USFR Weekly Recap - February 27-28, 2016

February 27, 2016 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
FEB. 27-28, 2016
OPENING HEADLINES:

FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT HOUR.
BRACE YOURSELF FOR ANOTHER TRYING YEAR... USDA IS OUT WITH ITS LATEST PRICE OUTLOOK AT MARGINS COULD STAY SLIM FOR BOTH CROPS AND LIVESTOCK.  USDA REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RURAL  ECONOMY..  < WE'RE NOW SEEING LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY RATES>  THE AG SECRETARY FACES CONGRESS, DEFENDING  THE CURRENT STATE.   CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AVACADO HARVEST IN CALIFORNIA...  <3:05 THE GUYS HAVE TO CLIMB UP AND DOWN THE HILLS SO IT'S REALLY HARD WORK AND IT'S REALLY TIRING.>  WE'LL SHOW YOU WHY THIS WORK ISN'T FOR THE WEARY. THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.   AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...   USDA FORECASTS COMMODITY DROPS:
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS. U-S FARMERS  COULD BE FACING THE LOWEST  COMMODITY PRICES IN A DECADE.  THE AG DEPARTMENT OUT WITH ITS PRICE FORECAST  FOR THE 2016/2017 MARKETING YEAR. USDA RELEASING ITS PRICE FORECAST FOR 2016 DURING ITS AG OUTLOOK FORUM GOING ON RIGHT NOW.  USDA CHIEF ECONOMIST ROBERT JOHANSSON SAYS HE PROJECTS SOYBEANS TO DROP TO $8.50 A BUSHEL.  THAT'S 30 CENTS LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. CORN IS PEGGED AT $3.45. THAT'S A 15 CENT DROP FROM 2015. AND THE PRICE FORECAST FOR WHEAT $4.20.   OVER PRODUCTION FACTOR IN PRICE DROP:
THOSE PRICES ARE BASED ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS, INCLUDING THE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL PRODUCTION CONTINUING TO OUTPACE CONSUMPTION.   MEANWHILE, USDA ALSO SAYING WHEAT ACRES WILL  HIT THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 46 YEARS.  JOHANNSON PROJECTS LOWER COMMODITY PRICES TO  IDLE SOME LAND, WITH A MAJOR CUT TO WHEAT.  WITH A 5 PERCENT CUT TO SPRING WHEAT, JOHANSSEN THINKS ALL WHEAT ACRES WILL BE DOWN 3 POINT 6  MILLION FROM LAST YEAR.   PROTEIN PRODUCTION:
USDA ALSO THINKS WE COULD SEE RECORD PRODUCTION ON THE LIVESTOCK SIDE. THE AGENCY CALLING FOR NEARLY 212 BILLION POUNDS OF MILK. WITH A TOTAL OF 97 POINT 4 BILLION POUNDS OF 
MEAT...INCLUDING NEW RECORDS FOR BOTH PORK (25 BILLION) AND POULTRY (41 BILLION).  OIL OVERSUPPLY CONTINUES: AS THE OIL INDUSTRY SUFFOCATES FROM  OVERSUPPLY, THERE'S NO END IN SIGHT.  SAUDI ARABIA'S PETROLEUM MINISTER SQUASHED HOPES OF MAJOR OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES CUTTING PRODUCTION.  PRICES KEEP DROPPING:
HE TOLD ENERGY EXECUTIVES THIS WEEK THAT THERE'S NO SENSE IN WASTING TIME SEEKING PRODUCT CUTS BECAUSE THAT WON'T HAPPEN.  THE NEWS PUT FURTHER PRESSURE ON OIL PRICES, PUSHING WES TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE   IMMEDIATELY DOWN 4 PERCENT.   NATURAL GAS CRASHED TO A 17-YEAR LOW THIS WEEK. THE FALL ON THURSDAY CAME AFTER THE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINSTRATION SHOWED GAS STOCKPILES ARE 577 BILLION CUBIC FEET HIGHER THAN THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE.  WEAKER DEMAND FROM HIGHER THAN NORMAL  TEMPERATURES ALSO PRESSURING PRICES.   THOSE LOWER OIL PRICES ARE PINCHING COMPANY  PROFITS, INCLUDING BASF.  THE WORLD'S LARGEST  CHEMICALS COMPANY -- ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK A 76 PERCENT DECLINE IN NET PROFITS DURING THE  FOURTH QUARTER, MAINLY DUE TO SPUTTERING EARNING IN ITS OIL AND GAS SECTORS.    OIL STAFF GETTING CUT:
AS A RESULT, BASF SAYS ITS CUTTING STAFF-- INCLUDING HALF OF ITS BIOTECH AND R&D EMPLOYEES.  OUT OF THE 350 JOBS TERMINATED, 140 ARE FROM  NORTH AMERICA AND 180 IN EUROPE.   BASF SAYS THE RESTRUCTURING WILL BE COMPLETED  BY THE END OF THIS YEAR.   NATIONAL WEATHER:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, A MAJOR WINTERSTORM  AND TORNADOES THIS WEEK.  WHAT BIG WEATHER EVENTS SHOULD WE BE WATCHING  NEXT WEEK?    BACK IN NEXT HALF WITH A LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK  THANKS, MIKE.   PITCH TO ROUNDTABLES:
WE HAVE TWO GUESTS IN THIS WEEK TO TALK  MARKETS. BRYAN DOHERTY, BRIAN ROACH   JOIN ME NEXT.   <YOU'RE WATCHING U.S. FARM REPORT WITH HOST TYNE MORGAN, COMMENTATOR JOHN PHIPPS,   AGRIBUSINESS DIRECTOR AL PELL AND METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. U.S. FARM REPORT.   TRUSTED. TIMELY. TRADITION.>   JOHN’S WORLD:
ALL OF US SUGGEST ISSUES TO BAT AROUND, BUT I'VE NOTICED WE ALMOST ALWAYS HAVE SOME  CONTENTIOUS TOPIC ABOUT NUTRITION AND FOOD.  FROM GMOS TO GLUTEN TO RED MEAT, SOME RECENT BIT OF NEWS WILL START US DOWN ONE OF THOSE ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR CONVERSATIONS. LIKE POLITICS AND RELIGION, NUTRITION SEEMS TO BE  ANOTHER SEGMENT OF HUMAN KNOWLEDGE WITH   ENORMOUS GRAY AREAS AND SHIFTING BELIEFS. THERE  ARE GOOD REASONS WHY. 

