USFR Weekly Recap - August 26-27, 2017

August 26, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 26-27, 2017

HEADLINES
WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT I'M TYNE MORGAN  AND WE'RE ON THE ROAD FROM THE ANNUAL FARM JOURNAL CROP TOUR. AND  THIS WEEK, IT'S REALLY ALL ABOUT THOSE NUMBERS. AFTER USDA SHOCKED THE MARKET WITH THE THIRD HIGHEST CORN YIELD  EVER, SCOUTS GROUDN TRUTH TO SEE IF HTE CROP IS REALLY THAT GOOD... WE SIT DOWN WITH PROFARMER TO DIGEST WHAT THEY SAW, AND SEE WHAT IT  COULD MEAN FOR CROP PRICES IN TEH WEEKS AHEAD.  ROUND 1 OF NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS WRAP UP, BUT  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD..

CROP TOUR NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK...PROGRAMER IS FORECASTING A CORN CROP OF 13.95 BILLION BUSHELS BASED ON AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 167.1 BUSHELS AN ACRE. DOWN FROM THE 169.5 USDA PEGGED IN THE AUGUST REPORT THE SOYBEAN CROP COMES IN AT 4.3 BILLION BUSHES WITH AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 48.5 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW  WITH WEATHER. MIKE, SPOTTY RAINS THIS WEEK, BUT MANY FARMERS ARE  SAYING THEY COULD USE MORE AS IT'S ALMOST TOO LATE.  THANKS TYNE. WELL BASICALLY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE FEAST OR FAMINE THIS WEEK THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HARVEY WILL BRING A LOT OF RAIN TO PLACES ELSEWHERE. IT'S KIND OF SCATTERED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. DROUGHT MONITORING SEE THE WORST VERY CONTINUES TO BE EASTERN MONTANA. IT'S IMPROVED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THERE'S STILL SOME PRETTY PRETTY HEAVY DROUGHTS THERE. AND THERE'S A STRIP OF DRYNESS ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AS WELL. BUT MOST OF THE REST OF THE LOWER 48 THIS IS. THIS IS VERY LITTLE DROUGHT COMPARED TO NORMAL CHANGE OVER THE PAST MONTH. YOU CAN SEE IT WAS A LITTLE BIT WORSE ACROSS OF THE KOTAS AND THINGS HAVE SHRUNK UP A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THAT AREA BUT IT'S JUST KIND OF LINGERED THERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL RIGHT LET'S GO DAY BY DAY THIS WEEK WE CAN SEE THE REMNANTS OF HARBI STILL SITTING ALONG THE SHORELINE OF TEXAS. THAT MEANS JUST HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN SINCE IT'S SITTING IN THAT SAME AREA AND STARTING TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTH WILL CAUSE SCOUTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT'S STILL THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY STILL MOVING INTO LOUISIANA PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN. A LITTLE COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALSO OUT WEST AND D.C. BY FRIDAY THEN THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PROBABLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND MAYBE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. WE'LL CHECK OUT THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT ON THE ROAD FROM THE CROP TOUR THIS WEEK WE HAVE THE LEAD SCOUTS WE HAVE BRIAN GRADY WHO IS ON THE EAST WE HAVE CHIP FLORY WHO IS ON THE WEST. BRIAN LET'S START WITH YOU. I MEAN WHEN WE SAW THESE INITIAL NUMBERS COME IN FROM BOTH SOUTH DAKOTA AND OHIO THAT FIRST DAY I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT WELL THESE THESE NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT BIGGER THAN WHAT WE EXPECTED. WELL YOUR EAR COUNTS WEREN'T OUT THERE THEY WERE DOWN BUT THE GRAIN LENGTH WAS THERE. BUT KEEP IN MIND VERY MATURE CROP. SO IT HASN'T LOST THAT GREEN LINE YET SO KNOW THE NUMBERS WE GET MIGHT BACK OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT MAYBE BACK OFF MORE THAN A LITTLE BIT DEPENDING ON WHAT THE LATE SEASON WEATHER IS BECAUSE WE STILL NEED SOME TIME OUT THERE. YEAH. IN SOUTH DAKOTA DON'T FORGET WE WERE. IF THERE'S ANY SPOT IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT YOU COULD CALL GOOD. IT'S THE TOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE TOUR AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS THEY'VE HARVESTED 150 BUSHEL CORN THIS YEAR IS GOING TO BE 60 70 75 BUSHEL PER ACRE. BUT DOWN THERE IN THE SOUTH EAST CORNER OF THE STATE IT WAS DOWN LIKE A ONE 1.2 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. BUT AS GOOD AS IT WAS DOWN THERE IT WAS STILL DOWN FOR MERE GO. WE CAN'T FORGET THAT. YEAH A LOT OF VARIABILITY THAT YOU SAW IN OHIO AS YOU MADE YOUR WAY TO INDIANA. WE KNOW THEY HAD A ROUGH START THIS YEAR. DID THAT VARIABILITY CONTINUE. IT DID. AND YOU KNOW JUST ALL KINDS OF REAL PLANTS THAT WE SAW GETTING INTO FIELDS. SO NOT ONLY VARIABILITY WITHIN YIELDS THAT WE POLLED YOU KNOW A GOOD SAMPLE HERE A VERY POOR SAMPLE THERE BUT VARIABILITY WITHIN CROP MATURITY WITHIN INDIVIDUAL FIELDS AND THE THEY'VE HAD STRUGGLES ALL THE WAY THROUGH AND THEY'VE GOT MORE STRUGGLES COMING AS THEY HEAD INTO HARVEST. NEBRASKA WORKS BETTER THAN YOU EXPECTED CHIP. HE'S IN A YOUR WAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN I EXPECTED AND I THINK PART OF IT WAS THE MEMORY OF LAST YEAR AND ALL OF THE STORM DAMAGE THAT WE SAW IN NEBRASKA LAST YEAR THAT STORM DAMAGE WASN'T THERE THIS YEAR LAST YEAR GREEN SNAP ALL OVER THE EASTERN NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. IT JUST WASN'T THERE THIS YEAR. THERE WAS SOME DAMAGE BUT I THINK THAT CROP. I WAS SURPRISED THAT WE CAME IN ABOVE A YEAR