USFR Weekly Recap - December 3-4, 2016

June 27, 2015 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
DECEMBER 3-4, 2016


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM  REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND WE'RE ON THE ROAD  THIS WEEK AT THE EXECUTUVE WOMEN IN AG  CONFERENE FROM CHICAGO ILLINOIS. HERE'S WHAT'S  IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. IT'S BEEN CHAOS IN THE CATTLE MARKET, BUT SOME  ANALYSTS THINK WE'VE FINALLY FOUND A BOTTOM.  <THAT'S STILL NOT TO SAY WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE SOME SWINGS IN  PRICES IN 2017> THE PASTURE MAY BE GREENER IN 2017, BUT 2018  COULD BE ANOTHER ROUGH RIDE FOR CATTLE  PRODUCERS.  SOYBEAN PRICES CHANGED COURSE THIS WEEK. IT'S  AN ALL-FEMALE PANEL TO DISECT THE DIRECTION OF  THESE MARKETS.  AS WILD FIRES RAGED, RAVISHING PARTS OF  TENNESSEE THIS WEEK, DROUGHT STRICKEN  SOUTHEAST IS FINALLY SAW MUCH NEEDED RELIEF.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  "TIME FOR BIG CHANGES IN 2017" <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

FALLING FARM PROFITS CONTINUE
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, USDA REVISING  ITS NET FARM INCOME PROJECTIONS FOR THE YEAR.  AND WITH  STRUGGLING COMMODITY PRICES, IT'S A  THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR OF FALLING PROIFTS ON THE  FARM.  2016 NET FARM INCOME IS FORECAST AT NEARLY 67  BILLION DOLLARS. (66.9), THE LOWEST SINCE 2009. THAT'S DOWN MORE THAN 17 PERCENT FROM A YEAR  AGO, AND A 30 PERCENT DROP IN THE LAST TWO YEARS. CASH RECEIPTS EXPECTED TO FALL 23 POINT 4 BILLION  DOLLARS, MAINLY DUE TO A DROP IN THE LIVESTOCK  SECTOR.  USDA EXPECTS A 19 PERCENT INCREASE IN DIRECT  GOVERNMENT FARM PROGRAM PAYMENTS, TO  NEARLY  13 BILLION DOLLARS IN 2016

EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE AVIAN FLU
AVIAN FLU IS SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS EUROPE  AND JAPAN. HERE'S FOOTAGE IN JAPAN, WHERE THEY'RE CULLING  310 THOUSAND BIRDS THIS WEEK, AND165 THOUSAND  DUCKS   . THEY'RE DEALIGN WITH THE LARGEST A-I  OUTBREAK IN NEARLY TWO YEARS.  AND THOUSANDS OF BIRDS ALSO BEING CULLED IN  EUROPE, AS HIGHLY  PATHOGENIC H-5-N-8 AVIAN  INFLUEZA IS SPREADING THERE.  THE WORLD ORGANIZATION FOR ANIMAL HEALTH  CONFIRMING A-I IN 10 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES,  INCLUDING CROATIA, GERMANY, SWEDEN AND RUSSIA. AN ESTIMATED 27 THOUSAND BIRDS IN EUROPE HAVE  DIED IN JUST A FEW WEEKS FROM AVIAN FLU.  HONG KONG AND UKRAINE LAUCHING BANS ON  POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS FROM THOSE  AFFECTED COUNTRIES.

COTTON CATCH UP
COTTON FARMERS IN TEXAS ARE STILL TRYING TO PLAY  CATCH UP AFTER A LATE FREEZE.  THE LATEST USDA REPORT SHOWING 77 PERCENT OF  THE COUNTRY'S COTTON CROP IS OUT OF THE FIELD,  THAT TRAILS AVERAGE BY 7 POINTS. ARKANSAS, LOUSIAINA, MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI  HAVE ALL WRAPPED UP THIS YEAR. BUT TEXAS FARMERS ARE BEHIND AVERAGE BY 14  POINTS.   

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US FROM OUR STUDIOS WITH A LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, THE SOUTHEAST GETTING A MUCH  NEEDED DRINK THIS WEEK. DOES THAT MOISTURE PATTERN CONTINUE?   AS A MATTER OF FACT TYNE, WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM  MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SO THE DROUGHT MONITOR FROM THIS  PAST WEEK DOES NOT REALLY INCLUDE THE RAIN THAT YOU'VE SEEN OVER  THE LAST WEEK OR WHAT'S COMING THIS WEEK AND SO YOU CAN SEE IT  IS STILL SHOWING EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN MOST OF THE  SOUTHEAST HASN'T REALLY CHANGED A WHOLE LOT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IN FACT  WE GO BACK A MONTH YOU CAN SAY IT WASN'T NEARLY AS BAD IN THE SOUTHEAST. IT WAS  GETTING THERE BUT IT'S GOTTEN WORSE AND WORSE AND WORSE, BUT  AGAIN AS LATE AS ONE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE RAIN WE'VE ALREADY  SEEN IN THOSE AREAS SO I THINK IT WILL IMPROVE AT LEAST SOME IT'LL  TAKE AWHILE BUT IT WILL IMPROVE AT LEAST SOME WHEN WE LOOK IT NEXT  WEEK SO THERE'S THAT STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AS GONNA MOVE  THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING RAIN IN MOST AREAS AGAIN JUST A  BIT OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES HERE IS A  COLD BLAST COMING DOWN THE STORM SYSTEM WAS SNOW ARE RIGHT BEHIND IT THROUGHOUT THE IN  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY  THEN THAT STORM IN TEXAS IS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE  GREAT LAKES SO THAT'S PUSHED RAINS THROUGHOUT THAT AREA BUT THE COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOW  ON OUR COMPUTER MODELS FASTER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE COLD BUT THAT'S TYPICALLY WHAT HAPPENS SO I'M GOING  WITH A FASTER VERSION OF IT JUST SO YOU KNOW ANOTHER  STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST BRINGING SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS  IN ON WEDNESDAY BY FRIDAY THEN WE HAVE THE COLDER AIR IN THE  NORTHEAST WHERE WE HAVE A STRING OF STORMS CAN COME IN THROUGH  THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY  WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH RAIN TO THE SOUTH IN MOST LOCATIONS NOW WILL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH A LONGER RANGE  FORECAST

TEASE
UP NEXT, IT'S OUR ANNUAL ALL FEMALE PANEL FROM  HERE AT THE EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE  CONFERENCE. NAOMI BLOHM, JULIANNE JOHNSTON AND  ANGIE SETZER JOIN ME FROM NEXT.  <U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGH TO YOU BY FARMER'S  EDGE. FOR THE LATEST IN MAKING SENSE OF YOUR  DATA- VISIT GROWYOURRETURNS.COM>

