USFR Weekly Recap - January 7-8, 2017

January 7, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 7-8, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. AS FARMERS LOOK TO LENDERS TO KICK OFF THE NEW  YEAR, SOME ARE QUESTINONG IF WE WILL SEE A  REPEAT OF THE 1980S?  THINK THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  NOW AND WHERE WE WERE IN THE 1980'S.> TAHT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  COLOSSAL SNOW IN CALIFORNIA DROPPING MORE THAN  10 FEET, EATING AWAY AT THE LONG-STANDING  DROUGHT.  SAVE THE PIGS-- A MAINE WOMAN ON A MISSOURI TO  SAVE A PIG BREED ON THE VERGE OF EXTINCTION.  <YOU HAVE TO EAT A RARE BREED TO HELP THEM COME BACK. > AND IN JOHN'S WORLD <NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS. DO THEY HAVE TO BE PLURAL> <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

MILK PRICES
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS,  CLASS 3 MILK PRICES CLOSING OUT 2016 WITH A BANG,  HITTING A 2- YEAR HIGH.  USDA SAYS THE DECEMBER CLASS 3 MILK PRICES  REACHING 17.40 DOLLARS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT.  THAT'S 64 CENTS ABOVE NOVEMBER'S PRICE AND 2  DOLLARS 96 CENTS ABOVE DECEMBER 2015. USDA SAYS LOOKING AT ALL OF 2016, CLASS 3  AVERAGED 14.87. 

SOYBEAN RALLY
SOYBEANS RALLYING 20 CENTS ON WEDNESDAY, THE  MOMENTUM MAINLY FROM REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINS IN  ARGENTINA. SOUTH AMERICAN CONSULTANT DR MICHAEL  CORDONNIER (CORE-DOAN-EE-AIR) WARNING THAT AS  MUCH AS 1 MILLION HECTARES COULD BE LOST DUE TO  FLOODING.   ACRES WILL NEED TO BE REPLANTED IF IT DRIES OUT IN  TIME. AND BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE CUTTING IT'S  ARGENTINE PLANTING FORECAST BY 300 THOUSAND  ACRES THIS WEEK.  THE 20 CENT RALLY IN THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX HITTING  A DAY AFTER SOYBEAN FUTURES REACHED A SIX WEEK  LOW.  BRAZIL FARMERS ARE STILL LOOKING AT MASSIVE  SOYBEAN YIELDS.  ADVANCE TRADING SAYS ONE OF BRAZIL'S LARGEST  FARMING GROUPS EXPECTS SOYBEAN YILEDS TO TOP  LAST YEAR BY 10 PERCENT.

WINTER WHEAT WOES
WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY  DURING DECEMBER. KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ALL  SEEING THE WHEAT CROP DETEORIATE.  JUST IN KANSAS, THE AMOUNT OF THE CROP RATED  GOOD TO EXCELLENT DROPPED FROM 44 PERCENT TO  28 PERCENT. MUCH OF THAT DUE TO DRYNESS.  OKLAHOMA'S CONDITIONS FALLING 3 PERCENT. AND BOTH COLORADO AND NEBRASKA'S CROP  DECLINING 7 POINTS. 

DOLLAR SEEING LOSS
THE U-S DOLLAR THIS WEEK SEEING IT'S LARGEST ONE  DAY LOSS SINCE THE ELECTION. IT HIT 3 WEEK LOWS, BUT IS STARTING TO REBOUND. THE BEARISH PRESSURE CAME FROM NOTES RELEASED  FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE THAT PAINTED  UNCERTAINTY OVER TRUMP POLICIES CRUDE OIL TRADING ABOVE 50 DOLLARS PER BARREL  FOR A MONTH, BUT THE COMMODITY RECEIVED  BEARISH NEWS THIS WEEK.  NEW GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWING A BIG INCREASE IN  DOMESTIC FUEL STOCKPILES.  THAT OFFSET A LARGE DECLINE IN COMMERICAL CRUDE  INVENTORIES. 

TRUMP TRANSITION
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ROLLING OUT MORE  APPOINTMENTS THIS WEEK, INCLUDING U-S TRADE  REPRESENTATIVE.  ROBERT LIGHT-HIZER IS THEIR NOMINEE TO FOCUS ON  TRADE.  HE WAS A DEPUTY TRADE REPRESENTATIVE UNDER THE  REAGAN ADMINISTRATION AND IS AN INTERNATIONAL  TRADE ATTORNEY.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER...MIKE,  FORECASTS THIS WEEK CALLING FOR MORE THAN 10  FEET OF SNOW IN CALIFORNIA. IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE? WELL TYNE NOT MOST PLACES BUT IN THE SIERRA NEVADAS YES, TEN FEET OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND THEY'RE GOING TO GET A LOT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  WE MIGHT EVEN SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR IMPROVE,IN THE NEXT MONTH IN CALIFORNIA.  IT 'S DEFINITELY IMPROVED IN THE SOUTHEAST.  LET 'S GO BACK A MONTH TO SEE HOW MUCH LARGER THAT EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL AREA WAS.  THAT HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND HAS GETTING A LITTLE BIT WORSE OR HAS BEEN GETTING A LITTLE BIT WORSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLYSOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.  ALRIGHT, LET'S GO DAY BY DAY DOUBLE STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST AS WE START THE WEEK.  LOTS OF SNOW IN THE ROCKIES, LOTS OF RAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST.STILL CHILLY WEATHER BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, LITTLE BIT OF SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN EASTERN FLORIDA.  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES - A WHOLE BUNCH OF RAIN UP AND DOWN THE APPELLATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST.SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT, MAINLY LAKE EFFECT THERE.  SNOW UP IN EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST AND THIS WILL BE PUTTING DOWN A LOT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST.BY FRIDAY THAT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS WEAKER AT THAT POINT, MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT A LIGHT SNOW THERE.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AND ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK IN THE WEST.WITH RAIN INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION AND LOTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.  WE'LL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. SO, WAS THE SOYBEAN RALLY THIS  WEEK THE TIP OF THE ICEBURG? BRYAN DOHERTY AND  MIKE FLOREZ JOIN ME NEXT.  <U.S. FARM REPORT IS POWERED BY RESICORE  HERBICDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES>