AGO. BUT IT'S THERE. I FEEL LIKE IT'S THEIR DRY LAND CORN IS OFF BUT THE IRRIGATED CORN IS GOOD. WELL YOU LEFT NEBRASKA YOU HEADED INTO THAT WESTERN AREA THAT WE KNOW SUFFERED FROM DRYNESS THIS YEAR POD COUNTS DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS IN SOME CASES IN SOME OF THOSE REPORTING DISTRICTS. DID THAT SURPRISE YOU A LITTLE BIT. WERE YOU KIND OF EXPECTING BOY THE STRESS MUST HAVE COME AT JUST THE WRONG TIME FOR THAT BEING CRAP OVER THERE IT HAD TO BE HEAT DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING RIGHT AS THAT CROP WAS FLOWERING AND IT JUST PREVENTED IT FROM PUTTING ON THE FLOP ON THE BODY. BUT I KNOW I WAS WITH YOU ON THE EASTERN AND EASTERN IOWA AND THE POD COUNTS WEREN'T ANYTHING TO BRAG ABOUT AND SOME OF THOSE FIELDS EITHER. NO THEY WEREN'T. REALLY WHEN YOU LOOK ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CORN BELT INTO EASTERN IOWA WHERE WE WERE AT WE JUST DIDN'T GET ANY MONSTER POD COUNTS. WE HAD SOME POOR ONES WON AND POOR ONES WE HAD SOME AVERAGE ONES. WE HAD SOME GOOD ONES BUT WE DIDN'T HAVE ANYTHING THAT JUST BLEW THE ROOF OFF. BUT ILLINOIS ALSO CORN VERSUS VERSUS BEANS. WERE YOU DISAPPOINTED IN EITHER OF THOSE CROPS THAT ILLINOIS ILLINOIS. YOU KNOW WE GOT INTO THE EASTERN SIDE YOU DO YOU GO INTO CROP DISTRICT FOUR AND FIVE THERE. SO EAST CENTRAL AND THEN CENTRAL THAT'S GOOD OR BAD OR YOU EXPECT TO POLL 200 BUSHEL CORN SAMPLES OUT OF THERE AND WE JUST DIDN'T HAVE THEM. THERE WERE A FEW BUT NOT LIKE NORMAL AS WE WENT FROM CENTRAL TO WESTERN YOU KNOW STUFF IMPROVE YIELDS IMPROVED THEY BECAME MORE CONSISTENT. PLANT HEALTH WAS MUCH BETTER BUT YET IT STILL WASN'T PROBABLY UP TO PAR FOR WHAT MOST OF THOSE GUYS WOULD EXPECT. WELL WE KNOW THE IOWA HAD SOME CHALLENGES THIS YEAR BUT MINNESOTA HASN'T HAD AS MANY OF THOSE CHALLENGES DURING THE GROWING SEASON. AND SO DID YOU START TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY WHEN YOU MOVED INTO MINNESOTA. I THINK WE MOVED ILLINOIS 200 BUSHEL CORN FIELDS TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. I REALLY BELIEVE THAT THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR. WE SAW A GOOD NUMBER OF 200 BUSHEL PLUS CORN FIELDS IN MINNESOTA BUT THE LOWLAND WE DIDN'T GET A LOT OF THOUGH ONE TENDS ONE TAIWANESE ARE LOWLANDS WERE MORE ONE 30S 40S. YEAH. SO I THINK THE BOTTOM END IS FLOATING UP THAT MINNESOTA CROP RATHER THAN THE TOP AND PULL ON IT.  AND I'VE HEARD YOU SAY THE SAME THING. YEAH WE DIDN'T HAVE A LOT OF REALLY LOW NUMBERS I MEAN THERE ARE A FEW OUT THERE. IT DIDN'T MATTER WHAT STATE WE WERE IN THERE WERE A FEW BUT NOT A LOT OF THOSE. RIGHT.  SO KIND OF WHAT I'M HEARING IS MAYBE IT'S NOT THIS RECORD CROP I MEAN BUT WE KNEW THAT BUT IT'S STILL A PRETTY DARNED GOOD CROP OUT THERE. IT'S GOOD IT'S NOT GREAT. I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE FROM WHAT I SAW YOU AGREE. YEAH. AND IT'S NOT PRETTY. IT'S NOT A CROP. RIGHT. IT IS. IT IS RATHER UGLY IN SOME CASES BUT WHEN YOU GET PAST THE END ROWS AND DOWN THE MAIN ROAD AND PULL BACK THE HUSKS THERE'S CORN. ALL RIGHT. SO SO WE KNOW THIS IS IT MAY NOT BE A GREAT CROP BUT IT'S STILL A PRETTY GOOD CROP. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PRICES MOVING FORWARD. LET'S TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK. ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT ON THE STAGE JOINING US. WE HAVE PETE MEYER OF S&P GLOBAL WE ALSO HAVE TED SIEFRED OF ZANER AF HEDGE YOU KNOW LOOKING AT THIS CROP ARE LOOKING AT THIS CROP WE THOUGHT THAT THIS CROP WAS GOOD NOT GREAT CORN YIELD THOUGH ONE SIXTY NINE POINT FIVE THAT USDA HAS. YOU THINK MAYBE WE'RE NOT THAT FAR FAR OFF. I THINK WE'RE A COUPLE OF BUSHELS OFF. BUT I MEAN EVEN IF WE WERE THREE OR FOUR BUSHELS OFF I DON'T THINK THERE IS YOU KNOW AS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER I DON'T THINK THERE'S A STORY IN CORN. WHY DON'T WE JUST HAVE TOO MUCH CORN. SO EVEN IF YOU SHAVE THREE OR FOUR BUSHELS OFF THIS CORN CROP YOU DO NOT THINK THAT IT MATTERS TO THE MARKET IF YOU SHAVE TO SAVE FOUR BUSHELS OFF THE CORN CROP LET'S SAY WE DROP 360 MILLION BUSH OF PRODUCTION. YOU'RE GOING TO LOSE 180 MILLION BUSHELS. BUT MAN. SO ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU'RE STILL GOING TO BE AROUND. IT'S GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GET TO. THEY SHOWED US THAT IN THE AUGUST 31ST. THEY SAY IF THEY HAVE EVER PROVED IT TO US THEY PROVED THAT IN AUGUST THEY REDUCE PRODUCTION BY 100 AND REDUCE DEMAND BY 50 AND I THINK THIS YEAR THEY HAVE THE ENERGY TO DO SO GIVEN THE FACT WE'VE GOT 65 MILLION METRIC TONS COMING OUT OF BRAZIL SECOND CROP AND ARGENTINA IS GOING TO PLANT ANOTHER 5 PERCENT OF CORN ACREAGE DUE TO BUT WE'RE ALREADY DOWN 375 MILLION BUSHELS AND EXPORTS YEAR OVER YEAR. I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH ROOM THERE IS TO GO LOWER THAN THAT. PROBABLY ANOTHER 100 MAYBE 150 AT THE MOST. SO IF YOU DROP IF YOU DO DROP FOUR OR FIVE BUSHELS OFF THIS CROP YOU'RE STILL TAKING 40 MILLION BUSHELS OFF OFF BALANCE SHEET. THAT'S NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO GIVE US A ROCKET HIGHER. BUT YOU KNOW WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF PRESSURE RIGHT NOW BECAUSE GUYS HAVE BEEN ROLLING OLD CROP ROLLING ROLLING ROLLING AND THEN YOU'VE GOT THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACT COMING DUE. WE PASSED A WHOLE BUNCH OF PLACES WHERE WE'VE PASSED AN AUTO PLANT IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA THAT HAD 67 TRUCKS LINED UP THAT GREEN IS MOVING RIGHT NOW THAT'S WHAT'S GIVING US THE PRESSURE RIGHT NOW. THAT'S WHY A LOT OF TIMES WE'LL PUT OUR LOWS IN AT THE END OF AUGUST EARLY SEPTEMBER. SEASONALLY I THINK YOU CAN EXPECT THAT LITTLE BIT OF A BOUNCE BECAUSE I THINK THE WORST BALANCE SHEET MIGHT BE BEHIND US AT THIS POINT. BUT I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN SEE YOU KNOW 450 CORN SOMETHING LIKE THAT MAYBE WITH THE HELP FROM SOYBEANS. THAT'S MIGHT BE THE ONLY HOPE. CHIP YOU AGREE WITH THAT. YEAH. WELL I THINK THEY'RE BOTH MAKING REALLY GOOD POINTS BUT AT THE BEGINNING STOCKS FOR THE 17 18 MARKETING YEARS JUST A WEIGHT ON TOP OF THE MARKET. IT'S YOU CAN LOSE THOSE 360 MILLION BUSHELS OF THE CROP OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. BUT WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE PLENTY OF CORN OUT THERE. BUT TED'S POINT US IS ALREADY KIND OF GOT A I DON'T I'M NOT GOING TO CALL IT A BARE BONES DEMAND PICTURE BUILT IN FOR 17 18 BUT BOY IT'S THERE'S ROOM TO GROW THAT BASED ON THE PRICE THAT WE'VE GOT OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. BUT THEN WE SEE THIS NEWS THIS WEEK THAT THEY'RE GOING TO POSSIBLY IMPOSE A TARIFF ON ETHANOL IMPORTS HEADING INTO BRAZIL AND WE SEE SOME OF THESE SPARE SHOES IT JUST DOESN'T SEEM LIKE WE'RE GETTING A LOT OF THIS BULLISH DEMAND NEWS IN CORN RIGHT NOW. WELL BRAZIL BRAZIL US I MEAN THOSE ARE SHIPS PASSING IN NIGHTFALL YET FULL OF ETHANOL SO IF YOU DON'T THINK THAT THE U.S. IS GOING TO RETALIATE AT THIS POINT I MEAN IT JUST BLUSTER YOU KNOW I MEAN THE MORE IMPORTANT THING TO ME WAS THE FACT THAT WE'VE WE'VE TAKEN A STANCE ON ARGENTINIAN BIO-DIESEL DUMPING AS WELL. YOU KNOW INDONESIA I DON'T REALLY CARE ABOUT. BUT I MEAN THE MARKET WAS LOOKING FOR A 40 PERCENT TARIFF. NOW YOU'RE LOOKING AT 60 PERCENT TARIFF EVEN THOUGH I'M A FIRM BELIEVER THAT BEING JUST WORTH 35 CENTS MORE BECAUSE IT'S HISTORICALLY JUST STAYS AT 35 CENTS A GALLON. YEAH. YOU KNOW TO ADD TO THE TARIFF WITH THE ETHANOL I MEAN LIKE I SAID YOU SEE THE SHIPS PASSING IN THE NIGHT BETWEEN US US ETHANOL GOING TO BRAZIL AND BRAZILIAN ETHANOL COMING TO US YOU KNOW TALKING ABOUT DEMAND. REAL QUICK IN SPENCER I TOLD THE CROWD THERE. IF WE COULD FIND 500 MILLION BUSHELS OF ADDITIONAL CORN DEMAND THAT'S AROUND YEAR TO YEAR AROUND YEAR TO YEAR IF WE COULD FIND IT IF WE COULD FIND ANOTHER 150 MILLION BUSHELS OF BEAN DEMAND. THAT'S CONSISTENT YEAR TO YEAR. EVERYBODY'S LIFE IN THIS ROOM CHANGES. NOW HOW ARE WE GOING TO DO THAT. LET'S GET E-15 ROLLING BACK AT IT. YOU KNOW WE CAN TALK ABOUT ALL THE DEMAND NUMBERS AND WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT BUT WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF OLD CRAP SITTING IN STORAGE THAT'S GOING TO CHOKE OFF A RALLY THAT WHEN WE START TO RALLY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE 17 CROPS SOLD AS WELL THAT WILL CHOKE OFF THE RALLY THE FARMER SELLING IS GOING TO CHOKE OFF RALLIES IN MY PRIME. WE DON'T SELL RALLIES WE SELL BRAKES. YOU SEE YOU SEE WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THAT'S IT. FEAR IS A MUCH BIGGER MOTIVATOR THAN GREED AND THAT'S WHERE I AM. I AGREE TO SOME EXTENT BUT I STILL THINK THAT IF WE RALLY THE MARKET ANY TIME HERE FROM NOW ON UNTIL HARVEST OR THROUGH HARVEST THERE IS STILL GOING TO BE FARMERS SELLING AND IT WILL REALLY CAP THE UPSIDE THAT BLANK. I'M GOING TO STOP YOU THERE BECAUSE WE'RE BURYING THE LEAD HERE BECAUSE IT SOUNDS LIKE THERE'S A BIGGER STORY IN SOYBEANS RIGHT. WE SEE THESE POD COUNTS DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES. IT SEEMS LIKE IF WE SHAVE A COUPLE OF BUSHELS OFF THIS SWEEPING CROP BRYANT THAT POSSIBLY WE COULD HAVE A MORE BULLISH STORY IN SOYBEANS. WELL WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CARRY OVER HERE IT ARGUES THAT YOU CAN'T WAIT YET WHEN WE LOOK AT THE PRICES AND HOW THEY'VE RESPONDED EVEN WITH HIGH CARRYOVERS. I THINK THAT YOU CAN AND THAT'S THE IMPORTANT THING. THE FUNDS STILL LIKE TO BE LONG SOYBEANS WHEN THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO. IF WE HAVE A 350 MILLION BUSHEL CARRY OVER AND SOYBEANS IN OCTOBER MARK IT'S GOING TO GET VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THAT JUST BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN OCTOBER AND SEPTEMBER OF THE NEXT YEAR 300 MILLION BUSHELS WE'VE SAID TIME AND TIME OVER TIME IS NOT A COMFORTABLE CARRY ON PERSUADING YOU AGREE DISAGREE BRIAN. WELL I SEE YOU IN OCTOBER YEAH. I STILL THINK THE FUNDS WANT TO BE LONG SOYBEANS AND IF THEY'RE GIVEN ANY KIND OF REASON THEY'LL DO IT. ALL RIGHT. REAL QUICK BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME. WE TALKED ABOUT THIS MATURITY OF THE CROP THE POSSIBILITY OF A OF AN EARLY FROST OR NORMAL FROST IF THIS HAPPENS. WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS TO PRICES. PRICES SHOOT HIGHER BUT WE SHOULD ADD HIGHER FARMERS SELL AND CAPS THE RALLY. SO YOU'RE THINKING IT'S GOING TO BE A SHORT RALLY BUT A FAST RALLY. YEAH. YOU AGREE. YEAH. YES. SHORT ANSWER YES. YOU SEEM HESITANT SO WHAT IS YOUR HESITATION OF A MAN OF MANY WORDS EVERYBODY. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO GET A KNEE JERK REACTION FROM THE MARKET TODAY. IT MAY NOT EVEN LAST AS LONG AS BRIAN'S QUIT BRALEY. ALL RIGHT. SO YOU KNOW LEFT OUT AND WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK BUT WE'RE GOING TO GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK ON US FARMER FOR.