ROUNDTABLE ONE
"US FARM REPORT ON THE ROAD AT THE EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN  AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY MONSANTO, ON  BEHALF OF AMERICA'S FARMERS WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT. AS I PROMISED THAT ALL FEMALE  ROUNDTABLE WITH US THIS WEEK FROM THE EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN  AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE HERE IN CHICAGO ILLINOIS. WE'RE GOING TO JUMP RIGHT INTO THINGS.  THE SOYBEAN MARKET IT'S SO  VOLATILE LATELY. WE HAD A NICE RUNUP LAST WEEK ANGIE THIS WEEK WE  DID SEE SOME PRICE PRESSURE. WHY HAVE WE COME DOWN OFF THOSE  HIGHS WE SAW LAST WEEK ?  I GUESS WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT, THE FURTHER WE MOVE AHEAD,  EVERYDAY THAT WE GO ON, IS ANOTHER DAY THAT WE DON'T SEE A  SIGNIFICANT SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER ISSUE DEVELOP, AND THAT'S  REALLY WHERE WE'RE AT RIGHT NOW IS WE NEED SOUTH AMERICA TO KIND OF STUMBLE AGAIN.  MOST PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE THAT LAST YEAR THEIR PRODUCTION LOSS THAT  WE SAW IS SIGNIFICANT. THREE HUNDRED MILLION BUSHEL WHICH WAS A  HUGE DIFFERENCE IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE OUR CARRY OUT STARTED TO  WHERE IT FINISHED, WAS ALL BASED ON SOUTH AMERICA IS SEEING A  PRODUCTION CUT. SO RIGHT NOW SOUTH AMERICA'S CROP LOOKS GOOD. THE BRAZILIAN  AND ARGENTINIAN FARMER RIGHT NOW ARE ROLLING WITH PLANTING PRETTY  SLIDLY IN AND THINGS LOOK OK.  BUT REMEMBER THEIR CROP PROBLEM CAME LATE IN THE SEASON LAST YEAR. THAT'S GOING TO BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BECAUSE LA  NINA STILL IS AROUND. DEFINITELY. BUT THEY DID HAVE A PROBLEM LAST  WEEK. WE SAW PRETTY GOOD RUN IN SOYBEANS. SO WHAT WAS THAT  MOMENTUM LEAD BY? THAT WAS COMMERCIAL BUYING IN CHINA  BECAUSE OF THE SOYBEAN MEAL DEMAND AND THE SOYBEAN OIL DEMAND BECAUSE OF THE  PROBLEMS STILL IN MALAYSIA WITH PALM OIL PRODUCTION. SO THAT DEMAND IS WHAT IS MAKING A MARKET MOVE. AND WE SAW  THAT AGAIN TODAY IN THE WEEKLY SALES REPORT WITH SOYBEAN OIL  HITTING FIFTY FOUR MILLION METRIC TON AND THAT'S A HUGE NUMBER FOR  THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTS. SO IT'S THAT CHINESE DEMAND. BUT WHEN WE LOOK HEADING INTO JANUARY NOW, AND WE SEE SOME  OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION COME ONLINE, IT SEEMS LIKE  WE'RE GONNA HAVE SOME INTENSE COMPETITION WHERE DEMAND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT THIS PACE.  WELL BECAUSE OF PLANTING BEANS SO AGGRESSIVE THIS YEAR IN  MONTEGROSO, SO THEY'RE GONNA HAVE ABOUT TWENTY FIVE PERCENT OF  THE CROP HARVESTED EARLIER THAN NORMAL. AND THAT KIND OF CLOSE  THE WINDOW, A SHORTEN THE WINDOW FOR U S SOYBEAN EXPORTS.  HOWEVER WE STILL  HAVE A LOT OF SOYBEAN EXPORT WINDOW HERE.   LET'S KEEP IN MIND THAT BRAZIL BECAUSE THEIR SUPPLIES WERE TIGHT  LAST YEAR, MAY NOT BE AS WILLING AND AGGRESSIVELY SELLING EARLY IN  THE MARKETING YEAR LIKE THE MARKET'S ANTICIPATING . THEIR PIPELINE'S  STARTING AND MORE EMPTY THAN WHAT IT HAS IN THE PAST. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME DOMESTIC SUCTION  THAT'LL HAPPEN THAT'LL KEEP THEM   FROM HITTING THE GLOBAL MARKET, BUT WITH THEIR PACE OF PLANNING  STARTING SO QUICKLY THAT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT COULD CAUSE PERHAPS THE THE BUYING SIDE OF THINGS. HARD TO GET BULLISH NEWS IN  THAT SITUATION. SO CONSIDERING THAT CONSIDERING ALL THESE AND NEW  CROP BEANS OF THE SOMETHING THAT WE SHOULD BE PRICING RIGHT  NOW? I'VE BEEN DOING SMALL INCREMENTS TO GET STARTED BECAUSE  YOU'RE OUT A TEN DOLLAR LEVEL .AND IT'S A GREAT PLACE TO GET STARTED  ESPECIALLY WHEN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME IT WAS SO GLOOM AND DOOM.  AND IF THE WEATHER IN  SOUTH AMERICA AND SOMETHING AMAZING AND WE HAVE AN  AMAZING CROP HERE AGAIN, PRICES ABSOLUTELY COULD SLIDE LOWER. AT  THE SAME TIME THE FUND'S WORST A LONG CLOSE TO ONE HUNDRED  THIRTY THOUSAND CONTRACTS. THEY'RE WAITING TO SEE IF ANYTHING  HAPPENS IN SOUTH AMERICA. SO I WOULD GET STARTED, BUT I WOULD ALSO BE OPEN TO RE OWNING IT  BECAUSE IF WEATHER DOES BECOME AN ISSUE,  THE MARKET HAS THE ABILITY TO KEEP MOVING HIGHER, ESPECIALLY  WHEN YOU LOOK AT GLOBAL STOCKS TO USAGE RATIOS. IT'S NOT AS  BEARISH AS THE NUMBER ON THE STOCKS TO USE RATIO, AND THE TREND  OF DAYS OF SUPPLY GLOBALLY, IS ACTUALLY TRENDING LOWER. DO YOU THINK SOYBEANS ARE   ARE FAIRLY PRICED RIGHT NOW? BECAUSE I'M AMAZED THAT THEY'VE  BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ONTO THAT $10 HANDLE FOR SO LONG. ABSOLUTELY I  DO THINK THEY'RE FAIRLY PRICED  BECAUSE CHINA CONTINUES TO BUY BEANS AGGRESSIVELY. AND WE  CONTINUE TO EXPORT BEANS AT A RAPID PACE. SO I DO THINK THE PRICE IS FAIR AND I THINK THIS RECENT CORRECTION THAT WE SEE IS A  CORRECTION IN A BULL MARKET UNLESS THAT SUPPORT IS VIOLATED THEN  TURN THE TIDE HAS CHANGED.  ANGIE SWITCHING TO CORN, WE PRETTY MUCH KNOW THE STORY THERE. NOT AS  MUCH OLD CROP WAS SOLD NOT AS MUCH A NEW CROP OF COURSE A  SOUL BECAUSE THOSE PRICES WE HAVE SEEN THE RUN THAT WE SAW ON  SOYBEANS. SO THOSE INDIVIDUALS THAT STILL HAVE OLD CROP CORN IN  THEIR POSSESSION WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE FOR THEM? IT DEPENDS ON IF YOU'RE PAYING FOR A COMMERCIAL STORAGE OR IF YOU  HAVE IT AT HOME. I MEAN THAT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE. IF YOU'RE PAYING  THE ELEVATOR TO HOLD ON AND YOU'RE TAKING FULL CASH PRICE RISK,  YOU'RE  PUTTING YOURSELF IN A SITUATION THAT COULD GO FROM BAD TO  WORSE.  IF THE MARKET DOESN'T MOVE, AND YOU CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE  STORAGE COSTS AND THE BASES STAYS FLAT OR ITS WIDER IN THE AREAS  THEY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CORN, YOU'RE REALLY RUNNING THE  RISK OF OF PAYING A LOT OF STORAGE AND SELLING YOUR CORN FOR AT OR  BELOW THE COST AT HARVEST TIME. SO MAKE SURELY  YOU HAVE COMMERCIAL STORAGE YOU'RE LOOKING AT ALTERNATIVE PRICING AT HARVEST TIME.  AT HOME YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHAT YOU'RE LOCAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND LOOKS LIKE WITH YOUR BASIS AND AND GET  A FEEL FOR THAT. AND MAKE A DETERMINATION FROM THERE IT MAKES  SENSE TO SELL OR NOT AND THEN HOPEFULLY WILL SEE SOME SORT OF  PRICE. BUT REALISTICALLY, UNLESS WE SEE SOMETHING HAPPEN IN JANUARY WITH  THE USDA, CORN IS PROBABLY IN A LEAR LIKE A SLUG REALLY IT'S ONLY  DEFENSE. CORN'S BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WHEAT AS WELL. THERE'S TOO  MUCH WHEAT.  SO WHAT ELSE WE NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER TO MOVE THIS CORN PRICE  HIGHER? I'LL FIND OUT WHEN WE COME BACK