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK MIKE FLOREZ OF FLOREZ TRADING AND BRYAN DOHERTY OF STEWART PETERSON 'S OR IT WILL START OFF WITH THE SOYBEAN MARKET SAW A NICE RALLY ON WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY THE PRICE ACTION WAS NOT SO FRIENDLY. BUT LET 'S BACKTRACK TO A WEDNESDAY. WHAT SUPPORTED PRICES SO MUCH? WAS IT MAINLY SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER AND THE ISSUES IN ARGENTINA?I THINK SO FOR MOST PART THAT'S WHAT THE BIG DRIVERS OF THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SOYBEANS IS WEATHER IN SOUTH AMERICA. I THOUGHT THERE'D BE OF MUCH BIGGER RALLY THAN WE'VE HAD. I'M A LITTLE SURPRISED ABOUT FRIDAY 'S ACTION. ALTHOUGH I STILL THINK THAT WERE PROBABLY THIS IS UM A BRICK TO BUY, NOT A RALLY TO SELL. SO YOU THINK THAT THERE IS MORE UPSIDE? I DO YES IS IT 'S NOT IDEAL WEATHER IN SOUTH AMERICA AND WE ARE SELLING A LOT A GRAIN. I DON'T THINK THAT 'S GOING END. CRUSH MARGINS ARE VERY PROFITABLE FOR CHINA. THE EXPORTS THAT WE GOT ON FRIDAY WERE I THINK SKEWED BECAUSE OF THE HOLIDAYS. WE WERE LOOKING FOR LIKE A MILLION TWO, AND WE GOT LIKE TWO. THAT 'S WHAT I THINK KIND OF GOT INTO THE MARKET. THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN HEARING YOU KNOW THAT WE ARE SEEING LIKE RECORD YIELDS AND IN BRAZIL IN THAT WE WILL SEE NEGATIVE PRICE PRESSURE ON SOYBEANS WILL BE ABOARD WHAT ONE OF YOUR THOUGHTS WHAT WHAT 'S GOING OUT ON IN SOUTH AMERICA AND HOW WILL THAT IMPACT PRICES?? WELL THERE 'S ALWAYS SOME WEATHER ISSUES THAT CAN BE ARGUED. I THINK IN GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WE SAW SNOW COPIOUS RAINS IN PARTS OF ARGENTINA AND TALK OF FLOODING. THE MARKET HAD BEEN DOWN PRIOR TO THAT THREE CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS WITH A WEAK FINISHES. I THINK THAT 'S A SHORT COVERING THERE. THE KEY IS THE DAY AFTER TWO DAYS AFTER AND IT FAILS ON THE NEAR TERM FRIENDS STILL DOWN SINCE PEAKING ABOUT THREE TO FOUR WEEKS AGO, I MIGHT DIFFER WITH MIKE A LITTLE BIT. I DON'T LIKE THE TECHNICAL PICTURE SO MUCH IN BEANS. YET THE TEN HOUR MARK IS HOLDING BUT AS THAT CROP MATURES, I'M A LITTLE BIT MORE CONCERN THAT MARKETS HAVE A TENDENCY TO TO TRADE A PERCEPTION. THE PERCEPTION IS CHINA WILL SHIFT THEIR BUYING TO SOUTH AMERICA AND THAT MAY HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON TODAY'S EXPORT SALES FIGURE. DO NOT THINK THAT WE FOUND A BOTTOM IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET. I'M NOT BETTING ON IT.BEANS HAD A GOOD RALLY INTO THE EARLY FALL AND THEN IN THE EARLY WINTER WINDOW E THEY DID THAT I THINK THE PIPELINE WAS PRETTY CLEAN.AND IN THE MARKET NEEDED TO MOVE UP THE POLE BEANS ON A FARMER 'S HANDS, BUT WE GOT A BIG REPORT COMING OUT JANUARY TWELFTH AND I THINK THAT 'S GOING TO CONFIRM A BIG PRODUCTION THIS YEAR. AND CARRY OUTS LIKE THIS STAY IN THAT FOUR HUNDRED EIGHTY MILLION BUSHEL THE DO YOU THINK THAT WE'RE FINDING A BOTTOM? I THINK WE'RE FINDING A BOTTOM ON ALL GRAINS.  I THINK THIS IS GOING THE LAST HURRAH OF THE BEAR MARKETS. WE'VE BEEN IN BEAR MARKETS FOR SINCE TWO THOUSAND TWELVE RIGHT AND THEY'RE VERY OLD BEAR MARKETS. BEANS HAVE BEEN THE MOST BULLISH OVER THESE PAST FEW MONTHS BUT I DON'T THINK YOU WANT TO START LOOKING TO SHORT THE MARKET HERE WHERE YOU STILL HAVE UNKNOWN WHETHER IN SOUTH AMERICA AND YOU STILL HAVE VERY GOOD DEMAND.  ON TOP OF THAT IS GONNA BE A LOT OF RE BALANCING COME INTO THE MARKETPLACE. I THINK THAT THE NEW YORK GUYS LOOKING MORE FOR INFLATION THIS YEAR.AND I THINK THAT COULD BECAUSE GRAINS ARE LOW PRICES I THINK THAT COULD ALSO COME INTO PLAY TOO.AND I KNOW YOU'RE YOU'RE STRONG ON THE BALANCE SIDE OF CORN SOLD IT IN AND THAT IN A SECOND.BUT THIS WEEK I HEARD RUMORS OF ONE ANALYST TALKING ABOUT SIX DOLLAR SOYBEANS. I MEAN THAT IS SCARY TO TALK ABOUT. BUT IT 'S SIX DOLLARS WILL BE EVEN POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT?  NOT AT THIS POINT THAT SOMEWHERE DOWN THE ROAD IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO OF LIKE HOW MUCH HOW FAR DOWN THE ROAD?PROBABLY LATE SUMMER, FALL. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT RECORD PRODUCTION REQUIRED OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE DOLLAR CONTINUING ITS TRACK HIGHER.  AND YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT INCREASED ACREAGE AND RECORD PRODUCTION IN THE U S TO DO THAT AND EVEN IF THEY DO GO DOWN TO SIX, WHAT AN OUTSTANDING VALUE FOR THE WORLD THE WORLD HAS BEEN A RAVENOUS ON BEANS AND PROTEIN PRODUCTS SELL. WELL I'M NOT NECESSARILY A BULL IN THE VERY SHORT TERM PICTURE IS I DON'T LIKE THE TECHNICAL SIDE OF RIGHT NOW,YOU CAT HELP TO IGNORE TWO THINGS: ONE THE DEMAND PICTURE IN AND NOT ONLY PROTEIN PRODUCTS BUT GRAINS IN GENERA.L THAT IS A HUGE SHIP THAT SPENT SAILING NOW FOR THREE TO FOUR YEARS IN GROWING. THAT SHIP DOESN'T TURN AROUND UNLESS YOU GET HIGHER PRICES. T THAT PRICE APPRECIATION ONLY COMES FROMPROBABLY WEATHER OR SOMETHING THAT WOULD CURB DEMAND SO DEMAND IS OUTSTANDING. IT 'S GREAT. I LOVE THE DEMAND PICTURE IN CORN BEANS AND WHEAT. IF WE GO MUCH LOWER THOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE YOU NEEDED TO TAKE SOME ACTION ON ON ON SOYBEAN PRICES AT THIS POINT? WELL AS A PRODUCER YOU NEED THE LOOK AND SAY WELL 'OUTLOOK CAN CHANGE.  OUTLOOK CAN SUGGEST SIX DOLLARS BEANS, TWELVE DOLLAR BEANS.'  THE LAST TEN YEARS, BEANS OF SPENT A LOT OF TIME AROUND TEN DOLLARS GIVE OR TAKE A DOLLAR. SO PREPARE FOR THE WORST. BE DEFENSIVE. SELL BEANS. BIG INVENTORY  BE PREPARED FOR THAT. THING TAKE OPTIONS RETAIN OWNERSHIP OF A STAND FROM IN THIS MARKET IT 'S GOT ALL THE MAKINGS OF A BULL MARKET. PEOPLE ARE VERY BEARISH IN GENERAL, WATCH OUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE VERY BEARISH. THIN AND EVEN TALKING ABOUT THIS WARREN SO IF YOUR PROJECTION HOLDS TRUE AND WE ARE FINDING A BOTTOM AND WE SHOOT HIGHER IN SOYBEANS WHAT RICE DID YOU HAVE FOUR PRODUCERS RIGHT NOW?  THE SOYBEAN MARKET IN LONG RIGHT NOW IS CAN WE TAKE A SECONDARY TO ME BECAUSE I'M MORE INTERESTED IN COURT I THINK CORN IS THE DARLING OF THE MARKET THIS YEAR . BECAUSE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE LESS ACRES. WE GOT MONEY SHIFTS THAT ARE COME INTO THE MARKET. SOME WERE ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND AN INDEX FUND BUYING POINT WE'VE ALSO GOT A HUNDRED THOUSAND OF THE SHORT TERM MONEY SHORT SO A LOT OF MONEY FLOWS GOING TO COME INTO THE MARKET WE ALL SET TO BUY ACRES IN AND VARIOUS OTHER FUNDAMENTALS BUT I AM LOOKING AT IT TECHNICALLY IN LOOKING AT LONG TERM I THINK A MAJOR CYCLE LOWS NO ONE ON GRAINS OF THE WHOLE CORNER TO ME IS MORE THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE SECOND AND I THINK WE'RE GONNA GO REALLY INTO A BULL MARKET LAST SUMMER BETWEEN EIGHTEEN MONTHS AND TWENTY FOUR MONTHS SO I THINK WE WERE AT LOWE 'S CORN THE DARLING OF THE MARKET A CASE OF HIS BRIAN THINKS THAT I THINK THAT 'S TRUE WE'LL ASK HIM WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. LET 'S START OFF WITH THIS CORN MARKET YOU MEAN BY EXPLAINING PAINTING A PRETTY BULLISH PICTURE FOR CORN IS THE MARKET SETTING UP THAT WAY?IT IS. LOOK AT THE END USER THEY HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY LOCAL CORN FOR THE NEXT YEAR. AND THEY SHOULD. ARE THEY DOING IT? PROBABLY NOT. THEY'RE HAND TO MOUTH. GET ANY KIND OF CATALYST IN THERE IN THIS THING 'S GOING TO MOVE. NOW ON WE LOOK AT THE CORN MARKET, TAKE A LOOK AND SAY  CARRY OUTS AND A TEN YEAR HIGH LEVEL. THERE 'S NO REASON FOR ANYBODY TO BUY. REMEMBER THINGS ARE ALWAYS SHIFTING AND CHANGING WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE STATIC NUMBERS IS EASY TO BE PESSIMISTIC WHEN YOU LOOK THE PRICE OF CORN, WHAT IT TAKES TO PRODUCE CORN, AND THE WEATHER WE'VE HAD THE LAST THREE OR FOUR YEARS, IT DOESN'T TAKE MOVING THOSE CHESS PIECES AROUND THE BOARD TOO MUCH TO CHANGE THIS DRAMATICALLY. ME GIVE YOU A QUICK EXAMPLE IF WE WOULD DROP YOU OFF DOWN THE I SIXTY FIVE FROM I SEVENTY FIVE THAT TAKES ABOUT EIGHT HUNDRED MILLION BUSHELS OFF THECARRY OUT. DROP THE ACREAGE DOWN FIVE MILLION, YOU'RE DOWN ANOTHER SEVEN HUNDRED MILLION. ALL OF A SUDDEN, STOCKS TO STOCK USAGE GO FROM TEN YEAR HIGHS TO TEN YEAR LOWS. THAT 'S KINDA SET UP THE CORN MARKET HAS. IT 'S A CHEAP COMMODITY, THE FUNDS ARE SHORT.WATCH THE FUNDS WHEN THEY GO ALONG, WE'LL SEE AN AGGRESSIVE APPROACH. BUT WHAT PRODUCERS REALLY NEED TO DO IS RECOGNIZE THAT THE PROBABILITY 'S JUST DECEMBER QUARTER PROBABLY IN THAT FOUR DOLLARS TO FOUR FIFTY, BUT START A FOUR TWENTY FIVE. PARTLY TALL SAILS IN THAT WINDOW BUY YOUR CALL OPTIONS NOW SING OF CONFIDENCE THE FORWARD SELL. REMEMBER LAST YEAR QUICKLY PRICES FELL OFF THE EDGE OF THE TABLE. REAL QUICK YOU MENTIONED A CURRENT FIVE MILLION LESS CORN ACRES DO YOU THINK THAT 'S REASONABLE? FOUR TO FIVE MILLION IS A REASON. WE KNOW FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT CORN. THEY'RE CORN FARMERS FIRST. I DO THINK IT 'S REASONABLE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BANKING COMMUNITY IN AND TALK TO THE DIFFERENT RESOURCES, WE'RE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT FARMERS ALREADY HAVE MADE SOME DECISIONS TO SHIFT TO BEANS BECAUSE BEANS OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY LOCK IN PRICES. MANY FARMER SHIFTED AWAY FROM FROM WEEK BECAUSE OF THE PRICE. OUT WHAT YOUR OUTLOOK ON WHEAT PRICES DO YOU THINK WE FOUND A FOUND A BOTTOM IN THAT MARKET? I DO WE'RE GONNA HAVE A LOT LESS WHEAT ACRES. GOT BAD WEATHER RIGHT NOW. YOU'RE GONNA PLANT--TALKING TO CLIENTS IN THE DAKOTAS AND THEY'RE SAYING WHEAT ACRES ARE GOING TO SOYBEANS IS COMING YEAR. THERE 'S POTENTIAL. AS THE SAME SITUATION SET UP WISE FUNDS AND MANAGE MONEY, ALL THAT STUFF. OR OTHER SHORT IN WHEAT ARE GOING TO COME BUYING WHEAT. I MEAN LIKE WHEAT ALSO. I LIKE ALL THE GRAINS. I DON'T LOOK AT ANY BEING BETTER THAN ANOTHER AT THIS POINT. I LIKE THEM ALL. SO WHAT SHOULD YOUR GAME PLAN BE ON WHEAT? WELL IF YOU OWN WHEAT,  I WOULD LOOK IT ANY  TWENTY, TWENTY FIVE SAM BRIGGS FROM A KNEE HIGH YOU GET MAYBE SELL SOME PORTS AGAINST THAT LIST FORTY FIVE DAYS LESS ALSO PUTS FIFTEEN TWENTY CENTS OUT OF MONEY. GET AN INCOME STREAM GOING FOR YOURSELF. IF YOU'RE A SPECULATOR, BUY THE MARKET RIGHT WHERE IT'S AT AND BUY A PUT AT THE SAME PRICE .IT MAY COST YOU TEN TWELVE CENTS TO DO THAT YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF UPSIDE AND VERY LIMITED DOWNSIDE. OR IF YOU WANT SOMETHING BIGGER, YOU BUY SOME OUT OF THE MONEY CALLS WITH SOME TIME. MAYBE PLAY INSPECT THE GAME WHERE YOU HAVE VERY LOW INCOME ARE VERY LOW OUTPUTS BY THE THE SPECULATOR WOULD POSSIBLY BIG RETURNS.SPEAKING OF A BULLISH STORY, MILK PRICES CLASS III MILK PRICES AND A TWO YEAR HIGH AFTER A SUMMER YOU KNOW USDA CAME OUT WITH THOSE NUMBERS THIS WEEK DO YOU DO YOU THINK WE TOPPED OUT OF THE OF THIS THIS AT THESE PRICES OR DO YOU THINK THERE'S MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL IN THIS THIS AND NOT MARKET?? THERE MAY BE MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL BUT I DON'T THINK THAT YOU NORMALLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT. A COUPLE THINGS. ONE THE DOLLAR SOFTENED THIS WEEK HAS BEEN VOLATILE BUT GENERALLY IN AN UPTREND. ITS OWN EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT IT'LL PROBABLY STAY HIGHER AS LONG AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE U S IS GONNA RAISE INTEREST RATES. THE MONEY IS GONNA COME INTO THE U S TO BUY THE U S DOLLAR. SO THAT 'S ONE ONE THEORY ON THAT. DEMAND DOESN'T SHUT OFF OVERNIGHT. IT SHUTS OFF OVER TIME. S PRODUCTION UP ABOUT TWO PERCENT THIS YEAR. EXPECT TO BE A TWO PERCENT IN THE YEAR AHEAD. NOT MILK PER COW EFFICIENCY UP BUT THAT FALL FROM KNOCKING AT PRICES MOVED HIGHER ON CONTRACTING WORLD INVENTORIES.I'VE GOTTA BELIEVE THIS BUMP IN MILK PRICES THE LAST TWO MONTHS IS GOING TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE WORLD MIGHT START TO PUT MORE INTO THE PRODUCTION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT WOULD BE MY BEST GUESS. HIGH PRICES CURE HIGH PRICES. I WOULDN'T SAY MILK PRICES ARE HIGH. BUT I'M NOT SURE DEMAND WITH A RISING DOLLAR CAN KEEP UP. WITH OUR REALLY HANDSOME REALLY GOOD THE MAN 'S STORY I'M MORE THAN IT CAN CONTINUE.WE TALK ABOUT A LOT THIS WEEK BUT I GET YOUR CLOSING THOUGHTS SO WE WILL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT WITH MARKET PRICES CONSTANTLY CHANGING, IT'S  IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE CURRENT PRICES STAND.  GET MARKET PRICES DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR  MOBILE PHONE. JUST TEXT MARKETS TO 31313 TO GET  STARTED!

