USFR Weekly Recap - January 21-22, 2017

January 22, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 21-22, 2017

HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. THERE'S A NEW HEAD OF THE USDA IN TOWN. WE'LL  INTRODUCE YOU TO THE PRESIDENT'S PICK FOR AG  SECRETARY.  AS THE DAIRY HERDS EXPAND, HOLSTEIN PRICES  AREN'T HOLDING UP... <"THERE IS A BIGGER DISCOUNT WITH HOLSTEINS TODA> OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT LOOKS AT WHY. PLANTER PRICES ARE SURPRISING MACHINERY PETE.  <"AT THE END OF 2016, TYNE, WE SAW THE USED FVALUE OF AUCTION PRICES WERE VERY SOLID> WE'RE OFF TO KENTUCKY WITH MACHINERY PETE.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <WE'RE NOT GROWING LIKE WE USED TO>  <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

SOYBEAN RALLY
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...HEAVY RAINS IN ARGENTINA SENDING SOYBEAN  PRICES TO FRESH 6 MONTH HIGHS.  BOTH SOYBEANS AND CORN RALLYING THIS WEEK AS  REPORTS FLOODING IN CENTRAL ARGENTINA IS  SUFFOCATING A PORTION OF THE CROP THIS YEAR. IT'S THE OPPOSITE STORY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE DRY  WEATHER IS CATCHING HEADLINES. ANOTHER FACTOR ADDING FUEL THIS WEEK IS A  TRUCKER STRIKE IN BRAZIL. IT'S DISRUPTING  SHIPMENTS IN MATO GROSSO, THE TOP GROWING  STATE IN BRAZIL.  THE STRIKE IS OVER PAYMENTS FOR TRANSPORTING  GRAINS TO SOUTHERN PORTS  IT'S NOT GOOD NEWS FOR ETHANOL EXPORTS.

CHINESE CANCELLING ETHANOL
CHINESE BUYERS HAVE REPORTEDLY CANCELLED UP  TO 7 CARGOES OF ETHANOL FOLLOWING A HIKE ON  IMPORT TARIFFS. THE TAX GOING FROM 5 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT  UNLESS CHINESE OFFICIALS STEP IN. SHIPPERS SAY ITS LIKELY TO STALL EXPORT DEMAND  FROM THE WORLD'S FASTEST GROWING MARKET.

RENEGOTIATING NAFTA
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PICK FOR COMMERCE SECRETARY  HAS TRADE AT THE TOP OF HIS PRIORITY LIST. DURING HIS CONFIRMATION HEARING THIS WEEK,  WILBUR ROSS SAID RENEOGIATING THE NORTH  AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IS LOGICALLY THE  FIRST THING FOR HIM TO DEAL WITH. NAFTA WENT INTO EFFECT IN JANUARY OF 1994.  LIVE CATTLE PRICES SEEING LIFE THIS WEEK, TRADING  IN THE 120 RANGE.  JOE VACLAVIK OF STANDARD GRAIN SAYS THAT CAN BE  ATTRIUBITED TO LARGE FUND BUYING <FUNDS HAVE THE BIGGEST LONG POSITION SINCE 2014 WHEN TEH  MARKET WAS ON ITS WAY DOWN FROM SOME ALL TIME HIGHS, IN  ADDITION TO THAT, WE'VE SEEN SOME STRENGTH IN THE CAHS CATTLE  TRADE LAST WEEK I BELEVE AYWEHRE IN TEH 118, 119, 120 RANGE,SO  IT'S BEING SUPPORTED BY FUNDAMNTALS>

CATTLE, PORK PROFITS
CATTEL FEEDING PROFITS MAINTAINING ITS TRIPLE  DIGIT GAINS LAST WEEK. THE LATEST STERLING PROFIT TRACKER SHOWING AT  118 DOLLARS PE HEADS, THAT'S OFF 37 DOLLARS FROM  TEH WEEK PRIOR. PACKERS PROFITS NOW SIT AT 49 DOLLARS PER HEAD,  A LOSS OF 83 DOLLARS FROM THE WEEK BEFORE. FARROW TO FINISH PORK PRODUCERS LOOKING AT 10  PER HEAD GAINS.... A 9 DOLLAR PER HEAD  IMPROVEMENT IN A WEEK. 

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
FOR THE 17TH STRAIGHT MONTH, THE RURAL  MAINSTREET INDEX REMAINED BELOW GROWTH  NEUTRAL. THE RMI IS PRODUCED BY CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY  EACH MONTH, AND GUAGES THE STATE OF THE RURAL  ECONOMY WITH BANKERS.  A THIRD OF THE BANKER SURVEYED SAY SOARING LOAN  DEFAULTS REPRESENTED THE GREATEST RURAL  MAINSTREET BANKING THREAT FOR 2017. AND 90=PERCENT SAY THE LOW AGRICULTURE  COMMODITY PRICES REPRESENTED THE BIGGEST  THREAT TO THE RURAL ECONOMY FOR 2017. <AGRICULTURE'S NATIONAL FORECAST IS BROUGH TO  YOU BY STRATEGO. ADD STRATEGO YIELD FUNGICIDE AT THE EARLY SEASON RATE TO YOUR  POSTEMERGENCE HERBCIDE TANK MIX. YOU'LL GET  HEALTHIRE FIELDS, HIGHER YIELDS AND HIGHER  RETURN ON INVESTMENT>

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, ICE TO  A WARM UP, IT WAS A ROLLERCOASTER WEEK ACROSS  THE COUNTRY.  THANKS TYNE IT ABSOLUTELY HAS. WE HAVE MORE OF A ROLLER COASTER  OT GO INCLUDING THE BIG DROP FOR PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET A  LATTE. THE SECOND DROUGHT MONITOR HAS IMPROVED IN THE SOUTHEAST  AND THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ONLY HAS A SMALL AREA NOW OF EXCEPTIONAL  DROUGHT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SO THAT 'S SOME GOOD NEWS GOING BACK A MONTH IN ARE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD. DROUGHT WAS ACROSS THE  COUNTRY. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  BUT ALL OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS WE'VE CONTINUED TO SEE THOSE  AREAS HE WROTE IN BOTH OF THOSE PARTS OF THE COUNTRY 'S SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAVE SOME ISSUES NEAR AND AROUND  OKLAHOMA THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH BUT THOSE HAVEN'T GOTTEN ANY  WORSE OVER THE LAST WEEK LET 'S GO DAY BY DAY. ON MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THESE SLOTS OR RAIN EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST.  SNOW A REMAINING ALMOST IN CANADA BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS  INTO THE NORTH WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOTS OF SNOW OUT WEST. WE'RE  STARTING TO SEE COLD AIR COMING IN THEIR RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER  SOUTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THOSE TWO STORM SYSTEMS OUT  WEST BY WEDNESDAY COME INTO A PRETTY BIG STORM SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  THE MOST OF IT'S GOING TO BE RAIN THOUGH I KNOW FROM SOUTHERN  GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN OF THE GULF COAST SOME SNOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST MUCH  COLDER ARCTIC AIR STARTING TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY IT 'S  IN THE MOST OF THE EAST AND FOR RIGID ARCTIC AIR COMING BEHIND A  SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES  WAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE KNOW WOULD COME TO AN END AND   THERE IT IS.  WE'LL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THE LONGER RANGE  FORECAST