ROUNDTABLE TWO
"US FARM REPORT ON THE ROAD AT THE EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN  AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY MONSANTO, ON  BEHALF OF AMERICA'S FARMERSWELCOME BACK. NAOMI WHAT ELSE WE NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER TO  MOVE THIS CORN MARKET HIGHER? WE NEED TO SEE EXPORTS CONTINUE TO STAY STRONG. WE ALSO NEED TO  MAKE SURE THAT THE CORN-ETHANOL NUMBERS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE  EPA NEW MANDATES AND BLENDS THAT THEY'RE LOOKING FOR. SO THAT'LL  BE GOOD. AND THEN WE NEED A WEATHER ISSUE. THAT WE'RE LOOKING  ARE READY TO SEE CORN ACRES ABOUT THREE TO FOUR MILLION LESS NEXT YEAR. AND SO IF THERE'S  A WEATHER ISSUE THAT CAN HAPPEN, EITHER IN SOUTH AMERICA OR  HERE IN THE UNITED STATES,  CORN HAS EVERY REASON TO GO BACK TO TEST LAST SUMMER'S HIGH  NEAR THE FOUR FIFTY LEVEL. BUT AS ANGIE WAS SAYING, WERE REALLY JUST  STUCK TRADING SIDEWAYS FOR MAYBE ANOTHER MONTH OR SO WHILE WE  WAIT FOR SOME NEWS.  WHAT SCARES ME THE MOST ABOUT EXPORTS JULIANNE IS A STRONG  DOLLAR. WE JUST KEEP GAINING STRENGTH. MULTI YEAR -- IS THIS THE NEW NORMAL WHEN IT COMES TO THE DOLLAR? ARE WE  GOING TO BE AT THESE LEVELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME? THERE'S A RISK OF THE DOLLAR STAYED ELEVATED, BUT I THINK AS WE GET  INTO THAT FOMC, THE EXPECTATION IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS MONTH IS FOR  THE FOMC TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES, AND THE DOLLAR HAS RALLIED IN  ANTICIPATION OF THAT. MAYBE WE'LL SEE THE FAST REACTION GIVE SOME  ENCOURAGEMENT FROM FOREIGN BUYERS COME IN AND CATCH UP ON  SOME OF THOSE CORN  PURCHASES. BUT CORN THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WHEAT. THERE ARE  COMPETING SUPPLIES THAT ARE EXTREMELY LARGE FOR CORN AND WHEAT AND YOU NEED TO USE THE OPPORTUNITIES WHEN YOU GET  THEM TO MAKE THOSE CORN SALES. NOT GOING TO BE AS LOFTY AS YOU'D  HOPED, BUT JUST USE THOSE OPPORTUNITIES. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TRANSITION INTO TRUMP'S NEW POLICY AND WE'VE  SEEN THE STOCK MARKET TO SKYROCKET ON AND SO DO YOU THINK THAT  WILL CONTINUE FOR ME AND WE MAY BE OVERDONE THAT SIDE OF  THINGS? TO ME I THINK WE'VE ALL I MEAN AT THIS POINT IT'S EASY TO THINK YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE ONE  LEADER COME IN AND MAKE THIS SWEEPING CHANGE AND SEE  INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING INCREASE AND ALL THESE REASONSINGS  BEHIND WHY WE'VE SEEN THE STOCK MARKET RALLY, BUT I REALLY  QUESTION WHAT THAT DOES FOR THE DOLLAR. EVENTUALLY BECAUSE WE'RE ALREADY, WHAT,  NINETEEN TRILLION DOLLARS  IN DEBT? WHERE DO WE   GET THAT MONEY? I JOKINGLY TOLD MY HUSBAND OVER LUNCH MAYBE  WE INTRODUCE A SOYBEAN EXPORT TAX. AND HE HIT ME. NOT IN A BAD WAY. THOSE ARE THINGS TO BE AFRAID WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE NEW  POLICIES. WE HAVE THE CHINESE ISSUES. TRUMP'S ALREADY MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE FIRST ONE HUNDRED DAYS HE  WANTS TO NAME CHINA AS A CURRENCY MANIPULATOR.  WE RELY ON CHINA FOR NEARLY A QUARTER OVER SOYBEAN EXPORTS. ARE  THINGS YOU HAVE TO HAVE IN THE BACK OF YOUR MINDWITH THE UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD THAT THAT COULD REALLY RESULT IN  IN SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MARKET GOING FORWARD. NOT TO MENTION NAFTA PULLING OUT OF SOME OF THESE TRADE DEALS,  THESE TRADE DEALS THAT THAT THAT THE DAIRY INDUSTRY NEEDS IN ORDER  FOR FOR EXPORTS. BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS VERY DAY THE PRICE LATELY,  WE'VE SEEN A NICE RUN UP HERE AT THE END OF THE YEAR. CAN THAT  CONTINUE IN TWO TWENTY SEVENTEEN WHEN WE WERE STILL SEEN MORE  MILK PRODUCTION  COME ONLINE?  I WOULD SAY THAT THIS NICE RUN UP THAT WE'VE HAD IN  MILK HAS BEEN MORE EXPORT DEMAND RELATED. OUR EXPORTS FOR ALL  DAIRY IS UP THREE PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. BUT THE LEAD IS FROM  BUTTER AND WHEY. OUR ACTUAL CHEESE EXPORTS ARE DOWN A LITTLE BIT,  BUT DOMESTIC CHEESE DEMAND IS SOLID. BUT YOU'RE RIGHT.  THE OCTOBER PRODUCTION REPORT WAS UP TWO  PERCENT FROM THE OCTOBER PRIOR.  SEPTEMBER PRODUCTION  UP TWO PERCENT FROM THE YEAR PRIOR. SO WE HAVE HUGE AMOUNTS  OF MILK HERE. AND THANKFULLY WE HAVE A DEMAND-LED MARKET. AND  SO PRICES WILL PROBABLY STAY HERE IN THE UPPER SIXTEENS FOR A LITTLE  WHILE, BUT I DON'T THINK WE HAVE A REASON TO GO TO MUCH HIGHER  THAN THAT. AND DON'T BE SURPRISED WE SEE THE MARKET AND THAT TRADING BETWEEN SIXTEEN AND  SEVENTEEN AS WE FINISH OUT FOURTH QUARTER. THE MASSIVE BUTTER AND CHEESE SUPPLIES, DO YOU THINK THAT'S KIND OF A WET BLANKET  GOING INTO NEXT YEAR THAT WE STILL HAVE OR DOES THAT SITUATION  CHANGE?WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS DOMESTIC CHEESE'S DISAPPEARANCE  FROM PAST SIX WEEKS BEING STRONG, BUT YES OVERALL WITH ALL OF THE SUPPLY OF MILK THAT'S  GOT TO GET TURNED INTO SOMETHING, SO RIGHT WE'LL HAVE A HAVE THE  SUPPLIES AND WE JUST NEED THAT EXPORT MARKET TO CONTINUE. THE  CATTLE MARKET? WELL THIS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A LOW IN AND THERE'S  SOME PEOPLE THERE HOPING THAT IS THE MAJOR LOW. BECAUSE IN  YEARS AND SIX, WE OFTEN GET A CYCLE LOW. HOWEVER CYCLE HIGH  CAME TWO YEARS LATE, AND BEEF PRODUCTION'S GOING TO BE LARGER  NEXT YEAR THAN IT WAS THIS YEAR. AND A COURSE LIKE THE CORN  MARKET HAS WHEAT TO DEAL WITH THE CATTLE MARKET HAS PLENTIFUL SUPPLIES OF PORK AND POULTRY AND  THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW. BUT THE BIG WILDCARD IS THE  ECONOMY . IF THE ECONOMY CAN GET A LIGHT UNDERNEATH IT, WE WILL  SEE BEEF DEMAND IMPROVE BECAUSE   THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE. BUT YOU THINK SHORT TERM WE PUT A LOW IN? I THINK WE PUT IN A LOW  IN THAT NEEDS TO BE HEDGED SOON. GOING INTO 2017, WHAT DO WE  NEED TO HAPPEN HIGHER ? WE NEED THE ECONOMY TO ENGINE TO BE STRONG BECAUSE  WE NEED DOMESTIC DEMAND TO IMPROVE. EXPORT DEMANDS  IMPROVED AS WE END THIS YEAR AND EXPORT DEMAND SHOULD  IMPROVE A  LITTLE BIT NEXT YEAR. THE DOLLAR IS A   WILD CARD. BUT U S BEEF IS GAINING MARKET SHARE IN SOME OF THOSE  IMPORTANT MARKETS. BUT DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KEY FOR ME. AND ONE  THING THAT I THINK HAS HAPPENED IS WHILE BOXED BEEF PRICES  DECLINED DRAMATICALLY, DRAMATICALLY RETAIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED DRAMATICALLY AND WE  DON'T NEED TO SEE BOND PRICES DECLINE THE CASH WILL DECLINE VERY  MUCH MORE WE NEED TO SEE RETAIL PRICES DECLINE SO THAT  CONSUMERS FEEL CONFIDENT MAKING OF BEEF PURCHASES. THAT WOULD  MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE NEXT YEAR. AND ON THE FEEDER SIDE OF THINGS THAT I THINK WE ACTUALLY SAW  SOME GREEN THIS THIS WEEK THE TRACK SHOWED THE POSITIVE SIDE OF  THE LEDGER. SO MUCH NEGATIVE. ALL RIGHT WELL WHAT IS CAUSING THAT WILL DO THAT  WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS ANGIE, LET'S START MY NUMBER ONE THING IS I GET A LOT OF GUYS TELL ME THEY'RE TALKING  ABOUT INCREASING SOYBEAN ACRES NEXT YEAR BECAUSE OF THE  REVENUE PROJECTIONS AND HAVING IT MAKE SENSE TO ADD IN EXTRA  ACRES   THEY'RE GOING TO DO THAT MAKE SURE YOU'RE HEDGING YOUR BETS AT  THAT POINT. IF THE REVENUE NUMBERS RIGHT NOW ARE TELLING YOU THAT  YOU NEED TO PLANT MORE BEANS, THEN YOU NEED TO BE TAKING CARE  OF THEM FROM CONTRACTING STANDPOINT ARE THE VERY LEAST PROTECT  YOUR DOWNSIDE RISK DON'T GO INTO SPRINGTIME, PLANT EXTRA BEANS AND THEN FIGURE OUT  WHAT TO DO LATER ON. THAT DOES OKAY. NAOMI, MAKE TIME FOR MARKETING THIS YEAR MORE THAN EVER YOU NEED TO MAKE TIME EVERY DAY AND WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING EVERY  DAY YOU NEED TO BE NOT ONLY WATCHING SUPPLY AND DEMAND HERE  IN THE UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE WORLD, YOU  NEED TO BE WATCH  THE DOLLAR YOU NEED TO BE WATCHING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN ALL THE  POLITICAL MUMBO JUMBO THAT'S GOING BE GOING ON THIS COMING YEAR  AND YOU NEED TO JUST BE AWARE OF ALL THE POLICIES THAT ARE GOING  TO BE COMING UP BECAUSE ANY ONE OF THEM ANY ONE OF THOSE THINGS ON ANY ONE DAY CAN MAKE THE WHOLE  MARKETPLACE GO RACING HIGHER OR LOWER AND YOU HAVE TO BE AWARE  AND GET YOUR SCENARIO PLANNING READY FOR ANY  THING MIGHT HAPPEN. ALRIGHT, THANKS, NAOMI. AND TO QUICKLY BUILD  ON THAT IT WOULD BE ON SINCE WE SAW A REALLY TOUGH YEAR BUT WE DID HAVE SOME WORKING OPPORTUNITIES WE COULD MAKE A PROFIT, WE  WILL HAVE MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AGAIN IN TWO THOUSAND SEVENTEEN  TO MAKE A PROFIT. BE READY TO MAKE THOSE OPPORTUNITIES AND ACT  FAST. ALRIGHT, THANK YOU LADIES. IT WAS SUCH A JOY TO HAVE YOU GUYS HERE  WITH ME IN THIS WEEKEND,  I APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US JOHN  PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT RECEIVE A FREE TIRAL OF THE DAILY MARKET LETTER  AND GAIN KNOWLEDGE ABOTU CURRENT MARKET  CONDITIONS FROM THE PROFESSIONALS AT BOWER  TRADING. VIEW THE MARKETS LIKE NEVER BEFORE. GO  TO BOWER TRADING DOT COM