MARKETS NOW
TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS MIKE FLOREZ WE START WITH YOU I WOULD SAY IF IF YOU'RE A FARMER THAT HAS CORN IN STORAGE I WOULD SELL PUTS AGAINST THAT WITH AN OPTION, FORTY FIVE DAYS OR LESS, TRY TO CREATE AN INCOME STREAM FOR YOURSELF , SO THE FIRST 10 CENT BREAK YOU GET ON CORN SELL AN OPTION, SELL A PUT, 1O CENTS, 15 CENTS OUT OF THE MONEY TRY TO TAKE IN EIGHT CENTS OR SO CONTINUALLY DO THAT CAUSE I THINK WE'RE IN A BOTTOMING OF A MARKET, I THINK WE'RE GONNA GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT EIGHTEEN MONTHS TO TWO YEARS,  SO TRY TO CREATE THE INCOME STREAM,  SPECULATORS BYY THE FUTURES AND BUY A PUT RIGHT UNDERNEATH IT ALL RIGHT THANK YOU MIKE, BRIAN I TAKE A BROADER UP LOOK AT THE YEAR AHEAD FOR CORN PRODUCERS, SOYBEAN SPRODUCERS IN PARTICULAR, IT CAN BE APPLIED TO WHEAT AS WELL, BUT  WORK ON A BALANCED APPROACH, IT'S BEEN AN ELECTION YEAR, WE TALKED ABOUT IN THE PAST WHAT HAPPENS IN ELECTION YEARS ON SPECULATION OF A NEW RESIDENT BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING FIRST OF ALL. WE TALKED ABOUT TWO THOUSAND AND EIGHT WHEN OBAMA RAN ON HOPE AND CHANGE, WELL I'VE GOT  HOPE OF BALANCE, WE'VE GOT A LOT OF GOOD THINGS THAT SHOULD PROVIDE HOPE FOR HIGHER PRICES MAY TRIM BALANCE THAT THE LAST TWO YEARS IF YOU WEREN'T THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME PRICES TOOK IT AWAY. SO SO MAKE SURE AND SELL THE RALLIES, COVER WITH CALLS, BUY PUTS ON RALLIES AND GO INTO THE SUMMER COVERED ON BOTH SIDES THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE WE APPRECIATE IT STAY WITH US JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT

JOHN’S WORLD
WE HAVE A WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR  UNDER OUR BELT,  AND WHILE SOME OF YOU MAY HAVE GIVEN UP ON THAT  NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION, OTHERS ARE STILL GOING  STRONG. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  ONE OF THE TIMEWORN TRADITIONS OF BEGINNING OF A NEW YEAR IS THE  RESOLVE TO ORGANIZE AND IMPROVE OUR LIVES. ALMOST INEVITABLY, THIS  INVOLVES MAKING A LIST. FROM THAT WE THEN SHUFFLE THOSE INTO  SOME SORT OF ORDER - MOST IMPORTANT, MOST URGENT, MOST  DESIRABLE, AND SO FORTH. I'VE TRIED THIS SCHEME A FEW TIMES, AND  THIS IS WHAT I'VE DISCOVERED ABOUT SUCH COMPREHENSIVE LISTS. FIRST, THEY CAN GET REALLY LONG. WHETHER IT'S GOALS FOR THE NEW  YEAR, PROBLEMS TO BE SOLVED OR HABITS WE WANT TO FORM OR BREAK,  ALL OF OUR LIVES CAN GENERATE A DAUNTING NUMBER OF SEPARATE  STEPS THAT NEED TO BE ACCOMPLISHED. EACH DETAIL WE ADD CAN  TRIGGER ANOTHER RELATED ITEM. FROM EXERCISING MORE TO CHANGING  OUR PASSWORDS MORE OFTEN, THE PROCESS OF UPGRADING OUR LIVES  CAN GET COMPLICATED QUICKLY. SECOND, THESE LISTS SELDOM LAST VERY LONG. IT'S NOT MUCH FUN TO  PULL THEM OUT AND COMPARE THE ITEMS COMPLETED WITH THOSE LEFT  TO DO. SO THEY TEND TO LANGUISH IN OUR DESK DRAWERS OR UNOPENED  IN OUR COMPUTER AND PHONE. THIRD, THINGS CHANGE IN OUR LIFE, SO MANY OF THE ITEMS BECOME  IRRELEVANT OR EVEN UNDESIRABLE. PREDICTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE  YEAR WHAT WE NEED OR SHOULD DO ISN'T EASY. IT MAY EVEN HARDEN  US TO CHANGES NEEDED LATER ON DUE NEW CIRCUMSTANCES THAT  ARISE UNEXPECTEDLY. SO AS I'VE GOTTEN OLDER, I DECIDED TO CENTER ON A NEW YEAR'S  RESOLUTION, AND A SHORT-RANGE ONE AT THAT. YOU HAVE HEARD THAT  RUNNING GAG, "YOU HAD ONE JOB…" AND THAT'S EXACTLY HOW I  APPROACH SELF-IMPROVEMENT. SOMETHING I CAN DO IN THE NEAR  FUTURE, AND PROMPTLY CROSS IT OFF. IN FACT, I'VE ALREADY COMPLETED  MY NEW YEAR'S LIST AS I SPEAK. IT WAS NOT A TRIVIAL UNDERTAKING,  BUT IT IS DONE. SO WHILE MANY OTHERS ARE FRETTING ABOUT 2017, MY  CONSCIENCE IS CLEAR FOR THE NEXT 11 ½ MONTHS.   THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
STILL TO COME, WHAT'S THE CHICAGO  FEDERAL RESERVE'S OUTLOOK ON THE AG ECONOMY?  THATS OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.  THE CHEVY SILVERADO IS THE OFFICIAL NEWS  GATHERING VEHICLE FOR FARM JOURNAL TELEVISION. 