TEASE:
NEXT, WE'RE OFF TO CALIFORNIA FOR AN INSIDE LOOK  AT AVOCADO SEASON, AND WHY ARE TRYING TO HARVEST EARLY TO BEAT THE SUPPLY RUSH. 
SECOND HALF OF THE SHOW OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.   WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE IN STORE FOR YOU OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR.  CALIFORNIA IS RIPE FOR AVACADO HARVEST. WE'LL HEAD TO THE MOUNTAINSIDE WHERE ONE FAMILY IS FINDING A NICHE MARKET TO OPEN UP NEW DOORS FOR  DEMAND.  IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, JOHN PHIPPS CONNECTS THE DOT BETWEEN FUEL PRICES AND COMMODITY PRICES.  AND BAXTER BLACK HAS A STORY ABOUT GOOD DEEDS.  

LATEST FARM BILL WILL HELP AG INDUSTRY THROUGH TOUGH TIMES:
BORROWING EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT SAFETY NET WILL HELP :
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, EVEN THOUGH USDA THINKS FARM INCOME WILL BE 56 PERCENT LOWER THIS YEAR THAN WHAT WE SAW IN 2013, AG SECRETARY TOM  VILSACK SAYS WE AREN'T IN A FARM CRISIS LIKE THE 1980S.   THE SECRETARY TESTIFYING IN FRONT OF THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY.  VISLACK SAYS HE EXPECTS TO SEE INCREASED  BORROWING THIS YEAR.  BUT THE SAFETY NET-- IN PLACE FROM THE LATEST FARM BILL-- IS WORKING THE WAY IT WAS INTENDED,   INCLUDING $5 POINT 2 BILLION DOLLARS IN PAYMENTS TO 900 THOUSAND PRODUCERS LAST YEAR.  VILSACK SAYS THE RURAL ECONOMY IS SURVIVING IN PART BECAUSE OF DIVERSIFICATION SUPPORTED  IN  THE LATEST FARM BILL.