JOHN’S WORLD
IN TYPICAL JOHN FASHION, HE'S MAKING A FASHION  STATEMENT THIS WEEK. HE JOINS US NOW FROM THE  FARM. JOHN.WITH OUR OUTSIDE WORK FINISHED AND OUTSIDE WEATHER MORE  UNPLEASANT, MANY OF US HAVE BEEN TURNING OUR WANDERING  ATTENTION TO SOME EQUALLY IMPORTANT, BUT MUCH LESS AGREEABLE INDOOR TASKS. FOR EXAMPLE, I HAVE BEEN DILIGENTLY GETTING MY  BOOKS UP TO DATE. I'M ALMOST THROUGH WITH FEBRUARY, SO THAT PUTS  ME WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BUT SLAVING AWAY FOR MINUTES AT A TIME AT MUNDANE BOOKKEEPING  CAN TAKE A TOLL ON EVEN THE MOST DISCIPLINED INTELLECT, NOT TO  MENTION MINE. SO I HAVE ALSO BEEN BUCKLING DOWN TO OTHER YEAR- ENDING MANAGERIAL DECISIONS. NONE IS MORE DIFFICULT OR DISTURBING  AS RETIRING THIS YEAR'S HAT. NOW THERE ARE MANY OF YOU WHO KEEP  SEVERAL HATS IN PLAY AND TROT EACH OUT FOR ITS UNIQUE PURPOSE - A  WORK HAT, ONE FOR GOING TO TOWN, YOUR FUNERAL HAT, AND SO ON. I'M  MORE OF A ONE-HAT GUY, SO AT SOME POINT, I EITHER HAVE TO CHANGE  THE OIL OR CHANGE THE HAT. I KNOW ALL ABOUT THOSE HAT-CLEANING  TIPS, LIKE PUTTING IT IN THE DISHWASHER, BUT IF YOU THINK I'M GOING TO  LET JAN SEE ME PUT ANYTHING IN A DISHWASHER YOU DON'T  UNDERSTAND THE DOMINO THEORY OF HOUSEHOLD CHORES. THAT WOULD  BE LIKE HER CATCHING ME SEWING A BUTTON ON. SO IT'S TIME TO  RUMMAGE IN THE TOP SHELF OF THE CLOSET THROUGH MY CACHE OF FREE  CAPS FOR MY 2017 MODEL. DESPITE THEIR ONE-SIZE SORTA FITS ALL DESIGN, THERE IS STILL A BREAK- IN PERIOD FOR NEW CAPS, WHICH IS ONE REASON WHY PARTING WITH A  GREASY OLD ONE IS PAINFUL. THIS FAITHFUL COMPANION CAME FROM AN  EQUIPMENT DEALER IN NORTH DAKOTA, SO I WAS PRETTY SURE IT WOULD  STAND OUT HERE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AND IT HAS BEEN A GOOD ONE,  SAVING MY INCREASINGLY UNPROTECTED SCALP FROM MORE THAN A FEW  LACERATIONS, AS WELL AS HOLDING ITS SHARE OF BOLTS, O-RINGS AND  CHEETOS IN THE FIELD. GOOD TIMES. BUT 2017 IS GOING TO BE ALL ABOUT BIG CHANGES, SO FASHIONPLATES  SUCH AS MYSELF NEED TO MOVE WITH THESE TURBULENT TIMES. WHADDAYA THINK?  