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. GRAINS TO CATTLE, PRICES SAW A  BOOST THIS WEEK. WE'LL LOOK AT WHY WITH JAROD  CREED AND CRAIG VANDYKE NEXT.  <U.S. FARM REPORT IS POWERED BY RESICORE  HERBCIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES>

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. MY MARKETING ROUND TABLE GUESTS WITH ME THIS WEEK I HAVE JAROD CREED AND CRAIG VAN DYKE ARE AT FRIDAY 'S BIG DAY IN OPERATION DAY. LET 'S TALK ABOUT THAT A LITTLE BIT COMING OFF OF INAUGURATION DAY, NOW WITH A NEW ADMINISTRATION DOES IT CHANGE THE MOOD OF THE MARKETS AND? YOU KNOW IN ESSENCE, IT 'S THE SAME RHETORIC WE HAD MANY MANY YEARS BEFORE THIS. DIFFERENT PRESIDENTS BEFORE THIS. WERE ALWAYS GOING HAVE SOME SORT OF TALKING POINT TO GET PEOPLE HYPED UP. GRANT TRUMP IS IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT PRESIDENT STYLE THAN WE HAD YEARS BEFORE. BUT AS FAR AS IT BEING A MAJOR MARKET MOVER HERE IN AG MARKETS, I THINK YOU'RE LOOKING MORE AT CURRENCIES IF WE'RE GOING TO FIND TRUMP 'S POLICIES MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE COMMUNITY.IT SEEMED LIKE DURING THE INAUGURATION WHEN WE LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET WAS YOU KNOW WE SAW SOME VOLATILITY TAKE PLACE THAT HAVE HAPPENED SINCE SINCE HE WAS ELECTED. SO DO YOU THINK REALLY FOR THIS FIRST QUARTER AND TWENTY SEVEN TEAM THAT THAT REALLY CHANGES THE MARKET IN ANY WAY? CRAIG HAD ON A COUPLE IMPORTANT POINTS. HIS POLICIES ARE GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON CURRENCIES AND THAT'LL TRICKLE OVER TO WHAT WE'RE GONNA FIND ON GRAINS. THAT'S A LONGTIME OFF THOUGH. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT CAN HAPPEN THERE 'S A WHOLE BUNCH OF UNKNOWNS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS SOMETHING THAT IS IN A LITTLE BIT OF INTERESTING NOTES CRAIG MENTIONED EARLIER THAT THE LAST INAUGURATION AND WE HAD WE HAD MASSIVE MASSIVE SWINGS IN GRAIN PRICES. BUT IF YOU RELATE BACK TO TWO THOUSAND EIGHT, WE HAD A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FINANCIAL SITUATIONS THAT TIME FRAME. SO IN REGARDS TO TRUMP AND TAKE IN OFFICE, YOU KNOW IT 'S TOO EARLY TO TELL. YES WE KNOW IT CAN MAKE SOME CHANGES WHO SPOKE ABOUT THAT LAST TIME BUT THE CURRENCIES ARE HOLDING IN THERE AS OF TODAY. YET WHEN WE LOOK AT TRUMP 'S PICK FOR AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE THEN YOU KNOW HE HAS SOME EXPERIENCE WITH TRADE AND IT SEEMS LIKE HIS EXPERIENCE OF BOTH THE LIVESTOCK IN THE GRAIN SECTOR SO ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT MOVING FORWARD?? HE PLAYS BOTH SIDES OF THE PARTY IN HERE AND HE WORKS WELL TOGETHER WITH BOTH SIDES. HE 'S BEEN A PRO TRADE GUY  WHICH IS MAYBE A LITTLE CONFLICTING WHERE TRUMP STANDS RIGHT NOW. SO I THINK IT 'S A HEALTHY BALANCE FOR  AN AG TO HAVE SUNNY COME AND YOU CAN MAYBE MAIL INS WHATEVER TRUMP MIGHT BE THINKING AS FAR ASTRADE WITH CHINA, TRADE WITH MEXICO EX CETERA. I THINK SUNNY WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL IN HELPING BALANCE THAT THAT ACT OUT. SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR. JARED IT 'S BEEN IMPRESSIVE TO WATCH THESE COMMODITY PRICES WE LOOK SPECIFICALLY WHAT 'S START WITH SOYBEANS. YOU KNOW IN THAT THIS BULL RUN THAT WE'VE BEEN ON DO YOU THINKS SOYBEAN PRICES ARE OVERDONE TO THE UPSIDE AT THIS POINT??WELL JUST CIVILITY ELECTION STILL A BUNCH OF UNKNOWNS OUT THERE. OBVIOUSLY THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA, IN ABOUT TWELVE FIFTEEN PERCENT A GROWING AREA HAS HAD TOO MUCH MOISTURE. SO THAT PUT THEN A PERSPECTIVE THAT ARGENTINA WAS FORECASTED TO HAVE AROUND A FIFTY SEVEN MILLION METRIC TON CROP. USDA GAVE US THAT A WHILE BACK. TODAY YOU'LL FIND SOME ESTIMATES THAT ARE EVEN BELOW FIFTY. AND YOU'LL HAVE SOME ESTIMATES FIFTY FIVE. THAT FIFTY THREE FIFTY FOUR MARK IS CAN THE SWEET SPOT RIGHT NOW. BUT GIVEN THAT, WE'RE STILL PLANTING IN ARGENTINA. THERE IS A WHOLE LONG TIME TO COME AHEAD OF UNKNOWN THERE 'S A LOT OF WEATHER TO COME IN ARGENTINA. BRAZIL STARTING HARVEST. SO TO SAY THE SOYBEANS ARE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT I'M TOO EARLY TO TELL. OK BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT THE SOYBEAN MARKET IS TRYING TO TELL US RIGHT NOW, SPECIFICALLY LOOKING AT THE SPREADS WHAT SIGNAL IS THE MARKET GIVEN US?? YOU KNOW THAT THE FUTURES MARKET SPREADS RIGHT NOW ARE TO ME SCREAMING BULLISH ACTION. AND THIS IS VERY SIMILAR ACTION TO WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR WHEN THE BIG RUNUP STARTED. GRANTED, WERE STARTING FROM TEN DOLLARS AS OPPOSED TO 8.80 SO MAYBE THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN CONSIDERATION. YOU KNOW ARGENTINA CRUSH MARGINS WERE SOLID. WERE FINDING DEMAND IN MEAL. IF THE PRODUCT MARKETS CAN CONTINUE TO SPORT THE SOY COMPLEX AND THE SPREADS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BULLISH, I THINK YOU'RE REMAIN BULLISH BEANS HERE UNTIL THE SPREADS TELL US OTHERWISE. THE MARKET'S NOT UNAWARE THAT  WE MIGHT PUT IN MORE SOYBEAN ACRES THIS YEAR. MARKET IS NOT UNAWARE THAT BRAZIL CAN STILL DO PLENTY OF SOYBEAN PRODUCTION.  RIGHT NOW THE SPREADS ARE INDICATING TO ME THAT OKAY WE GOT AND CARRY OUT,  WE GOT PLENTY OF BEANS, OR MAYBE WE DON'T AND FUTURES MARKETS FROM THE TOSS RIGHT. I THINK SOMETHING A PIGGYBACK ON THAT IS YOU HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT THIS MANAGED MONEY POSITION IS IN TODAY. 'S LOW THE MARKET A YEAR AGO THEY WERE SENT IN AT ROUGHLY THE SOL HUNDRED FIFTY TO TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND CONTRACT SHORT SOYBEANS. THEY HAD A LARGE SHORT POSITION AND THEY FLIPPED IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE OVER NINETY DAYS TO BEING LONG  NEAR RECORD POSITION. TODAY AFTER THE RECENT BUYING ACTION YET ESTIMATE HOW HUNDRED TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS LONG. TO CRAIG'S POINT OF LOOKING LIKE LAST YEAR 'S PRICE ACTION TO THIS POINT IT 'S LOOKED A LOT LIKE IT. BUT WE'LL SEE WHAT KIND OF FIREWORKS THEY HAVE LEFT IN A BAD MOVE. FOR YEN MOVING FORWARD. WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ACREAGE OR TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT ON LI ABOUT SOYBEANS WHAT WILL GET COREY WEEK AND EVEN GET INTO A CATTLE DISCUSSION SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK WE TALKED ABOUT SOUTH AMERICA RIGHT BEFORE THE BREAK BEFORE WE JUMP TO A COURAGE TO GET SOUTH AMERICA. WHEN HE DID FINISH PLANTING WE STILL NEED