MARKETS NOW
ALRIGHT COVERED A LOT IN THAT LAST ROUNDTABLE BUT WE NEED TO GET CLOSING THOUGHTS. TED WE'LL START WITH YOU. OK SO WHAT I'VE SEEN ON THIS CROP OR THIS IS A GOOD CORN CROP IT'S PROBABLY THE FIFTH OR SIXTH BEST CORN CROP WE'VE EVER SEEN. IT'S NOT THE SECOND OR THIRD BEST CORN CROP WE'VE EVER SEEN. SO I THINK THE BALANCE SHEET GETS SMALLER FROM HERE ON OUT. I THINK THERE IS UPSIDE POTENTIAL IN A NORMAL SEASONAL RALLY IF WE GET SOME STORE AND BEANS EARLY FROST SEPTEMBER 10TH FULL MOON. ANYTHING LIKE THAT BEANS CAN REALLY BRING EVERYTHING HIGHER AND THEN GUYS WILL FALL BACK ON SALES. OK BRIAN GRETE I AGREE. GOOD NOT GREAT ON THE CROP SIZE. 325 PROBABLY ON THE BOTTOM SIDE MAYBE FOUR TWENTY FIVE ON THE OUTSIDE MAYBE COULD SPIKE ANY OF THOSE LEVELS AND WON'T STAY ABOVE IT OR BELOW IT FOR VERY LONG. ALL RIGHT CHIP. I'M GOING TO GO OFF MENU HERE AND SAY WE PULLED OVER FIFTEEN HUNDRED AND FORTY CORN SAMPLES WE PULLED OVER FIFTEEN HUNDRED SOYBEAN SAMPLES. AND HATS OFF TO ALL THE SCOUTS OUT THERE. GREAT JOB. ALL RIGHT PETE. I DON'T THINK THERE'S A STORY IN CORN AT ALL. I THINK THERE'S A GOOD STORY IN BEANS. I LIKED IT. I LIKED THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE STORY. I'D LIKE TO SEE THE U.S. FARM AND PLANT MORE BEANS NEXT YEAR. I THINK THE BANKERS CAN CONTROL A LITTLE. WE'LL CONTROL THAT IN THE COMING YEAR. AND I REALLY I REALLY THINK WITH U.S. FARM IT NEEDS TO DO IS STOP WORRYING ABOUT ABOUT OVERPRODUCING HIS NEIGHBOR AND START PAYING ATTENTION TO YOUR BALANCE SHEET. ALL RIGHT GOOD ADVICE. WE NEED TO TAKE A SHORT BREAK BUT WE'LL HAVE JOHN PHELPSJOIN US NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
I'VE STILL HEARD A LOT OF BUZZ THIS WEEK ABOUT USDA'S LATEST CROP  PRODUCTION REPORT, WITH MANY DISPUTING USDA'S FINDINGS. DISAGREE OR  AGREE, IT'S HOW ONE REACTS THAT'S THE TOPIC OF THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S  WORLD.  ENOUGH TIME HAS ELAPSED, PERHAPS TO GET BACK IN THE WATER AROUND THE AUGUST CROP REPORT. IN FACT, MOST OF AG IS ALREADY BITTERLY DISPUTING THEN UPCOMING SEPTEMBER REPORT. I HAVE LEFT TO OTHERS THE REPETITIVE TASKS OF DEFENDING OR ATTACKING NASS, WASDE, THE USDA, AND GOVERNMENT IN GENERAL. MOSTLY BECAUSE I HAVE LEARNED SUCH FEVERED DISCUSSIONS CHANGE FEW MINDS. IN FACT, IT IS THOSE MINDS I WANT TO TALK ABOUT. WHILE ON OUR FARM WE HAVE HAD ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SIX WEEKS, THERE ARE MANY FARMERS EVEN DRIER. IN A HELPFUL BOOK ENTITLED, SCARCITY: WHY HAVING TOO LITTLE MEANS SO MUCH, TWO ECONOMISTS ILLUMINATE WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR BRAIN WHEN IT DECIDES WE'RE RUNNING SHORT ON FOOD, TIME, HUMAN CONTACT OR ANY OF THE THINGS WE FEEL ARE CRITICAL TO OUR LIVES. THEIR RESEARCH, DONE WITH SUBSISTENCE SUGAR CANE GROWERS HIGHLIGHTED SOME ASTONISHING EFFECTS OF SCARCITY. I THINK IS IT IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW BECAUSE AS WE DO YIELD CHECKS AND INCOME PROJECTIONS, MANY OF US HAVE TRIGGERED THAT SCARCITY MODE IN OUR BRAINS AS WELL. ONE STUNNING DISCOVERY IS HOW OUR BRAIN BEGINS TO EXCLUDE INFORMATION AND DEVELOP TUNNEL VISION CENTERED ON WHAT WE LACK. THIS IS HARD-WIRED INTO OUR SPECIES PRIMARILY TO COUNTERACT HUNGER, BUT THE RESPONSES CAN HAPPEN FOR PERCEIVED POVERTY. IN THE PROCESS, WE CAN LOWER OUR IQ AS MUCH AS 13 POINTS - WHICH IS A LOT. LOOKING BACK ON THE RANTING ABOUT THE CROP REPORTS, MUCH OF THE RANCOR COULD BE EXPLAINED BY OTHERWISE CAPABLE MINDS RUNNING AT LESS THAN FULL CAPACITY. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS WILL IMPACT THE DECISIONS WE MAKE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT IS UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS THAT HAVING FRIENDS AND FAMILY OUTSIDE THE SCARCITY ZONE CAN BE INVALUABLE. EXPLAIN YOUR THINKING TO THEM AND SEE IF THEY CAN SPOT FLAWS IN YOUR PLANNING. EVEN IF THEY DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT AGRICULTURE THEY KNOW ABOUT YOUR CAPABILITIES AND CAN HELP YOU AVOID UNREASONABLE CHOICES. WE CAN'T CHANGE HOW OUR BRAINS INSTINCTIVELY REACT TO SCARCITY, BUT WE CAN TAP INTO CLEARER THINKING BY WORKING TO MAINTAIN OUR FRIENDSHIPS. 