TPP:
HE RECOGNIZES STRESS IN SOME COMMODITY AREAS  BUT FOCUSED ON INCREASING DEMAND, INCLUDING THROUGH TPP SPEAKIKNG OF T-P-P, THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU  COMING OUT WITH STRONG SUPPORT OF THE DEAL.   THIS WEEK, FARM BUREAU SAID THE TRADE PACT COULD BOOST ANNUAL NET FARM INCOME IN THE U-S BY $4.4 BILLION.   THE REPORT FORECASTING FARM-PRICE INCREASES FOR CORN OF FIVE CENTS PER BUSHEL,  A 12 CENT PER BUSHEL INCREASE FOR SOYBEANS,  TWO-CENTS PER BUSHEL INCREASE FOR WHEAT AND 16 CENTS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT INCREASE FOR RICE. 
AFBF EXPECTS BEEF PRICE INCREASE:
AFBF ALSO PREDICTING PRICE INCREASES FOR BEEF AT $2.66 PER HUNDREDWEIGHT,  A $2.45 INCREASE FOR PORK AND A $1.45 INCREASE FOR POULTRY.   MILK ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE 21 CENTS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT.  
USDA SUMMARY OF FARM LAND:
WITH THE SPIRAL IN U-S COMMODITY PRICES, USDA IS  SAYING IT'S IMPACTING THE NUMBER OF FARMS. USDA RELEASING ITS FARMS AND LAND IN F ARMS 2015 SUMMARY SHOWING 8 THOUSAND FEWER FARMS IN 2015 THAN THE PREVIOUS YEAR. USDA ALSO SHOWED A MILLION LESS ACRES OF   FARMLAND.   BUT THE SIZE OF AN AVERAGE FARM IS GETTING LARGER. USDA SAYS THE AVERAGE FARM SIZE IS 3  ACRES BIGGER THAN THE 441 ACRES IN 2014.  

SOME STATES EXPERIENCE FARM REDUCTION:
A TOTAL OF 9 STATES SHOWED FARMLAND REDUCTIONS OF AT LEAST A HUNDRED-THOUSAND ACRES, INCLUDING ALABAMA, COLORADO, GEORGIA, OKLAHOMA AND  NORTH DAKOTA.  

AVIAN FLU UPDATE:
AN UPDATE TO THE JANUARY AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.   OFFICIALS LIFTED THE CONTROL AREA FOR AVIAN FLU THIS WEEK, AS OFFICIALS FOUND NO NEW POSITIVE TESTS SINCE JANUARY 16.  AFTER FINDING THE H-7 STRAIN, APHIS CONDUCTED AGGRESSIVE TESTING IN A 10 KILOMETER CONTROL AREA.  IN THE FACE OF AN OUTBREAK, PREPAREDNESS CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE:
SPEAKING OF AVIAN FLU, VISLACK PRESSED ON USDA'S  PREPAREDNESS FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF AVIAN FLU.  REPRESENTATIVE STEVE KING OF IOWA ASKING  VILSACK WHAT CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN DISPOSING   EGG LAYERS HIT WITH AVIAN FLU, DUE TO THE HIGH  NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT CAN OCCUR, UP TO 5 MILLION  BIRDS ON JUST ONE FARM.   KING SAYS THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN QUICKLY, AND WASN'T HANDLED AS EFFECTIVELY AS THE TURKEY   SIDE.  DISPOSAL PART OF BEING BETTER PREPARED:
<WE WANT TO DO IT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF TIME, SO WE WANT TO SPEED UP THE PROCESS, THEN   SECONDLY, WE WANT TO PREPOSITION ASSETS IN KNOWING WHETHER LANDFILLS ARE AVAILABLE, OR  OTHER DISPOSABLE METHODS ON THE FARM, WHICH WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO USE IN STATES WHERE WE THINK THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO REEMERGE. SO WE ARE BETTER PREPARED TODAY THAN WHERE WE WERE WHEN THIS HIT LAST YEAR.>
KING ALSO MAKING IT CLEAR THAT THE INDEMNITY PAYMENTS ARE BASED ON OUTDATED DATA.  
EPA TO RELEASE R-F-S GUIDELINES BY MARCH 31:
EPA SAYS IT WILL RELEASE R-F-S GUIDELINES ON TIME THIS YEAR.   EPA TOLD THE SENATE ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEE THAT THE AGENCY HATES MISSING DEADLINES.  THIS WAS DURING A HEARING ON WEDNESDAY.  EPA SAYS, QUOTE, WE ARE COMMITTEED TO HAVING HTIS PROGRAM BACK ON TRACK AND KEEP IT THERE.   END QUOTE.   THE LAW STATES THE  2017 VOLUME REQUIREMENTS SHOULD BE PROPOSED BY MARCH 31 OF THIS YEAR, AND FINALIZED BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. 
DEMAND FOR ALMONDS:

AS ALMOND PRICES FADE OFF OF THEIR RECORD HIGHS, ALMOND DEMAND COULD PICK BACK UP.  AGRI MONEY REPORTING THE LOWER PRICES HELPING TO STIMULATE DEMAND IN PRICE SENSITVE MARKTS, LIKE INDIA, CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST.  SHIPMENTS OUT OF CALIFORNIA STARTED THE YEAR 12 PERCENT HIGHER.  

PITCH TO COMMODITY CLASSIC:
IF YOU'RE HEADING TO COMMODITY CLASSIC NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE A COUPLE WAYS TO JOIN US   THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  THURSDAY, AGDAY HOST CLINTON GRIFFITHS WILL BE AT THE DEKALB BOOTH FROM ONE TO TWO P.M.   TALKING WITH KEN FERRIE ABOUT GROWING YIELDS IN AN ERA OF LOW PRICES.  ON FRIDAY, OUR PARTNERS AT AGRITALK WILL START  AROUND 6- A.M. WITH A TAPING OF THEIR FRIDAY FREE FOR ALL.  THEN, AT 7 A.M., WE'LL KICK OFF OUR MARKETING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION WITH MARK GOLD, CHIP   FLORY AND TED SEIFRIED. JOHN PHIPPS AND I WILL HOST THAT EVENT.  THEN LATER THAT DAY, I'LL JOIN MACHINERY PETE--  GREG PETERSON  AT THE DEKALB BOOTH FOR A  DISCUSSION ON THE FARM MACHINERY MARKET.  WE KNOW IT'S A BUSY WEEK FOR EVERYONE, BUT WE HOPE YOU CAN JOIN US AT SOME POINT, EVEN IF IT'S JUST TO SAY HELLO.  

NATIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. MIKE, I'M EAGER TO SEE YOUR 90 DAY OUTLOOK. DO YOU THINK WE'LL TURN DRIER?   GUACAMOLE FEEDS MARCH MADNESS:
THANKS, MIKE. THE SUPER BOWL IS OVER, AND MARCH MADNESS IS SET TO BEGIN. INCREASINGLY THE AMERICAN SNACK TRAY IS SEEING A DASH OF GREEN-- AVOCADOS AND GUACAMOLE CONTINUE TO FIND NEW WAYS INTO THE AMERICAN DIET.  THE SUPER BOWL ALONE SAW CONSUMPTION OF NEARLY 140 MILLION POUNDS OF THE GREEN FRUIT--   AND THAT'S UP 13 PERCENT COMPARED TO 2015. 
CALIFORNIA PREPARES SNACK FOR SEND OFF:
AS CLINTON GRIFFITHS REPORTS, WHILE MUCH OF THOSE EARLY AVOCADOS COME FROM MEXICO--SOME CALIFORNIA GROWERS ARE ALSO PICKING FOR A LATE WINTER ARRIVAL.
THE DEL REY AVOCADO COMPANY IN FALLBROOK CALIFORNIA... IS PACKING IN A HURRY. 
400 MILLION POUNDS OF AVOCADO EXPECTED TO BE PRODUCED IN CALIFORNIA DURING 2016:
THE CALIFORNIA AVOCADO COMMISSION FORECASTS  NEARLY 400 MILLION POUNDS OF CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS WILL BE HARVESTED IN 2016. A MARKET THAT'S SEEN GROWING COMPETITION FROM MEXICO IN RECENT YEARS. 
PITCH TO JOHN:
JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US TO DISCUSS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN FUEL AND COMMODITY PRICES. JOHN.   JOHN’S WORLD:
A GREAT QUESTION FROM DAVE AND PEGGY PETTIS IN  CHENEY, WASHINGTON:  TALKED ABOUT HOW THE FALLING FUEL PRICES HARMED THE FARM MARKET. I MIGHT AGREE   THAT IT HAS AN IMPACT ON THE CORN BUT IT SURELY HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON OTHER GRAINS. OUR COST OF PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT HAS DROPPED A GREAT DEAL. I WOULD THINK THAT ITS IMPACT ON CORN SHOULDN'T BE AS LARGE AS THOUGHT. FOR EXAMPLE,  
TEASE:
THANKS, JOHN. AND NEXT WEEK, JOHN AND I WILL RECORD OUR ENTIRE SHOW FROM COMMODITY   CLASSIC. SO, TUNE IN NEXT WEEK FOR THAT. 
UP NEXT, BAXTER BLACK.  
BAXTER BLACK:
THERE'S NO DOUBT RURAL AMERICA IS FULL OF GOOD  PEOPLE. BUT SOMETIMES, GOOD DEEDS CAN BACKFIRE.   JUST ASK BAXTER BLACK.   YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF BAXTER'S HUMOR ONLINE, AT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.  TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, AL PELL IS HERE WITH  TRACTOR  TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE  STAY WITH US. 
TRACTOR TALES: WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. IN TRACTOR TALES, WE'RE OFF TO THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN FOR A  FAVORITE CLASSIC IRON FROM HAROLD MCTAGGART   THIS MASSEY-HARRIS WORKED DURING THE 2ND WORLD  WAR.  AND WHEN HAROLD FOUND IT A FEW YEARS AGO,  IT LOOKED LIKE IT HAD BEEN THROUGH A WAR.  SO, WITH A LITTLE T-L-C, HE BROUGHT THIS CLASSIC BACKTO LIFE!    THIS IS A MASSEY HARRIS 22 IS THE SERIES. 
CHURCH SALUTE:
THIS WEEK, WE'RE HIGHLIGHTING THE BETHLEHEM  CHRISTIAN CHURCH, LOCATED IN FLORIS, IOWA.   STARTED IN 1865 IN A LOG CABIN, THE CHURCH  MAINTAINS ITS COUNTRY ROOTS TODAY. IN FACT, MOST  OF THE IMPROVEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE YEARS  WERE PAID FOR BY CROPS RAISED BY MEMBERS.
TEASE:
STAY WITH US -   TYNE IS BACK WITH CROPWATCH NEXT.   U.S. FARM REPROT BROUGHT TO YOU BY CASE IH. TO  LEARN MORE, VISIT CASEIH.COM/EFFICIENT POWER. 
CROP WATCH:
MIKE, JUST WHEN I THOUGHT WINTER WAS ALMOST  OVER, IT'S JUST FEBRUARY. I DON'T CARE. IT SHOULD BE OVER BY NOW.  OKAY, MOTHER NATURE HIT ME IN THE FACE WITH ANOTHER BLIZZARD.....MOTHER NATURE HITS US WITH A BLIZZARD  THIS WEEK. THIS WAS THE CALM AFTER HTE STORM.  
CLOSING:
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING BE SURE TO JOIN US NEXT WEEK AS WE'LL ACTUALLY RECORD OUR ENTIRE SHOW FROM NEW ORLEANS. SO THAT SOUNDS LIKE FUN. I'LL BRAG ABOUT THE WEATHER. DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT. WELL HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.  
 
 

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