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE MAY HAVE  FOUND A BOTTOM IN THIS CATTLE MARKET FOR NOW,  BUT PRODUCERS AREN'T IN GREENER PASTURES JUST  YET. THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U-S FARM  REPORT FROM TEH EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN AG  CONFERENCE IN CHICAGO ILLINOIS. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD. IT'S BEEN A CATTLE CRUNCH FOR TWO YEARS, BUT  THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK UP. HOW LONG CAN  BETTER MARGINS LAST?  SEVERE DRYNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST FUELING  MASSIVE WILDFIRES THIS WEEK. BUT DID RAINS THIS  WEEK HELP?  IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, WE'RE SWITCHING GEARS AND  I AM ANSWERING A VIEWER'S QUESTION WITH A  MESSAGE FROM A MOM. 

GATLINBURG WILDFIRES
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, AS DRY CONDITIONS IN THE  SOUTHEAST CREATED A PRIME BATTLE GROUND FOR  RAGING WILDFIRES, THE DEVESTATING DESTRUCTION  LEAVING BEHIND HEARTBREAKING AFTERMATH THIS  WEEK.  JUST LOOK AT THIS FOOTAGE OF GATLINBURG,  TENNESSE. 70 MILE PER HOUR WINDS FUELING  WILDFIRES SO LARGE, THE SMOKE COULD EVEN BE  SEEN ON RADARS THIS WEEK.  RAINS DID DRENCH THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK, BUT IT  WAS A LITTLE TOO STRONG, CAUSING FLOODING IN  STATES LIKE ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE, WITH MORE  RAIN ON THE WAY.  THOSE RAINS NOT SHOWING UP ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR JUST YET. 

DROUGHT MONITOR
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR  SHOWS DROUGHT EXPANDING IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH 36 PECENT OF THE REGION SEEING EXTREME  CONDITIONS.  DROUGHT STILL CONSUMING NEARLY 88 PERCENT OF  CALIFORNIA.  THE RAINY SEASON IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY IN  CALIFORNIA. STATE WATER REGULATORS ARE  HOPEFUL, AS IT ANNOUNCES WATER ALLOCATIONS FOR  THE COMING YEAR. THE DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES SAYS AT  THIS POINT IN THE SEASON, IT CAN FILL 20-PERCENT OF  REQUESTS FROM PUBLIC WATER AGENCIES THAT DRAW  WATER FROM THE STATE'S SPIGOT.  THE STATE WATER PROJECT IS ONE OF SEVERAL  SOURCES OF WATER FOR THE PUBLIC WATER  AGENCIES. THE D-W-R SAYS OCTOBER STORMS HELPED PUSH  RESERVOIRS HIGHER, BUT THE STATE COULD STILL END- UP IN A SIXTH YEAR OF DROUGHT.  LAST YEAR THE INITIAL ALLOCATION WAS JUST TEN  PERCENT. BUT IT'S FINAL ALLOCATION WAS 60- PERCENT.

EPA REGULATION OF TREATED SEEDS
JUST BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A CALIFORINIA  FEDERAL COURT RULED IN FAVOR OF THE EPA AND A  CLUSTER AG GROUPS OVER THE USE OF SEED  TREATMENTS. THE PLAINTIFFS WANTED EPA TO REGULATE TREATED  SEEDS JUST LIKE THEY DO THE PESTICIDES  THEMSELVES. THE COURT DISAGREED SAYING THAT ADDITIONAL  REGULATION WOULD UNNECESSARILY DUPLICATE EPA'S  EXISTING SCIENCE-BASED REGULATORY REVIEW.  

USDA GRASSLAND CRP INCREASE
THE EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE  CONFERENCE KICKING OFF WITH A DISCUSSION  AROUND POLICY. USDA ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK AN AN  ADDITIONAL 500 THOUSAND ACRES CAN NOW BE  ENROLLED IN GRASSLAND CRP.  USDA CALLING IT A WORKING LANDS TYPE CONCEPT  FOR CRP, DESIGNED TO DIVERSIFY THE PROGRAM.  < THE FARM BILL GAVE US A 2 MILLION ACRE CAP. AND LAST YEAR  BECAUSE WE WERE SO CLOSE TO THE OVERALL 24 MILLION ACRE CAP, WE  WERE ONLY ABLE TO ENROLL 100 THOUSAND ACRES, BUT THERE WAS A LOT  OF DEMAND, OVER A MILLION ACRES CAME IN BEING OFFERED TO GO ITNO  TEH GRASSLANDS PROGRAM. SO NOW THIS YEAR WE HAVE A FEW ACRES  COMING OUT SO WE HAVE SOME MORE FLEXIBILITY. > TAYLOR SAYS USDA IS SEEING MORE INTEREST IN C-R-P  AS FARMERS FACE TIGHTENING MARGINS ACROSS THE  COUNTRY.  ENROLLMENT IS OPEN NOW.  SHE SAYS ANOTHER PRIOIRTY FOR USDA  TODAY...ENSURING A SMOOTH TRANSITION TO THE NEW  ADMINISTRATION. 

CRANBERRY GROWERS ASKING FOR ASSISTANCE
CRANBERRY GROWERS ARE ASKING AG SECRETARY  TOM VILSACK FOR SOME HELP WITH THEIR BUMPER  CROP THIS YEAR.  THE CONGRESSIONAL CRANBERRY CAUCUS, WHICH IS  COMPRISED OF 17 MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, WROTE A  LETTER TO THE SECRETARY ASKING HIM TO MAKE A  LARGE PURCHASE OF CRANBERRIES, JUST LIKE HE DID  FOR MILK PRODUCERS EARLIER THIS YEAR. EXCESS PRODUCT IS WEIGHING ON PRICES AROUND  THE COUNTRY.  GROWERS CAN MANAGE OVERSUPPLY BY DESTROYING  OR DUMPING THE CROP, BUT THE CAUCUS THINKS THE  CRANBERRIES WOULD BE PUT TO BETTER USE  THROUGH DELIVERING IT TO LOCAL FOOD PANTRIES.  IN 2013, USDA MADE A LARGE PURCHASE OF  CRANBERRIES WHEN GROWERS FACED ANOTHER  BUMPER CROP.  

