USFR Weekly Recap - February 14, 2015, 2014, 2015, 2015

February 14, 2015 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON USFR
FEBRUARY 14-15, 2015

HEADLINES:
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS WEEKEND. THE BATTLE IN THE BEEF MARKET....HOW LOW COULD PRICES GO? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. DEBATE IS HEATING UP AROUND USDA'S CORN FOR ETHANOL NUMBERS...OUR ROUNDTABLES ARE FROM NATIONAL FARM MAHCINERY SHOW THIS WEEK. WHAT BETTER WAY TO CELEBRATE VALENTINE'S DAY THAN WITH A LOVE STORY FROM BAXTER BLACK. YOU'LL WANT TO SEE HIS HUMOROUS STORY, AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...
TPA:
NOW FOR MARKET-RELATED NEWS, DEMAND COULD GET A BOOST THIS YEAR IF KEY DEALS ARE PUSHED THROUGH. BUT THAT LARGELY DEPENDS ON GRANTING THE PRESIDENT TRADE PROMOTION AUTHORITY.
USDA REPORTS:
CORN USE RECEIVED A QUITE THE ADJSUTMENT IN USDA'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT RELEASED TUESDAY.  THE AGENCY SHOWS INCREASED CORN USED FOR ETHANOL BUMPED UP 75 MILLION BUSHELS. BUT THE BIG STORY IS SOUTH AMERICA.WHILE OFFICIALS DID TRIM THE BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION NUMBERS; THEY INCREASED THE ARGENTINE BEAN CROP UP TO 56 MILLION TONS. ACCORDING TO USDA METEOROLOGIST MARK BRUSBERG, THE WEATHER TELLS THAT STORY.
COTTON ACREAGE:
AFTER COTTON PRICES DROPPED TO A RECENT LOW OF $57 IN JANUARY, THE MARKET ISN'T CREATING A FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT FOR COTTON ACREAGE. THAT'S WHY THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL PROJECTS ACRES TO DROP MORE THAN 14 PERCENT THIS YEAR TO 9 POINT 4 MILLION ACRES.THE WEST IS CARRYING MOST OF THAT DROP, WHERE BASED ON SURVEYS, PRODUCERS SAY THEY INTEND TO PLANT 46 PERCENT FEWER ACRES OF UPLAND COTTON.SOME OF THOSE GROWERS ARE OPTING FOR MORE WHEAT THIS YEAR. N-C-C'S GARY ADAMS SAYS IT'S STILL A DEMAND-DRIVEN MARKET.
PITCH TO MIKE:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, IT'S BEEN QUITE THE CHANGE THIS WEEK MUCH COLDER.
TEASE ONE:
THANKS, MIKE. WE HAVE SO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE LATEST USDA REPORT. MIKE NORTH, BOB UTTERBACK AND MATT BENNETT JOIN ME FROM THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW RIGHT AFTER THE BREAK.
JOHNS WORLD PITCH:
IN LAST WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE TRIED TO EXPLORE THE VARIOUS OPTIONS WITH THE NEW FARM BILL. BUT WHAT'S THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAMS? JOHN PHIPPS WEIGHS IN.
JOHN’S WORLD:
LIKE SOPHOMORES WITH A TERM PAPER, MANY OF US ARE WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE DECISIONS ON THE FARM PROGRAM. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE FUN AT THE FSA THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. I'VE ALREADY CHIPPED IN MY TWO CENTS ABOUT THE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO PICK THE ABSOLUTE RIGHT ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION. I HAVE NOTED THAT MANY AG ECONOMISTS AND MEDIA EXPERTS HAVE BEGUN TO HEDGE THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS WITH ADVICE TO PUT SOME FARMS IN THIS PROGRAM AND OTHERS IN THAT PROGRAM - JUST IN CASE. THIS SUGGESTS TO ME THIS FARM PROGRAM PROBABLY WON'T BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE FUTURE OF U-S AGRICULTURE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS A CLEAR FINISH LINE. ONCE WE'VE SIGNED UP, WE CAN START DEALING WITH MORE URGENT ISSUES. NUMBER ONE ON