HEADLINES
U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY  SILVERADO. 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.> WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD. CALIFORNIA IS GETTING HAMMERED WITH MORE THAN  10 FEET OF SNOW, BUT IS IT A DROUGHT BUSTER? COULD TODAY'S FARM ECONOMY SEE A REPEAT OF HTE  1980S? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. AND JOHN PHIPPS LOOKS AT THE REAL COST OF  INFLATION

IMPROVING CALIFORNIA DROUGHT
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, THERE'S  OPTIMISM IN  CALIFORNIA OVER FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS IN THE  DROUGHT AS STORM SYSTEMS THIS WEEK COULD DROP  MORE THAN 10 FEET OF SNOW.  FORECASTERS CALLING FOR AS MUCH AS 15 FEET OF  SNOW IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUING WINTER  STORM WARNINGS IN MAJOR AREAS LIKE LAKE TAHOE,  AND ALL THE WAY FROM YOSEMITE TO  KINGS CANYON.  LOWER ELEVATIONS SEEING RAIN AND EVEN POSSIBLE  FLOODING.  A WET OCTOBER IN CALIFORNIA MEANS THE STATE'S  WATER RESERVOIRS ARE AT 98-PERCENT OF HISTORIC AVERAGE. NOW, PRIOR TO THE MASSIVE SNOW THIS WEEK, SURVEYORS PLUNGED A POLE INTO THE  SIERRA NEVADA SNOWPACK TUESDAY AND TOOK THE  FIRST MANUAL MEASUREMENT OF WHAT'S CALLED THE  WET SEASON OUT WEST. THIS SNOWPACK PROVIDES ABOUT A THIRD OF  CALIFORNIA'S AVAILABLE WATER FOR DRINKING AND  FARMING WHEN IT MELTS THIS SPRING. CALIFORNIA'S DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES  FOUND WATER CONTENT IS ABOUT HALF OF NORMAL AT THIS LOCATION NEAR LAKE TAHOE. < FRANK GEHRKE, CHIEF OF THE CALIFORNIA SNOW SURVEY PROGRAM: "WHILE THAT SEEMS PERHAPS A LITTLE GLOOMY, KEEP IN MIND THAT WE  HAD PRETTY MUCH BARE GROUND HERE, THERE WAS A FEW PATCHES OF  SNOW AND MOST OF THE SNOW THAT WE MEASURED TODAY CAME DOWN  THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT'S CONTINUING TO COME DOWN."> THIS LOCATION GETS MEASURED MANUALLY ONCE A  MONTH. BUT THE STATE ALSO HAS ELECTRONIC  MEASUREMENTS AT 105 LOCATIONS IN THE  MOUNTAIN  RANGE TO GET A MORE ACCURATE VIEW OF  SNOWPACK. . THAT SNOW ONLY ADDING TO RELIEF IN THE LATEST  DROUGHT MONITOR. IT SHOWS  DROUGHT LOSSENING ITS GRIP IN THE  SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS RESIDENTS SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  SOME  LEVEL OF DROUGHT NOW CONSUMING 81  PERCENT OF HTE STATE... THREE MONTHS AGO, 100  PERCENT OF THE STATE WAS DRY. 

SOUTHEAST DROUGHT IMPROVES
AND MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS  IN THE SOUTHEAST.  BUT THAT CAME AS A PRICE, WITH SEVERE STORMS  PUMMELING THE SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS WEEK.  LOOK AT THIS FOOTAGE WITH FLOODS SPREADING  ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA MONDAY  AND TUESDAY.  THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING TEH MOST  SEVERE LEVEL OF DROUGHT WIPED OUT FROM THE  RAINS. AND THEN D3, OR EXTREME DROUGHT, IMPROVING 13  POINTS. 

STRONGER DICAMBA RESTRICTIONS
ARKANSAS GOVERNOR WANTS STRONGER  RESTRICTIONS ON DICAMBA. GOVERNOR ASA HUTCHINSON APPROVING THE STATE  PLANT BOARD'S PROPOSED RULE CHANGES TO ADD  MORE RESTRICTIOSN ON THE CHEMSTIRY.  THE PLAN PLACES LIMITS ON VARIOUS TYPES OF  DICAMBA AND REQURES TRAINING FOR ANYONE USING  IT ON GENETICALLY MODIFIED SEEDS.  THE NEW FORMULATION OF DICAMBA APPROVED BY  EPA LATE LAST YEAR FOR OVER THE TOP USE.  DICAMBA IS AN OLD CHEMICAL, BUT THE RECENT  CONTROVERSY IS OVER DRIFT, KILLING NON-RESISTANT  PLANTS.  GOOD NEWS FOR PEANUT FARMERS.

PEANUT GUIDELINES
NEW GUIDELINES  RELEAESD THIS WEEK SUGGEST BABIES SHOULD EAT  PEANUT CONTAINING FOODS EARLIER FOR A LOWER  CHANCE OF BECOMING ALLERGIC.THE NATIONAL INSTITUES OF HEALTH SUGGESTS  BABIES START EATING THOSE FOODS AROUND 6  MONTHS OF AGE, WITH SOME AS EARLY AS 4 MONTHS. 