TO HARVEST THE CROPS LOOKING AT THAT YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR THOUGHT PROCESS BEFORE WE EVEN GET INTO THE ACREAGE?? THE MOST INTERESTING POINTS OUT SOUTH AMERICA RIGHT NOW IS THAT AS BRAZIL STARTS HARVEST AND ARGENTINA WRAPS UP PLANTING, WE'RE LOOKING AT A GROSSLY UNDERSOLD SOUTH AMERICAN FARMER. WE MENTION THAT THE FIND AT LENGTH IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET TODAY IS ESTIMATED HUNDRED TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS OF LONG. IF YOU DO MATHBACK TO THE FIFTEEN TO SEVENTEEN PERCENT UNDERSOLD SOUTH AMERICAN FARMER, THAT AMOUNT OF CONTRACT 'S LINEUP. ALL I'M GETTING AT IS WHAT THE SOUTH AMERICA FARMER BEING UNSOLD, WHEN HE COMES TO MARKET, HE 'S GONNA RUN A TIME IS GONNA HAVE TO DO SO, AND THAT CANWHEN WE LOOK AT TODAY 'S MARKET SPECIFICALLY A TWO DAY SWING IN PRICES I SAW SOME I REPORT THIS WEEK THAT THOUGHT MAYBE SOYBEAN ACREAGE GO UP NINETY MILLION ACRES PLUS. YOU THINK IT 'S POSSIBLE?? YOU KNOW WHO CHANGES THE MOST ACRES IS ANALYSTS. AREA IN AND IN NINETY MILLION ACRES ABSOLUTELY, MAY BE IT IS POSSIBLE I I THINK THAT 'S PROBABLY QUITE A STRETCH RIGHT NOW ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'VE GOT CORN EDGING UP NEAR FOUR DOLLARS ON THE DECEMBER CONTRACT. AND AS WE GO FORWARD WITH A CORN NEXT MONTH OR TWO ABOVE FOUR DOLLARS STRENGTHEN IN THE FOUR TEN FOR TWENTY AREA, THEN  YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING SOYBEANS WITH A NINETY MILLION ACRES THIS YEAR. AND WHERE ARE THOSE ACRES GOING TO COME FROM? YOU PROBABLY FIND SOME FROM KANSAS OKLAHOMA AND SOME OF THE NORTHERN YOU KNOW NORTH, SOUTH DAKOTA ARE OUT IN  MONTANA. BUT AS FAR AS US MAKE AND THAT BIG OF A SHIFT OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL ROTATION AND CORN THROUGH THE MIDWEST I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO SEE THAT HIGH OF NUMBER IN SOYBEANS.OK GREG YOU MENTION KNOW WHAT REGIONS WE COULD SEE A REDUCE ACRES WERE IN IN INCREASED SOYBEAN ACREAGE SO WHAT CROPS WE TAKE AWAY FROM CORN AND WHEAT HAVE BEEN WHERE DID WE GET THIS WE BEING A KURD. WELL CERTAINLY THEY'LL BE A LITTLE BIT OF SHIFTING FROM CORN TO BEANS. THE MAIN DRIVER THING MEANING AN ATTENTION GETTER RIGHT NOW WOULD BE WHEAT. WE LOST ROUGHLY THREE, THREE AND A HALF MILLION ACRES IN WHEAT IN THE LAST SEEDINGS REPORT USDA GAVE US. FROM THAT SEEDINGS REPORT TO FINAL, WE TYPICALLY DON'T SEE IT MOVE MORE THAN TWO, THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND ACRES. SO GIVEN THE FACT WE GOT TWENTY THREE POINT THREE MILLION ACRES ARE HARD RED WINTER WHEAT THIS YEAR, WE LOST THOSE ACRES LIKE HE SAID,  WE LOST A MILLION BETWEEN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WE PROBABLY WON'T GET MANY SOYBEAN ACRES AND IT GOES TO. KANSAS WE LOST A MILLION ACRES CERTAINLY SOYBEANS CORN SORGHUM YOU PICK. AT NEBRASKA A LITTLE BIT. SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH DAKOTA A LITTLE BIT IN MONTANA ALL THOSE MIX IN THAT POTENTIALLY FIND A MILLION HALF ACRES OF SOYBEANS THERE AND WE NEED TO FLIP FLOPMY ESTIMATE ROUGHLY, TWO MILLION ACRES OF CORN TO BEANS IS NEXT YEAR. HE MENTIONED WE DO YOU THINK WE FOUND A BOTTOM IN THIS WHEAT MARKET? IT'S THE MARKET 'S JOB TO RATION THE ACRES IN PRODUCTION. I THINK WHAT WE'RE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE IS IS THAT BOTTOM. YOU KNOW YOU WE COULD HAVE THROWN THAT MUCH MORE BEARISH INFORMATION OF THIS WHEAT MARKET RIGHT. WELL WE'VE ALREADY SEEN A START IN TWENTY SEVENTEEN WITH SOME SOLID WHEAT PRICES SO I THINK FOR RIGHT NOW I THINK THE WHEAT MARKET HAS DONE ITS JOB.   AS FAR AS WILL THE PRICE ACTION BE SOMETHING LIKE WHAT WE SEE IN SOYBEANS, I DOUBT IT WE STILL HAVE AMPLE WORLD WHEAT SUPPLIES. BUT I THINK AT THIS POINT, YOU START TO TURN MORE TO ABIDE BY THE DEATH AND SAYS SELL THE RAPA NUI MARKETS CLOSE LOWER OR SLOWER THAN WHAT WE MIGHT SEE IN OTHER MARKETS BECAUSE OF THE WORLD 'S SUPPLY. WHAT ABOUT CORN PRICES WAS ALSO A NICE PRICE ACTION. AS OF LATE DO YOU THINK THAT MOMENTUM CONTINUES I MEAN WHAT 'S BULLISH FACTORS COULD SUPPORT THE CORN MARKET 'S GOING FORWARD?? FIRST BULLISH FACTOR THAT COULD ARISE IS THE PLANTING OF THE SAFRINHA CORN CROP AND WE CAN FORGET LAST YEAR. I WAS CERTAINLY ENDED UP OVER ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE SAFRINA CORN CROP FROM BRAZIL WHICH WILL BEGIN PLANTING AS SOON AS THEY GET THEIR SOYBEAN HARVESTED. WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL IN THIS CORN MARKET THOUGH, AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT ACREAGE. IF YOU RALLY CORN IN OTHER FIFTEEN TWENTY CENTS, I WOULD ALMOST MAKE THE CASE THAT WE WILL PLANT IDENTICAL ACRES OF LAST YEAR. COSTS ARE DOWN ROUGHLY FORTY TO FIFTEEN BUCKS AN ACRE ACROSS THE U S ON CORN. AND RIGHT NOW CORN PRICES FOR NEW CROP IS A DIME HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. IF YOU REALLY PICTURE THAT IN A REVENUE SITUATION, A DOLLAR FIFTY RALLY ON A FIFTY BUSHEL SOYBEANS OR SEVENTY FIVE BUCKS AN ACRE. BUT YOU'VE GOT SEVENTY FIVE DOLLARS AN ACRE SITTING RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW ON CORN AS WELL. AND IF U S FARMER LIKES TO PLANT CORN WE HAVE BEEN GIVEN HIM AND BIG ENOUGH REASON TO SWING ENOUGH ACRES AT THIS POINT. AND WE DO KNOW A LOT OF OUR VIEWERS LOVED TO PLANT CORN WHAT ABOUT A CAT WE'VE SEEN TONIGHT ACTION IN THE IN THE CATTLE MARKET IS WELL ON IS IT MAINLY DUE TO FUND BUYING OR YOU KNOW WHAT 'S WHAT 'S DRIVING THAT?? FUNDS BASICALLY CAME IN IN OCTOBER NEAR THE LOWS AND HAVE STARTED BUILDING A LARGE POSITION, THAT LONG POSITION. RIGHT NOW I SUSPECT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, WE'RE GOING TO SEE IN THE  HUNDRED THOUSAND PLUS ON THE NET LONG SIDE. SO ROUGHLY A THIRD OF OPEN INTEREST. AT TWO THREE YEARS AGO THE RECORD LINE WAS ABOUT A HUNDRED THIRTY SIX THOUSAND NET LONG. SO I DO THINGS OR START A STRETCH THAT THAT FUND LINE OUT A LITTLE BIT. WE'VE SEEN A TWENTY FOUR PERCENT RALLY IN THE PAST THREE FOUR MONTHS TO WORK ON AGAINST BIG TIME TECHNICAL RESISTANCE. SO HOW LONG THEY WERE ALL WILLING TO STRETCH IT GOT TO GET THE THIRTEEN FOURTEEN CATTLE MARKET ON YOUR MIND IF YOU WANT TO BE EFFICIENT IN THE CATTLE MARKETS. WE'RE FINDING A NEW RANGE IN RIGHT NOW FUND MONIES AND AND HELP HIM ALONG SIDE. BUSH IS WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY. WHILE THAT DISCUSSION WENT QUICKLY BUT WE ALREADY HAVE TO TAKE A BREAK AND WE'LL GET YOUR CLOSING THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT

MARKETS NOW
ADLIB <WITH MARKETS CONSTANTLY CHANGING, IT'S  IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE CURRENT PRICES STAND.  GET MARKET PRICES DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR  MOBILE PHONE,L JUST TEXT MARKETS TO 31313 TO GET  STARTED>

JOHN’S WORLD
WELCOME BACK. POPULATION GROWTH IS SOMETHING  AGRICULTURE TALKS ABOUT OFTEN. THAT'S THIS  WEEKEND'S JOHN'S WORLD.  SOMETHING REMARKABLE HAS BEEN GOING ON IN OUR COUNTRY, AND IT  HASN'T RECEIVED AS MUCH ATTENTION AS IT MAY DESERVE. THE US  POPULATION GROWTH RATE DECLINED LAST YEAR TO AN 80-YEAR LOW,  DIPPING BELOW .7% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. LOOKING AT THE COMPONENTS OF THIS TREND, THE DECLINE IN NATURAL  INCREASE - WHICH IS SIMPLY BIRTHS MINUS DEATHS - IS CLEARLY THE  DOMINANT FACTOR. IMMIGRATION HAS BEEN STEADY AT ABOUT ONE  MILLION PER YEAR. THIS IS NOT AN UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. THE  DEATH RATE IS INCREASING BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY LARGE NUMBER  OF BABY BOOMERS REACHING THE END OF THEIR LIFETIMES, AND AT THE  SAME TIME, YOUNGER AMERICANS HAVING FEWER AND LATER CHILDREN.  IN FACT, OUR POPULATION GROWTH RATE IS ON TRACK TO DECLINE EVEN  FURTHER TO ABOUT .5% BY 2040. THIS TREND HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR COUNTRY AND ESPECIALLY FOR  RURAL AMERICA. WITH VERY LITTLE OVERALL GROWTH, RURAL AREAS LOSING  POPULATION WOULD HAVE TO SWIM AGAINST THE TIDE TO BEGIN  GROWING. THE RETURN OF OUTMIGRATION FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE  WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL PUT FURTHER STRESS ON RURAL SCHOOLS AND  BUSINESSES. SOCIAL STRUCTURES LIKE CHURCHES AND CIVIC GROUPS WILL  STRUGGLE AS WELL. ALREADY MANY OF US HAVE NOTICED WE SEE THE  SAME FOLKS AT EVERY MEETING. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALSO MAKES IT  DIFFICULT TO RETAIN YOUNGER CITIZENS. JUST FINDING A MARRIAGE  PARTNER CAN BE A CHALLENGE. LOW POPULATION GROWTH ALSO IMPACTS ECONOMIC GROWTH, AS JAPAN  HAS DISCOVERED. IT IS NO COINCIDENCE THAT SOME OF OUR HIGHEST  GDP GROWTH OCCURRED WHEN OUR POPULATION WAS EXPANDING MORE  RAPIDLY. WHILE THE US IS IN LOW GEAR, MANY OTHER DEVELOPED  COUNTRIES ARE IN REVERSE. NOT ONLY JAPAN, BUT GERMANY, ITALY,  AND MUCH OF EASTERN EUROPE ARE LOOKING AT DECLINING  POPULATIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WHEN WE PLAN THE FUTURE OF OUR INDUSTRY AND RURAL AMERICA, WE  NEED TO FACE THIS HUGE HURDLE HONESTLY. SETTING GOALS THAT  ASSUME PEOPLE WILL BE THERE OR WILL COME IS UNREALISTIC. AND  WHEN COMMUNITIES DEFY THE TREND, AND SOME WILL, WE NEED TO  ACKNOWLEDGE THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MIRACULOUSM  ACCOMPLISHMENT. INTERESTING.T HANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, HOLSTEINS ARE BRINGING THE PRETTY PENNY  THEY ONCE DID. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY IN OUR FARM  JOURNAL REPORT. 