MY LIST IS THE FACT WE HAVE MANAGED TO BECOME A VERY HIGH IF NOT THE HIGHEST COST PRODUCERS OF COMMODITIES. JUST LIKE HIGH COST FARMERS ARE FACING STRONG HEADWINDS, GLOBAL COMPETITION PRESENTS A REAL CHALLENGE TO AMERICAN AGRICULTURE, ESPECIALLY AS A STRONG CURRENCY MAKES OUR PRODUCTS MORE EXPENSIVE FOR WORLD CONSUMERS. WE CANNOT GROW CORN FOR THREE DOLLARS. PERIOD…WHILE MANY OF US REMEMBER CELEBRATING FINALLY GETTING TO THREE DOLLARS, IT WAS WITH A LAUGHABLY LOWER COST OF PRODUCTION. IT'S PRETTY EASY TO GO BACK TO FIND THE INPUT EXPENSE NUMBERS FROM THAT ERA. THE SAME GOES FOR OTHER COMMODITIES - WE'RE ON AN ECONOMICALLY UNSUSTAINABLE TRAJECTORY.SLASHING THE BUDGET IS WRETCHEDLY HARD AND INVOLVES EXTREMELY RISKY DECISIONS. I DON'T SEE EASY TIMES AHEAD AS WE TRY TO REGAIN OUR GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE POSITION. THE NEXT FEW YEARS, AT LEAST IN THE GRAIN SECTOR, COULD BE A TEST OF OUR CLAIMS TO BE THE BEST FARMERS IN THE WORLD. WE COULD DISCOVER RIGHT NOW AT LEAST, WE ARE JUST THE MOST EXPENSIVE FARMERS.
HEADLINES:
THANKS, JOHN. AFTER THE BULLS LEAD THE CATTLE MARKET IN 2014, PRICES HAVE SOFTENED A BIT. BUT IS THAT THE START OF A NEW TREND? WE'LL EXPLORE IN OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.
NET FARM INCOME:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...NO SURPRISE HERE - BUT WITH LOW GRAIN PRICES, ROW-CROP PRODUCERS WILL SEE THEIR INCOME DECLINE THIS YEAR, AND IT'S A HUGE HIT.
AEM:
THE LOWER INCOME FOR GRAIN PRODUCERS OFTEN SPILLS OVER TO FARM EQUIPMENT SALES.  THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS SAYS IN ITS MONTHLY REPORT THAT SALES OF FOUR-WHEEL DRIVE TRACTORS WERE DOWN 65-PERCENT LAST MONTH FROM A YEAR AGO. COMBINE SALES WERE DOWN 47-PERCENT. BUT SALES ON SMALLER TRACTORS ARE UP.
NFMS EQUIPMENT SALES:
SPEAKING OF SMALLER EQUIPMENT, THE LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING IN MACHINERY SALES. THAT WAS APPARENT THIS YEAR AT THE NATIONAL FARM MAHCINERY SHOW IN LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY. WITH DEPRESSED BUYING INTEREST IN LARGER PIECES, INCLUDING COMBINES, SMALLER EQUIPMENT SALES HAVE FILLED IN THE GAP, KEEPING OVERALL TRACTOR SALES IN THE GREEN. THAT'S BEING CARRIED BY THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR.
ENGAGED FARMERS:
U-S-D-A SAYS IT MAY CUT OFF FARM SUBSIDIES TO THOSE WHO DON'T ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN FARMING. THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAMS CAME UNDER FIRE FOR THE UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN COST.BUT U-S-D-A HAS FOUND ONE WAY TO POSSIBLY SAVE... NOT GIVING PAYMENTS TO WEALTHY EXECUTIVES, CELEBRITIES AND OTHERS WHO CURRENTLY GET SUBSIDIES, BUT NEVER SET FOOT ON A FARM. THAT INCLUDES MICROSOFT CO-FOUNDER PAUL ALLEN.  IT ALL REVOLVES AROUND THE TOPIC OF WHO'S ACTIVIELY ENGAGED IN FARMING. IT WAS SOMETHING CONGRESS WAS SUPPOSED TO DECIDE, BUT PUNTED IT TO USDA. VILSACK SAYS THEY PLAN TO RELEASE THEIR PROPOSED PLAN SOON.
WEATHER PITCH:
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. MIKE, THE EAST IS JUST GETTING POUNDED WITH SNOW. ANY RELIEF THE NEXT MONTH?
WEATHER:
DON'T REALLY KNOW I CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND WHEN YOU SE THE PATTERN ON THE JETSTREAM HERE, WELL IT COULD LAST EVEN LONGER THAN THAT. YOU CAN SEE THE COLD AIR JUST POUNDING INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS ONE FARTHER WEST. AND THEN WE KIND OF GO ZONAL FOR THE MIDDLE SECTIONS. IT STILL ARTIC AIR COMING SOUTH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, BUT WHEN YOU GET THIS SOUTHERN FLOW, THAT MEANS YOU HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING EASTWARD. IT PICKS UP GULF MOISTURE AND IF ANY STORMS HEAD UP THE EAST COAST, GUESS WHAT, THAT'S MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST. SO , THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN HERE IN A BOUT A WEEK. HERE'S MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK, I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. I KNOW WE'VE BEEN WRONG ON OUR WINTER OUTLOOK IN THEW WESTERN PLAINS, BUT I DO THINK THE COLD IS FINALLY COMING TO YOU FOLKS. ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION…WITH THAT STORMY PATTER THAT I'VE SHOWED SETTING UP I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR LARGE TRACKS OF THE COUNTRY ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS, TYNE.
FARM JOURNAL REPORT:
AFTER A RED HOT 2014, CATTLE PRICES HAVE COOLED TO START THE YEAR. FEEDER CATTLE FUTURES TRADED BELOW THE 200 DOLLAR PER HUNDRED MARK THIS WEEK. MARCH CONTRACTS ON A STEADY DECLINE SINCE MID-NOVEMBER. LAST WEEK, DURING THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION IN SAN ANTONIO TEXAS, AGDAY HOST CLINTON GRIFFITHS TALKED WITH A BROAD CROSS SECTION OF THE INDUSTRY ABOUT WHAT'S MOVING MARKETS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.
FARM JOURNAL REPORT TAG:
THANKS CLINTON. OBVIOUSLY AN IMPROVING DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS HELPING SPEED REBUILDING. HOWEVER, MARKETING EXPERTS IN THE REGION SAY THAT COULD QUICKLY STOP IF RAINS SHUT OFF AND DROUGHT RETURNS THIS YEAR.
WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS…
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
RECENTLY I HOSTED A COUPLE TAX EXPERTS TO TRY AND EXPLAIN THE TAX IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW HEALTHCARE REFORM. WELL, WE HAD A VIEWER THAT THOUGHT THE CONVERSATION WAS A BIT ONE-SIDED. JOHN PHIPPS IS HERE TO DISCUSS.
TEASE:
THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, EMAIL THAT TO US OR CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL MEDIA.  WHEN WE COME BACK, BAXTER HAS A PECULIAR MESSAGE ON THIS VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND.
BAXTER BLACK:
IN HONOR OF VALENTINE'S DAY THIS WEEKEND, BAXTER BLACK HAS A DIFFERENT KIND OF LOVE STORY...
TRACTOR TALES:
WELCOME BACK! WE'RE TALKIN' TRACTORS NOW AND AL, I HEAR WE'VE GOT A CLASSIC ALLIS THIS WEEK? "THAT'S CORRECT TYNE. WE ARE BACK IN MINNESOTA WITH OUR FRIENDS WHO HAVE AN INCREDIBLE COLLECTION." LIKE THIS D21 ALLIS-CHALMERS STRAIGHT FROM THE FLEECE FAMILY FARM. WHEN THEY BOUGHT THE TRACTOR THEY ENDED UP WITH MORE THAN THEY BARGAINED FOR."
CHURCH SALUTE:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE NORWEGIAN EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN CHURCH OF DAKOTA TERRITRY. IT WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE LATE 1860S BY NORWEGIAN SETTLERS. THEIR FIRST CHURCH HOME WAS COMPLETED IN 1871 AND THEN IN 1909, THEY STARTED BUILDING THER CURRENT LOCATION. CELEBRATING THEIR 150TH ANNIVERSARY THIS YEAR, THEY SAY THEY ARE PROUD OF THEIR CONTINUOUS SERVICES. EVEN SOME OF THE CURRENT MEMBERS HAVE TIES BACK TO THEIR FOUNDING MEMBERS.
THANKS TO BECKY AGA FOR SHARING THEIR STORY.
GOODBYE:
FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.

 

 

 

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