SAVING MULEFOOT PIGS
A WOMAN IN MAINE IS ON A MISSION TO SAVE A RARE  PIG BREED. SUSAN FRANK  RAISES MULEFOOT PIGS, A BREED ON  THE VERGE OF EXTICTION A DECADE AGO. TODAY, ONLY  ABOUT 500 MULEFOOT PIGS EXIST IN THE U-S.  FRANK IS USING A 50 THOUSAND DOLLAR GRANT FROM  USDA TO HELP PROMOTE THE PIGS.  "I KNOW IT SOUNDS WEIRD, BUT ONE OF THE THINGS IS YOU HAVE TO EAT  A RARE BREED TO HELP THEM COME BACK. IF THEY'RE NOT POPULAR, IF  PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO BUY THEM, NOBODY IS GOING TO GROW THEM." FRANK PLANS TO ORGANIZE A FOOD FESTIVAL BASED  AROUND MULEFOOT PRODUCTS TO HELP BOOST THEIR  REPUTATION. THIS TYPE OF PIG IS SLOW GROWING AND PRODUCES  SMALL LITTERS. BUT THE FACT IT IS A HIGH YIELDER OF  BOTH MEAT AND LARD MAKES IT APPEALING TO  SMALLER FARMERS. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER-RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, RAINS AND SNOWS PRODUCING  SOME MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LATEST DROUGHT  MONITOR.  THANKS TYNE.  YES IT DID.  ITS IMPROVE THINGS, CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND I THINK WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT MONTH.  BUT THERE'S THE JET STREAM AS WE START THE WEEK.  IT'S DEFINITELY GOING TO BY VERY COLD IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  AND THEN YOU CAN SEE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THAT ONE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  OTHERWISE, IT 'S STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE BIT.  WE GO MORE ZONAL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.AND THEN THE TROUGH DIGS IN OUT WEST.  AND THAT WILL BE SOME VERY COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. AND THAT SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD- HOW FAR EAST THAT COLD AIR COMES NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK STILL UP IN THE AIR- COMPUTER MODELS GO BACK AND FORTH ON THAT ONE.  THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES, I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL WESTERN LAKES,  NORTHERN PLAINS NORTHWEST EVEN CENTRAL LOWER ROCKIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE GULF COAST INTO TEXAS.  PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL,  ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST, AND BELOW NORMAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD.  TYNE?