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND,  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. THE PRESIDENT MAKES HIS PICK FOR AG SECRETARY.  WE HAVE THE DETAILS. HOSTEINS ARE SEEING PRICE PRESSURE. THAT'S OUR  FARM JOURNAL REPORT. PLANTER PRICES ARE HOLDING STRONG. WE'RE ON THE  ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE. AND JOHN PHIPPS TAKES A LOOK AT DICAMBA DRIFT IN  CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 

AG SECRETARY ANNOUNCED
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, A DAY BEFORE  INAUGURATION, PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FILLING HIS  FINAL CABINET SEAT, TAPPING FORMER GEORGIA  GOVERNOR SUNNY PERDUE  SECRETARY OF  AGRICULTURE.  WHEN PERDUE TOOK OFFICE AS GEORGIA GOVERNOR  IN 2003, HE WAS THE FIRST REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR IN  130 YEARS AND HE SERVED TWO TERMS.  BEFORE THAT, HE SERVED 11 YEARS IN THE STATE  SENATE.  PERDUE HAS BOTH A LIVESTOCK AND GRAIN  BACKGROUND.  HE WAS A VETERNARIAN BEFORE GETTING  INTO  POLITICS AND FOUNDING PARTNER OF AGROWSTAR, A  SOUTHERN GRAIN BUSINESS WITH 11 ELEVATOR  LOCATIONS. HE ALSO SERVES ON THE NATIONAL GRAIN  AND FEED ASSOCIATION BOARD THE MAJORITY OF AG GROUPS COMING OUT IN  SUPPORT OF TRUMP'S NOMINEE, SAYING HE'S THE  STRONG VOICE FARMES AND RANCHERS NEED.   MEANWHILE, TRUMP'S PICK FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL  GETTING GRILLED BY CONGRESS THIS WEEK.  

PRUITT’S HEARINGS
OKLAHOMA ATTORNEY GENERAL SCOTT PRUITT GOING  BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS  COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY. SENATORS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE SPENT  MULTIPLE HOURS GRILL PRUITT ON HIS STANCE  REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENT, THE ROLL OF EPA  PRUITT GAVE STRONG BACKING TO THE RENEWABLE  FUELS STANDARD, SAYING HE'LL FOLLOW  CONGRESSIONAL INTENT WHEN IMPLEMENTING R-F-S.  ON THE TOPIC OF THE WATER OF THE U-S RULE, PRUITT  SAYS LANDOWNERS NEED CLARITY ON WHAT'S REGULATED. <OBVIOUSLY, MR CHAIRMAN, THAT IF CONRFIRMED AS EPA ADMINSTRATOR,  IS PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, COOPERATIVE FEDERALISM, RULE OF LAW BEING  HTE FOCUS OF HOW WE DO BUSINESS AT THE EPA IS THE CENTER OF  RESTORING CONFIDENCE AND CERTAINTY IF THOSE ARE WHO ARE  REGULATED> PART OF HIS BELIEF IS GIVING STATES POWER  TO MAKE  ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONS AND SUPPORTING THOSE  DECISIONS FROM THE FEDERAL LEVEL.

BAYER, MONSANTO AND TRUMP MEETING
A MEETING BETWEEN TRUMP AND BAYER AND  MONSANTO EXECS IS ALREADY PRODUCING PROMIES  OF MORE JOBS. BAYER SAYS THE BAYER-MONSANTO MERGER WILL  BRING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN RESEARCH AND  DEVELOPMENT SPENDING IN THE U.S. AND MAKE A  SIGNIFICANT COMMITMENT TO CREATING JOBS.  TRUMP'S TRANSITION TEAM CONFIRMED A DEAL WAS  REACHED BETWEEN TRUMP AND BAYER DESPITE THE  AGREEMENT STILL BEING ANALYZED BY REGULATORY  AUTHORITIES. INCOMING WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SEAN  SPICER SAID BAYER HAS COMMITTED TO $8 BILLION IN  NEW U.S. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT... KEEPING 100  PERCENT OF MONSANTO'S 9,000 PLUS U.S.  WORKFORCE, AND ADDING 3,000 NEW U.S. HIGH-TECH  JOBS. 

VILSACK’S NEW JOB
FORMER AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK HAS A NEW JOB,  AND DAIRY FARMERS HAVE A NEW ALLY. VILSACK IS THE  NEW CEO OF THE U-S DAIRY EXPORT COUNCIL, AND  STARTS FEBRUARY FIRST.  VILSACK SAYS HE'S LOOKING FORWARD TO HELP  STREGTHEN TRUST IN AMERICAN DAIRY. 

ORGANIC WELFARE STANDARDS
ORGANIC MEAT AND EGG PRODUCERS ARE FACED WITH  NEW REGULATIONS. USDA ANNOUNCING ORGANIC PRODUCERS WILL NOW  NEED TO FOLLOW STRICTER ANIMAL WELFARE  STANDARDS. LIVESTOCK PRODUCED ORGANICALLY WILL NEED  ENOUGH SPACE TO LIE DOWN, TURN AROUND, STAND  UP AND FULLY STRETCH THEIR LIMBS. CATTLE TAILS  CAN NOT BE CUT.  POULTRY OPERATORS WILL ALSO NEED TO MAKE SURE  BIRDS HAVE ENOUGH ROOM TO MOVE FREELY, AND  BEAKS CAN'T BE REMOVED.  NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL CALLING THIS  ANOTHER 'MIDNIGHT' REGULATION, IN WHICH THEY WILL  WORK WITH TEH NEW ADMINISTRATION TO APPEAL.  

DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
THE DROUGHT SITUATION JUST KEEPS IMPROVING  ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS AREAS OF  CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SEEING RELEIF, PLUS DRY  CONDITIONS IMPORVED ACROSS MISSORUI, KANSAS,  OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.  IMPROVEMENTS IN CALIFORNIA'S WATER SITUATION  BOOSTING THE THE AMOUNT OF WATER FARMERS WILL  RECEIVE THSI CROP YEAR. HERE'S A SKY VIEW OF FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA FROM  ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW THEY SAW EARLIER THIS  MONTH. THE DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESORUCES SAYS  ITS  ESTIMATE OF THIS YEAR'S WATER SUPPLY IS 60  PERCENT OF REQUESTS. THAT'S UP FROM 45 PERCENT  PRIOR. THE DEPARTMENT SAYS THE LATEST ROUND OF  MOISTURE IS DEFINTIELY HELPING, BUT SOME  RESEVOIRS REMAIN LOW.  AND THERE'S STILL TIME TO JOIN OUR PARTYNERS AT  TOP PRODUCER FOR HTE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR  NEXT WEEK IN CHICAGO, ILLINOIS. THE THEME THIS  YEAR IS CONTROLLING CHAOS DURING UNCERTAINTY.  TO REGISTER, JUST VISIT TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR DOT  COM