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, U-S FARM REPORT IS ON THE ROAD AGAIN. WE'LL  NOT ONLY WRAP UP ALL THIS CROP TOUR TALK, WITH BOOTS ON THE GROUND  GIVING A GLIMPSE TO WHAT SCOUTS SAW ALL WEEK. BUT WE'LL ALSO HEAD  SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO SEE WHAT'S AT STAKE DURING NAFTA NEGOTIATONS.  WE'LL HAVE ALL THAT AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPEICAL EDITION OF U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD AS WE REPORT FROM THE FIELD.  FROM LAND TO SEA, MOODS ON EDGE OVER NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS AFTER PRESIDENT THREATNES TO NIX NEGOTIATIONS.  CROP CONDITOIINS ON CROP TOUR ARE VARIABLE... WE HAVE A LOOK FROM THE  FIELD.  AND DRYNESS AND DROUGHT-- A VIEWER IS CRITICAL OF OUR ANALYSIS OF  DROUGHT ON THE SHOW. JOHN ANSWERS IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT

TRUMP AND NAFTA
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES,  JUST A WEEK AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF RE-NEGOTIATIONS OVER NAFTA  CONCLUDED, THE PRESIDENT THREATENING TO NIX NAFTA, SAYING HE ISN'T SURE A NEW DEAL CAN BE STRUCK. WHILE SPEAKING TO AN ASSEMBLY OF HIS SUPPORTERS IN PHOENIX, PRESIDENT  TRUMP SAID CANADA AND MEXICO BOTH GOT BETTER DEALS THAN THE U-S IN  THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT. WHILE THE PRESIDENT CAUTIONS THAT HE HASN'T MADE-UP HIS MIND, HE  WARNED THAT THE U-S MAY JUST DITCH THE DEAL. " I THINK WE WILL END UP PROBABLY TERMINATING NAFTA AT SOME POINT, OK, PROBABLY. (AUDIENCE  CHEERING) BUT - BUT, I TOLD YOU FROM THE FIRST DAY, WE WILL RENEGOTIATE NAFTA OR WE WILL  TERMINATE NAFTA. I PERSONALLY DON'T THINK YOU CAN MAKE A DEAL WITHOUT A TERMINATION, BUT  YOU'RE GOING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS, OK?   THE FIRST ROUND OF TALKS ENDED LAST WEEKEND. THE NEXT ROUND WILL BE  HELD NEXT MONTH IN CANADA. THE BIG STICKING POINT APPEARS TO BE OVER A SECTION OF THE AGREEMENT  THAT PERTAINS TO TRADE DISPUTE SETTLEMENTS.

EU INVESTIGATING BAYER
EUROPE EXPRESSING CONCERN OVER A MONOPOLY IN THE PESTICIDE AND  SEEDS MARKET.. THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION LAUNCHING INTO AN IN-DPETH INVESTIGATION INTO  BAYER'S 66 BILLION DOLLAR TAKEOVER BID FOR MONSANTO.  IF THE DEAL GOES THROUGH, THE COMMISSION SAYS IT WOULD CREATE THE  WORLD'S LARGEST INTEGRATED PESTICIDES AND SEEDS COMPANY.  IN RESPONSE, BAYER SAYS CONSIDERING THE SCOPE OF THE MERGER, A MORE  THOUROUGH INVESTIGATION WAS EXPECTED.  AND MONSANTO ISSUING A STATMEENT, SAYING THE COMPANIES REMAIN  COMMITTED TO WORKING WITH REGULATORS TO RECEIVE APPROVAL BY TEH  END OF THE YEAR.  

IMPERFECT GROWING SEASON
THE CROP SCOUT WERE CHECKING TO SEE HOW WEATHER HAS IMPACTED  CROPS.  USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY DESCRIBES IT AS AN "IMPERFECT GROWING  SEASON" IN THE MIDWEST, MOSTLY DUE TO ERRATIC RAINFALL.  BUT COOLER  TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO PLAYED A ROLE. "IF YOU LOOK AT THE CORN BELT AS A WHOLE WE HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAT  STRESS. ONCE YOU MOVE OUTSIDE OF THOSE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CORN BELT AREAS. SO  AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SUMMER I MEAN CERTAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST HAS  BEEN INCREDIBLY COOL WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME FOUR TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE  DURING THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST. AND EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE WARMING UP A LITTLE BIT  AND SEE MORE CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. I DON'T THINK  WE'LL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRESS ON FILLING CORN AND SOYBEANS." AS A BENCHMARK FOR THE NORTHERN CORNBELT, RIPPEY POINTS TO CHICAGO  WHICH HAD ONLY EIGHT DAYS OF 90-DEGREE HEAT THIS GROWING SEASON. AND  JUST ONE DAY HITTING 95 DEGREES THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN HEARING TYNE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. WE HAVE TO CHANGE THIS PATTERN AND MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE FALL. BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH IN THIS IN THE EAST AS KEEPING IT COOL IN THE EAST AND HOT OUT WEST THERE IS WEDNESDAY YOU CAN SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE RIBS DOES GET SHOVED BACK A LITTLE FARTHER AS MORE ENERGY STARTS TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROUGH AS YOU CAN SEE THAT BECAUSE SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR TO COME INTO OR NOT TALKING FOR FREEZE YET. SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT THAT WILL CHANGE THAT PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH TIME. SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST MID-ATLANTIC NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT LEAST PARTS OF THEM KIND OF THE SAME IDEA FOR OCTOBER. YOU CAN SEE THAT THEY'RE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST AND HEADING THROUGH NOVEMBER. WE'RE GETTING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE CORN BELT BUT BELOW NORMAL EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL ON THE COAST AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS I AM GONE ABOVE NORMAL FROM TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EAST BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. TIME.