN FROM INTERNATIONAL AREAS JUST TO SEE THIS ECLIPSE. I CAN'T IMAGINE SPENDING THE MONEY GETTING HERE AND NOT BEING ABLE TO. WOU=LDNT BE GOOD AT ALL OF THAT UNFORTUNATELY IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO SOME FOLKS. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND AND YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. AND TUNE IN NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE ON THE ROAD FROM THE ANNUAL FARM JOURNAL CROP TOUR SO WE'LL LOOK AT YIELDS AND DIFFERENT THINGS FROM THE FIELD WE'LL DO THAT NEXT WEEK ON THE SHOW. AND FOR ALL OF US AT US FROM REPORT THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. BE SURE TO TUNE IN NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

 

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