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
USDA'S LATEST FORCAST POINTS TO A THIRD STRAIGHT  YEAR OF DECLINING NET FARM INCOME FOR 2016.      WITH BOTH NET FARM INCOME AND NET CASH FARM  INCOME FALLING BELOW THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE. ECONOMISTS ARE WATCHING THE NUMBERS FROM THE  FARM ECONOMY CLOSELY...WONDERING IF THIS LATEST  DOWNTURN IN PRICES WILL SEND THE INDUSTRY INTO A  SPIRAL SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE SAW IN THE 1980'S. CLINTON GRIFFITHS RECENTLY ATTENDED A FORUM AT  THE CHICAGO FEDERAL RESERVE THAT SOUGHT TO  ANSWER THAT QUESTION. WHETHER YOU'RE HARVESTING GRAINS, ...MILKING COWS  OR FEEDING CATTLE, 2016 HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE.  PRICES ACROSS THE ENTIRE SECTOR SPENT MUCH OF  THE YEAR IN THE TANK, EQUIPMENT SALES WERE  SPOTTY AT BEST AND FARMERS PULLED BACK ON  INPUTS WHERE THEY COULD. AS WE LOOKED AT 2016 WE HEARD A LOT OF ANECDOTES AND  SAW IN THE DATA MORE IN THE WAY OF CARRY-OVER DEBT GOING INTO  2017. AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEBT BEING RESTRUCTURED. 38:26  FARM ECONOMISTS ARE KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON  AG DEBT-- THE PROJECTED 2016 DEBT TO ASSET RATIO  IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 13 PERCENT. IN THE MID  80'S IT WAS OVER 20 PERCENT. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FARM SECTOR FOR THE U.S. OVERALL AND  WE GO BACK AND LOOK AT AGRIGATE DATA GOING BACK TO THE 1980'S  WE KNOW THAT THERE WERE A LOT OF BANKRUPTCIES AND IT OCCURED AT  A TIME WHEN THE FARM SECTOR HAD A DEBT TO ASSET RATIO OF JUST  ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR JUST OVER. 41:36  BUT SO FAR ECONOMISTS SAY THIS ISN'T THE 1980'S.  THINK THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  NOW AND WHERE WE WERE IN THE 1980'S. IN A COUPLE DIFFERENT  WAY...ONE WE HAD A LOT OF DEBT THAT WAS HELD BY INDIVIDUALS OR  FOLKS OUTSIDE OF THE LENDING INSTITUTIONS IN THE 1980'S. 19:55  AND THOSE FAMILY AND FRIEND LENDERS WERE OFTEN  MAKING DECISIONS WITH THEIR HEARTS INSTEAD OF  OFF A BUSINESS PLAN. HOSE WERE FOLKS YOU KNOW WOULD KIND OF LET YOU DRAG ON  OR HANG ON...AS OPPOSED TO NOW IT'S FARM CREDIT OR COMMERCIAL  BANKS ARE REALLY THE HOLDERS OF FARM DEBT AT THIS TIME. 20:05 BUT AS YOUNG PUTS IT...THERE ARE CLOUDS ON THE  HORIZON.  THE NUMBER OF LOANS OR THE PROPORTION OF LOANS WHERE THE  COLLATERAL THAT WE'VE USED TO SECURE THAT NOTE WITH HAS BEEN THE  LAND OF THE FARM ITSELF. AND THAT TOOK A VERY SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN  2016 AND THAT KIND OF CONCERNS ME.  21:07 SO TO THE EXTENT THAT FARMLAND HOLDS UPS PRETTY WELL THAT  CAN HELP SOFTEN SOME OF THE DOWNTURN OBVIOUSLY IF WE WERE TO  SEE PRESSURE IN THE LAND MARKET IF WE WERE TO SEE MORE SIGNS OF  FORCED SALES AND IF WERE TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE LAND MARKET WAS  STARTING TO SLIP MORE THEN THAT WOULD LEAVE ONE WITH A MORE  PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK GOING FORWARD. JUST LOOKING AT IOWA, A RECENT SURVEY OF LAND  VALUES,  FOUND THAT FARMLAND PRICES WERE DOWN  AGAIN IN 2016...OFF NEARLY 6 PERCENT.  THIS REPRESENTS THE FARMLAND PRICES HAVE BEEN DECLINING 3  YEARS IN A ROW...THS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE  1980'S FARM CRISIS. FARMLAND CONSISTENTLY ACCOUNS FOR 80-85 PERCENT OF ALL FARM  ASSETS (TAKE OUT MIDDLE)  AND ITS OFTEN THE BIGGEST CHUNK OF FARM  DEBT AS WELL. WHEN YOU START FALLING BACK ON THE LAND IF I'M USING MY  LAND AS THE REASON TO GET THE LOAN THEN AGAIN ITS NOT BECAUSE I  HAVE A GREAT BUSINESS PLAN TO BACK IT UP. 21:16 THESE ECONOMIST SAY WHILE SO FAR--THE CRISIS  REMAINS OFF SHORE-- RISING INTEREST RATES, LOW  COMMODITY PRICES AND THE INCREASE IN LAND AS  COLLATERAL COULD COMBINE TO PUSH FARMERS ON  THIN MARGINS--INTO TROUBLE AND NEAR THE 20  PERCENT DEBT TO ASSET RATIO.  HOW SOON AND HOW  MANY...YOUNG SAYS HE'S WATCHING THE FIRST  QUARTER RESULTS. WHEN WE GET OUT INTO FIRST QUARTER OF 2017 WE'RE GOING TO  HAVE A NUMBER OF FSA LOANS COME DUE// AND AGAIN FSA TENDS  TO BE THE LENDER OF THE LAST RESORT. IF WE GET A NUMBER OF THOSE  THAT DEFALT OR GO NOT SERVICED THAT'S GOING TO BE A INDICATOR THAT  ITS A GROWING CONCERN. 21:43 WHILE THESE ECONOMIST ARE RAISING THE WARNING  FLAGS--NONE OF THEM SAY ITS TIME TO GIVE UP OR  GET OUT.  THINGS ARE IN FIRM HANDS BUT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SOME  FOLKS THAT PROBABLY ARE GOING TO ROLL BACK THE SIZE OF THEIR  OPERATION THIS NEXT AND MAYBE A FEW THAT WON'T BE FARMING BUT  THE VAST MAJORITY OUT THERE ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO BE MORE  EFFICIENT AND BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY IN 2017. 26:48 REPORTING FOR AGDAY I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THANKS, CLINTON. AND LOOKING ABROAD, ECONOMISTS  EXPECT BRAZIL'S FARM ECONOMY TO REBOUND IN 2017.  THAT'S LARGELY THANKS TO A RECORD HARVEST PUSHING UP GRAIN EXPORTS AND EXPANDING THE  COUNRY'S LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPS.  DOES FREE STUFF CAUSE INFLATION? 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
ONE OF THE BASIC PRINCIPLES YOU LEARN IN  ECONOMICS CLASS IS THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A  FREE LUNCH. CAN THIS BE APPLIED TO INFLATION?  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  ERIC SMASSANOW FROM BALLSTON SPA, NEW YORK HAS AN  INTERESTING COMMENT ON INFLATION IN DIFFERENT SECTORS: "YOUR TALK ON INFLATION WAS INTERESTING. THE GRAPH MADE IT CLEAR  WHAT AREAS OF THE ECONOMY ARE ON THE RISE. THE COSTS ARE GOING  UP TO A LARGE DEGREE BECAUSE WE ARE SUBSIDIZING THOSE WITH  LESS. HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION AND HOUSING. HHS, DEPT OF ED AND HUD. THESE ARE A BIG DRIVER TO COSTS  GOING UP. WHEN LESS OF US PAY AND MORE OF US GO, THE PRICE OF  THAT ITEM GOES UP TO THOSE PAYING." THANKS FOR WATCHING AND WRITING, ERIC. THE IDEA OF OTHER PEOPLE  GETTING FREE STUFF FROM THE GOVERNMENT IS A BIG COMPLAINT, BUT AS  FAR AS INFLATION GOES, IT'S MORE COMPLICATED. COLLEGE COSTS DESERVE A WHOLE AGSPLAINER OF THEIR OWN, BUT IN  ONE SENSE YOU ARE CORRECT. ONE BIG REASON EXPERTS THINK COLLEGE  COSTS ARE RISING RAPIDLY IS THE STUDENT LOAN PROGRAM. THIS IS NOT  EXACTLY FREE STUFF - JUST A LOAN GUARANTEE, BUT STUDENT LOAN DEBT IS  NOW LARGER THAT CREDIT CARD OR AUTO DEBT. ALSO, HIGHER EDUCATION  HAS VERY LOW OR EVEN NEGATIVE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH - PROFESSORS  TEACH ABOUT THE SAME NUMBER OF STUDENTS EVERY YEAR, FOR  EXAMPLE. THAT SAID, A FOUR-YEAR DEGREE IS STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT  IN MOST CASES. I'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT ANOTHER TIME. NOW FOR MEDICAL CARE GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT ACTUALLY HOLDS  INFLATION DOWN. IF YOU COUNT MEDICARE AND MEDICAID AS FREE STUFF,  THIS CHART SHOWS HOW PRIVATE INSURANCE HEALTH EXPENDITURES HAVE LONG BEEN RISING FASTER THAN GOVERNMENT-PAID. SIMILARLY, HOUSING INFLATION CANNOT BE BLAMED ENTIRELY OR EVEN  MOSTLY ON GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS. IN 2015, THE ENTIRE HUD  BUDGET WAS ABOUT 45 BILLION DOLLARS. BUT US HOUSING SALES THAT  YEAR WERE NEARLY ONE AND A HALF TRILLION DOLLARS. EVEN IF ALL THE  HUD DOLLARS WERE SIMPLY GIVEN AWAY - WHICH THEY WEREN'T - THEY  WOULD HAVE AMOUNTED TO A LITTLE OVER 3% OF THE MARKET - NOT  ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST HOUSING INFLATION. ECONOMISTS  CONSIDER FACTORS LIKE TAX INCENTIVES, LOW INTEREST RATES, AND  ZONING REGULATIONS TO BE MAJOR CAUSES OF RISING HOUSING COSTS. FINALLY, IF GIVING FREE STUFF TO POOR PEOPLE IS A MAJOR CAUSE OF  INFLATION, WHY HASN'T THE 80-BILLION-DOLLAR SNAP PROGRAM CAUSED  ABOVE AVERAGE FOOD INFLATION? THE FREE STUFF ARGUMENT SEEMS LOGICAL UNTIL YOU LOOK AT THE BIG  PICTURE AND DO THE MATH. IT'S JUST NOT THAT SIMPLE.

TEASE
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, JUST EMAIL  JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.  ALSO, DON'T FORGET THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IS  COMING UP... JANUARY 24 THROUGH THE 27 IN CHICAGO  ILLINOIS. THE THEME IS KEEP CALM, FARM ON, WITH  SPEAKERS TACKING TOPICS TAX PLANNING, RISK  MANAGEMENT, WEATHER TRENDS AND MORE.  WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL HEAD OUT WEST TO  CHECK IN WITH BAXTER BLACK. 