WEATHER
BROUGHT TO YOU BY VORVUS PRE EMERGENCE CORN  HEBRICIDE FROM BAYER. THE ONLY HERBICIDE TO  OFFER THREE LEVELS OF DEFENSE AGAINST WEEDS. BURNDOWN RESIDEUAL AND REACTIVATION WITH RAIN.  THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN WITH A LONGER RANGE LOOK AT WEATHER.  MIKE, WE'RE SEEING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF  HTE COUNTRY. I KNOW IT'S DECEMBER, BUT IS THIS  PATTERN HERE TO STAY?  THANKS TYNE ABSOLUTELY AND IN FACT WE'RE GONNA SEE OUR FIRST REAL  BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR COMING ACROSS A COUNTRY. YOU'RE ALREADY  STARTING TO SEE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. YOU CAN SEE ON  THE JET STREAM A WATCH WHAT HAPPENS THIS WHOLE THING DIGS INTO THE WEST  THEN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD AIR IS  ALREADY SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES KNOW HOW VALLEY  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST  AND THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK IN IN THE NEXT WEEKEND THE COLD AIR IS A REALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST  ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND BUT YOU'LL NOTICE IT KIND OF FLATTENS THINGS OUT AGAIN  SO YOU STAY MILD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN IT WON'T LAST LONG IN THE  SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS FAR AS I CALLED HIS  CONCERN BUT ANOTHER SHOT PROBABLY COMING LATER NEXT WEEKEND. SO,  MY THIRTY DOLLARS FOR CHAPTERS BELOW  NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LOWER FORTY EIGHT HAVEN'T SEEN THAT IN QUITE  SOME TIME ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FROM NEW  ENGLAND NORTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE GREAT  LAKES AND THE MANY PARTS OF THE EAST WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE  SOUTHEAST BELOW NORMAL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE  NORTHWEST.TYNE THANKS, MIKE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
IT'S BEEN A MAJOR FINANCIAL CRUNCH IN CATTLE  COUNTRY THE PAST TWO YEARS. FEEDYARD MARGINS  CUT AS DEEP AS 500 DOLLARS PER HEAD LAST YEAR.  WHILE THE SITUATION HAS IMPROVED, SOME ANALYSTS  SAY LOOKING LONGER-TERM, WE'RE NOT SEEING  GREENER PASTURES JUST YET. THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  <IT'S BEEN TOUGH AS HELL>BOB FOOTE HAS BEEN IN THE CATTLE FEEDING  BUSINESS MOST OF HIS LIFE. THE VOLATILITY IS  NOTHING NEW TO FOOTE, BUT 2016 HAS BEEN ONE OF  HIS MOST CHALLENGING YEARS YET.  <THREE YEARS AGO WAS PROBABLY THE BEST YEAR WE EVER HAD. AND  WE WENT DOWN SINCE THEN> THE PRICE PEAK MAY BE IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR, AS  THE WET BLANKET TODAY IS AN OVERSUPPLY OF  PROTEIN.  <THE STORY IS PRETTY WELL KNOWN. THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH MEAT OUT  THERE> <FOLLOWING 4 TO 5 PERCENT INCREASE IN PORDUDCTION THIS YEAR, WE'RE  STILL GOING TO BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER 2, 2.5, 3 PERCENT INCREASE IN  BEEF PRODUCTION IN 2017> IT'S CATTLE FEEDERS LIKE FOOTE  TIGTHENING THEIR  BELTS TO SURVIVE ANOTHER DAY.  <ANTYING YOU CAN DO TO MINIMISZZE COST. FEED. OUR BIG COST IS  FEEDER CATTL.E THE NEXT THING WOULD BE FEED. THE NEXT THING IS YOU  UHOPE YOU GET AN UP MARKET EVERY NOW AND THEN TO HELP YOU> NOW THAT WE'RE ENTERING THE FINAL DAYS OF 2016,  THINGS ARE LOOKING UP.  < WE ACTUALLY THINK THAT CATTLE FEEDERS TODAY THAT HAVE A  SUBSTANCIALLY IMPROVED PROFIT OPPORTUNITY IN 2017 OVER WHAT'S  TRANSPIREDIN 2016> CLOSE SAYS THE NUMBER OF FEEDER CATTLE IMPORTS  FROM BOTH CANADA AND MEXICO DECLINED THIS YEAR,  WHICH IS HELPING OFFSET THE INCREASE IN DOMESTIC  PRODUCTION. THE WEEKLY STERLING PROFIT TRACKER HAS BEEN  MOSTLY RED THIS YEAR, BUT THE LATEST REPORT FOR  THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 25TH SHOWING GREEN, WITH  52 DOLLAR PER HEAD GAINS. THAT'S QUITE THE  REVESAL FROM THE 51 DOLLAR PER HEAD LOSSES  FEEDYARDS SAW LAST MONTH, AND THE STARTLING 486  DOLLAR LOSSES THAT CUT SO DEEP ONE YEAR AGO.  IT'S RECORD CARCASS WEIGHTS THAT PUSHED FEEDER  PRICES SO FAR DOWN IN 2015. CLOSE SAYS WHILE  AVERAGE CARCASS WEIGHTS ARE BELOW YEAR AGO  LEVELS, IT'S STILL ABOVE THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE.  <ONE THING PRODUCERS HAVE TO DO TO HELP REDUCE THAT ESCALATION  IN BEEF TONNAGE, IS SIMPLY START SELLING CATTLE AT LIGHTER WEIGHTS,  TRY TO MOVE THESE CATTLE OUT A LITTLE AHEAD OF TIME, AND PROVIDE  LESS TONNAGE ON THE MARKET> BEYOND SUPPLY, CATTLE PRODUCERS KNOW THEY  NEED MORE DEMAND AND THANKFULLY TIS THE  SEASON FOR PEOPLE TO BUY MEAT. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME REAL INTERSEST IN BUYERS IN MIDDLE  MEATS GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY UISAGE SEASON. > THAT'S WHY ANALYSTS LIKE CLOSE AND BRUGLER  THINK SHORT-TERM, WE'VE FOUND A FLOOR AFTER  BEING HEAVILY OVERSOLD.  <THAT'S STILL NOT TO SAY WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE SOME SWINGS IN  PRICES IN 2017, BUT WE DO THINK WE'RE WORKING FROM A PRICE LEVEL  TO PROVIDE MORE STABILITY IN A BETTER MAEKTING ENVIORNMENT THATN  WHAT WE'VE SEEN THIS YEAR> WHILE THE BOTTOM MAY BE IN FOR NOW, LONG-TERM,  THE PICTURE IS MUCH MORE BLEAK.  <I THINK LONG TERM THE CATTLE CYCLE SAYS WE'RE STILL EXPANDING  CATTLE NUMBERS. YOU'LL PROBABLY SOMETIME BY 2018 GO DOWN TO 80  BUCKS. I THINK CATTLEMEN NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT. IF THE CYCLE  CONTINUES, THERE'S MORE TO COME> BRUGLER SAYS THAT'S LARGELY DEPNDENT ON PORK  AND POULTRY. IF THOSE SECTORS CUT BACK  PRODUCTION, CATTLE MAY NOT DIP THAT LOW. BUT IT'S  A STARTLING PROJECTION FOR WHICH PRODUCERS NEED TO PREPARE.  <YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK HARD AT YOUR OPERATION. SHOULD YOU BE  EXPANDING OR SHOULD YOU BE CUTTING BACK? PARTICULARLY ON THE  COW CALF SIDE OF THINGS> CLOSE IS HOPEFUL THE LARGE PRICE GAP BETWEEN  LIVE CATTLE PRICES AND RETAIL BEEF PRICES THIS  YEAR WILL TIGHTEN.  <ONME THING THAT WOULD HELP MORE THAN ANYTHIGN IS IF WE WOUDL  FINALLY STAR TOT SEE AN EASING OF THE STICKY RETAIL BEEF PRICES, THE  LOWER PRICES WILL ENCOURAGE MORE CONSUMER SPENDING MORE  PURCHASES OF BEEF THAT WOULD BE A HUGE BENEFIT IN GETTING THIS  TONNAGE CLEARED IN THE MARKET> WHILE THE OUTLOOK FOR 2017 IS BETTER, FOOTE IS  TAKING IN IT IN STRIDE, HOPEFUL THE WORST IS BEHIND  HIM.  <IT'S NOT GOING TO BE NO 2014 WHEN WE HAD A WINDBANGER WITH  OUTSTANDING PROFITS BUT WE'RE GOING TO BE ALRIGHT> AND WITH THREE SONS PART OF THE FAMILY FEEDYARD  BUSINESS, HE HAS SIMPLE ADVICE FOR YOUNG  PRODUCERS STILL TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH.  <HANG ON. IT'LL GET BETTER. > ANALYSTS SAY RED MEAT EXPORTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY  STRONG IN 2016. BUT WE NEED THAT MOMENTUM TO  CARRY THROUGHOUT NEXT YEAR IN ORDER TO HELP  PRICES OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS THOUGHT THIS  WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ADDRESSED  BY ME. SO, IT'S A MESSAGE FROM A MOM NEXT.  <U.S. FARM REPORT IS BROUGH TO YOU BY KUBTOA'S M7 SERIES. LEARN  MORE ABOUT HTE LARGEST TRACTOR IN KUBOTA HISTORY AT KUBOTA.COM>