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST.  THANKS TYNE LET 'S GO RIGHT TO THE JET STREAM. WE HAVE SEEN A  CRAZY PATTERN OVER THE LAST WEEK YOU MAY SEE THAT CONTINUING FOR  THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK BUT THEN IT CHANGES SEE ALL THE STORM  SYSTEM JUST CONTINUE THE ROLL FROM THE WEST OF THE EAST. SOME OF THEM MOVING SLOW SOME BUT NOW A LOT OF RAIN OR SNOW  BY WEDNESDAY THEN THIS IS THE LAST ONE COMING EASTWARD. WE HAVE A BIG RIDGE FORMING OVER THE WEST COAST AND NOW HOLDS AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENS ARE JUST RAIN THAT  CANON COMES TOGETHER WITH THE DROP SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE  NORTHERN PLAINS GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY. AS WE  HAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO BIG TIME CHANGES COMING THERE.  MY THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN  PLAINS GREAT LAKES NORTHWEST NORTHERN ROCKIES ABOVE NORMAL FAR  SOUTHEAST AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY  DAYS. IN THAT BATTLEGROUND AREA ORIGINALLY FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE  GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL ALSO ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST BUT ARE  BELOW NORMAL FOR FLORIDA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES TYNE  THANKS, MIKE. 

HOLSTEINS FACING PRICE PRESSURE
CATTLE PRICES SAW A NICE RUN THIS WEEK, BUT ARE  STILL CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE HIGHS OF 2  YEARS AGO. HOWEVER, HOLSTEIN CATTLE APPEAR TO BE FACING  THEIR OWN PRICE PRESSURE- AS BUYERS PUSH  DISCOUNTS AND SOME PACKERS SHUT THE DOOR.   BETSY JIBBEN HAS THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL  REPORT.  STEP INTO THE LAKE ODESSA LIVESTOCK AUCTION IN  SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN.  WHERE HOLSTEINS ARE UP FOR BID. <"THE EXPANSION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL NOT STOP,"> RADEMACHER IS TALKING ABOUT THE STATE'S DAIRY  BOOM. USDA'S LATEST MILK PRODUCTION REPORT SAYS  MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO SEE GROWTH IN MILK COWS  AND PRODUCTION. GROWING MORE THAN 5 PERCENT  OVER  A YEAR AGO.  <"THE HERDS WHICH WERE 250 ARE NOW 1,000 OR THREE THOUSAND,"> WHILE THE STATE'S DAIRY HERD EXPANDS, THE PRICES  AT AUCTION SKRINKS.  PRODUCERS SAY HOLSTEINS SEEM TO SEE LARGER  DISCOUNTS THAN NORMAL.  <"THE HOLSTEIN STEER MARKET HAS JUST WENT ALL TO PIECES. THE FELLAS  FEEDING COLORED CATTLE AND BLACK CATTLE; THEY'RE HOLDING UP AT  1/10 AND 1/20 BUT THE HOLSTEIN STEERS ARE 80 CENTS,"> <"TYPICALLY YOU HAVE YOUR HOLSTEIN PRICES 10 OR 15 DOLLARS BELOW  THE STANDNARD ANIMALS AND THERE'S TALK OF 20 OR 25 DOLLARS BELOW  NOW BECUASE T HEY NEED TO GO FURTHER TO FIND A HOME OT BE  SLAUGHTERED,"> CONTACTS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TELLING AGDAY  SOME SALE BARNS ARE SEEING 35 TO 40 DOLLAR  DISCOUNTS ON HOLSTEINS.  PRODUCERS SAY IT'S NOT HELPING THAT SOME MAJOR  PACKERS ARE CUTTING BACK OR NOT ACCEPTING  DAIRY CATTLE FOR SLAUGHTER. <"THERE IS A BIGGER DISCOUNT WITH HOLSTEINS TODAY BECAUSE SOME  OF THE PACKERS ARE NOT KILLING HOLSTEINS. THEY JUST QUIT AND ALL  THEY'RE KILLING IS COLORED CATTLE."> SOME TRUCK DRIVERS AT THE AUCTION SAY THEY'VE  ALREADY REDUCED THEIR TRIPS TO TYSON IN JOSLIN,  ILLINOIS.  <"THE GUY I WORK WITH, WE WERE GOING TO JOSLIN 3 OR 4 TIMES A DAY.  ALL OF THE CATTLE NOW ARE PRETTY MUCH GOING TO DIFFERENT PACKING  HOUSES BESIDES TYSON. THEY WANT ALL COLORS DOWN THERE,"> SALE BARN OWNERS AND PRODUCERS VERIFYING WITH  AGDAY THE SQUEEZE IS FELT MAINLY FELT AT TYSON  PLANTS IN THE MIDWEST.  TYSON SAYS THE COMPANY CANNOT COMMENT ON ITS  BUYING PRACTICIES, THEY CONSIDER IT PROPRIETARY. DOHERTY SAYS THE IMPACT OF PACKERS SCALLING  BACK IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.  <"THE PACKER INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO LOOK FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY  AND  PROFIT MARGINS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE HOLSTEIN STEER IS ON THE SHORT  END OF THE STICK AGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT INDUSTRY IS GOING TO HAVE  AN ISSUE IN SUPPLY,"> WHIEL HTE CHANGES ARE OUT OF THE PRODUCER'S  CONTROL, THESE SOGGY MARKETS HAVE THE DAIRY  INDUSTRY NERVOUS ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR  FINDING PROFITS BEYOND THE MILK PARLOR.  REPORTING IN LAKE ODESSA, MICHIGAN, I'M BETSY  JIBBEN.  THANKS BETSY.  WHILE SOME PACKERS ARE SCALING BACK, OTHERS  ARE MAINTAINING THEIR NUMBERS.  CARGILL TELLING AGDAY THE COMPANY "HAS NOT  CHANGED ITS CATTLE PROCUREMENT PRACTICES." JBS ALSO SAYING THE COMPANY "WILL CONTINUE TO  ACTIVELY PARTICIPATE IN HOLSTEIN STEER" MARKET. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.  <U.S. FARM REPORT IS POWERED BY RESICORE  HERBCIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES>