BAXTER BLACK
IT WAS ANOTHER WILD WEATHER WEEK FOR MANY OF  YOU. BUT WEATHER IS JUST ONE OF THOSE TOPICS  WHERE OPINIONS DIFFER BETWEEN THOSE LIVING IN  THE CITY AND THOSE ON THE FARM. BAXTER BLACK HAS  MORE AS WE HEAD OUT WEST.  ONE THING THAT SEPARATES FARMERS FROM THEIR CITY BROTHERS IS THE  WEATHER HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD THE LOCAL ANCHORMAN  SAY GOSH TIMMY THAT 'S REALLY GOOD NEWS I'M SURE GETTING TIRED OF  THIS RAIN WELL THE BIG CITY WEATHERMAN MAP HAS A YELLOW SUN WITH  A SMILEY FACE THAT COVERS THE LOUISIANA PURCHASE HE REALIZED  HOW FAR FROM MAJOR SOME PARTS OF OUR CIVILIZATION HAVE BEEN  REMOVED BUT SOMEWHERE OUT BEYOND THE CATTLE GUARD FARMER 'S STANDING AND AT THE EDGE OF HIS WHEAT FIELD WATCHING  THE RAIN AND SMILING FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE STUDENTS OF THE  SKY THEY SPEND A LIFETIME LOOKING FOR A BLUE HORIZON OR A BLACK  CLOUD BRINGING THEM LUCK,  SOMETIMES BAD SOMETIMES THEY WIN  THEY SMELL THE WEATHER CHANGES THEY ARE LOOKING AT IT THROUGH A  WINDOW THEY ARE TRULY PART OF THEIR ENVIRONMENT AND MAYBE THAT  'S WHY WE DON'T TAKE IT FOR GRANTED.  I'VE BEEN OUT ON J P POINT ONE  FOR SPRING AFTER THE FALL THE WATER WAS SO THICK THIS FISH COULD WALK  THE ROAD WAS WASHED OUT ALL THE WAY BUT STILL I STRUGGLED ON I JUST  DROVE MY PICK UP TRUCK FROM ROCK TO ROCK.  ONE TIME UP AT GROUSE  CREEK IT HAILED ALL ONE DAY AND THEN I SWEAR WHERE IT SETTLED IN TO  SNOW WE HAD A BIG TUNNEL TO PUT COWS IN THE SHOOT THEN TODAY I FROZE OFF ALL MY TOES AND THEN DOWN AT THE BEAR  RANCH THE FOG WAS SO THICK WE DIDN'T NEED A FENCE TO HOLD THEM  IN.  WE GATHERED UP SOME TWO BY EIGHTS AND NAILED THEM TO THE  AIR. SECURLY ON THE END.  THE CLIPPER FLAPPS OR RAFTER TEE I CANT'  REMEMBER WHICH THE WEATHER TURNED OFF MIGHTY COLD INDEED THE  WIND COME BLOWING ON UP AND GOT THAT WHIPPIN CHILL, RIGHT DOWN  TO MINUS NINETY NINE DEGREES BUT IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A HOLE TO  SEND  SOMEONE YOU TRY THE SHEEP CORRALS BY THE CAT CREEK BY THE  RISE.  ITS THE ONLY PLACE I EVER STOOD IN MUD UP TO MY KNEES AND  HAD THE DAD GUM DUST BLOW IN MY EYE THIS IS BAXTER BLACK OUT  THERE THANKS, BAXTER. YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER ONLINE, AT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. WHEN WE COME  BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS THE STORY OF A FARMALL  M 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGH TOT YOU BY MACHIENRY  PETE. THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT.  WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE'RE OFF TO NORTHEASTERN  ILLINOIS TO MEET THE OWNER OF A CLASSIC RED.  ALLEN KLINE-ERT IS PROUD OF THIS FARMALL M.  HIS FATHER PURCHASED  IT BRAND NEW IN 1951 AND HE HAS WORKED HARD TO GET IT SHINING LIKE NEW.   WELL THIS IS MY M.  MY DAD BOUGHT A BRAND NEW IN NINETEEN FIFTY  ONE I DID THAT THREE FIFTY FIRST AND I WAS IN A LOCAL RESTAURANT OR MY  BROTHER AND I SAID BOY DARRYL, I'D SURE LIKE TO FIND MY DAD'S M HE  BOUGHT NEW AND HE SAID WELL YOU DUMMY, IT'S IN OUR COUSINS  SHED, IT'S BEEN THERE TWENTY YEARS OR SO SO I HUSTLED OVER AND  GOT HIM AND HE GIVE ME THE M AND I GOT A LOT OF WORK IN THIS ONE.   SHE WAS REALLY HE WAS REALLY BAD MOTOR WAS FROZE UP EVERYTHING  WE JUST, THERE WAS NO OIL IT WAS CLOSE TO TAR DRIPPING OUT OF THE  REAR END I REDID EVERYTHING TOOK HER DOWN A BARE METAL SAND  BLASTERED HER AND CLEANED HER UP VERY PROUD OF IT.  IT'S A KLINART  TRACTOR AND IT CANT EVER BE SOLD.  ITS GOT TO GO TO EITHER MY SONS  OR MY NEPHEWS OR MY COUSIN SOMEBODY 'S GOT TO OWN THIS TRACTOR  WILL WE HOPE THEY NEVER SELL IT AND I ENJOY IT, I TAKE IT ON TRACTOR  PULLS, I GOT FOURTH LAST WEEK WITH AN AD FOR LOCAL COUNTY FAIR O THEY  DIDN'T BELIEVE I CAN DO THAT GOOD OF WORK I DID HAVE A GUY  PAINT  THE HOOD AND THAT FILLED TANK BUT I DID EVERYTHING ELSE AGAIN I I  DON'T KNOW IF I CAN GET THAT NICE OF A PAINT JOB ON IT BUT THAT WAS  OUR MAIN TRACTOR BACK THEN AND PLANNING, CORN PICKER HUNG ON IT,  THREE BOTTOM PLOW, DID THE PLANTING. DID THE DISKING AND FIELD  CULTIVATING AND THE LITTLE WD DID THE PLANTING.  THAT AND SHE DID ALL  THE CULTIVATING AND DID EVERYTHING.  I MEAN SHE WAS OUR BIG MAIN  TRACTOR.   AND I WAS VERY HAPPY WITH HER. THEY'RE A LOT OF MONEY  LATER SHE 'S MINE BUT I'M VERY PROUD TO SIT ON THE SEAT AND DRIVE IT 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO TO PURE  AIR BAPTIST CHURCH OF NOVINGER, MISSOURI. THE  CONGREGATIONS SAYS THEY ARE AN OLD FASIONED,  CONSERVATIVE, BIBLE BELIEVING CHURCH, PRAISING  GOD THROUGH SINGING TRADITIONAL HYMNS. OUR  THANKS TO HAROLD HARDEN FOR SHARING THEIR  STORY.     AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - CROPWACH  IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL, MIKE IT WAS SO COLD THIS WEEK, NOT A LOT OF FIELD WORKING GOING ON, BUT SOME ARE STILL WORKING.  TRUCKIN' IN THE SNOW AND COLD. BRIAN SCOTT WAS  STILL DOING WORK, DESPITE THE COLD. IT WAS 10  DEGREES OUT, BUT HE SAID THAT'S NOT STOPPING HIM  FROM HAULING GRAIN THIS WEEK.  AND THEY EVEN SAW SOME SNOW IN KENTUCKY. QUINT  POTTINGER SAYS HE WAS WORKING TO KEEP THE  GRANARY WORKING AND THE GRAIN MOVING. MASSIVE AMOUNT SOF SNOW IN CALFORNIA THIS WEEK. GOOD NEWS. BUT IS THAT ENOUGH TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER? I DO'T KNWO ABOUT THAT. BUT OVISOULY THEY USE IT FOR NEXT YEAR'S CROP. SO IT'S A BETETER SUTAITON FOR THEM. ABSOLUTELY.   AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND  COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US AT U-S FARM REPORT,  I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK  YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO  JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK  TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND,  EVERYONE.  HIGH STRENGTH STEEL FOR HIGH STRENGTH DEPENDABILITY. <THE CHEVY SILVERADO IS THE OFFICIAL NEWS-GATHERING VEHICLE FOR  U.S. FARM REPORT.>

 

 

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