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELL, I'M NOT SURE IF JOHN JUST WANTED PART OF  THE WEEK OFF FOR HIS BIRTHDAY OR WHAT, BUT HE  PUNTED THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT TO ME, SO  I'M SWITCHING HATS JUST FOR THIS WEEK FROM HOST  TO COMMENTATOR TO SHARE MY OPINION.  WE RECEIVED THIS  EMAIL OF CONCERN FROM A  VIEWER AND HONESTLY, JOHN THOUGHT IT WOULD BE  BEST IF I ANSWER, SINCE I'M THE ONE WHO DECIDED TO  AIR IT. JEANNE OF ALTON, IOWA SAYS "I'M WRITING THIS NOTE  DUE TO A CONCERN I HAVE ABOUT SOME PHOTOS  WHICH WERE SHARED ON SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20TH'S  BORADCAST. THERE WERE SOME VIEWER PHOTOS THAT  INDICATED AN 8 YEAR OLD WAS DRIVING THE TRACTOR  PULLING A GRAIN CAR ALONGSIDE HIS FATHER  COMBINING. I AM A FARM WIFE AND NURSE PRACTIONER  AND HAVE A CONCERN ABOUT ANY CHILD YOUNER THAN  12 DRIVING THAT TYPE OF EQUIPMENT. THE REACTION  TIME AND ABSTRACT THINKING SKILLS ARE NOT  DEVELOPED AT THAT AGE. I DON'T APPRECAITE THE  ASSUMED ACCEPTANCE OF THIS PRACTICE. PLEASE  CONSIDER THIS IN THE FUTURE WHEN SHARING VIEWER  PHOTOS. " I HAVE YOUR ADDRESS, SO WE'LL MAKE SURE A MUG IS  ON THE WAY, JEANNE.  WHILE I APPRECIATE YOUR CONCERN AND SAFETY  SHOULD BE THE TOP PRIORITY ON FARMS ACROSS THIS GREAT COUNTRY, I HONESTLY DIDN'T THINK TWICE  ABOUT AIRING IT. WE AIRED A SIMILAR PICTURE EARLIER  THIS FALL, AND IT WAS A FAMILY I PERSONALLY KNOW.  I DIDN'T THINK TWICE ABOUT AIRING THE PICTURE  BECASE I VIEWED IT AS REFRESHING YOUNG KIDS ARE  PUTTING IN SUCH HARD WORK.  BUT THE BOTTOMLINE IS, IT'S ULTIMATELY THEIR  PARENTS' DECISIONS ON WHAT THEY LET THEIR KIDS  DO ON THE FARM.  IN TWO SHORT YEARS, I'VE QUICKLY LEARNED BEING A  PARENT IS THE MOST DIFFICULT JOB OUT THERE  BECAUSE SOMEONE IS ALWAYS GOING TO VIEW  WHATEVER YOU'RE DOING AS WRONG.  YOU KNOW  YOUR DECISIONS AND HOW YOU RAISE YOUR CHILD  WILL HAVE LIFE-LONG IMPACTS, SO YOU JUST PRAY THE  DECISIONS YOU MAKE WILL HELP MOLD YOUR CHILDREN  INTO CAPABLE AND DRIVEN INDIVIDUALS WHO WILL  THRIVE IN THE WORLD.  YOU JUST DO THE BEST YOU CAN AND HOPE THAT YOUR  CHILDREN WILL BE CAPABLE ADULTS WHO ADD TO  SOCIETY. THAT'S WHY APPLAUD ALL THOSE MOMS OUT THERE  ENCOURAGING THEIR KDIS TO WORK AT SUCH A YOUNG  AGE...NOW MAYBE DRIVING A LARGE PIECE OF  EQUIPMENT IS VIEWED AS EXCESSIVE IN SOME  PEOPLE'S EYES, BUT WHETHER IT'S PICKING UP ROCKS  IN THE FIELD, OR HELPING WITH BIGGER TASKS, THOSE  ARE LIFE LESSONS THAT ARE BECOMING MORE AND  MORE RARE.   I CONSTANTLY HEAR COMPLAINTS BOTH IN AND  OUTSIDE OF AG ABOUT MILLENIALS AND HOW IT'S A  GENERATION THAT DOESN'T WANT TO WORK,  HAS A  HARD TIME THINKING ON THEIR OWN AND ARE JUST  PLAIN LAZY. WHILE THIS IS A HUGE GENERALIZATION,  SOME ARGUE IT'S BECAUSE OF HOW THE MILLENIAL  GENERATION, MY GENERAION, IS BEING RIASED.  I APPLAUD THE FACT THAT THESE KIDS WANT TO WORK.  WHILE PLENTY OF YOUTH ARE SITTING INSIDE PLAYING  HOURS UPON HOURS OF VIDEO GAMES OR GLUED TO  YOUTUBE VIDEOS, WE HAVE FARM KIDS THAT NOT ONLY  ARE WILLING TO WORK, BUT WANT TO DO SO.  SO DRIVING A COMBINE OR TRACTOR AT SUCH A YOUNG  AGE, IS IT RIGHT OR WRONG AND BY  SHOWING IT AM I  PROMOTING IT? I DON'T HAVE THE ANSWER. ALL I KNOW  IS WHAT WORK YOU LET YOUR KIDS DO ON THE FARM  AND HOW YOU PARENT IS UP TO YOU.  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS THIS WEEK,  YOU CAN SEND THOSE TO ME VIA EMAIL AT MAILBAG AT  U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM, OR SEND A NOTE ON  FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.STAY WITH US, BAXTER BLACK JOINS US NEXT. 