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WE HEARD HORROR STORIES THIS SUMMER OF OLD  FORMULATIONS OF DICAMA DRIFTING, KILLING CROPS  NOT RESISTANT TO THE CHEMISTRY. BUT DICAMBE ISN'T NEW.  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  KEN SCHNEIDER, FROM SANGER, CALIFORNIA, OFFERS A CORRECTION TO  OUR STORY ABOUT DICAMBA-RESISTANT CROPS BACK IN NOVEMBER. "I FOUND YOUR EDITORIAL ON DICAMBA RESISTANT SOYBEANS TROUBLING.  YOUR REFERENCE TO VOLATILITY AND DRIFT WERE USED INTERCHANGEABLY.  THIS IS NOT CORRECT. IN REALITY VOLATILITY IS INHERENT IN THE PRODUCT  ITSELF AND THE FORMULATION. IT IS THE PROPENSITY OF A PRODUCT TO LIFT  OFF ONCE DEPOSITED. DRIFT IS MORE OF A PROBLEM WITH WEATHER  CONDITIONS, OFF TARGET MOVEMENT AND APPLICATION PRECISION. IF YOU  HAVE A PRODUCT THAT IS NONVOLATILE, BUT ARE SLOPPY IN APPLYING IT,  YOU WILL STILL GET DAMAGE TO NEIGHBORS SENSITIVE CROPS, OFTEN FOR  LONG DISTANCES." KEN , WE DID MISUSE THE TERMS IN OUR STORY, AND WE APOLOGIZE.  WE ARE ALL ABOUT TO GET SCHOOLED ON VOLATILITY THANKS TO THE RAPID  ADOPTION OF DICAMBA-RESISTANT SOYBEANS TO COMBAT SOME  SERIOUS WEED PROBLEMS. WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THIS OFTEN, BUT I  WANT TO LIFT UP ONE POINT TO FARMERS WHO REMEMBER USING  DICAMBA ON CORN, AND WONDER WHAT ALL THE FUSS IS ABOUT. BACK BEFORE GMO CORN, DICAMBA WAS A POPULAR BROADLEAF WEED  CONTROL HERBICIDE, AND EVEN THEN WE NOTICED ITS UNPREDICTABLE  BEHAVIOR IN THE FIELD. BUT EVEN THOUGH WE HAD THE SAME  PROBLEMS WITH DRIFT AND VOLATILITY, WE RARELY SAW THE KIND OF CROP  DAMAGE THAT HAPPENED IN THE SOUTHERN CORNBELT LAST YEAR. THE  BIG DIFFERENCE, I BELATEDLY REALIZED, WAS WHEN WE APPLIED THE  PRODUCT. I REMEMBER THE IDEAL APPLICATION WINDOW WAS WHEN  CORN WAS 5" HIGH. AT THAT TIME, MOST BEANS HAD NOT EVEN  EMERGED, SINCE BEANS WERE USUALLY PLANTED AFTER CORN.  ONSEQUENTLY, EVEN THOUGH I HAD SOME DAMAGE TO MY CROPS  AND NEIGHBORING CROPS I NEVER HAD TO MAKE GOOD ON MY OFFER TO  MAKE RESTITUTION. STRANGELY, I HAD A FIELD WHERE THE DICAMBA DRIFT  SEEMED TO IMPROVE YIELDS. HOWEVER, TODAY WE'RE TALKING ABOUT  APPLYING DICAMBA MUCH LATER IN THE SEASON, WHEN SOYBEAN  YIELDS CAN BE SERIOUSLY COMPROMISED BY DRIFT AND VOLATILITY. MY POINT IS THAT SOME OF US NEED TO RETHINK OUR ATTITUDE ABOUT  DICAMBA APPLICATION BECAUSE OF OUR MEMORIES CAN BE SINGULARLY  UNHELPFUL. WE NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THIS ISSUE, BECAUSE THIS IS  NOT YOUR FATHER'S DICAMBA PROBLEM. THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
UP NEXT, PLANTING SEASON MAY SEEM LIKE IT'S A  LONG WAY OFF, BUT IT'S TIME TO START PREPPING  NOW. UP NEXT, WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY  PETE. 

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
ON TEH ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE BROUGHT TO YOU BY JOHN DEEER. NOTHNG RUNS LIKE A DEERE. EQUIPMENT VALUES  HOLDING UP TO START OFF THE  NEW YEAR, SOMETHING CATCHING THE EYE OF  MACHINERY PETE.. BUT MORE THAN JUST WATCHING  PRICES, HUTSON, A JOHN DEERE DEALER IN KENTUCKY,  SAYS FARMERS SHOULD TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THE  PLANTER NOW, TO ENSURE IT'S PRIME TO PLANT THIS  SPRING.  VIBRANT GREEN ACRES IN SOUTWESTERN KENTCUKY   ARE FALLING VICTIM TO THE OVERSPPLY STORY IN  WHEAT THIS YEAR.   LITTLE BIT. WE HAD A LITTLE EBIT OF  MARGINAL GROUND IN THE ROTATION FOR WHEAT CROP THIS TIME, AND WITH  THE WAY THE PRICES THE WAY THEY WERE, WE REDUCED OUR WHEAT  ACRES BY ABOUT 1,000 TO 1500 ARES> < FOR US THE BEST MONEYMAKER IS STILL WHEAT AND DOUBLE CROP  BEANS. AFTER THAT FOR US IT'S CORN. SO EVERYBODY HAS STAYED IN  PRETTY MUCH A TRUE ROTATION"> VIEWS ON ACREAGE MAY VARY, BUT THESE FARMERS  ARE COMING OFF A RECORD CROP YEAR.  < "THE LAST TWO YEARS OF BEEN TWO OF THE HIGHTST YIELDING DOUBLE  CROP BEANS EVER"> THAT, COUPLED WITH A CHANGE IN ADMINSTRATION, IS  HELPING MOVE MOODS.  "I THINK THEY'RE MORE OPTIMISTIC."> GREG DAVENPORT OF HUTSON EQUIMENT SAYS 2016  TURNED OUT BETTER THAN EXPECTED A THE  DELAERSHIP... A TREND THAT MACHINERY PETE IS ALSO  WATCHING.  <HIGH HORSE POWER TRACROS WE'VE SEEN GOOD DEMAND. COMBINE  MARKET VERY STRONG END OF THE YEAR. VERY STRONG. SO THAT WAS  MAYBE THE BIGGEST JUMP I SAW IN THE 4TH QUARTER>  AT HUTSON IT WAS MORE THAN JUST BUYS OF BOTH  OLD AND NEW EQUIPMENT, THERE'S ALSO MORE  INTEREST IN LEASING.  < LEASING IS AN INEXPENSIVE WAY TO OWN THE BIGGER EQUIPMENT.  YOU KNOW IT DOESN'T GO ON YOUR BALANCE SHEET. IT'S JUST KIND OF AN  AFFORDABLE WAY TO DO IT WHEN CASH IS SHORT."> IT'S A MARKET THAT'S CHANGING, BUT A FARMER'S  DECISION TO BUY OR LEASE ISN'T A RASH ONE.  <'I THINK MOST FARMERS ARE GOING TO MAKE VERY SUTIDED  PURCHASES, BUT THEYR'E GOING TO MAKE PURCHASES. THEY KNOW  THEY CAN'T SAVE THEIR WAY TO A PROFIT. THEYR'E GOING TO HAVE TO DO  SOME THINGS TO MAXIMIZE YIELDS, MINIMIZE EXPENSES, AND THAT  PONTS TO US."> TRYING TO MAXIMIZE YIELDS THROUGH MORE THAN  JUST EQUIPMENT... <"AT THIS DAY, I'M PLANNING ON SPRAYING EVERY ACRE OF FUNGICIDE  ON CORN. > <"I'M NOT GOING TO CUT COSTS TO TRY TO SAVE MONEY. I'M GOING TO TRY  TO MAKE SURE WHAT I'M SPENDING IS GOING TO GIVE US THE BEST  RETURN"> <THERE'S ONLY A  FEW THINGS WE CAN CUT, SO WE JUST HAV TO TRY TO PRODUCE THE BEST  CROP WE CAN"> BOUNTIFUL HARVEST, INTEREST IN PLANTERS WAS  HIGH. <"AT THE END OF 2016, TYNE, WE SAW THE USED FVALUE OF AUCTION  PRICES WERE VERY SOLID. KIND OF SURPRISINGLY. WENT UP MORE THAN I  THOUGHT THEY WOULD. FROM ABOUT NOVEMBER 1 RIGHT THROUGH THE  END OF DECEMBER AROSS THE COUNTRY ESPIALLY WHEN YOU GOT INTO  SOME OF THOSE AREAS WITH REALLY GOOD SOYBEAN YIEDS GUYS WERE  REALLY AGGRESSIVE> DAVENPORT SAYS A GAMECHANGER FOR FARMERS IN  THIS AREA IS ROW SHUTOFFS.  <"I MEAN IST SAVES ON SEED, .. THE TECHNOLOGY IS THE BIG THING  ANYMORE. > FOLZ SAYS IT'S VARIABLE RATE PLANTING THAT'S ALSO  BOOSTING YIELDS.  < THE YEARS THAT WE'VE DONE THE TESTING AND STRIPS, THE VARIABLE  RATE STUF HAS ALWAYS SHOWN A PROFIT, SHOWN A RETURN.> THE TECHNOLOGY IS PEAKING INTEREST, LARGELY DUE  TO THE VARIABILITY IN THESE RICH SOILS.  <WE'LL RUN INTO 15, 16 DIFFERENT SOIL TYPES IN A 200 ACRE FIELD> AS THESE FARMERS COUNT DOWN THE DAYS UNTIL  PLANTING SEASON, HUTSON SAYS FARMERS HOLDING  ONTO PLANTERS A LITTLE LONGER SHOULD START PREPPING THAT PIECE OF MACHINERY NOW. <"A TWO PSI CHANGE WITHIN YOUR VACUUM PRESSURE IS MAKING A  PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE AND IS FINANCIALLY IMPATING YOU"> FROM PLANTERS TO SPRAYERS, IT ALL NEEDS A  SECOND LOOK. HUEBNER SAYS IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT  TO NOW WHEN A SPRAY TIP IS PAST ITS PRIME. <"WHAT WE FOUND IS ONE YOU PASS THAT ABOUT 25,000 ACRE MARK,  IT'S TIME FOR YOU TO TAKE A SERIOUS LOOK AT IT, IT'S TIME TO SEE IF YOUR  PATTERN SI WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE. > WITH ALL THE UNKNOWNS THAT LIE AHEAD, THESE  FARMERS ARE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN NOW TO MAKE SURE THE 2017 CROP IS OFF TO A GOOD START. <CONTROL EVERYTHING WE CAN CONTROL. YOU CAN'T WORRY ABOUT THE  REST TOO MUCH">