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN  HAS A LOOK AT THE 30  AND 90 DAY THIS WEEK. MIKE, THE MATURITY OF THE CROP OUT HERE IS REALLY  FAR BEHIDN IN SOME CASES... WE NEED SOME HEAT TO FINISH OUT THIS YEAR'S  CROP.THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN HEARING TYNE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. WE HAVE TO CHANGE THIS PATTERN AND MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE FALL. BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH IN THIS IN THE EAST AS KEEPING IT COOL IN THE EAST AND HOT OUT WEST THERE IS WEDNESDAY YOU CAN SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE RIBS DOES GET SHOVED BACK A LITTLE FARTHER AS MORE ENERGY STARTS TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROUGH AS YOU CAN SEE THAT BECAUSE SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR TO COME INTO OR NOT TALKING FOR FREEZE YET. SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT THAT WILL CHANGE THAT PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH TIME. SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST MID-ATLANTIC NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT LEAST PARTS OF THEM KIND OF THE SAME IDEA FOR OCTOBER. YOU CAN SEE THAT THEY'RE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST AND HEADING THROUGH NOVEMBER. WE'RE GETTING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE CORN BELT BUT BELOW NORMAL EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL ON THE COAST AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS I AM GONE ABOVE NORMAL FROM TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EAST BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. TIME.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WE REPORTED EARLIER IN TEH SHOW THAT THE PRESIDENT THREATENED TO PULL OT OF NAFTA. BUT ROUND 1 OF NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS ARE IN THE BOOKS, AND OFFICIALS FROM ALL  THREE COUNTRIES SAY THE GOAL REMAINS THE SAME... ENSURING  NEGOTIATIONS REMAIN ON A RAPID PACE TO TRY TO WRAP THINGS UP BEFORE  MEXICO'S NATIONAL ELECTION.   MEXICO IS A DEFICIT AG PRODUCER FOR THINGS LIKE CORN. AND SO IT NEEDS TO  IMPORT THESE RAW MATERIALS. AND WHILE PROXIMITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE  HAS MADE THE US A LOGICAL TRADING PARTNER -- BUYERS HERE ARE NOW  LOOKING TO THE SEA.  AS THE FEED GOES OUT....THE TRAINS ROLL IN--TO GROUPOGRAMOSA--A COMMERCIAL ELEVATOR AND FEED MILL IN QUERETARO MEXICO.JORGE CASTILLO\OPERATIONS MANAGER"WE RECEIVE TRAINS FULL OF GRAIN MOSTLY CORN YELLOW CORN WHERE WE SEE ABOUT FIVE OR SIX TRAINS A MONTH."EACH 110 CARS LONG WEIGHED DOWN WITH ROUGHLY 60-THOUSAND TONS OF U.S. GRAIN. EDMUNDO MIRANDA\COMMERCIAL GROUPO FOR GRAMOSA WE HAVE RAIL HERE AND WE HAVE A DIRECT LINE BETWEEN THE HEARTLAND AND THE CORN BELT IN THE U.S. IN THE MIDWEST. NEARLY 80 MILLION BUSHELS OF GRAIN MOVES THROUGH THEIR FACILITIES EACH YEAR IN ROUTE TO LIVESTOCK AND FOOD COMPANIES - DRIVEN ON THE BACK OF NAFTA. EDMUNDO MIRANDA\ COMMERCIAL GROUPO FOR GRAMOSA I THINK IT WAS PRETTY GOOD SO FAR. I ACTUALLY VIEW IN MY OPINION I DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY WANT TO RENEGOTIATE. U.S. IS BUILDING THAT WE ARE GETTING ALL THE ADVANTAGE AND I DON'T THINK SO BECAUSE NOW YOU ARE ABLE TO EXPORT SOMETHING THAT YOU DO YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO EXPORT ON THAT QUANTITIES BEFORE NAFTA NO. ARTURO GARCIA\ COMMERCIAL MANAGER AT GRAMOSA AT THE BEGINNING WHEN WE STARTED TO OCCUR IT COULD BE RENEGOTIATED. WE FELT OFFENDED BECAUSE WE ARE PARTNERS THIS MANY YEARS BEFORE AND NOW WHY DO THINGS NEEDS TO BE CHANGED. BUT WE'VE BEEN PUSHED TO LOOK FOR NEW ORIGIN TO IMPORT IMPORT GRAINS. SO NOW WE ARE THANKFUL.ANDREW SWANN\DIR. OF CHARTERING, GROUPOLOGRA THIS YEAR WE'VE SEEN MORE INTEREST FROM BRAZIL. WELCOME TO THE PORT OF PROGRESO--ONE OF THE MANY MEXICAN PORTS SEEING FRESH INVESTMENT IN RECENT YEARS.ANDREW SWANN\DIR. OF CHARTERING, GROUPOLOGRA: WE SEE THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO MAKING A CONTINUOUS INVESTMENT TO EXPAND THE SCOPE AND SIZE OF THEIR PORTS. WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TRANSPORTATION COSTS. JOSE MANUEL\AMEPA  DIRECTOR: IS IT POSSIBLE TO REPLACE THE UNITED STATES WITH GRAIN FROM ELSEWHERE. IT WOULD BE A COMPLICATED THING TO DO GIVEN THE HIGH VOLUME THAT'S IMPORTED FROM THE UNITED STATES. BUT WE ARE IN CONTACT WITH THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT WE'RE IN DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ALTERNATIVES FOR IMPORTING ESPECIALLY CORN AND SOYBEAN. ANDREW SWANN\DIR. OF CHARTERING, GROUPOLOGRA: CURRENTLY IN VERA CRUZ THEY ARE DOUBLING THE CAPACITY OF THEIR AGRICULTURAL RECEIVING ABILITY. AND DOING THAT WORK.. GROUPO GRAMOSA. EDMUNDO MIRANDA\COMMERCIAL GROUP FOR GRAMOSA: SO NOW WE HAVE A FACILITY THAT WE ARE BUILDING THERE AND WE WILL BE READY BY THE END OF 2018. ARTURO GARCIA\ COMMERCIAL MANAGER AT GRAMOSA: AND I THINK DON'T GET ME WRONG I'M EXPECTING NOT TO BE RUDE BUT AMERICAN FARMERS MAYBE ARE MORE NERVOUS THAN US BECAUSE THAT VOLUME WILL BE REPLACED FROM OTHER REGIONS. NOT AT ALL BECAUSE WE WILL NEED TO KEEP IMPORTING FROM THE UNITED STATES BUT A LOT