BAXTER BLACK
IT'S TIME NOW TO TAKE A TRIP OUT WEST AND VISIT  OUR FAVORITE COWBOY POET, BAXTER BLACK.  TIMBER AND JESSE AGREED TOGETHER FROM WILD CATTLE OR NIGHT GRAIZIN  IN A LOCAL FARMERS' COTTON FIELDS TO COMPLICATE THINGS THE COWS  ONLY CAME AT NIGHT WHICH ELIMINATED USING HORSES ON THEIR PLAN  INVOLVED A TRANQUILIZER GUN OUR BOYS ARRIVED LOADED FOR BEAR  JESSE HAD TAPED A FLASHLIGHT TO HIS DART GUN AND TIMBOR CARRIED A  TIE DOWN A ROPE A FLASHLIGHT AND WAS WEARING A MINER'S HELMET  COMPLETE WITH A HEADLAMP WELL AFTER TWO MISSES JESSE FIRED IT  ACROSS RED BULL AND HIT HIM THE BULL BEGAN TO WOBBLE WHEN HE  DROPPED TO THE GROUNG TIMBER WAS ON HIM LIKE A COON DOG ON A  HAM SANDWICH HE ROLLED THE BALL SIDEWAYS AND HOG TIED HIM.   WELL THE BULL BEGAN TO STRUGGLE AND PUSHED BACK AND PUSHED  BACK A TIMBER TRIED TO HOLD HIS GROUND GAME SURELY THE  TRANQUILIZER WILL SOON TAKE AFFECT BUT THE OPPOSITE SEEMED TO BE  HAPPENING THE BULL WAS WAKING. TIMBER WAS WACKING HIM WITH HIS  FLASHLIGHT HIS MINER'S LAMP BOUNCING CRAZILY IN THE DARK DISTANCE  ALL JESSIE COULD SEE WERE TWO BEAMS OF LIGHT LIKE OBI WON KENOBI  AND SLIM  SKYWALKER GOING AT WITH LIGHT SABRES WELL THE BULL  TUMBLED TO HIS FEET WITH TIMBER STILL DRAPED OVER HIS BACK AGAIN  JUST FROM JESSE'S POINT OF VIEW THEY APPEARED TO BE INEBRIATED  FRIENDS WHO HAD LOST THEIR CAR KEYS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WELL  TIMBER FELL OFF AND HIT THE GROUND WITH A THUD, THE FLASHLIGHT BROKE  BUT HE WAS STILL DRAGGING ALONG BEHIND ON THAT FOOT ROPE THE BULL  FINALLY STOPPED AND THEN TURNED AROUND HE SAW A WILD PREDATOR BEAST WITH ONE BRIGHT SHINING CYCLOPTIC EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF HIS  HEAD AND HE DID WHAT ANY NINE HUNDRED POUND KING OF THE HILL  TESTOSTERONE TORRO WOULD DO HE CHARGED WELL JESSE SAW IT ALL THE  ONE BEAM OF LIGHT HE DANCED AND BANGED AND FLIPPED AND FLEW IN  A FIRECRACKER BALLET UNTIL IT FINALLY LAY STILL SHINING ASKEW A LONE  BEACON IN THE NIGHT SKY JESSE RAN TO THE LIGHT, OVER HERE, SAID  TIMBER, TEN FEET AWAY. DID YOU SEE WHERE HE WENT? SOUTH SAID  JESSE, TOWARDS MEXICO GOOD SAID TIMBER MAYBE I'LL MEET UP WITH  HIM AGAIN SOMEDAY IN A TACO THIS IS BAXTER BLACK, FROM OUT THERE THANKS, BAXTER. AND IF YOU'D LIKE TO SEE MORE OF  HIS COMMENTARY, JUST VISIT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS THIS  WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES IS BROUGH TTO YOUB Y MACHINRERY PETE, THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOKLS, WERE'RE HEADING TO BUNKER HILL INDIANA TO CCHECK OUT THIS CLASSIC FARMALL BUILIT IN 1940S THIS WORKHOURSE WAS BUILT FOR FARMING AND HAD AN INTERSTINGFEATURE. JIM YUR SHARES HIS STORY OF THIS 1940 FARMALL BNTHIS IS A FARM ALL BN AND THEY STARTED PRODUCTION ON THIS IN 1940  AND ITS BASICALLY THE SAME AS A FARMALL B THE ACCEPT THE AXLES  ARE SHORTER SIX INCHES SHORTER AND THEY DEVELOPED IT BECAUSE  THEY NEEDED A TRACTOR IN THE VEGETABLE AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AND  SO THEY CAN FARM ROW CROPS WERE LESS THAN FORTY INCHES SPACING  AND SO THAT'S WHY IT WAS DEVELOPED ON THIS PARTICULAR ONE IS A  NINETEEN FORTY SEVEN IT'S GOT A SINGLE FRONT WHEEL WHICH IS  SOMEWHAT RARE TO FIND A BUT IT MADE AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE VIDEO  IT WOULD TURN AROUND ON ITSELF WHICH OTHER TRACTORS CANT DO THAT  THE BN CAME FROM A GENTLEMAN LIVED DOWN IN TIPTON COUNTY AND  HE HAD FOUNDED IN A DEALERSHIP AND HAD IT FOR A FEW YEARS AND  HE HAD ISSUES WITH HIS EYESIGHT AND HE DECIDED TO SELL ITS  TRACTORS BECAUSE HE COULDN'T SEE THEM AND DIDN'T WANT THEM.  AND SO I PUT OFF FOR A WHILE AND FINALLY WE COME TO AN AGREEMENT  AND I BOUGHT THE TRACTOR AND I TOLD HIM IF HE EVER WANTED THE  TRACTOR  BACK AND SELL BACK TO HIM FOR THE SAME PRICE.  I'VE TAKEN  IT TO CANTON TEXAS WHICH IS ABOUT NINE HUNDRED FIFTY MILES AWAY  FROM HERE AND SHOWN ON DOWN THERE TAKEN TO READ POWER AND  THE COUPLE DIFFERENT LAST YEAR WE TOOK IT TO MISSOURI AT RED POWER  UP THERE HOW FAST WILL IT GO? ON PROBABLY IN HIGH GEAR ABOUT TEN  MILE AN HOUR I HAD TO REWORK THE FRONT AXLE BECAUSE IT WAS BUILT  BACK WHEN THEY USED BUSHINGS  INSTEAD OF BARINGS AND HAD IT  TAKE IT TO THE FRONT END A MACHINE SHOP TO HAVE THAT REDONE IN  BUSHINGS PUT IN THAT'S THE ONLY THING THAT I'VE DONE TO THE TRACTOR. THANKS, GREG.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
WELL, OUR THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS  GO OUT TO ALL THE FOLKS IN GATLINBURG, TENNESEE  STILL DEALING WITH THE DESTRUCTION FROM THIS  WEEK'S WILDFIRE. THAT INCLUDES THE GATLINBURG  CHURCH OF CHRIST, DESTROYED BY FLAMES EARLIER  THIS WEEK.  THE GOOD NEWS IS ALL THEIR CHURCH MEMBERS ARE  SAFE. IT'S A FAIRLY NEW CONGREGATION, GETTING ITS START  IN 1958. AND IN 1964, THE FIRST SERVICE WAS HELD IN  THE CHURCH THAT BURNED DOWN THIS WEEK.  AGAIN, WE'RE THINKING OF ALL OF YOU IN GATLINBURG  THIS WEEK.  IF YOU HAVE A HOME CHURCH YOU WOULD LIKE TO  SUBMIT, SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON  THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM TEH FARM PHOTOS  ARE NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK FROM THE FARM WE HAVE SOME  COTTON PHOTOS TO SHARE.  OUR OWN BESTY JIBBEN WAS IN MARION COUNTY  SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEK WHERE HURRICANE  MATTHEW DESTROYED MUCH OF THE STATE'S CROPS.  ONE FARMER TOLD HER HE HAS A COMPLETE LOSS OF  THIS YEARS COTTON CROP DUE TO FLOODING. THAT STORM CAME JUST AS HARVEST WAS RAMPING-UP. AND COTTON HARVEST IS BEHIND IN TEXAS, BUT LOOK  AT THE WHITE BLANKET OF COTTON COVERING FIELDS  IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BARBARA MORGAN SNAPPED THESE PICTURES OF 5  LOCK BOLLS. SHE TELLS US RAIN IS SETTING BACK  HARVEST A LITTLE, BUT COOL SPRING WEATHER MEANT  THE CROP WAS DELAYED COMING UP. ON TOP OF THAT,  MANY GROWERS WAITED FOR A FREEZE, WHICH  ARRIVED 2 WEEKS LATE THIS YEAR, TO HARVEST THEIR  CROP.   AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK  YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO  JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK  TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND,  EVERYONE.  

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