TEASE
NEXT MONTH, WE'LL LOOK AT EQUIPMENT TRENDS IN  THE CORNHUSKER STATE. WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHIENRY PETE REJOINS US  WITH TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS.  RUNNING OLD MACHINES CAN  BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES AND CALLING ON YOUR NEIGHBORS FOR ASSISTANCE  IS JUST PART OF BEING IN FARM COUNTRY.    BOB BLAIR SHOWS US HOW HE FIRES UP HIS 1927 MCCORMICK  DEERING IN THE HEART OF TEXAS   DID YOU GET THE GAS TURNED ON I'M GONNA GET A FRIEND TO PULL ME  WITH A JAPANESE BUILT TRACTOR THIS IS SO VERY CLOSE TO A TRACTOR THAT MY GRANDDAD HAD THAT I SAT  IN HIS LAP AND DROVE WHEN I WAS FIVE YEARS OLD AND I'M SIXTY-EIGHT  NOW AND THAT 'S STILL GOT THE PROPERTY THAT WE WERE PLOWING AT THAT  TIME AND THIS WAS ALWAYS A TRACTOR THAT I THOUGHT I WANTED  SOMEDAY SO WHEN I FOUND THIS ONE IN MONTANA WE WENT AFTER I  THINK THE DAY I BOUGHT IT IT WAS COVERED IN SNOW WITH ABOUT FIFTY  BELOW I NEED TO DO SOME WORK ON MAGNETO AND CARBURETOR TO GET  IT TO OPERATE LIKE IT SHOULD GO AND CHANGE SOME SHEET METAL ON IT  BUT I AM THROUGH IT WILL IT WILL HAVE ALL THE OPTIONS I'M STILL LOOKING  FOR A HILLSIDE DRAWBAR, I DO HAVE POWER TAKE OFF FOR IT THIS WAS NOT  SO I UNDERSTAND THE FIRST TRACTOR TO COME OUT WITH POWER TAKEOFF.    ONE INTERESTING THING ON THESE ITS GOT THREE TANKS SO THE LITTLE  TANK IS FOR GASOLINE STARTING THE LARGEST TANK IS FOR FUEL WHAT IT  WOULD USE DESOLATE KEROSENE OR GASOLINE EITHER ONE AND THE  MIDDLE SIZED TANK WAS FOR WATER.  YOU LIKE THIS TRACTOR? I WILL WANT  TO GET THROUGH WITH THAT

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES THE FIRST  CHRISTIAN CHURCH OF HOPKINSVILLE, KENTUCKY. THE  ORGANIZATION OF THE CHURCH TOOK PLACE IN THE  OLD COURT HOUSE IN NOVEMBER OF 1832. THE  CURRENT CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1958. THANK YOU FOR  SHARING THAT STORY.  AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - CROPWACH  IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. IT WAS AN ICY START TO THE WEEK IN GILTNER  NEBRASKA. LOOK AT THIS COOL PICTURE ZACH  CAPTURED OF HIS BARBWIRE FENCE... HE SAYS THE BARBED WIRE IS LOOKING EXTRA BARB WIREY ON THAT  DAY. THE ICE DID TAKE SOME BRANCHES DOWN, BUT  THEY ESCAPED THE MAJOR DAMAGE.  KYLE POSTED ON TWITTER THAT HE'S SO TIRED OF FOG  AND ICE. LOOK AT IT CAKED OFF HTE SIDE OF THE  TRUCK.  RYAN WAGNER SAYS THE GOOD NEWS IS IT WARMED UP  TO 38 DEGREES. THE BAD NEWS IS THERE ARE A  BARRAGE OF ICE MISSILES AT THE BIN SITE.  AND IN MICHIGAN, REESE FARMS SAYS IT WAS MORE OF  HTE SAME THIS WEEK... FILL, DUMP, REPEAT. AS THEY  WERE HAULING GRAIN.  YOU KNOW MIKE, THE DROUGHT MONITOR 'S JUST SHOW SOME MAJOR CHANGES SO WE CONTINUE TO GET SOME OF THAT OYSTER PATTERN IN CALIFORNIA AND IN IN IN THE SOUTH EAST. FOR NO OUR MODELS ARE LOOKING LIKE WE GET A RIDGE AT WEST COLD AIR STARTS COMING INTO THE EAST SO THAT WILL TELL A SHOT OFF THAT TRAIN IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.   AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND  COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US AT U-S FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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