OF VOLUME WILL CHANGE. A TREND THAT MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...EVEN AS NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS BEGIN. ARTURO BASULTO\INTER INDUSTRIAS DEL SURESTE WE REALIZE THAT WE DEPEND ON GRAIN FROM THE UNITED STATES BUT WE HAVE TO START LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING FROM SOUTH AMERICA IN CASE THE AGREEMENT FALLS APART. IN THE END WE HOPE THAT COMMON SENSE WILL PREVAIL AND THAT OUR TRADE RELATIONS WILL GO ON FOR A VERY LONG TIME. THE SCHEDULE FOR ADDTIONAL ROUNDS OF NAFTA TALKS ALREADY LINED UP,  WITH TRADE OFFICIALS NOW HEAD TO MEXICO FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF TALKS SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH 5. THE THIRD ROUND OF NEGOATIATIONS IS THEN SCHEDULED FOR CANADA IN LATE  SEPTEMBER AND THEN OFFICIALS PLAN TO RECOVENE IN THE U-S IN EARLY  OCTOBER.  UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WITH OUR FRIENDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING SEVERE DROUGHT, WE DO  OUR BEST TO COVER THE DROUGHT EACH WEEK ON THE SHOW. BUT ONE  VIEWER THINKS WE AREN'T DOING THE DRYNESS JUSTICE. THAT'S THIS WEEK'S  CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  STEVE TILLMAN IN PARKVILLE, MISSOURI, OFFERS SOME VERY HELPFUL COMMENTS ON OUR USE OF DROUGHT MAPS. HIS ARTICULATE ANALYSIS IS WORTH READING IN WHOLE, SO YOU WILL FIND IT APPENDED TO MY REMARKS ON OUR WEBSITE."I BELIEVE THAT YOUR USE OF THE US DROUGHT MONITOR DOESN'T SERVE YOUR VIEWERS & CUSTOMERS VERY WELL, BY NOT REPORTING ON TOPSOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND DEFICITS. IN MY OPINION, THE DROUGHT MONITOR RESPONSE TOO SLOWLY, PROVIDING LITTLE USEFUL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF A DROUGHT." AS I SAID BE SURE TO READ HIS WHOLE EMAIL, BUT HERE IS A QUICK RESPONSE. FIRST, YOU ARE RIGHT. YOUR SUGGESTED MAPS DO PRESENT A MORE REAL-TIME PICTURE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS. I SHARED YOUR REMARKS WITH MIKE HOFFMAN, AND HE IS INVESTIGATING USING ADDITIONAL SOIL-MOISTURE GRAPHICS TO SUPPLEMENT OUR COVERAGE. ONE SUCH WHICH I LIKED, MAP IS HERE - THE ADDITIONAL RAIN NEEDED TO RESTORE SOIL MOISTURE TO NORMAL. PUBLISHED WEEKLY, IT ILLUSTRATES A DIFFERENT ASPECT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND MAY BE MORE HELPFUL FOR PRODUCERS AND OTHERS IN AG RELATED INDUSTRIES. HE ALSO FINDS THE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT BLEND MAP HELPFUL. MY EXPERIENCE AS A GROWER WITH DROUGHT LEADS ME TO RANK CROP AND SOIL CONDITION MAPS SECOND TO FORECAST MAPS. FARMERS USUALLY HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA HOW BAD THEIR CROPS ARE SUFFERING, ALTHOUGH SUCH MAPS WOULD HELP US TO ESTIMATE THE EXTENT, AND MIGHT HELP OUR MARKET PLAN. WHAT WE FIXATE ON ARE CHANCES FOR RELIEF, MORE THAN BETTER DESCRIPTIONS OF THE PROBLEM. MIKE IS LOOKING INTO ALTERNATIVES LIKE THESE, BUT I WOULD ADD THIS NOTE OF CAUTION. AGRICULTURE IS USED TO THE USUAL DROUGHT MAP, AND FAMILIAR GRAPHICS CAN CROWD OUT SUPERIOR METHODS OF COMMUNICATING. THE WAY WE'VE ALWAYS DONE IT HAS A POWERFUL ALLURE THAT IS HARD TO EDUCATE PAST.VISIT OUR WEBSITE AND SEE WHAT YOU THINK OF STEVE'S SUGGESTIONS. MIKE AND I WOULD APPRECIATE MORE FEEDBACK ON THIS IDEA.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN AND IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT EMAIL JOHN AT  MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. STILL TO COME, WE CONTINUE OUR CROP TOUR COVERAGE WITH A  COMPREHENSIVE LOOK AT CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO OHIO. WE'LL DO  THAT AFTER THE BREAK.

CROP TOUR UPDATE
A RECORD NUMBER OF SCOUTS WADED THROUGH FIELDS LIKE THIS... COVERING  NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF U-S CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGE. THE GOAL? TO GET  AN ACCURATE LOOK AT THE CROP SIZE THIS YEAR. AND WHAT SCOUTS SAW WAS  A GOOD CROP WITH A LOT OF VARIABILITY EASTERN LEG SCOUTS DIVING INTO  CROP TOUR IN OHIO, WHERE VARIABILITY WAS THE THEME TYING BOTH CROPS TOGETHER.  YOU LOOK OVER FIELDS  AND THEY DON’T’ LOOK LIK GREEN CARPET YOU CN SEE SOME UNULATIONS AND STUFF LIKE THAT ITS SIGNS THAT THERE WERE SOME STRUGGLES EARLY ON> YET, OHIO YIELDS STILL COMING IN HIGHER THAN MANY SCOUTS EXPECTED. HEADING INTO INDIANA, MORE OF THE SAME, BUT AN IMMATURE CROP IS WHAT CAUGHT EASTERN LEG AGRONOMIST MARK BERNARD BY SURPRISE. “IN OTHER YEAR’S WE’VE RUN ACROSS CORN THAT’S BEEN DARN NEAR MATURE AT THIS POINT. WHEN GROWING HAS BEEN GOOD AND CONDITIONS HAVE BEE SUCH BUT THIS YEAR THE MATURITY JUST ISN’T THERE. WE’RE GOING TO REALLY STRUFFLE AS I SAID TO MAKE IT TO MATURIETY BEFORE MOTHER NATURE DECIDES TO PULL THE CURTAIN> SCOUTS SAW YIELDS GENERALLY DOWN FROM LAST YEAR, BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE TOUGH START. AND IIN LLINOIS, INDIANA PACKAGE TOWARD BEGINNING NAT POP 2<TAPE MEASURE> YIELDS ALSO LAGGING THE RECORD FARMERS SAW LAST YEAR.  14- SOYBEANS HAVE BEEN VEERY LOW, I MEAN JUST IN DISTRICT FOUR THAT WE CAM EIN THIS MORNING, I THINK WE DROPPED ABOUT 37 PERCENT IN POD COUNT YEAR ON YEAR YESTERDAY WE HEARD ONE OF THE INDIEPENDTS HAD DONE A SURVEY AND THEY ESTIMATED THAT OCUTY AT 190. WE HAD TROUBLE FINDING A FIELD AT OVER 175. WER’E TALKING CORN HERE. THAT’S ALL 225 DIRT> AND IN THE WEST, DESPITE DRYNESS COVERING 88 PECENT OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA,…  A POCKET IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF THE STATE <MOISTURE – WHEN HE KICKS FOOT ON THE GROUND>  IS TOO WET  6:32 IT’S A WEIRD FEELING TO WATCH THE NEWS AND SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR AND SEEING ALL OF THE DEVASTATION. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR, WE’RE TOO WET. IT’S ODD. REALLY ODD TO HAVE THAT MUCH OF A SWING IN THE SAME STATE.” 6:45”>>AND NAVIGATING THROUGH NEBRASKA, SCOUTS WERE A TAD DISAPOINTED IN OVERALL YIELDS. WE’VE BEEN IN THREE FIELDS, ALL IRRIGATED, WE’VE BEEN ABOUT 170 TO 200. SO I WAS HOPING WE’D BE 230 TO 240 IN THE IRRIGATED FIELDS. AS SCOUTS FROM BOTH LEGS OF THE TOUR MET IN IOWA..IT WAS A TALE OF TWO STORIES. IN THE WEST, BEANS WERE A SURPRISE… WE ARE SEEING FLAT PODS ALL THE WAY DOWN THE PLANT TO THE BOTTOM WHICH TO MY KNOWLEDGE, NOT NORMAL. AND WHERE DROUGHT PLAGUED FIELDS, SCARS ARE SHOWING UP…< WE WENT THROUGH FIELDS WITH AN APH OF 220 230 AND FINDING 75 BUSHEL YIELDS ALL THE WAY UP TO 240 BUSHEL YIELDS.  OOOH. NICE!BUT JUST WEST OF IOWA, CITY…WOWBEANS ARE BOUNTIFUL… THAT’S A BUSH MANWITH POD COUNTS IN THIS FIELD CATCHING PROFARMER’S BRIAN GRETE BY SURPRISE. I T’S HEAVILY PODDED I MEAN LOOK HOW THCK THE STEM IS THE PODDING. THAT’S INCREDIBLE GRETE SAYS THAT WASN’T THE CASE IN EVERY FIELD, WITH OVERALL PODS COUNTS IN IOWA POSITIONED NOTICABLY LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. BUT AS SCOUTS MARCHED THROUGH MINNESOTA, <CROPS GREW MORE CONSISTENT. CORN SHOWING MORE PROMISE THAN BEANS.  I THINK WE’RE LOOKING AT 200 PLUS FOR AN AVERAGE, HOPEFULLY WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAYS TO GO BUT HOPEFULLY. I THINK IT’S GOING OT BE AN AVERAGE YEAR, PROBABLY NOT ABVE AVERAGE. 6 “NORMALLY THIS PART OF MINNESOTA, WE’LL SEE AT LEAST A THOUSAND PODS, 11 TO 112 HUNDRED PODS. OUT OF THE THREE THIS YEAR, 852 HAS BEEN THE HIGH. THAT’S 30 PERCENT LESS THAN WE EXPECT TO SEE.”IF YOU'RE AT FARM PROGRESS SHOW NEXT WEEK, CHIP FLORY, CLINTON GRIFFITHS AND I WILL BE AT THE PIONEER TENT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 9:30 A.M., DISCUSSING CROP TOUR AND ANSWERING ONE IMPORTANT QUESTION-- WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE.  WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE JOINS US FOR THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR  TALES

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE’RE IN MY HOME STATE OF MINNESOTA THIS WEEK FOR A CLASSIC FARMALL H. THIS STYLE OF TRACTOR WAS NOT A RARE PIECE OF EQUIPMENT, BUT IT DOES HAVE A UNIQUE SERIAL NUMBER.  STEVE TREBESCH TELLS US ABOUT THAT AND HOW HE PLANS TO RESTORE THIS ONE SOON. THERE'S A FRIEND OF MINE OUT OF TOWN THAT WORKS ON TRACTORS IT'S BILL'S REPAIR OUT OF PLATO, MINNESOTA AND HE CAME TO ME AND HE SAYS STEVE I GOT THIS TRACTOR YOU GOT TO HAVE IT. AND IT'S IT'S AN H FARMALL A LOT OF THEM AROUND. AS A MATTER OF FACT THERE WAS THREE HUNDRED NINETY ONE THOUSAND SEVEN HUNDRED THIRTY EIGHT H FARMALLS. AND WHAT'S UNIQUE ABOUT THIS ONE IS IT'S THE SERIAL NUMBERS ARE NINETY ONE THOUSAND SIX NINETY. IT'S THE 40TH ONE FROM THE END. OF COURSE IT'S IN ITS WORKLOADS RIGHT NOW BUT IT'S DONE A LOT OF WORK. IT'S A GOOD TRACTOR THE H FARMALL IS STILL I BELIEVE STILL THE HIGHEST PRODUCTION TRACTOR MADE AND EVERYBODY HAD AN AGE FARMALL. IF NOT TWO OR THREE. SO AS YOU SEE IT SEE IT RIGHT NOW THE HOOD AND THE GRILL ARE PAINTED AND IT'S BEEN OVERHAULED THE READY IT'S GOT M.W. GOVERNOR ON IT. THERE'S SOME THINGS ON THIS THAT THE H'S HAD BUT THIS HAS GOT THE BETTER OF IT'S A BIGGER MOTOR. IT'S GOT DISK BRAKES ON IT JUST ALL TOGETHER DIFFERENT THINGS DIFFERENT GEARING ON IT AND STUFF. BUT WE'RE GOING TO PAINT IT THERE ISN'T REALLY TOO MUCH ELSE TO HAVE TO DO WITH IT JUST PAINT IT AND SHOW IT OFF.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE IMMANUAL LUTHERN  AUGSBURG CHURCH IN VANDALIA, ILLINOIS. THE CONGREGATION CELEBRATED 100 YEARS THIS MONTH. TO CELEBRATE, THEY ASKED MEMBERS TO DRIVE THEIR  TRACTORS TO CHURCH INSTEAD OF CARS.  OUR THANKS TO ALBERT WEFER FOR SHARING THEIR STORY.    AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL...  SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - CROPWATCH IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
MANY OF YOU HAD ONE OF THE BEST SEATS IN THE HOUSE FOR THE SOLAR ECLIPSE THIS WEEK. THAT’S IF MOTHER NATURE DIDN’T IMPAIR YOUR VIEW. BUT FOR A SLIVER ABOUT 70 MILES WIDE ACROSS THE U-S, THE BEST VIEW FOR TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE WAS IN YOUR BACK YARD. SHATTO MILK COMPANY IN OSBORN MISSOURI TURNED THE RARE EVENT INTO A SHOW, OPENING UP THEIR FARM TO ROUGHLY 2000 PEOPLE TO WATCH THE ECLIPSE. THE OWNERS SAY IT WAS A GREAT OPPORUTNITY TO NOT ONLY SHOWCASE THE DAIRY AND THE FARM, BUT TO HAVE FUN IN A UNIQUE WAY. 2:16 <AND THEN IT MOVED THROUGH CLOUD COVERING TO TOTALITY. IT GOT EXTRAODIRANLRY DARK MUCH  DARKER THAN I THOUGHT IT WS GOING TO GET AND WE HAD A BREAK JUST IN TIME TO SEE PERFECT TOTALITY. THE FARM EVEN MADE UP TSHIRS AND SOLD COOKIES AND CREAM FLABVRED MILK AHEAD OF THE EVENT. HOW COOL.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR  WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND,  EVERYONE.  

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